U.S. Gulf:
NOLA granular urea barges saw a significant boost this
week, firming to $363-$390/st FOB from the week-ago $340-$390/st FOB. The
higher end of the range reflected barges that were ready to move, while the
lower end represented May. A moving barge on its way upriver was reported at
$405/st FOB.
Another run-up in corn prices, along with possibly higher
prices in the Indian tender, were seen as reasons for the uptick.
Eastern Cornbelt:
Urea
prices were steady at $410-$430/st FOB in the Eastern Cornbelt, with the low
confirmed at Ottawa, Ill., and the higher end at Cincinnati, Ohio, and other
Ohio River terminals.
Western Cornbelt:
Urea remained at $420-$440/st FOB in the Western Cornbelt in late April, with the low reported at St. Louis, Mo., and the high at Port Neal, Iowa.
California:
Urea pricing in California remained at $515-$520/st FOB port terminals for April tons. No current rail-DEL prices were reported in late April, with movement limited to small quantities.
Pacific Northwest:
The urea market was steady at $475/st FOB Rivergate, Ore., and
$480/st FOB Aurora, Ore., with delivered tons ranging from $490-$510/st in the
Pacific Northwest, depending on location.
Western Canada:
The urea market was pegged at
C$655-$680/mt FOB and C$670-$690/mt DEL in Western Canada, depending on
location.
India:
Soon
after MMTC called its tender, rumors on the other side of the globe circulated
that COVID-19 problems might force the tender to be scrapped, or at least
delayed.
The
global urea market moved through the week as if nothing will stop the opening
of the tender documents on May 4, as planned by MMTC. The big issue facing a
timely closure of the tender, however, remains the status of the COVID-19
shutdowns.
The
Indian Department of Fertilizer and MMTC offices are all closed until May 3 as
variants of the virus ravage the country. Sources said there are a number of
unconfirmed reports that many in these two agencies and the main banks have
been sidelined by the virus. No one is sure how these illnesses will affect the
ability of MMTC to open and evaluate the tender offers, nor how the department
and banks will be able to process the necessary award making process.
Some
international traders expressed confidence that because of its long history
dealing with international urea tenders, MMTC officials will be able to process
the offers and awards without too much difficulty.
For
traders offering into the tender, sources said they will need to secure their
tons from China before the weekend. China will close on May 1-3 to celebrate
International Workers Day. Office and factory workers are not expected to be
back in their work units until May 5, after the tender closes.
The
total tonnage expected in the tender will depend on the price. Sources gave
ranges from $360/mt CFR to the current high price of $380/mt CFR. Even if the
price is at or close to the $380/mt CFR level, sources said MMTC will need to
take at least 1.2 million mt just to make up for the deficit from the last
tender and to make sure farmers have what they need going into the season.
The
tender provides for an extended shipping window. Usually, the period is about
one month from the closing of the tender. This time the shipping deadline is June
28, about six weeks from the closing. The extra time could allow for more tons
to be purchased. Some traders said they could see as many as 2 million mt being
purchased if the right price is achieved. A more likely outcome, said sources, are
purchases of 1.2-1.6 million mt.
Another
major factor that could affect the final purchases is the availability of
vessels. While the balance of ships in the area has returned to more normal
levels, the COVID situation in India could cause some vessel owners to refuse
to send their ships there. Sources said owners might be concerned that after
the ship empties its urea at the Indian port and takes on another cargo, it
could be quarantined for an extended time in the next port of call.
The
uncertainty related to COVID and fluctuations in oil prices have impacted shipping
costs. As the week opened, sources said the cost of moving 45,000-50,000 mt
from China to East Coast India was $21/mt. By the end of the week that price
had jumped $5/mt, with sources saying even higher prices might be expected next
week.
China:
Prices
strengthened following the announcement of the MMTC/India urea tender, and with
news that some domestic demand remains.
Prilled
urea remains priced at $335-$340/mt FOB, but with most of the business focused
closer to the $340/mt mark. Granular urea moved up, with sources reporting that
a small cargo of 6,000-8,000 mt was sold to a South Korean buyer at $348/mt
FOB. At the same time, there were reports of a deal at $350/mt FOB for an
Australian buyer.
Sources
said the domestic demand is waning, but not enough to counter the upward
pressure from the international market. Traders said they found themselves
competing with domestic traders still looking for tons to ship inland well into
June. The domestic demand is expected to ease off by July, leaving only
offshore sales as the target for producers.
