All posts by mickeybarb@charter.net

DAP/MAP

Brazil, Central Florida, China, DAP/MAP, Eastern Cornbelt, India, Market Watch, Saudi Arabia, South Central, Southeast, Southern Plains, U.S. Exports, U.S. Gulf, Western Cornbelt

Central Florida:

Central Florida DAP trucks continued to be priced at $530/st FOB, steady from the prior week. Sources continued to quote truck-loaded MAP at $545-$560/st FOB Central Florida.

U.S. Gulf:

Frigid temperatures, low trading volumes, and tempered expectations for an early spring planting season combined to soften NOLA barge phosphate pricing for the week, sources said.

DAP barges were reported setting a $520/st FOB low on Feb. 12, a rollover from the week-ago floor, while trades quoted up to $528/st FOB represented a decline from $540/st FOB posted previously. Bid-ask levels for nearby loading were typically quoted in the $520-$530/st FOB range on Feb. 18.

DAP barges loading in April were reportedly offered for as low as $520/st FOB, while asking prices for domestic tons loading in April-May were quoted at $525/st FOB.

Nearby MAP values tracked at a $562.50/st FOB high, falling from the week-ago $595/st FOB, while most market watchers described the bottom of the range at $555/st FOB, rising from $551/st FOB at last report. Most put March bid-ask levels at $560-$565/st FOB on Feb. 18.

Due to the extreme temperatures, sources said a number of logistics difficulties hindered operations for the week, including issues with barge loading and navigation shutdowns reported throughout the eastern river system.

The nearby DAP barge market softened to the $520-$528/st FOB range, falling from $520-$540/st FOB one week earlier. MAP barges were called $555-$562.50/st FOB, a change from $551-$595/st FOB reported previously.

U.S. Exports:

Nothing new was reported on the Gulf export market. Last-done included a combined 7,000 mt DAP and MAP cargo selling into a single destination in the northern Latin American markets. Pricing was reported at $530/mt FOB, with loading slated for late March.

Based on recent business, the Gulf phosphate export market continued to be called $530/mt FOB, steady from week-ago levels.

Eastern Cornbelt:

DAP was quoted at $565-$585/st FOB in the Eastern Cornbelt, with the low reported at Cincinnati and reflecting a roughly $10/st decline from the previous week. MAP prices ranged broadly from $610-$650/st FOB in the region, depending on location, with the low again reported at Cincinnati.

Western Cornbelt:

DAP prices were reported at $560-$585/st FOB in the Western Cornbelt, depending on location and time of shipment, with the low reported at St. Louis and reflecting a $5/st drop from last report. DAP pricing at Dubuque, Iowa, remained at $575-$585/st FOB for new business, with the Caruthersville market pegged firmly at the $580/st FOB level.

MAP remained at $625-$650/st FOB in the Western Cornbelt, unchanged from the previous week. The St. Paul market was quoted at $590/st FOB or higher for DAP and $650-$675/st FOB for MAP.

Southern Plains:

DAP pricing in the Southern Plains was quoted at $575-$585/st FOB Catoosa/Inola and Houston. MAP pricing reportedly slipped to $595-$610/st FOB Catoosa/Inola early in the week for spring tons from at least one supplier, but others quoted current MAP offers firmly in the $635-$650/st FOB range as the week progressed.

Truck-DEL offers in central Texas were confirmed at $595/st for DAP and $625/st for MAP at mid-month.

South Central:

Warehouse DAP prices were reported at $570-$580/st FOB terminals in the South Central region, virtually unchanged from the previous week, but up $50-$60/st since late January.

Southeast:

Nutrien’s reference pricing for DAP and MAP at Aurora, N.C., remained firmly at the $550/st FOB level, up from $480/st FOB in late January.

Saudi Arabia:

Sources noted Saudi Arabia phosphate business softening to a wide $425-$515/mt FOB range, with the low based on netbacks for business concluded into India. The market was previously reported in the $510-$530/mt FOB range.

India:

Sources said Ma’aden sold 25,000 mt of DAP to an India buyer at $440/mt CFR for delivery in the first half of March, with an agreement to send another similar cargo for the second half of the month.

The price, confirmed by a number of sources, surprised many because the netback to the Arab Gulf is pegged at $425/mt FOB at a time when Chinese DAP is being sold at $500-$505/mt FOB. The reason the Saudis agreed to such a low price is a mystery to global traders. Some have suggested the two cargoes are part of a larger order that incorporated formula-based pricing.

