Mosaic Co., Tampa,
recently outlined for analysts its optimization of operating assets, with
President and CEO Joc O’Rourke saying, “the North American business is
delivering production and cost improvements that were almost unthinkable a
decade ago.
“Two significant
highlights are the new integrated operations center in phosphates, which is
efficiently and safely running our Four Corners field operations today, and our
continued accelerated progress at Esterhazy as we near completion,” he
continued. Esterhazy 3 is expected to be fully operational by mid-2022, with
O’Rourke saying it would represent the delivery of this project over two years
earlier than originally planned while remaining on budget.
When K3 ramps up,
O’Rourke said the cash cost will be $50-$55/mt, almost $30-$40/mt less than
when the company decided to proceed with the project. It will also add about 900,000
mt/y in tonnage and eliminate some $200 million in brine inflow costs.
O’Rourke said Mosaic is not expected to build a new phosphate mine in Florida anytime soon, citing plentiful reserves and next-generation technology. “One of the big things there is these guys when you talk about innovation, they are now pumping almost 20 miles from the drag lines to the plants,” he said. “That was unheard of a decade ago.
“So bottom line,
we are continuously pushing out the need for new mines,” he said, adding that some
of the investments the company had been talking about five or ten years ago
have been pushed off decades.
Mosaic said the
highwater mark for capital expenditure should come in this year at $1.1 billion,
declining to $800 million in 2025. The company expects consolidated adjusted
EBITDA to grow from 2020’s $318 million to $700 million in 2023.
O’Rourke mentioned
two things that could change the capex scenario – M&A and the need to grow
the premium product category, with MicroEssentials production capacity becoming
a possible limiting factor. The company said it had record-setting growth in
specialty products in 2020 to 4 million mt, and it expects 30 percent growth
with a 2023 target of 5.2 million mt.
“Our collaboration
with companies like Anuvia Plant Nutrients, Bio-Consortia, and Sound
Agriculture, while still very early in the process, shows our commitment to
expanding our specialty product portfolio over time to meet grower needs while
also promoting solid health and sustainability,” he added.
O’Rourke noted that Mosaic Fertilizantes had record-setting financial results in 2020, delivering the best annual earnings and adjusted EBITDA since the acquisition from Vale despite year-over-year declines in average MAP selling prices. “We expect continued growth on many fronts as we look to the future with the combination of stronger grower economics, efficient assets, and our well-positioned distribution business, as well as the benefit of solid execution,” he said.
O’Rourke added
that there is a great opportunity to expand the company’s distribution into
northwest Brazil. “That’s where agriculture is growing, and it is growing quite
rapidly there.” O’Rourke also noted the government of Brazil’s desire to have
more domestic fertilizer production, and suggested that the government may do
something about interstate taxes that have been restrictive. He added that
there is a big advantage to having in-country production, which Mosaic already
has, and he said he believes there are opportunities there.
Even though Tampa ammonia prices have been going up, O’Rourke said that right now the “CF contract is in the money.” As a result, he said that under its contract, it expects to push to take more under its 600,000-800,000 mt/y supply contract from CF, meaning the company will pick up more tons at a price below the market.
When prices were
lower, he said the contract tons were under water. He said the ratios will
change, but that overall the company would maintain its plans to buy about
one-third of its ammonia from CF under a formula-based contract, one-third from
its own Louisiana production, and one-third from the open market.