All posts by mickeybarb@charter.net

BHP Jansen Remains on Track for Mid-Year FID; Shafts Project 91 Percent Complete

BHP Ltd., Melbourne, said in its nine-months operational review to March 31 released this week that its Jansen Stage 1 potash project in Saskatchewan, Canada, remains on track to be presented to the BHP Board of Directors for a Final Investment Decision (FID) in the middle of the 2021 calendar year.

The company reported the current investment program to complete the shafts at Jansen is now 91 percent complete, up from 89 percent in January (GM Jan. 22, p. 31). The program has a total investment budget of US$ 2.972 billion.

Stage 1, should it go ahead, will require another US$5.3-$5.7 billion to be completed, according to BHP, and would provide 4.3-4.5 million mt/y of potassium chloride production capacity.

In February, CEO Mike Henry was reported to have brought in external consultants to review all aspects of the Jansen potash project ahead of the upcoming FID decision, according to a Bloomberg report, citing a UBS AG note of Feb. 23 (GM Feb 26, p. 1).

Train Fire at ICL Boulby Terminal

A fire broke out in a train at ICL Boulby’s Terminal at Tees Dock in northeast England on April 19. Firefighters spent an hour attacking the blaze, the local Gazette Live reported.

ICL Boulby said the fire, which occurred shortly before 7:15 a.m., broke out in a shunter locomotive at the depot and was quickly brought under control. No one was injured in the incident, and the terminal is operating normally. An investigation is now underway.

The company’s Tees Dock Terminal handles polysulfate products, the marketed form of polyhalite mined at the company’s Boulby mine.

Explosion Rocks Enaex Storage Warehouse

Chilean explosive-grade ammonium nitrate (EGAN) producer Enaex suffered an explosion in a storage warehouse in the northern Chilean mining town of Calama on April 19. According to local press reports, a large pillar of black smoke could be seen rising into the sky from several miles away as police cordoned off the area and firefighters battled the ensuing blaze.

According to an Enaex statement, the blast took place at 4.45 p.m. local time and was caused by an incident in a storage warehouse for products used in the manufacture of dynamite. It said one person suffered minor injuries.

Enaex said it has launched an investigation into the cause of the blast, but provided no further details.

The company is a subsidiary of the Chilean Sigdo Koppers Group and is the largest producer of EGAN in Latin America.

Belaruskali Starts Main Work on Cage Shaft Sinking at Darasinsky

Belaruskali reported that it has begun the main stage of the operation to sink the cage shaft at its new Darasinsky potash mine. Cage shaft sinking started in December (GM Dec. 11, 2020). The work is being undertaken by Belarus’s Trest Shakhtospetsstroy.

Belaruskali began construction of the new mine, located in the western area of the northern section of Belarus’ Starobinsky deposit, in May 2019 (GM May 24, 2019), and is targeting a nameplate capacity of some 8 million mt/y of potash ore, which it plans to subsequently increase to 9 million mt/y.

Once in production, Darasinsky will help boost Belaruskali’s potash production and will extend the operational life of the company’s third production site (RU-3), where the ore from the new mine will be processed.

The new mine, once operational, will provide for the creation of 840 jobs, Belarus’ state-owned news agency BelTa reported.

Acron Posts 1 Percent Uptick in 1Q Fertilizer Output

Acron Group, Moscow, this week reported a 5 percent increase in its total commercial output to 2.03 million mt in the first quarter, up from the year-ago 1.95 million mt. Fertilizer output increased 1 percent, to 1.62 million mt, up from 1.6 million mt.

Acron Group Fertilizer Production

‘000 mt 1Q-2021 1Q-2020 Percent change
Ammonia 668 677 +2
Nitrogen fertilizers 1,170 1,114 +5
       
AN 575 604 (5)
Urea 319 245 +30
Of which:      
Prilled urea 56 131 (57)
Granular urea 151 0
UAN 276 265 +4
Complex fertilizers 611 618 (1)
       
NPK 584 590 (1)
Total commercial fertilizers 1,615 1,596 +1

Acron Group began the production of granular urea last year, following the commissioning of a 700,000 mt/y urea granulation unit at its Veliky Novgorod site in northwest Russia (GM May 22, 2020). Hitherto, Acron had only produced urea that is prilled or rotoform.