The bottom line is that DAP is once again moving into India after a long period of buyers refusing to accept ever-rising prices. While this deal does reflect a move up in what India pays for its DAP, it is far below what the Indians would have to pay if the product came from China.

A tender by RCF for 50,000 mt to be divided into two equal shipments, one to an East Coast port and one to a West Coast port, has been extended from Feb. 15 to Feb. 22. Sources said the company did not give a reason for the extension, but some speculated that RCF did not receive any offers by the deadline. One trader noted that there is no Chinese product for export, and Arab suppliers reportedly have no tons to spare for a tender.

National Fertilizers Limited will close a tender on March 12 for 350,000 mt of DAP to be delivered in four lots between May 2021 and January 2022.

If RCF goes through with its tender, sources said the pricing could help set a net benchmark for the many DAP purchases that India needs to make for the upcoming season. However, said one trader, the dearth of material from China at any price could make getting a bargain difficult.

China:

Sources now confirm that the last bit of DAP business earlier this month into Thailand showed a netback to China of $500-$505/mt FOB. Traders are now working with this range when looking at future deals out of the country.

The problem with future deals, however, is the lack of material. Sources said all inquiries for DAP and other phosphates were rebuffed before the country closed for the Lunar New Year holiday. Traders said factories experienced reduced production because of the holiday break and because COVID-19 outbreaks have forced plant closures in some areas. The virus has also made the transportation of product difficult from factory to distribution points.

Brazil:

With much of the Brazil market reportedly shuttered for the week due to Carnival, last-done pricing at Brazil continued to fall in the $570-$600/mt CFR range, steady from the prior report. The market’s most-recent business was quoted at $580-$600/mt CFR, with offers reported at $610/mt CFR.

Sources reported issues unloading vessels due to the seasonal rains. At the same time, the rains are also affecting the distribution of material at Mato Grosso and other inland centers.

Sales at Rondonopolis remain pegged at $670-$700/mt FOB ex-warehouse.The barter rate for 1 mt of MAP remains at 75 bags of corn and 31 bags of soybeans.

TSP

Market Watch, South Central, Triple Superphosphate, U.S. Gulf, Western Cornbelt

U.S. Gulf:

Sources noted the TSP barge market at $430-$450/st FOB, narrowing from the $425-$495/st FOB range reported previously. Most new indications were heard toward the bottom of the range at $430-$440/st FOB.

Western Cornbelt:

The TSP market was pegged at $500-$515/st FOB in the Western Cornbelt, up $45-$50/st from last report.

South Central:

Firming NOLA barge values pushed TSP terminal pricing in the South Central region up to $475-$515/st FOB, up some $35-$45/st from the prior week and a full $80-$90/st higher than January levels.

Phosphoric Acid

Eastern Cornbelt, India, Market Watch, Phosphoric Acid, Southern Plains, Western Cornbelt

Eastern Cornbelt:

Phos acid remained at $12.95-$13.05/unit rail-DEL in the Eastern Cornbelt for February tons.

Western Cornbelt:

Phos acid pricing was unchanged at $12.85/unit rail-DEL in Nebraska, Missouri, and Iowa for February tons.

Southern Plains:

The phos acid market for February shipment was quoted at $12.85/unit rail-DEL in Colorado, Kansas, and New Mexico, and $12.95/unit rail-DEL in Texas and Louisiana, up $1.50/unit from January.

India:

Phosphoric acid contracts with buyers in India were quoted at $795/mt CFR for first-quarter fulfillment, an increase of $106/mt on the previous $689/mt CFR agreement. The price included material loading from both Morocco and North America.

Ammonium Polyphosphate

Ammonium Polyphosphate, Eastern Cornbelt, Market Watch, Southern Plains, Western Cornbelt

Eastern Cornbelt:

The 10-34-0 market was quoted at $465-$495/st FOB in the Eastern Cornbelt for spring tons.

Western Cornbelt:

10-34-0 prices were pegged at $465-$495/st FOB in the Western Cornbelt in mid-February.

Southern Plains:

The 10-34-0 market was reported at $490-$510/st FOB in the Kansas market for spring tons, up significantly from January. 11-37-0 pricing in Texas jumped to the mid-$500/st FOB, with another near-term increase likely.

AdvanSix Reports 4Q, Full-Year Increase in Earnings, Expects Increased AS Demand

Ammonium Sulfate, Earnings, News, Northeast

AdvanSix, Parsippany, N.J., reported increases for income for both the fourth-quarter and full-year ending Dec. 31, 2020. Fourth-quarter net income moved into the plus column to $26.8 million ($0.94 per diluted share) from the year-ago loss of $2.1 million ($0.08 per share). EBITDA was $48.5 million, up from $12.7 million.

