U.S. Gulf:
The
NOLA granular urea barge market showed some strength at mid-month after a few
weeks of decline. New barge trades were reported in the $324-$356/st FOB range,
up from the week-ago $320-$342/st FOB.
Eastern Cornbelt:
Urea
was quoted at $380-$410/st FOB in the Eastern Cornbelt, with the lower end
reported at Cincinnati, Ohio, and other river terminals in the region.
Western Cornbelt:
Urea pricing was unchanged at
$375-$410/st FOB in the Western Cornbelt, with the low reported at St. Louis
and Caruthersville, Mo., and the upper end at Port Neal, Iowa. The St. Paul,
Minn., market was pegged firmly at the $405-$410/st FOB level during the week.
Southern Plains:
Sources quoted the urea market at $380-$385/st
FOB Catoosa/Inola, Okla., up $5/st from the previous week, with some sources
speculating that higher levels are likely when production fully resumes. The
Houston, Texas, market was also reported at $380-$385/st FOB, with truck-DEL
urea in central Texas pegged at the $400/st level, give or take.
South Central:
Urea prices were inching up in the South
Central region, fueled by NOLA barge values that saw a mid-month rebound after
a week or two of decline. Terminal values were generally up $10/st from the
previous week, to $380/st FOB Convent, La., and most Arkansas River terminals,
$380-$385/st FOB Memphis, Tenn., $380-$390/st FOB river terminals in Kentucky,
and $400-$405/st FOB Shreveport, La.
Southeast:
The urea market was
quoted at $400-$405/st FOB port terminals in the Southeast, up from $375/st FOB
at last report.
China:
The
country was essentially closed for the past two weeks. Offices are expected to
re-open on Feb. 22. In the absence of anyone to talk to, international traders
said the market held even in the low-$360s/mt FOB.
Sources
said even after people return from the Lunar New Year holiday, urea for export
will still not be readily available. Some in the industry are now saying that
when the offices open, the starting price will be closer to $370/mt FOB, which
would put Chinese urea back on par with the Arab Gulf price.
Just
before the beginning of the holiday, the government issued a reminder to all
fertilizer producers and traders that the first priority is to ensure a
plentiful supply for the upcoming spring application season. Sources said the
local distribution centers seem to have good reserves built up. The issue will
be determining the demand strength.
Reportedly,
the few tons that are being shipped to regional buyers are coming from product
already placed in warehouses at the ports. Those tons have not been replaced in
the past few months, leaving international traders to speculate that soon there
may not be anything for export.
Refilling
the export warehouses and satisfying the domestic demand may face difficulties.
The sporadic outbreaks of COVID-19 have been affecting the transportation
system that moves the urea from plants to local distributors and ports. Some
plants have also been hit with reduced staff because of the virus.
India:
Sources
are now talking about a tender call in the first week of March instead of the
end of February. Reportedly, the government is looking at the ever-rising prices
of urea in the global market, and seems to hope that by holding off the price
might come down in time for a tender. Most traders said this is a false hope.
International
traders have been looking at the demand for urea by farmers. According to some,
demand remains strong, meaning local and portside warehouses are being quickly
emptied. One trader estimated that at the current rate, the reserves will be
quickly eaten up and the country will be in a negative supply situation by the
end of March.
One
trader said if that situation holds true, a tender will need to be called in
late February so that the first cargoes of awarded urea can start being trucked
inland by the end of March.
Middle
East:
Urea
prices have stabilized in the $370s/mt FOB, even as the whole market seemed to
pause and take a deep breath. Reports of limited tons coming from China have encouraged
producers into thinking that they do not have to lower their prices any time
soon.
However,
the paper market seems to differ. March estimates in the paper market put the
price at $355-$363/mt FOB, representing a $15/mt drop. The following months
show a continued slide to $351-$360/mt FOB for April and $340-$350/mt FOB for
May.
Traders
expressed skepticism that the prices would drop so precipitously in the next
three months, despite expectations by buyers that the second quarter would show
a price drop.
Egyptian
producers were also puzzled by the paper market predictions. The current price
in the $370s/mt FOB was set more than a month ago for the February and early
March shipments. Early April sales have already been concluded at $380/mt FOB,
with producers arguing for late-April prices of $400/mt FOB. In fact, as the
week closed, MOPCO concluded a deal for 6,000 mt of granular to be shipped in
the second half of April at $390/mt FOB.
The
paper market is showing a steady decline for the next three months. March is
pegged at $365-$380/mt FOB, which does track with many of the deals already
signed. However, the April range of $360-$370/mt FOB is in direct contrast to
deals already done for that month at $380/mt FOB. A further decline is seen in
May to $350-$365/mt FOB.
Nepal:
A
tender for 30,000 mt of bagged urea to be delivered to a Nepalese warehouse
closed on Feb. 14 with only two offers at $473.70/mt CFR and $487/mt CFR. The
lower offer came from Joshi, which has won previous tenders. One source noted
that the company has had a hard time in the past securing the tons awarded in those
previous tenders.
The
issue Joshi will face this time is the scarcity of urea to fill the award, especially
from China, as well as finding any supplier ready to offer tons at prices that
are currently below market level. Sources estimate that the cost of bagging and
transporting the urea is more than $100/mt, meaning the trader is looking at a
China-equivalent price close to the last-done price from China.
Pakistan:
Local
media reported that domestic urea producers are asking permission to export
urea. The support the government gave the producers last year with subsidized
natural gas has led to a surplus of about 1 million mt, according to the
industry figures. At the same time, demand from local farmers appears to be
waning as subsidies are slowly changed to allow for increases in what the
farmers pay for their 50 kg bags.
The
latest price quote for urea is Rs1,760/50 kg (US$220/mt) to Rs1,780/50 kg
(US$224/mt).
Brazil:
The
country took most of this week off for Carnival and other pre-Lent
celebrations. International traders said there was no shift in the market.
However, as the country came back to work at the end of the week, sources in
Brazil noticed prices had slipped.
Traders
in Brazil are now calling the market $380-$390/mt CFR at the ports. This
represents about a $10/mt decline in prices from the previous week.
The
drop coincided with a general lethargy in the market. Sources noted limited
interest in new fertilizer purchases because the winter corn market is about
done, and farmers are now focusing on fieldwork for the next soy and corn
harvests. In addition, sources said mixers either have most of the nitrogen
they need or are looking to cheaper urea alternatives, such as ammonium
sulfate.
Sources
reported some delays in unloading cargoes at the ports because of the seasonal
rains. These delays are raising concerns that when more product is needed inland,
it might not be there for the farmers.
Rondonopolis
is reporting a steady price of $475-$490/mt FOB ex-warehouse, for now, as
traders come back to work at the end of the week. Likewise, Sorriso is even at
$540/mt FOB. The barter rate for 1 mt of urea remains at 60 bags of corn at
Mato Grosso.
|
Brazil Urea Prices
|
|
Terminal/City
|
US$/mt FOB ex-warehouse
|
|
Week ending 02/12
|
Week Ending 02/19
|
|
Rondonopolis
|
475-490
|
475-490
|
|
Sorriso
|
540
|
540
|