Eastern Cornbelt:
The 10-34-0 market was quoted firmly at the $415-$430/st FOB range in the Eastern Cornbelt, depending on location and time of shipment.
Western Cornbelt:
10-34-0 pricing remained at $415-$430/st FOB in the Western Cornbelt, with the upper end of the range reported in the Iowa market.
Southern Plains:
The 10-34-0 market was reported at $415-$425/st FOB in the Kansas market, with 11-37-0 pricing pegged at $455-$475/st FOB in Texas, depending on location.
U.S. Gulf:
While early-week potash barge business was still being reported in the $260-$265/st FOB range, sources said midweek prices had easily topped the $270/st mark, with $272/st FOB concluded. Those levels were up from last week’s $250-$262/st FOB range.
Eastern Cornbelt:
The potash market was reported at $305-$330/st FOB in the Eastern Cornbelt, with the low out of spot river locations and the high reflecting inland warehouse postings from Canadian producers for Q2 tons. The bulk of river terminal prices in late January fell in the $310-$325/st FOB range.
Canadian producers reported a heavy order book for Q2 at the higher $325-$330/st FOB postings that took effect in December, with another increase possible before spring due to an empty supply chain.
Western Cornbelt:
The potash market remained at $305-$325/st FOB regional warehouses in the Western Cornbelt, with the low confirmed at Caruthersville and St. Louis.
Southern Plains:
Potash pricing was quoted at $305-$315/st FOB Houston and Catoosa/Inola, with delivered prompt tons in central Texas pegged at $330-$340/st. Reference pricing from Intrepid FOB Carlsbad, N.M., remained at $380/st FOB for 60 percent white and $387/st FOB for 62 percent white standard.
South Central:
Potash prices were quoted at $305-$315/st FOB warehouses in the South Central region, up $10/st from last report.
Southeast:
Potash imports out of port terminals in the Southeast were pegged at $305-$310/st FOB in late January, depending on location, with the Wilmington market quoted at a solid $308/st FOB. Rail-DEL offers ranged from $330-$350/st in the Southeast, depending on grade, location, and point of origin.
Brazil:
The MOP price range spread out in Brazil. Sources now call the market $255-$265/mt CFR in Paranagua, dropping the low end by $5/mt from last report. Sources expect to see the price fluctuate for a couple of months, but eventually move up to $270/mt CFR by the Brazilian winter in June.
While the portside price has shifted a bit, the price at Rondonopolis has shown much more movement, and is now pegged at $365-$372/mt FOB ex-warehouse. Sorriso, on the other hand, settled with deals at $350/mt FOB ex-warehouse, right in the middle of the range quoted by traders.
The barter rate for 1 mt of MOP is still 20 bags of soybeans. The ratio for corn exchanges changed to 55 bags this week, up from 44 bags last week.
| Brazil MOP Prices | ||
| Terminal/City | US$/mt FOB | |
| Week ending 01/22 | Week Ending 01/29 | |
| Rondonopolis | 314-345 | 365-372 |
| Sorriso | 345-355 | 345-355 |
Russia:
January-November 2020 MOP exports from Russian totaled 8.6 million mt, up from the 7.9 million mt reported during the same period in 2019, according to Trade Data Monitor. Exports fell to 772,000 mt in November 2020, however, compared with 810,000 mt in November 2019.
Brazil was the main buyer of Russian MOP in the first 11 months of 2020, taking 2.4 million mt, down from the 2019 total of 2.6 million mt. China was second at 1.7 million mt, also down from the 2019 figure of 1.9 million mt.
India:
Belarusian Potash Co. (BPC) said on Jan. 29 it has concluded negotiations with Indian Potash Ltd. (IPL) and has signed a new annual contract to supply 800,000 mt of potash to the Indian market at a price of $247/mt CFR. The new price is a $17/mt increase on 2020’s contract price of $230/mt CFR with 180 days’ credit, which was agreed to in May and which was a $50/mt drop on the previous contract price reached in October 2019.
“Considering the importance of such a contract for both Indian and global markets of potash fertilizers, BPC and IPL managed to reach a settlement that would support the stability of global potash market with the potential for further strengthening of prices,” said BPC.
The Belarus company is the first supplier to agree a new supply contract with IPL, India’s biggest potash importer. Traditionally, other suppliers and Indian buyers agree to the same price as negotiated by the first supplier to reach a deal.
Canpotex was the first company last year to settle a new supply contract with India, agreeing new contracts with IPL in mid-May (GM May 15, 2020).
Ahead of the BPC announcement, Russia’s VTB Capital analysts, including Elena Sakhnova, wrote in a note cited by Bloomberg that they expected long-term contracts with India and China to be signed at $20/mt year-over-year higher by the end of the first quarter of 2021. They believe a potash recovery is “in full swing” after prices slumped to 10-year lows in April.