Traders
looking at the Indian tender said they expect to see 10 to 12 vessels coming
out of China. The extended shipping window might even make another several cargoes
possible.
Fluctuating
freight rates from China to East Coast India have made long-term planning difficult.
One trader said his logistics office has had to change its estimate of freight
costs almost hourly. The price moved up $5/mt this week, to $26/mt for a trip
that was less than $20/mt just a few months ago.
Indonesia:
Selling
tenders were called in an effort to find out where prices are. Usually in the
Indonesian tenders the seller will set a reserve price. The most recent tender
did not include this feature.
A
Kaltim tender for 45,000 mt of granular urea closed on April 29. The highest
bid came from Gavilon at $350.50/mt FOB for only 25,000 mt, sources said. At
the time, traders figured Kaltim might reject this bid because it was not for
the full amount. In the end, however, Gavilon won the award.
One
trader said the driving factor in accepting the higher bid for fewer tons may
have been that the other bids for the full 45,000 mt topped out at $331/mt FOB.
By accepting the Gavilon bid, said the source, Kaltim allowed for a new price
mark higher than the previous sale.
Another
tender for 45,000 mt showed only bids at $333/mt and $334/mt FOB. In light of
the Gavilon deal, sources said the seller scrapped this auction.Sources
had described these offers as “beauty contests” because there was no guidance from
the producer as to pricing.
For
traders, the events were seen as efforts to determine where the market is
sitting now and where it is going. The prices, with the exception of the
Gavilon bid, all reflected a softer level for Indonesian product.
South
Korea:
Namhae
closes a tender on April 30 for 10,000 mt of granular urea. The source will most
likely be China. A recent sale into South Korea of smaller tonnage showed a
netback of $348/mt FOB.
Middle
East:
Prices
are holding steady only because of a lack of material for spot sales. The paper
market is showing softer prices in the coming months, with May pegged at
$342.50/mt FOB and June at $335/mt FOB.
There is talk that a trader closed a deal at $315/mt FOB, but many in the industry have discounted that rumor. If true, it would represent a significant drop in price from the most recent $340s/mt FOB level.
Some
extra urea is expected in the market soon. The SAFCO IV plant has returned to
production after an unscheduled technical shutdown. Sources said production
will allow for some added supplies in the Arab Gulf market.
International
traders are beginning to look at the new Dangote plant in Nigeria. Depending on
where the company offers tons to offshore buyers, the Arab Gulf and North
Africa producers could be facing new competition.
For
now, the main focus of the Dangote plant seems to be split between the domestic
market and Brazil. Shipments to Brazil may be problematic until the draught
levels of the Nigeria port facilities can be fully explored. If tons do flow
from Nigeria to Brazil, the business could disrupt sales from Qatar and Saudi Arabia,
totaling about 2 million mt.
Sources
reported that OMIFCO is working with its commercial arm, OQ Supply and Trading,
to move 1 million mt of urea per year. The deal is a three-year offtake
agreement that will make the urea available to the international market for
sale around the world.
The
joint venture company in Oman stopped sending urea to India at favorable rates
when the two sides could not come to an agreement on terms. Following the
collapse of talks, OMIFCO signed deals with international traders to move the
rest of their 2020 tons. Sources reported the last of the material under those
deals was offered in the RCF urea tender last month.
Thailand:
First-quarter
imports of urea were down 14 percent this year, according to Trade Data Monitor, to 345,000 mt from 400,000
mt during the same period in 2020.March imports of 100,000 mt were also
down from the March 2020 total of 116,000 mt.
Brazil:
Urea
prices edged up in Brazil as news of the Indian tender traveled around the
globe. Sources now report the Paranagua price at $355-$380/mt CFR.
The
price increase comes even as buyers are arguing demand is so low that the
prices should be falling. As the week closed, however,
sources reported a sale of 5,000 mt of granular urea to a Brazilian buyer at
$385/mt CFR for June shipment, moving the range up further.
Sources
put the Rondonopolis price at $485-$510/mt FOB ex-warehouse. At the same time,
however, the price at Sorriso came down to $444-$505/mt FOB ex-warehouse. The
barter rates at Rondonopolis and Sorriso for 1 mt of urea is now pegged at 65
bags of corn, down from 71 bags last week.
|
Brazil Urea Prices
|
|
Terminal/City
|
US$/mt FOB ex-warehouse
|
|
Week ending 4/23
|
Week Ending 04/30
|
|
Rondonopolis
|
474-520
|
485-510
|
|
Sorriso
|
480-533
|
444-505
|