The Russian group this week also confirmed its Urea 6+ urea project at Veliky Novgorod remains on track to come on stream in the current quarter (GM March 19, p. 1).

The completion of the upgrade will increase the urea unit’s production capacity by 520,000 mt/y, and will increase Acron Group’s annual urea production capability by over half a million mt to 1.9 million mt, making it the largest urea producer not only in Russia, but also in Europe.

Russia’s Rusneftegaz Subsidiary Plans Chloride-Free Potash Project

Russia’s Tomsk Investment Co. LLC (TIC), a subsidiary of Rusneftegaz, plans to invest RUB9 billion (approximately $117 million at current exchange rates) into the development of the Golevskoye synnyrite deposit in the country’s Far Eastern Transbaikal territory, according to an Interfax report this week, citing a statement by Russia’s Far East Development Ministry.

The synnyrite will be used as a raw material for the production of chloride-free potash fertilizer, as well as potentially to produce aluminum, according to the report.

The project is targeted to begin operation in the first quarter of 2024 with an initial production of 300,000 mt/y of fertilizer, according to the ministry statement. Production will be ramped up as markets expand.

Yara Back to Black; Adjusted EBITDA Misses Estimates

Yara International ASA, Oslo, reported a first-quarter net income of $14 million ($0.05 per share) after non-controlling interests, compared with a $119 million net loss (-$0.43 per share) a year earlier. Earnings per share excluding currency effects and special items were $0.80, versus $0.39 per share in first-quarter 2020.

Revenue was up 10 percent, at $3.14 billion from $2.85 billion the previous year, while EBITDA excluding special items increased by 16 percent to $585 million, up from $504 million.

Yara attributed the increase in EBITDA excluding special items as mainly reflecting improved pricing more than offsetting higher natural gas costs, as well as continued growth in premium product sales.

But the adjusted EBITDA for the first quarter missed estimates, with the average analyst estimate at $598.8 million (range $540.0 million to $678.0 million), according to a Bloomberg consensus.

Yara shares fell as much as 4.4 percent in Oslo following the missed estimates, the steepest intraday decline since November, Bloomberg reported.

“The Yara organization continues to perform well in a demanding environment,” said Yara International President and CEO Svein Tore Holsether.

“Our cash flow also continued to improve, with $2.7 billion of free cash flow generated over the last four quarters. We will consider further cash returns in the coming quarters, in line with the company’s allocation policy,” he said.

Yara said the net foreign currency translation loss in the quarter was $45 million lower than a year ago, and stems primarily from internal funding positions, mainly in Euro against the Norwegian krone and in Brazilian real against both Euro and Norwegian krone.

Fertilizer delivery volumes were marginally off at 6.84 million mt in the first quarter, versus the year-ago 6.85 million mt. Industrial deliveries were up 3 percent on the year, at 1.77 million mt.

Looking ahead, Yara said industry fundamentals are “robust,” as “the twin challenges of resource efficiency and environmental footprint” require significant transformations within both agriculture and the hydrogen economy. The company’s leading food solutions and ammonia positions are well placed to both address and create business opportunities from these challenges, it said.

Yara highlighted that its market environment is in “a positive trend,” with increasing food prices creating stronger planting and crop nutrition incentives for farmers.

“Nitrogen fertilizer markets are robust, with significantly higher prices than a year ago reflecting both stronger demand and limited new supply,” said Yara. “The company’s industrial business has also picked up, following weaker demand during the start of the pandemic.”

The company sees natural gas costs for the second and third quarters of 2021 as expected to be $180 million and $220 million, respectively, higher than a year earlier.

Yara Production and Deliveries

‘000 mt 1Q-2021 1Q-2020
Production    
Ammonia 1,792 1,924
Finished fertilizer and industrial products (excluding bulk blends)1 5,159 5,310
     
Yara Deliveries    
Ammonia trade 458 421
Fertilizer 6,841 6,847
Industrial product 1,767 1,721
Total deliveries 9,065 8,989

1 Including Yara share of production in equity-accounted investees, excluding Yara-produced blends

Yara premium products & YaraVita deliveries

  1Q-2021 1Q-2020 Percent change 1Q21/1Q20 1Q-2019
Premium products1 (million mt) 4.1 4.0 +3.0 3.3
YaraVita (million units) 13.4 11.3 +19 10.5

1 Premium products comprise nitrates (AN, CAN), calcium nitrate (CN), Amidas (sulfur grade urea), NPKs, YaraVita and fertigation products.

