All posts by mickeybarb@charter.net

E.U. Provides Grant for Green Ammonia Production Research Initiative

Ammonia, Europe, News, News Briefs

The European Union framework program for research and innovation, “Horizon 2020,” is providing a grant of approximately DKK 21 million (approximately $3.4 million at current exchange rates) to help a research team at Denmark’s Aarhus University lead a global collaboration aiming to develop new technologies to produce green ammonia.

The research project at the university’s Department of Biological and Chemical Engineering will look at three different new technologies, one of these being an upgrade of the existing Haber-Bosch reactor process, which is the current primary method of producing ammonia. World ammonia production was 182.8 million mt in 2019, according to IFA data – production that currently is far from being sustainable or carbon-free.

It is reported that the team of researchers will look at a Haber-Bosch reactor based on heat from electro-magnetic induction instead of the current heat from incineration. The two other technologies that will be analyzed and assessed are reported to be a plasma-assisted electro-catalytic concept, and an electro-catalytic concept that uses a special catalyst to catalyze ammonia from nitrogen and water at room temperatures.

PhosAgro Sees 5 Percent Rise in 2020 Fertilizer Output & Sales

Ammonium Nitrate, Ammonium Sulfate, DAP/MAP, News, News Briefs, Nitrogen, NPK, Russia, Urea

PhosAgro, Moscow, this week reported that it increased its commercial product output last year by 5 percent to 10.2 million mt, while total fertilizer production also increased 5 percent year-over-year to 9.98 million mt, up from 9.51 million mt.

Fertilizer sales increased 5 percent to 9.95 million mt, versus 9.45 million mt in the previous year. PhosAgro cited increased production volumes and higher demand in its priority markets for the sales growth. Fourth-quarter fertilizer sales totalled 2.04 million mt, a 10 percent decrease on the same prior-year period. The group attributed this downturn to its decision to wait for further potential price increases, which resulted in a large volume of carry-over supplies at the end of December, it said.

Phosphate-based fertilizers sales decreased by 11 percent year-over-year in the fourth quarter, to 1.55 million mt. In addition to the high volume of carryover shipments at the end of 2020, PhosAgro also reduced supplies of DAP/MAP fertilizers to North America (in connection with a review of the petition Mosaic filed against suppliers of phosphate-based fertilizers from Morocco and Russia) and to Europe where price growth was lagging.

The group’s sales of phosphate-based fertilizers to North America in 2020 amounted to about 316,500 mt, down from 592,400 a year earlier, and a decrease of 47 percent year-on-year. Its fourth-quarter phosphate fertilizer sales to North America were down 85 percent year-on-year, to just 25,200 mt. PhosAgro said the flexibility of its distribution network made it possible to ship these fertilizers, without loss, to other markets, including Canada and India.

The Russian fertilizer group highlighted that its synthetic ammonium sulfate (AS) production unit in Cherepovets was ramped up to full capacity (up to 300,000 mt/y) at the beginning of 2021. It said the production increase will reduce the volume of AS purchases from external suppliers by more than half. The group uses the AS as a feedstock for the production of sulfate grades of NPK(S) fertilizers. The group’s AS production in 2020 was just 31,700 mt (compared with 2,100 in 2019).

PhosAgro fertilizer production and sales volumes (‘000 mt)

  2020 2019 % change 4Q-2020 4Q-2019 % change
Fertilizer production 9,980.2 9,508.6 +5 2,443.0 2,346.5 +4
Fertilizer sales 9,954.6 9,452.3 +5 2,044.8 2,275.5 (10)
Phosphate-based & MCP            
             
DAP/MAP 3,203.4 3,204.6 0 535.5 694.8 (23)
NPK 2,924.6 2,775.7 +5 680.7 670.2 +2
NPS 912.2 616.0 +48 192.7 177.6 +9
APP 200.3 198.4 +1 52.2 64.9 (20)
MCP 378.6 377.4 +0.3 83.9 122.9 (32)
PKS 49.8 82.9 (40) 0.3 8.1 (96)
Total 7,668.9 7,255.0 +6 1,545.3 1,738.4 (11)
Nitrogen-based fertilizers            
Urea 1,649.0 1690.9 (3) 341.0 422.0 (19)
AN 618.6 506.4 +22 150.8 115.0 +31
AS 18.1 0 – 7.7 0 –
Total 2,285.7 2,197.3 +4 499.5 537.1 (7)

Ammonia

Ammonia, Black Sea, Eastern Cornbelt, India, Market Watch, Middle East, North Africa, Northwestern Europe, Russia, South Central, Southeast Asia, Southern Plains, Tampa, U.S. Gulf, Western Cornbelt

U.S. Gulf/Tampa:

The Tampa ammonia price for February skyrocketed to $330/mt DEL, up $60/mt from January’s $270/mt. Just last week there was speculation that the price might go up $30/mt, to $300/mt. This week, however, with surging phosphate prices and a new ammonia outage at a second Nutrien plant in Trinidad, sources soon predicted an uptick as high as $70/mt might be in order.

