All posts by mickeybarb@charter.net

16-20-0

California, Market Watch, NPK 16-20-0, Pacific N.W.

California:

The 16-20-0 market was reported at $445/st FOB Lathrop or rail-DEL in California as of Feb. 1, up $10/st from late January and $25/st higher than mid-January pricing levels. Another $10/st increase on Feb. 4, however, pushed the California market up to $455/st FOB or DEL.

Pacific Northwest:

16-20-0 pricing as of Feb. 1 included $432/st FOB Aurora and $435/st DEL in Washington, Oregon, Nevada, Idaho, Utah, and Montana, up $10/st from late January and some $25/st or more higher than mid-January pricing levels. Reference prices firmed again on Feb. 4, to $442/st FOB and $445/st DEL in the region.

Phosphoric Acid

California, Eastern Cornbelt, India, Market Watch, Pacific N.W., Phosphoric Acid, Western Cornbelt

Eastern Cornbelt:

Phos acid pricing jumped up to $12.95-$13.05/unit rail-DEL in the Eastern Cornbelt for February tons, up $1.50/unit from January.

Western Cornbelt:

Phos acid prices ramped up to $12.85/unit rail-DEL in Nebraska, Missouri, and Iowa for February tons, up a full $1.50/unit from January.

California:

Simplot’s postings for SPA and MGA firmed $1.50/unit on Feb. 1, to $12.00/unit rail-DEL in California and Arizona. The MGA posting FOB Lathrop and El Centro, Calif., moved up to $12.20/unit on that date.

Pacific Northwest:

A $1.50/unit increase in phos acid pricing from Simplot on Feb. 1 pushed postings up to $11.50/unit Pocatello, Idaho, and $12.00/unit rail-DEL in Utah, Oregon, Washington, Idaho, and Montana.

India:

Sources reported phosphoric acid contracts between Moroccan suppliers and buyers in India settling at $795/mt CFR for delivery in the first quarter, a $106/mt increase from $689/mt CFR in Q4 2020. The move was not surprising given the dramatic rise in DAP and MAP prices.

Suppliers located in North America reported ongoing settlement talks on Feb. 4, leaving the market in the $689-$795/mt CFR range for the week.

Ammonium Polyphosphate

Ammonium Polyphosphate, California, Eastern Cornbelt, Market Watch, Pacific N.W., Western Canada, Western Cornbelt

Eastern Cornbelt:

10-34-0 prices shot up in tandem with the phos acid and ammonia increases, with sources quoting new offers at $465-$480/st FOB in the Eastern Cornbelt, up some $50/st from last report.

Western Cornbelt:

10-34-0 prices followed phos acid higher, to $460-$480/st FOB in the Western Cornbelt.

California:

The phos acid increase for February pushed10-34-0 prices up to $515-$520/st FOB in California, with 11-37-0 firming to $565-$570/st FOB in the state on Feb. 1.

Pacific Northwest:

Reference pricing for 10-34-0 in the Pacific Northwest firmed some $58/st on Feb. 1, to $511-$526/st FOB, depending on location. 11-37-0 postings in the region moved up roughly $61/st on Feb. 1, to $553-$568/st FOB and $543/st DEL within a limited freight zone in Idaho.

Western Canada:

10-34-0 pricing was quoted at C$780-$815/mt DEL in Western Canada, up from C$670-$700/mt DEL at last report, depending on location.

Muriate of Potash

Brazil, California, Eastern Cornbelt, India, Market Watch, Pacific N.W., Potash Muriate, U.S. Gulf, Western Canada, Western Cornbelt

U.S. Gulf:

Potash barge prices continued to move up, with sources calling February business in the $270-$282/st FOB range, up from the week-ago $260-$272/st FOB. March sales were reported to have occurred in the $292-$300/st FOB range.

Eastern Cornbelt:

The potash market remained at $305-$330/st FOB in the Eastern Cornbelt, with the low out of spot river locations and the high reflecting inland warehouse postings from Canadian producers for Q2 tons. Sources pegged the Cincinnati market in a broad range at $305-$325/st FOB in early February, with the East Dubuque market quoted at the $315/st FOB level for spring.

“It won’t surprise me if another price increase happens at any point,” said one regional contact. In fact, as Green Markets went to press, unconfirmed reports were circulating that a Canadian producer had raised prices by $50/st on Feb. 5.