Yara Deliveries

‘000 mt 1Q-2021 1Q-2020
Crop Nutrition Deliveries    
Urea 1,368 1,426
Nitrate 1,593 1,670
NPK 2,446 2,375
CN 477 398
UAN 383 356
DAP/MAP/SSP 141 148
MOP/SOP 149 126
Other products 282 349
Total Crop Nutrition Deliveries 6,841 6,847
     
Europe Deliveries    
Urea 293 308
Nitrate 1,156 1,269
NPK 924 938
CN 137 110
Other products 412 445
Total Deliveries Europe 2,922 3,070
     
Americas Deliveries    
Urea 630 621
Nitrate 367 361
NPK 1,113 1,057
CN 296 250
DAP/MAP/SSP 102 110
MOP/SOP 119 102
Other products 241 246
Total Deliveries Americas 2,867 2,747
   
North America 958 860
Brazil 1,452 1,466
Latin America excluding Brazil 457 421
     
Africa & Asia Deliveries1    
Urea 446 497
Nitrate 70 39
NPK 410 381
CN 45 38
Other products 81 74
Total Deliveries Africa & Asia 1,052 1,030
Of which:    
Asia 811 793
Africa 240 237
     
Industrial Solutions Deliveries    
Ammonia2 150 141
Urea2 396 409
Nitrate3 280 276
CN 47 42
Other products5 406 370
Water content in industrial ammonia and urea 487 482
Total Industrial Solutions Deliveries 1,767 1,721

1 The Africa and Asia business also includes Oceania

2 Pure product equivalents

3 Including AN Solution

4 Including sulfuric acid, ammonia, and other minor products

Ammonia

U.S. Gulf/Tampa:

Tampa ammonia prices for April continued at $545/mt CFR, with NOLA barges last done at $545/st FOB.

No huge changes are expected for Tampa ammonia in May. While sellers may still be looking for some increase, others said a rollover or slight decrease are more likely, absent any new major supply disruptions.

Mosaic, which has already said that it is now benefiting from its long-term supply deal with CF, indicated it will take all the tons it can from the domestic producer while Tampa spot prices are high.

Eastern Cornbelt:

Sources continued to report steady preplant ammonia demand in some northern areas of the Eastern Cornbelt, but the pace was winding down. Terminal prices were reported at $600/st FOB Kingston Mines, Ill.; $610/st FOB Huntington, Ind.; $625/st FOB Trilla and Wood River, Ill.; $630/st FOB Cowden, Ill., and $650/st FOB Mt. Vernon, Ind., Henderson, Ky., and Lima, Ohio.

Western Cornbelt:

Ammonia prices remained at $600-$615/st FOB in the Western Cornbelt, depending on location, with the low confirmed at Palmyra, Mo., and out of spot locations in Nebraska. Terminal pricing in Iowa continued to range from $605-$615/st FOB.

Southern Plains:

Ammonia was quoted at $575-$600/st FOB Oklahoma production points, depending on location, with pricing at Coffeyville, Kan., pegged at $600-$615/st FOB. Truck tons out of Beaumont/Houston, Texas, were reported in the $550-$600/st FOB range, based on netbacks.

South Central:

Ammonia truck pricing remained at $600/st FOB El Dorado, Ark., in mid-April. Upgrades to the Memphis ammonia terminal were reportedly in the final stages, with sources expecting tons to be available from that location again in the near term.

Southeast:

Sources continued to report limited truck ammonia offers at $575-$580/st FOB Augusta, Ga., and $610/st FOB Tampa.

Black Sea:

Ammonia prices have stopped their ascent. Sources said the market is now sitting at $455/mt FOB, and even producers are no longer arguing for a higher level.

International traders said the push on prices started slowing down as the month began, but until this week, the market kept showing signs of additional strength. Now, said sources, they see little space for higher prices.