Nutrien announced on Jan. 25 that it had taken one of its ammonia facilities in Trinidad offline due to mechanical issues. It expects the outage to last for an extended period, and the company said it is looking at all options to mitigate the supply impact to customers. Nutrien already had one Trinidad ammonia plant down indefinitely due to market conditions. It now has two ammonia plants in operation in Trinidad.

Yara had just announced that it brought its Tringen I plant back up in Trinidad on Jan. 8 after being down since Dec. 1 due to gas curtailments. In the U.S., Louisiana’s Waggaman plant was scheduled for a major turnaround this month.

Eastern Cornbelt:

Prompt ammonia pricing was quoted at $400/st FOB terminals in Illinois and Indiana, up $10-$20/st from last report. Spring prepay offers firmed to $420-$460/st FOB in the Eastern Cornbelt, depending on location, with the low confirmed at Kingston and Huntington, Ind., and the high at Mount Vernon. Most other terminals in Illinois and Indiana were pegged at the $440/st FOB level for prepay pricing.

Western Cornbelt:

The ammonia market reportedly firmed to $400/st FOB Western Cornbelt terminals for prompt tons. Prepay offers were quoted at $420-$440/st FOB in the region, with the low confirmed at Palmyra, Mo., and the high at Garner, Iowa. Sources reported most terminals in Iowa and Nebraska at the $420/st FOB level for prepay tons in late January.

Southern Plains:

The ammonia market FOB Oklahoma and Kansas production points was quoted at $310-$320/st FOB for prompt and $350-$380/st FOB for spring prepay offers, depending on location, with the higher end of both ranges reported at Verdigris, Okla.

South Central:

Prompt ammonia had reportedly firmed to $285/st FOB Donaldsonville, La., and $300/st FOB Midway, Tenn., for truck tons, up $20-$25/st from last report, with another increase expected in February. No truck tons were reportedly being offered at El Dorado, Ark., or Cherokee, Ala.

Russia:

Togliattiazot said it produced a record 3.041 million mt of ammonia last year, up from 3.019 million mt in 2019. The company also reported that last year it pumped 2.355 million mt of ammonia from its plants via the Togliatti-Odessa pipeline, which is operated by Transammiak, with 2 million mt transported to Odessa Port Plant’s Ukraine storage tanks.

Ammonia exports from Russia for January-November 2020 were put at 3.8 million mt against 4.2 million during the same period in 2019, according to Trade Data Monitor. The two largest buyers were the neighboring countries of Ukraine at 749,000 mt and Estonia at 723,000 mt.

Black Sea:

Sources peg the current Black Sea ammonia market at $237-$268/mt FOB. Sources said the area has limited ammonia tonnage available for export. What is available is being offered by suppliers at $270/mt FOB and up.There are reports that Rossosh has a few tons available for February, but only at the right price.

Middle East:

Limited product means suppliers are just working to meet their contracts. The absence of spot ammonia tons makes it difficult to nail down a new price. However, sources said once some tons are available, the price will most likely be closer to $300/mt FOB instead of the current $280/mt FOB.

North Africa:

Sorfert sold 15,000 mt of ammonia for the U.S. Gulf through Koch at a reported $310/mt FOB, with an announced landed price of $340/mt CFR. Industry watchers are trying to figure out where Koch was able to secure a freight rate of only $30/mt.

The import/export numbers for November 2020 were released by the Moroccan government. Morocco imported 1.7 million mt of ammonia from January through November, against 1.5 million during the same period in 2019, according to Trade Data Monitor. November 2020 imports were put at 138,000 mt against November 2019 imports of 106,000 mt.