Western Cornbelt:

The potash market was pegged at $305-$330/st FOB regional warehouses in the Western Cornbelt, with the low confirmed at St. Louis. The St. Paul market was quoted at $315-$330/st FOB in early February.

California:

Potash reference prices in California remained firmly at the $455/st FOB level for 60 percent MOP and $465/st FOB for 62 percent. Some sources reporting booking prompt tons for as low as $400/st FOB local warehouses earlier in the year, but those deals were now off the table.

Pacific Northwest:

Potash was pegged at $400-$412/st FOB regional warehouses in the Pacific Northwest, depending on grade and location, with rail-DEL tons reported in roughly the same range. Potash postings FOB Moab and Wendover, Utah, remained at $375/st FOB for 60 percent white standard and $380/st FOB for 60 percent white granular.

Western Canada:

Western Canada sources reported potash pricing firmly at C$470-$480/mt FOB Saskatchewan mines for prompt or spring tons, with earlier offers of C$430-$435/mt for Q1 material no longer available.

India:

Canpotex, Nutrien, Uralkali, and K+S Group have all stated that the new annual contract price of $247/mt CFR reached between Belarus Potash Co. (BPC) and India’s biggest potash importer, Indian Potash Ltd. (IPL), is not reflective of current market trends. The new contract was announced on Jan. 29 (GM Jan. 29, p. 17).

“This would be significantly below current market levels for potash in key offshore markets and a complete disconnect from the strong fundamentals currently being seen for major agricultural commodities in numerous growing regions throughout the world,” Canpotex said.

“Canpotex is fully committed on volumes for potash sales through April 2021 even without a new contract settlement with our customers in India,” the export organization said. “Record potash shipments were made in 2020, and we anticipate further export market demand growth in 2021.”

Canpotex was the first company to settle a new potash supply contract with India last year, agreeing to new contracts with IPL in mid-May for potash shipments through Dec. 31, 2020 (GM May 15, 2020). The latest India contract settlement between BPC and IPL is a $17/mt CFR increase on the 2020 contract price.

Nutrien Ltd., a member of Canpotex, said on Jan 30 it is fully aligned with Canpotex’s view of the new contract. “We understand that the potash agreement with India was settled at the highest government level with limited commercial involvement,” said Ken Seitz, Nutrien Potash Executive Vice President and CEO. “This contract price in no way reflects the market-based pricing in the current key offshore potash markets which, like other fertilizers, is being supported by strong global crop fundamentals.”

Seitz said Nutrien supports Canpotex’s position to not follow this price level for potential sales into India in 2021. Nutrien also confirmed that it is now fully committed on potash sales to North America through April 2021, in addition to offshore sales volumes with Canpotex. It is significant that these offshore commitments through April do not include any shipments to India or China, the company said.

K+S Group also does not believe the new contract supply price reflects market conditions, and reported on Feb. 2 that it will refrain from deliveries to India until further notice given that “very favorable demand for potash fertilizers can be observed worldwide in all important sales regions for the upcoming spring season.”

K+S normally does not supply large volumes of potash to India. India typically imports 4.0-4.5 million mt of potash per year, with 100,000-150,000 mt of that total coming from Germany, according to Trade Data Monitor. K+S now has the option of shipping potash from its Bethune project in Saskatchewan, however.

Uralkali also is unhappy with the new India price. “Considering the positive market conditions demonstrated in the second half of 2020 and early 2021, as well as the continuous growth in demand for potassium chloride in the main consumer markets this year, Uralkali believes that the price of the contract signed with India is not in line with the current market trends, and does not meet the interests of leading producers of potash fertilizers,” said Uralkali Trading CEO Alexander Terletskiy.

ICL and Arab Potash Co. (APC) have not publicly commented on the new BPC-IPL deal. Last May, ICL agreed to supply contracts with IPL for an aggregate 410,000 mt of potash, with mutual options for an additional 30,000 mt to be supplied through December 2020. APC did not disclose the volumes negotiated under its supply contract with IPL, which was also reached in May for shipments through 2020.

Brazil:

Prices for MOP jumped about $30/mt in one week, to $280-$295/mt CFR Paranagua, with new offers at $300/mt CFR.

Inland buyers remain uncertain as to what is going on. While prices are moving up, some farmers and farm groups are nervous that the barter rates do not appear to be shifting with the better prices they are slated to get for their crops.