Middle East:

Spot prices remain stable only because there is no material available for spot sales. Sources said supplies in the Arab Gulf remain tight and should stay that way for a few more weeks.

Reports that the Ma’aden 4 plant is up and running have raised hopes that some extra ammonia will soon be available. One trader said it will take another two or three weeks before the backlog on the demand side is fully covered and any spot tons can be offered, however.

Iranian exports of ammonia for the first quarter were reported at 125,000 mt. The main buyer of Iranian ammonia in the first quarter was India, taking 79,000 mt of the total.

No numbers were available for 2020 exports, but Trade Data Monitor reported first-quarter 2019 exports at 103,000 mt. March exports for 2021 were reported at 20,000 mt, of which India took 19,000 mt. The March 2019 exports were reported at 38,000 mt.

India:

No new tenders have been called, even though there are reports of a strong need for ammonia in the country.

China:

Ammonia imports for the first quarter were up 71 percent, according to Trade Data Monitor, to 356,000 mt from 208,000 mt during the first quarter of 2020.March imports alone were at 151,000 mt, up 79 percent from March 2020 imports of 84,000 mt. The top three suppliers to China in March were Saudi Arabia at 46,000 mt, Indonesia at 38,000 mt, and Egypt at 15,000 mt.

Northwest Europe:

The upward pressure on prices in Northwest Europe has abated. Sources said the current level of $520-$530/mt C&F is expected to roll over for at least another week.

The stability of pricing in the Black Sea is being matched by stable expectations from Baltic suppliers. While it is too early to begin serious talks about the May price, sources said the most likely outcome will be a rollover of the current $460-$470/mt FOB price out of the Baltics.

South Korea:

Ammonia imports for the first quarter showed a marginal 1 percent increase, according to Trade Data Monitor, to 380,000 mt from 376,000 mt for the same period in 2020. March imports were down 19 percent, to 144,000 mt from 178,000 mt in March 2020.

Thailand:

Ammonia imports for February were up 26 percent, according to Trade Data Monitor, to 21,000 mt from 16,000 mt in February 2020. January-February 2021 imports were reported at 35,000 mt, compared with 32,000 mt for the same period in 2020.

Urea

U.S. Gulf:

Granular urea barges that were ready to move continued to garner a huge premium at $383-$390/st FOB this week, with late Thursday sellers seeking $400/st FOB for the next trade. However, barges still to load in late April into first-half May were called as low as $340/st FOB. Full-month May was called $320-$322/st FOB.

Eastern Cornbelt:

Urea prices were lower in the Eastern Cornbelt, driven by softer pricing in the NOLA barge market. Sources quoted the regional market at $410-$430/st FOB, down $10-$20/st from last report, with the low confirmed at Ottawa, Ill., and the higher end of the range at Cincinnati, Ohio, and other Ohio River terminals.

Western Cornbelt:

The urea market had reportedly slipped to $420-$425/st FOB St. Louis, Mo., down $5-$15/st from last report, with pricing at Caruthersville, Mo., pegged at the $430/st FOB level. The upper end of the regional range was quoted at the $440/st FOB level in Iowa on a spot basis.

Southern Plains:

Urea pricing had reportedly slipped to $420-$425/st FOB in the Southern Plains, down some $10-$20/st from last report, with the low confirmed at Houston, Texas, and the upper end at Catoosa/Inola, Okla.

South Central:

The urea market had reportedly inched up to $415-$435/st FOB in the South Central region, with the lower end of the range reported at Memphis, Tenn., and the high at Shreveport, La. The market FOB Convent, La., was pegged at the $420/st FOB level, while pricing out of most Arkansas River terminals was quoted firmly at the $430/st FOB level at mid-month.

Southeast:

The urea market was pegged at $435-$440/st FOB Wilmington, N.C., Charleston, S.C., and other port terminals in the Southeast, up $5-$10/st from last report. Savannah, Ga., remained out of product in late April.

India:

Sources reported a delay in calling the pending MMTC tender. A meeting that was reportedly scheduled by MMTC and officials of the Department of Fertilizers on April 20 was scrapped as government and private sector offices closed under pressure to stem the growing COVID-19 infection rate. Reports are also circulating that many key officials at MMTC and the department have been infected, leaving the organizations shorthanded.