Sales moved up to $340.3 million from $326.7 million. The company said overall sales volumes for the quarter were up 7.9 percent. Ammonium sulfate represented 23 percent of total sales, level with the year-ago figure. However, for full-year 2020, AS represented 25 percent, up from 23 percent.

Full-year net income was $46.1 million ($1.64 per share) on sales of 41.16 billion, up from 2019’s $41.3 million ($1.43 per share) and $1.3 billion, respectively. EBITDA was $123.7 million, up from $115.6 million.

Going forward, the company expects increased ammonium sulfate fertilizer demand though the 2021 planting season, citing improved ag fundamentals – robust planted acres and crop prices at multi-year highs supporting higher fertilizer prices. The company said it is monitoring ammonium sulfate supply (new capacity and imports) and raw material input costs.

Company-wide, AdvanSix expects to spend less on planned turnarounds in 2021 – $25-$30 million versus the $31 million in 2020. The company is eyeing major turnarounds in the second-quarter ($11-$13 million) and the fourth-quarter ($14-$17 million).

Muriate of Potash

Brazil, China, Eastern Cornbelt, India, Market Watch, Potash Muriate, South Central, Southeast, Southern Plains, U.S. Gulf, Western Cornbelt

U.S. Gulf:

Potash prices were pegged in the $305-$325/st FOB range for late February/March barges, up from the week-ago $280-$314/st FOB. Sources said April barges were being discussed at $315-$320/st FOB.

Eastern Cornbelt:

After a surge the previous week on the back of a $50/st price hike by domestic producers, sources said potash prices in the Eastern Cornbelt generally fell in the $335-$355/st FOB range out of river warehouses at mid-month, with producer postings reported at $375-$380/st FOB for new Q2 offers.

Western Cornbelt:

The potash market was reported at $340-$380/st FOB, with the upper end reflecting producer postings. Sources quoted the St. Louis market at $340-$355/st FOB, with Caruthersville pricing firmly at the $360/st FOB level. The St. Paul potash market was reported at $345-$375/st FOB at mid-month.

Southern Plains:

Potash pricing was quoted at $345-$365/st FOB Catoosa/Inola for new offers. Feb. 8 postings from Intrepid FOB Carlsbad, N.M., include $430/st for 60 percent white granular and $437/st for 62 percent white standard, up $50/st from the previous list prices and a full $140/st higher than 2020 summer fill values.

South Central:

Potash prices were quoted at $330-$365/st FOB warehouses in the South Central region, steady from the previous week but up $25-$50/st from early February, with the low reported at Memphis and the high at Shreveport. Sources quoted most Arkansas River terminals firmly at the $360/st FOB level at midweek.

Southeast:

Potash was pegged at $340/st FOB or higher at Wilmington, N.C., with rail-DEL offers ranging from $368-$395/st in the Southeast, depending on grade and time of shipment.

China/India:

Belaruskali/Belarus Potash Co. remains the only major player to have inked new potash supply contracts with China and India, setting the new price at $247/mt CFR for both markets (GM Jan. 29, p. 17; Feb. 12, p. 16), a level that dismayed other major potash producers/suppliers.

Nutrien Ltd. President and CEO Chuck Magro, in a company earnings call on Feb. 18, reiterated Nutrien’s position that the new price is not reflective of current market conditions.Following the announcement of the new India contact, both Canpotex and Nutrien said they would not follow this price level for potential sales into India in 2021 (GM Feb. 5, p. 16).

“The way we are thinking about India and China is all options are on the table,” Magro told analysts on Feb. 18. “These markets are now clearly our lowest netbacks, so we are going to allocate our volume accordingly, and I certainly don’t expect us to put significant volume into those markets at disconnected price levels from the rest of the world.”

Magro said Canpotex remains active in discussions with India and China buyers, but added that Nutrien has “better places to put its potash.”

Mosaic Co. President and CEO Joc O’Rourke told analysts at the company’s earnings call on Feb. 18 that Mosaic would not be negotiating contracts with India or China on its own and would expect Canpotex to take “a holistic view” when it interacts with Indian and Chinese buyers.

Brazil:

Second semester sales of MOP are now being reported at $320/mt CFR in Brazil, reflecting an increase in prices at the receiving ports. The price at Rondonopolis, however, has remained steady at $380-$425/mt FOB ex-warehouse. The barter rate for 1 mt is still 20 bags of soybeans and 55 bags of corn.

The price for MOP for February remains at $280-$305/mt CFR, based on previous deals for the product. The issue with MOP is its scarcity. Sources said inland buyers are still having problems finding tons to top off their seasonal needs.