The Rondonopolis MOP price increased on the upper end of the range to $365-$385/mt FOB ex-warehouse, showing the ability of some farmers to still secure a good deal at the lower end. At the same time, the widening of the range also indicates sellers are expecting more for their product and are getting it.

The barter rate for 1 mt of MOP remained stable at 39 bags of corn and 20 bags of soybeans.

Sulfur

Alberta, Brazil, China, Market Watch, Qatar, Sulfur, Tampa, U.S. Gulf, Vancouver, West Coast

Tampa:

A labor strike at the 102,000 barrel/d Marathon Petroleum refinery in St. Paul Park, Minn., spilled into a second week due to stalled contract talks, Reuters reported.

Approximately 200 workers represented by the International Brotherhood of Teamsters Local 120 union have been locked out of the refinery since Jan. 22, approximately 24 hours after a strike was announced. The contract dispute has reportedly hinged on a management demand to replace some union employees with contract workers, argued by the union to be a safety hazard.

The facility has operated with replacement workers during the lockout. No supply disruptions were anticipated.

The first-quarter Tampa molten sulfur contract is valued at $96/lt CFR, up $27/lt from the previous $69/lt CFR contract.

Refinery rates moved higher for the week ending Jan. 29, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported. Refiners operated at 82.3 percent capacity during the period, a 0.6 percent increase from 81.7 percent reported previously. The rate continued to lag both the year-ago 87.4 percent and the 87.5 percent five-year average.

Daily crude inputs were noted lower, however, tracking at an average 14.641 million barrels/d, down 80,000 barrels/d from the 14.721 million barrels/d rate reported previously.

U.S. Gulf:

Genscape reported the Jan. 30 shutdown of a 110,000 barrel/d fluidic catalytic cracking unit (FCC) at the Shell refinery in Norco, La. The plant’s 250,000 barrel/d crude section has reportedly been operating at reduced capacity since Jan. 10.

A 140,000 barrel/d crude distillation unit (CDU) and 95,500 barrel/d vacuum distillation unit (VDU) were reported offline at the LyondellBasell Ind. refinery in Houston, Texas, on Feb. 2. Ongoing technical difficulties observed at the plant were likely to prompt further outages in the days ahead, Genscape noted.

Lyondell CEO Bob Patel announced plans to hold operating rates at roughly 80 percent at the company’s Houston refinery through the first quarter, according to Reuters. The facility operated at a similar level in the third and fourth quarters of 2020 due to the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic. Outputs at the 263,000 barrel/d refinery were not projected to return to pre-pandemic levels prior to second-half 2021.

Gulf export price ideas were heard in the $118-$125/mt FOB range for the week, based on potential netbacks into Morocco and Brazil.

Brazil:

Sources quoted last-done Brazil spot interest at $148/mt CFR and rising, an increase from $140-$145/mt FOB published previously. Limited first-quarter contracts were heard at $116-$119/mt CFR.

Vancouver:

Price ideas at Vancouver were reported firming to the $135-$140/mt FOB range based on rising values at China.

Alberta:

Alberta sulfur netbacks were heard moving up to (-)$31-(-)$70/mt FOB. The wide spread was said to include values from both molten and prilled tons.

West Coast:

Genscape reported the Jan. 28 shutdown of a 190,000 barrel/d CDU, 105,000 barrel/d VDU, and hydrocracker at the Chevron Corp. refinery in El Segundo, Calif. A 60,000 barrel/d catalytic reforming unit was shut one day later on Jan. 29, while a 70,000 barrel/d vacuum residual hydrotreater was reportedly taken offline on Jan. 25.

Renewed activity was reported from the affected CDU and VDU on the morning of Feb. 4. The affected catalytic reformer and hydrotreater, as well as a sulfur recovery unit, were noted remaining offline on Feb. 4.

Prilled sulfur loading from the West Coast trailed Vancouver higher, moving up to $135-$140/mt FOB, sources said. First-quarter contracts for molten sulfur were noted in the $70-$77/lt FOB range, moving up from $45-$60/lt FOB in the previous quarter.

China:

The International Maritime Organization (IMO) on Jan. 28 described the shipping industry’s transition to 0.5 percent sulfur fuels, popularly dubbed IMO2020, as an “extremely smooth” one.