Tampa:
The global refining industry is poised to make a partial recovery in 2021 after a battering from coronavirus-related throughput reductions in 2020, according to a recent analysis by the International Energy Administration (IEA) and reported by Platts.
Worldwide throughput was projected at 78.9 million barrels/d for 2021, rising from an average 76.9 million barrels/d in 2020. Global production was noted falling 7.2 percent year-over-year at the peak of the pandemic before clawing back in November, shooting 2.6 million barrels/d higher from October to 76.1 million barrels/d, described by the IEA as the industry’s single largest monthly gain in seven years.
Demand growth is expected to outstrip 2021’s projected supply increase, however, which sources described as a potential bullish indicator for refining margins.
Roughly 200 members of the International Brotherhood of Teamsters Local 120 union on Jan. 21 announced a strike at Marathon’s refinery in St. Paul Park, Minn., after failing to agree to terms on an updated labor contract. The previous contract expired on Dec. 31, 2020. Workers voted in December to authorize a strike should negotiations fail, Reuters reported.
Talks were reported to hinge on a demand from Marathon to replace a number of union employees at the 102,000 barrel/d facility with non-union contract workers (GM Jan. 8, p. 16), a move reportedly viewed by the union as a potential safety hazard.
Tampa molten sulfur contracts were valued at $96/lt CFR for delivery in the first quarter, a $27/lt increase from $69/lt CFR in the previous period.
U.S. refinery utilization slipped lower for the period ending Jan. 22, according to the Energy Information Administration (EIA). Capacity softened to 81.7 percent for the week, a 0.8-point decline from 82.5 percent in the previous week, and also trailing both the year-ago 87.2 percent and the 87.1 percent five-year average.
Daily crude inputs were also lower at an average 14.721 million barrels/d, falling 39,000 barrels/d from the previous 14.760 million barrel/d figure.
U.S. Gulf:
Price ideas on the Gulf spot export market were noted firming to $110-$120/mt FOB, based both on available international netbacks and a reported increase in Gulf freight rates.
Brazil:
The Brazil spot import market was noted firming to $140-$145/mt FOB, up from $130-$133/mt FOB in the prior report.
Vancouver:
Last-done at Vancouver continued to be heard in the $110-$118/mt FOB range, steady from the prior report. Rising international values were expected to lift Vancouver into the $120s/mt FOB in the next round of business, although firmer Pacific freight costs were projected to shave $2-3/mt from netbacks in the short term.
Alberta:
Alberta sulfur values remained in a wide (-)$31-(-)$48/mt FOB range, based on netbacks from both molten tons contracted into the U.S. market and prilled material selling through the Vancouver export market.
West Coast:
West Coast prill values were unchanged at $110-$118/mt FOB, but the market was projected to move higher in the near term. Sources described molten sulfur contracts in the $70-$77/lt FOB range for first-quarter loading, an increase from $45-$60/lt FOB in fourth-quarter 2020.
China:
Sources reported spot sulfur cargoes imported to China firming ahead of the Feb. 12 Lunar New Year holiday, which is expected to shut the market for approximately two weeks. Values lifted to $147-$152/mt CFR in recent trading, up from $132-$138/mt CFR at last report.
Qatar:
Muntajat prilled sulfur offers were noted firming to $125/mt FOB Ras Laffan for loading in February, a $24/mt increase from $101/mt in the prior month.
ADNOC:
ADNOC solid sulfur cargoes were expected to follow Muntajat higher in February. January offers were posted at $102/mt FOB Ruwais.
U.S. Gulf:
Sources reported Gulf spot import price ideas firming to $80-$85/mt CFR, up from $70-$75/mt CFR in the prior report.
Aluminum smelters in North America churned out 3.98 million mt of aluminum in 2020, a 4.4 percent year-over-year increase, according to data compiled by the International Aluminum Institute and reported by Platts. December production was reported to total 338,000 mt, increasing from 327,000 mt in November and the year-ago 324,000 mt.
The firmer 2020 numbers represented the industry’s second consecutive annual increase after posting a recent low of 3.77 million mt in 2018. Prior to that, outputs had steadily declined from 4.92 million mt recorded in 2013.
In the domestic U.S. markets, 2021 sulfuric acid contracts were valued at $85-$110/st for delivery to the Midwest, falling from $90-$120/st DEL in the prior year. Reduced West Coast supply uncertainty prompted 2021 contracts to soften to $100-$130/st DEL, down from $110-$150/st DEL in 2020.
Pricing for the Gulf Coast was reported even with the Midwest at $85-$110/st DEL. Sources noted Lower Atlantic contracts falling in the $90-$110/lt DEL range.