International traders said if the preventative steps work, the earliest the tender call could happen would be during the first full week of May. Sources said calling the tender at that time will put it in direct competition with growing demand in the Chinese domestic market. Chinese prices are already rebounding from calls for more domestic buying and in anticipation of a large order from India.

China:

Urea prices have moved back into the $340s/mt FOB for both prills and granular. Traders warned that some prilled product may still be available in the upper-$330s/mt FOB, but not for long.

Buyers for domestic distributors have begun making offers to producers at the same time international traders began looking for product to position in an upcoming Indian tender. The confluence of the two forces pushed prices up.

Sources also pointed to the STC Nepal tender that closed earlier this week. The estimated netback from the 25,000 mt tender put a price in China of $350/mt FOB. Some in the industry discarded that information, however, noting that the transportation and bagging package for the Nepal tender is always expensive and difficult to accurately calculate.

For now, producers do not appear to be in a hurry to make accommodations to international traders looking for product to offer into India. The domestic market is looking strong and is backed by a central government anxious to make sure farmers have all the inputs they need.

Exports for the first quarter were up marginally at 2 percent, to 803,000 mt from 786,000 mt in the same period in 2020.

Chinese Urea Exports
Partner Country January-March (mt)
2019 2020 2021
World 1,308,586 786,264 802,775
India 446,613 222,683 244,482
South Korea 160,101 181,649 146,476
Mexico 53,330 93,811 109,824

March exports were up 36 percent, to 368,000 mt from 271,000 mt in March 2020. March exports surpassed each of the previous two months, with January exports at 292,000 mt and February at 143,000 mt. Sources said the lower February number resulted from closures due to the Lunar New Year holiday and an upswing in COVID-19 cases.

If the pattern of previous years follows, exports will be higher in the second half of the year.

Middle East:

Urea supplies from the Arab Gulf remain tight. The only product moving out of Arab production facilities consists of tons already contracted.

Reports that Ma’aden 4 is back online or about to be restarted were a relief to some international traders. As with ammonia, sources said it will take a few weeks for the production to ramp up and cover the backlog of orders created when the plant went down.

The lack of any new spot business means the price remains in the upper-$340s/mt FOB. Sources reported some talks taking place that put the price in the upper-$330s/mt FOB, matching the price in China. During this week, however, the Chinese price moved back into the $340s/mt FOB. Sources said at that point, Arab producers rejected anything in the $330s/mt FOB.

Despite the rebound in pricing ideas, sources said the paper market for the Arab Gulf remains soft. The May price is pegged at $325/mt FOB and June at $322.50/mt FOB.

Egyptian producers have concluded deals that confirm softer prices. As the week opened, the talk was all about prices in the $330s/mt FOB. However, the first confirmed deal came in at $340/mt FOB. Soon after that, another agreement was reached at $345/mt FOB. Both sales were less than 10,000 mt each, and are reportedly bound for Turkish buyers.

Alexfert reported that it was taking down a plant for two weeks due to technical difficulties. Sources said the absence of any urea from the plant for such a short period will not have an impact on the market.

Fertiglobe also got in on the act, selling 10,000-20,000 mt of granular urea in the low- to mid-$340s/mt FOB. Reportedly, the material is bound for Italy with shipment for the end of April.

As the week closed, Abu Qir added to the efforts to move prices back up with a sale of 15,000 mt of granular urea at $348/mt FOB for May shipment.

Iranian exports for the first quarter were reported at 784,000 mt by Trade Data Monitor. There is no data for the first quarter of 2020, but 2019 first-quarter exports were reported at 592,000 mt. The main buyer this year was Turkey, taking 332,000 mt.

March exports were pegged at 315,000 mt, with Turkey taking 212,000 mt. March 2019 exports were reported at 99,000 mt.

Indonesia:

Granular prices firmed to $340-$341/mt FOB on the basis of sales to traders for Australian buyers. Prilled urea remained at around $335/mt FOB. Sources said about 60,000 mt of granular urea will be shipped from Indonesia to Australia in May. An additional 48,000 mt of prilled urea will also be loaded for export next month.