Brazil MOP Prices
Terminal/City US$/mt FOB
Week ending 02/12 Week Ending 02/19
Rondonopolis 380-425 380-425
Sorriso 399 399

Rains at this time of year traditionally slow down unloading and delivery, and this year is no exception. Industry sources are complaining of delays at the ports getting the product off the vessel, with the rains causing additional delays moving the product inland.

Sulfur

ADNOC - Abu Dhabi, Alberta, Brazil, China, Market Watch, Qatar, Sulfur, Tampa, U.S. Gulf, Vancouver, West Coast

Tampa:

Arctic weather sweeping across much of the U.S. impacted refinery operations in the Midwest, Genscape reported. Unit outages or total shutdowns were noted at the CVR refinery in Wynnewood, Okla., and the HollyFrontier plants in Tulsa, Okla., and El Dorado, Kan.

Operations were also affected at the CHS plant in McPherson, Kan., the Marathon refinery in Robinson, Ill., and the CVR facility in Coffeyville, Kan. Units were also reported shutting down at Valero’s refinery in Memphis, Tenn.

Tampa molten sulfur contracts were valued at $96/lt CFR for first-quarter delivery, up $27/lt from the prior period.

Refinery utilization inched higher in the U.S. Energy Information Administration’s (EIA) Feb. 18 report. Nationwide capacity was reported at 83.1 percent for the week ending Feb. 12, a 0.1 point increase from the week-ago 83.0 percent. The current rate continued to trail last year’s 89.4 percent and the 86.7 percent five-year average.

Daily crude inputs lifted to an average 14.819 million barrels/d for the period, a 26,000 barrel/d increase from the last reported 14.793 million barrels/d rate.

U.S. Gulf:

Extreme winter temperatures heavily impacted refinery operations in the Gulf during the week, reducing outputs or forcing total shutdowns.

Genscape reported numerous unit outages starting on Feb. 15 at the country’s largest refinery, the 636,500 barrel/d Motiva plant in Port Arthur, Texas. All of the facility’s monitored units were offline on Feb. 16.

Valero shut a 115,000 barrel/d crude distillation unit (CDU) and a 14,000 barrel/d hydro treater early on Feb. 15 at the company’s Houston refinery, and added a 38,000 barrel/d vacuum distillation unit (VDU) to the shutdown list later that evening. Multiple unit shutdowns were also reported at Valero’s Corpus Christi, Texas, facilities, with both the East and West units affected.

Shutdowns at the Valero plant in Port Arthur included the 256,000 barrel/d CDU, the 172,000 barrel/d VDU, an 80,000 barrel/d fluidic catalytic cracking unit (FCC), and a 57,000 barrel/d hydrocracker. In addition, reduced activity was observed from a 100,000 barrel/d coking unit at the facility.

Total halted all output at its 200,000 barrel/d Port Arthur plant, Genscape noted, stopping production on a 165,000 barrel/d CDU, an 80,000 barrel/d CDU, a 55,000 barrel/d VDU, a 52,000 barrel/d VDU, an 80,000 barrel/d FCC, and numerous additional units.

Two sulfur recovery units and a 45,000 barrel/d hydrotreater were taken offline at the Citgo plant in Corpus Christi on Feb. 15. Prior to those shutdowns, Genscape reported numerous unit shutdowns at the refinery, including a 174,000 barrel/d CDU, an 85,300 barrel/d VDU, and the plant’s 69,000 barrel/d No. 2 FCC unit.

Genscape also reported Feb. 15 shutdowns at the Chevron Corp. facility in Pasadena, Texas, including a 115,700 barrel/d CD, a 56,000 barrel/d FCC, and a 35,000 barrel/d hydrotreater.

Operational interruptions reported at the 584,000 barrel/d ExxonMobil Corp. plant in Baytown, Texas, included the plant’s 280,300 barrel/d Pipestill 8 crude section, a 100,000 barrel/d PS-3 CDU, and a 65,000 barrel/d catalytic reformer, among others. Exxon took a 120,000 barrel/d FCC and a 65,000 barrel/d hydrocracker offline at its plant in Beaumont, Texas, on Feb. 15, followed by a 119,400 barrel/d CDU and a 46,800 barrel/d VDU on Feb. 16.

Additional shutdowns were reported at the Valero refinery in McKee, Texas, the Phillips 66 facility in Lake Charles, La., Valero’s Corpus Christ West plant, and the Citgo refinery in Lake Charles. LyondellBasell Ind. shut units at the company’s Houston facility, while all monitored units were taken offline during the week at the Valero plant in Meraux, La., Genscape reported.