Brazil:
Brazil import price ideas were reported at $85-$90/mt CFR, increasing from $75-$80/mt CFR in the prior report.
Eastern Cornbelt:
Ammonium thiosulfate pricing was quoted at $235-$250/st FOB in the Eastern Cornbelt, with the low reported at Cincinnati and the upper end inland.
Western Cornbelt:
Ammonium sulfate pricing remained at $220-$240/st FOB in the Western Cornbelt, depending on location. Spot prices included $225/st FOB Caruthersville and $225-$230/st FOB Camanche, Iowa, with reference pricing from IOC remaining at $230/st FOB St. Louis, $235/st FOB Upper Mississippi River terminals, and $250/st FOB Sioux City, Iowa.
Southern Plains:
The ammonium thiosulfate market was pegged at $175-$215/st FOB in the region, with the low reported at Houston.
South Central:
The ammonium thiosulfate market was pegged at $210-$215/st FOB Memphis, up $5-$10/st from last report.
Germany/Benelux:
Yara this week raised its list prices for CAN-27 (YaraBelaNitromag) again in both Germany and Benelux. The price for March delivery to both regions was €240/mt bulk CIF, a €10/mt increase from the February delivered prices set last week (GM Jan. 22, p. 19).
Yara also announced list prices for YaraBelaSulfan for March deliveries at €250.50/mt bulk CIF for Germany and €252/mt bulk CIF for Benelux. The new listings mark a €10/mt increase on the latest February prices set last week.As with February volumes, Yara said only limited March volume will be available.
Cornbelt:
The NPSZ market was quoted in a broad range at $560-$605/st FOB in the Cornbelt, up some $60/st from last report, depending on location.
Southeast:
The SOP market was quoted at a firm $590/st FOB in the Florida market, up $10-$30/st from last report.
Southern Plains:
Intrepid’s Trio prices FOB Carlsbad were steady at the Dec. 18 postings, which included $290/st for premium, $280/st for granular, $245/st for standard, $355/st for OMRI-listed granular, and $320/st for OMRI-listed standard and fine standard.
Southeast:
SOP Magnesia pricing was up $20-$40/st in Florida, to $340/st FOB for standard and $375/st FOB for premium.
Eastern Cornbelt:
Wintry weather was reported across the Eastern Cornbelt in late January. A storm system brought freezing rain to central Illinois and up to six inches of snow in northern areas of the state on Jan. 26, while another system blanketed parts of central and southern Indiana with 1-3 inches of snow at midweek.
Ohio also got a taste of winter during the week, with multiple bands of lake-effect snow working their way through northern areas of the state as the week progressed.
Western Cornbelt:
A powerful winter storm on Jan. 25-26 dumped more than a foot of snow on parts of Iowa and Nebraska, with Des Moines collecting 12.6 inches and many areas across southern Nebraska seeing anywhere from 8-16 inches of snow.
Large sections of central and southern Iowa were under a winter storm warning early in the week. A winter weather advisory was also in effect at midweek for parts of western Missouri, with up to 2-3 inches of snow expected in some locations in the state.
Southern Plains:
Blustery weather was reported across much of the Southern Plains in late January. A winter weather advisory was in effect for eastern Kansas at midweek, with up to two inches of snow expected in some areas and heavier amounts reported along the Kansas-Nebraska border.
Two separate storm systems also brought cold temperatures and snow to New Mexico during the week, while high-wind warnings were posted for western Texas at midweek. Sources in Oklahoma reported wet conditions at midweek, with a dusting of snow possible in some northern counties as the week progressed.
Sources said the winter precipitation is needed in many areas, with central Texas sources reporting conditions “on the dry side” in late January. One Texas contact said seed corn is being delivered to the farm in parts of the state, with the “early birds” planning to start planting in another 2-3 weeks, provided the region gets more needed moisture.
South Central:
A winter weather advisory was in effect at midweek for parts of southern Kentucky and northern Tennessee, with up to an inch of snow expected in some locations after frequent snow flurries. Temperatures in the upper-30s and low-40s were reported across Louisiana and Mississippi during the week.
Southeast:
Storms were moving through much of the Southeast as the week progressed. Strong thunderstorms were reported in western Alabama on Jan. 25, with scattered showers and gusty winds working their way across northern Georgia on Jan. 26.
A weak tornado was reported in the Tallahassee, Fla., area on Jan. 27, while temperatures across southern Florida climbed to the mid-80s.
Parts of North Carolina and Virginia, by contrast, were hit with freezing rain and up to five inches of snow at midweek. Forecasts warned of heavy accumulation in the North Carolina mountains, while most of the Piedmont received cold rain with chilly temperatures. Local news confirmed widespread power outages across southern Virginia on Jan. 28.
Sources reported some winter application taking place on fruit and vegetables, along with topdress applications on winter wheat in some locations.