The prime supplier for Morocco was Russia. According to the Moroccan numbers, the country imported 735,000 mt from Russia for January-November 2020. However, the Russian export numbers showed it sent 483,000 mt to Morocco. Sources said seeing a difference of 25,000-50,000 mt could easily be explained as the difference between shipping and receiving dates. However, a gap of more than 250,000 mt is a head scratcher.

Northwest Europe:

The ammonia price remains in flux as traders look to the February Baltic number and what, if anything, will happen in the Black Sea. For now, sources are calling the price stable at $300-$320/mt C&F. If the Baltic price moves up as expected in February, the new price could top out in the $330s/mt C&F.

Sources said talks are underway for the February Baltic price. For now, however, the range of $250-$275/mt FOB still holds.Industry watchers said the hot market could see suppliers being much more aggressive in their offers, and perhaps even surpassing the $275/mt FOB mark.

Southeast Asia:

Sources said small ammonia sales show landed prices of about $360/mt CFR to Taiwan, for a netback of $290-$300/mt FOB to Malaysia. The strength in pricing is expected to continue as other ammonia producing markets show rising prices.

India:

No new spot ammonia business was reported in India this week. Sources said the tons flowing in are under long-term contracts at levels much lower than the $310-$312/mt CFR last seen in the spot market. Suppliers are said to be pushing hard to raise their prices, and buyers are pushing just as hard to at least hold at the current levels.

Ammonia imports for January-November 2020 came in at 2.3 million mt, just slightly under the 2019 total of 2.4 million mt for the same period, according to Trade Data Monitor.

The value of the ammonia in 2020, according to the reported value to Indian customs, came out to $258.43/mt CFR for January-November 2020, compared with $289.57/mt CFR for the same period in 2019. The material and values reported reflect both spot and cheaper contract tons.

Urea

Africa, Brazil, China, Eastern Cornbelt, India, Indonesia, Market Watch, Mexico, Middle East, Russia, South Central, Southeast, Southern Plains, U.S. Gulf, Ukraine, Urea, Western Cornbelt

U.S. Gulf:

While NOLA granular barge trades for late January and February were put in the $320-$343/st FOB range early in the week, business later in the week was reported at $368/st FOB for both February and March. Prills have been running at about a $20/st FOB premium over granular.

Eastern Cornbelt:

Urea prices were quoted at $365-$385/st FOB Cincinnati, Ohio, up another $10-$20/st from last report, with the higher numbers reported as the week progressed. Pricing out of Illinois terminals ranged from $360-$395/st FOB for prompt or spring tons, depending on location and time of the week, with the upper level confirmed on Jan. 28 for prompt tons on a spot basis.

Western Cornbelt:

Urea pricing at St. Louis, Mo., reportedly firmed from $370/st up to $385/st FOB during the week, while pricing out of spot Iowa terminals ended the week at $385-$395/st FOB for prompt tons. The market FOB Caruthersville, Mo., was quoted solidly at the $370/st FOB level on Jan. 26, with April offers at Wever, Iowa, pegged at $395/st FOB on Jan. 28.

Urea pricing at St. Paul, Minn., had reportedly edged up to as high as $405/st FOB as the week advanced, but some suppliers were no longer quoting prices there late in the week.

Southern Plains:

Sources quoted the Southern Plains urea market firmly at the $380/st level FOB Catoosa/Inola, Okla., and Houston, Texas, at midweek, up $15-$25/st from the previous week and some $95/st higher than spot quotes at the beginning of the year.

Pricing at Borger, Texas, was reported at $365/st FOB early in the week, but sources said an increase was imminent. Truck-DEL urea in central Texas was pegged at the $395-$405/st level at midweek.

South Central:

Urea prices in the South Central region firmed to $370/st FOB Convent, La., $375/st FOB Memphis, Tenn., $370-$380/st FOB Arkansas and Ohio River terminals, and up to $390/st FOB Shreveport, La., during the week. Based on higher NOLA values, sources speculated that terminal values would move to the $400/st FOB level or higher in the near term.

Southeast:

The urea market in the Southeast was quoted at a firm $375/st Wilmington, N.C., Charleston, S.C., and Norfolk, Va., with no tons reportedly available at Savannah, Ga. That level was up $15-$35/st from the previous week, and reflected an increase of $80-$90/st since the start of the year.

China:

Some small urea deals of 8,000-10,000 mt to area buyers have moved the granular market into the $330s/mt FOB. By the end of the week, some traders were reporting sales at $340/mt FOB, but without details of who handled the deals or where the tons are going.Prilled urea out of China has also seen a boost into the upper-$320s/mt FOB.