Shell powered down a 70,000 barrel/d FCC and a 67,000 barrel/d hydrocracker on Feb. 15 in Deer Park, Texas. The moves were preceded by a 70,000 barrel/d CDU and reduced activity at the plant’s 270,000 barrel/d DU-2 CDU.

Reuters reported the Feb. 14 shutdown of numerous units at Marathon Petroleum Corp.’s 585,000 barrel/d Galveston Bay refinery, located in Texas City, Texas. Genscape listed numerous refinery components offline for the week, including a sulfur recovery unit, a 50,000 barrel/d CDU, and a 58,500 barrel/d FCC.

Despite the plethora of production outages, truck and rail logistical operations for the current period were described as mostly unchanged from recent weeks. “The railroads are not operating well, but most are chalking that up to COVID,” one source said.

Recent transactions at Brazil and Morocco suggested Gulf price ideas in the $135-$150/mt FOB range, sources said, should spot material become available. Reduced refinery runs stemming from the ongoing pandemic have restricted the market’s spot capacity since early 2020.

Brazil:

The recent Brazil import market continued to be reported in the $170-$180/mt CFR range, with the high noted coming on a $180/mt CFR purchase by Copebras.

Vancouver:

Last-done at Vancouver was quoted flat at $140-$149/mt FOB. Rising values at China were projected to push Vancouver higher in the next round of business.

Alberta:

Sulfur produced in Alberta netted back in a wide (-)$31-(-)$79/mt FOB range, sources indicated, unchanged from one week earlier.

West Coast:

West Coast prilled sulfur pricing continued to be noted at $140-$149/mt FOB, unmoved from the previous report. Molten tons loading from West Coast locations fell in the $70-$77/lt FOB range for first-quarter contracts, firming from $45-$60/lt in fourth-quarter 2020.

China:

Recent China spot import levels continued to be heard at $173-$178/mt CFR, coming on firm bids reported ahead of the country’s two-week Lunar New Year holiday. Domestic market pricing was quoted firming to a $190-$200/mt CFR equivalent for the week, indicating lifting import values when the market reopens.

ADNOC:

Sources noted February ADNOC offers at $128/mt FOB Ruwais, a $26/mt jump from the prior $102/mt FOB price.

Qatar:

Qatar prills were reported at $125/mt FOB Ras Laffan for February loading, up $24/mt from $101/mt FOB in January.

Sulfuric Acid

Brazil, Gulf Coast, Market Watch, Midwest, Sulfuric Acid, U.S. Gulf, West Coast

U.S. Gulf:

Rapidly tightening international sulfuric acid availability was reported to add substantial upside pressure to the spot import market.

Recent business into South America quoted up to $120/mt CFR left the Gulf market’s previous sub-$100/mt valuation infeasible, sources said. New spot cargoes loading in the next two months would need to carry pricing at a minimum $110-$120/mt CFR to land in the Gulf, they said.

Gulf Coast:

Annual domestic contracts continued to be reported at $85-$110/st DEL for delivery to Gulf Coast destinations. Skyrocketing import values were likely to pressure agreements higher in the next round of business, sources said.

“The problem is that importers cannot bring in these values and expect to make any money,” one player said. “The (contracted) domestic prices this year were so low that it is effectively blocking spot import purchases.”

Midwest:

The Midwest market was quoted even with the Gulf at $85-$110/mt DEL for 2021 agreements.

West Coast:

Tons delivered to the West Coast fell in the $100-$130/st DEL range, sources said.

Brazil:

Recent business on the Brazil spot import market was reported in the $115-$120/mt CFR range, firming from $85-$90/mt CFR reported previously. Sources described similar spot levels out of the Chile and Argentina markets.

Ammonium Thiosulfate

Amthio, Eastern Cornbelt, Market Watch, South Central, Southern Plains, Specialty, Western Cornbelt

Eastern Cornbelt:

Ammonium thiosulfate pricing remained at $235-$250/st FOB in the Eastern Cornbelt, with the low at Cincinnati and Burns Harbor and the higher numbers inland.

Western Cornbelt:

The ammonium thiosulfate market remained at $225-$245/st FOB in the Western Cornbelt.

Southern Plains:

The ammonium thiosulfate market was pegged at $185-$215/st FOB in the Southern Plains, with the low reported at Houston and reflecting a $10/st increase from late January.

South Central:

The ammonium thiosulfate market was pegged at $220-$230/st FOB Memphis, up $10-$15/st from last report.