Nepal:

The STC tender for 25,000 mt of bagged granular urea closed this week. The low price of $457/mt CIP bagged was submitted by IPL. The next lowest price came from Swiss Singapore at $460/mt CIP bagged.

The material is slated for delivery to various warehouses in Nepal within 60 days of the opening of the letter of credit. As Green Markets went to press, no award had been announced.

The freight and bagging package on sales into Nepal is usually pegged above $100/mt. If the offered tonnage come from China – the most likely option – sources said the netback would be well into the $350s/mt FOB, a level much higher than the current market.

However, sources noted that shipment may not take place until late May or early June, when demand from the domestic market and India will be in full swing. At that point, sources said, the price could easily move back into the $350s/mt FOB.

Thailand:

The government just recently released import numbers through February 2021. Imports of urea for the first two months of the year totaled 245,000 mt, according to Trade Data Monitor, down 14 percent from the 285,000 mt imported during the same period in 2020.

February 2021 imports were reported at 187,000 mt, down 15 percent from 221,000 mt in February 2020.

Ethiopia:

Urea imports for the first quarter of 2021 were down 14 percent, according to Trade Data Monitor, to 189,000 mt from 219,000 mt during the same period in 2020. Egypt, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE were the main suppliers to Ethiopia so far this year, totaling 186,000 mt among the three producing countries.

March imports were up 16 percent, to 47,000 mt from 41,000 mt in March 2020. The full amount of the March 2021 imports was supplied by Saudi Arabia.

Brazil:

The upper end of the price range softened a few bucks, leaving the range at Paranagua at $345-$350/mt CFR.

Sources said pricing continues to soften as buyers wait to see when India calls its next urea tender. At the same time, sources said urea warehouses at the ports and inland have more material for sale than buyers willing to take it.

The pricing problem continues inland as well. Rondonopolis is pegged at $474-$520/mt FOB ex-warehouse, dropping after a brief bump up last week.

Brazil Urea Prices
Terminal/City US$/mt FOB ex-warehouse
Week ending 4/16 Week Ending 04/16
Rondonopolis 505-530 474-520
Sorriso 480-533 480-533

Sources said the lack of interest in buying is largely because most of the demand for the current season is covered. Buyers will only step up now if there is a particularly good deal for a limited amount of product to top off the buyer’s current holdings. No big movement is expected until August or September.

The barter rate remains stable at 71 bags of corn for 1 mt of urea.

UAN

U.S. Gulf:

NOLA barges continued to be put at around $300/st ($9.38/unit) FOB. East Coast vessel business remained at $345-$350/mt CFR.

Eastern Cornbelt:

The UAN-32 market was unchanged at $325-$345/st ($10.16-$10.78/unit) FOB in the region, depending on location, with the low at Mount Vernon and Seneca, Ill., and the high at Burns Harbor, Ind. Sources continued to peg the Cincinnati market at $330-$332/st ($10.31-$10.38/unit) for UAN-32 and $287-$291/st ($10.25-$10.39/unit) FOB for UAN-28.

“Supply remains somewhat tight, and market prices are reflecting this throughout the Midwest,” said one industry contact.

Western Cornbelt:

UAN-32 was unchanged at $325-$345/st ($10.16-$10.78/unit) FOB in the Western Cornbelt, with the low at St. Louis. Pricing out of Iowa terminals was generally pegged in the $340-$345/st ($10.63-$10.78/unit) FOB range in late April.

Southern Plains:

The UAN-32 market was pegged at a solid $340-$350/st ($10.63-$10.94/unit) FOB regional production points, depending on location and time of shipment. The price out of Gulf Coast terminals in Texas was tagged at the $320/st ($10.00/unit) level in late April.

South Central:

The UAN-32 market was also slightly higher, at $320-$330/st ($10.00-$10.31/unit) FOB South Central terminals, up $5/st from last report, with the lower end of the range reported at Memphis.

Southeast:

The UAN-32 market was quoted at $310-$320/st ($9.69-$10.00/unit) FOB terminals in the Southeast, with the lower end out of inland tanks in Georgia and the high out of most port terminals.