The reduction from the previous 3.5 percent sulfur level, which was originally announced in October 2016, was initially expected to come at a significant cost to industry stability, driven by supply fears surrounding the new very low sulfur fuel oil (VLSFO), early significant price disparities between VLSFO and heavy fuel oil (HFO), and issues of potential noncompliance by some countries. But the fears proved to be mostly unfounded, IMO said.

“Through 2020, just 55 cases of 0.50 percent-compliant fuel being unavailable had been reported in IMO’s Global Integrated Shipping Information System (GISIS),” said Roel Hoenders, Head of Air Pollution and Energy Efficiency at IMO. “Given that more than 60,000 ships plied the world’s oceans in trade last year, this was a remarkably low percentage of ships encountering difficulty in obtaining compliant fuel.”

In addition, IMO noted zero safety issues reported worldwide to-date connected to the VLSFO transition.

The recent China spot sulfur import market was called $162-$170/mt CFR, lifting from $147-$152/mt CFR in the prior report.

Qatar:

Muntajat offers for February loading were reported at $125/mt FOB Ras Laffan, rising $24/mt FOB from $101/mt FOB in January.

Sulfuric Acid

Brazil, Market Watch, Midwest, Sulfuric Acid, U.S. Gulf, West Coast

U.S. Gulf:

Last-done Gulf imports continued in an $80-$85/mt CFR range, sources said. Offers from smelters located in Northwest Europe were expected in a $45-$50/mt FOB range.

Gulf Coast:

Domestic Gulf Coast delivered contracts were quoted in an $85-$110/st DEL range for 2021. Market players reported annual Lower Atlantic contracts at $90-$110/st DEL.

Midwest:

Midwest market agreements were noted even with the Gulf Coast at $85-$110/st DEL, below $90-$120/st DEL reported in 2020.

West Coast:

Sources put West Coast sulfuric acid at $100-$130/st DEL for 2021 agreements.

Brazil:

Price ideas on tons destined into the Brazil market were noted at $85-$90/mt CFR, unchanged from the prior report.

Ammonium Thiosulfate

Amthio, California, Eastern Cornbelt, Market Watch, Pacific N.W., Specialty, Western Cornbelt

Eastern Cornbelt:

Ammonium thiosulfate pricing was quoted at $235-$250/st FOB in the Eastern Cornbelt, with higher numbers out of inland terminals. The Cincinnati market was pegged at $235-$240/st FOB in early February.

Western Cornbelt:

The ammonium thiosulfate market was steady at $225-$245/st FOB in the Western Cornbelt.

California:

The ammonium thiosulfate market was unchanged at $240-$279/st FOB in California, depending on grade and location, with the upper end for 12-0-0-26 and the low for 11-0-0-24 FOB Stockton. Delivered amthio was pegged at $260-$290/st in the state.

Pacific Northwest:

The ammonium thiosulfate market remained at $247/st FOB in Washington, with delivered tons quoted at $250-$270/st in the Pacific Northwest, depending on location. Sources said they expect prices to firm in the near term, however.

Calcium Ammonium Nitrate

Benelux, Calcium Ammonium Nitrate, California, Germany, Market Watch, Pacific N.W., Specialty

California:

CAN-17 pricing remained at $260-$278/st FOB in California, depending on location.

Pacific Northwest:

CAN-17 pricing was steady at $235-$245/st FOB and $255-$265/st DEL for the last reported offers in the Pacific Northwest, but sources said tons remained unavailable at Kennewick, Wash.

Germany/Benelux:

Yara on Feb. 4 announced another price increase for March deliveries of CAN-27 (YaraBelaNitromag) in both Germany and Benelux, less than a week after the last posting for March. The supplier set new prices in both regions at €250/mt bulk CIF, up €10/mt from the previous March list price (GM Jan. 29, p. 20).

The supplier also announced new posted prices for March deliveries of YaraBela Sulfan, with the market firming to €260.50/mt bulk CIF for Germany and €262/mt bulk CIF for Benelux, also up €10/mt from last week’s postings.

NPSZ

Cornbelt, Market Watch, NPSZ, Pacific N.W., Specialty

Cornbelt:

The NPSZ market was pegged at $570-$605/st FOB in the Cornbelt in early February, but sources said higher prices are imminent.

Pacific Northwest:

40-Rock postings as of Feb. 1 were reported at $655-$675/st truck-DEL in the Pacific Northwest, depending on location, but firmed again on Feb. 4 to roughly $685-$705/st DEL in the region.