The price increase is a classic example of more demand chasing limited supply. Chinese producers are seeing a cutback in output for a variety of reasons. The plants are facing reductions in energy to operate, as is most of the Chinese industrial system. Natural gas and electricity are being diverted to cover residential needs.

Regional COVID-19 shutdowns and quarantines are also affecting the plants. In some cases, workers are told to stay home as hot spots pop up. In other cases, truck drivers are forced to stay at home, reducing the number of trucks available to move product from factory to terminal. In still other cases, drivers are not being allowed to pass through townships and villages without being forced to quarantine before passing through. And additionally, the terminals and ports are facing worker shortages due to the disease.

Some plants are already planning to extend the traditional one-week holiday related to the Lunar New Year, which begins on Feb. 12. The idea is to shut down production completely for enough time to allow any COVID-19 hot spots in the area to stop the spread of the disease.

One other issue hitting some of the producers appears to be a renewed effort by the central government to enforce its environmental laws. Sources said some plants have already received notices of what they need to do to be in full compliance. Sources did not point to specific plants that have been affected, however.

Middle East:

Fertiglobe moved the high end of the Arab Gulf urea price to $340/mt FOB with a 40,000 mt granular sale for March loading. The market followed along, with sources now calling the price from the Arab Gulf at $335-$340/mt FOB.

Plant shutdowns in the area for routine maintenance are keeping the supply of urea tight just as demand is picking up. The situation is getting so tight that rumors were circulating by the end of the week that deals are now under discussion at $345-$355/mt FOB.

Some producers have already mentioned that prices should be closer to $365/mt FOB. One trader said acceptance of these higher prices will depend on loading times and how much buyers will push back. So far, sources noted, buyers have been grabbing everything that comes available at ever-higher prices.

Egyptian prices keep moving up as well.At the beginning of the week, Helwan sold 15,000 mt of granular urea at $360/mt FOB for an April loading. At the same time, Abu Qir sold 8,000 mt of granular at $362/mt FOB and 6,000 mt of prilled urea at $352/mt FOB, both for March loadings.

As the week ended, MOPCO came in with a deal of 20,000 mt at $365/mt FOB for April, quickly followed by another sale of 5,000 mt at $370/mt FOB, also for an April loading. Sources speculated that all the Egyptian tons are heading to European buyers, who seem to have stepped in a few weeks early for their annual buying program.

The steady climb in Egyptian prices, coupled with the rises in the Arab Gulf and China, are securing much higher prices for producers. The current rate of increase, said one trader, appears to be sustainable and might continue for some time.

Indonesia:

The two urea tenders that closed last week, each with a reserve price of $315/mt FOB, were awarded at higher levels.The Kaltim granular tender for 30,000-40,000 mt closed at $328.70/mt FOB with awards to Ameropa and Samsung.The Gresik tender for 18,000 mt of prilled urea closed at $321.75/mt FOB with the material going to Ameropa and Hertychem.

All material is slated for late February or early March loadings. Sources speculated that some of these tons might be included in a much-anticipated Indian tender if it is called soon.

India:

Sources are now saying they are reverting to their original views that an Indian tender will be called in early February. For the past few weeks, sources have been speculating that the Indian government will lean on the Department of Fertilizer to call a tender sooner rather than later to ease concerns that urea supplies might not be sufficient to kick off the next season.

Some said a contributing factor in delaying the tender until February is the current wave of protests and violent demonstrations by farmers opposing government plans to alter how farmers are paid for their crops. Others said supplies appear to be strong enough to wait a bit longer in the hope that global urea prices will come off. That last hope appears to have faded as each of the major urea producing regions are reporting ever-higher prices.

The government said urea demand for the fiscal year that ends on March 31 is up 9 percent from last year. According to analysts, the increase in demand came because more land was tilled and the monsoon rains were exceptionally good for agricultural output.

Local distributors said they prefer the current situation. Some told local media that the farmers are taking product out of the local warehouses fast enough that the seller does not have to incur major storage costs, leaving them with a better netback on their sales.

In addition to the more rapid movement of urea from distributors to the farms, sources said the government has stepped up the process of paying off the subsidies it owes to manufacturers and importers.

According to Trade Data Monitor, India imported 10 million mt of urea for January-November 2020 against 9.7 million mt in the same period of 2019. This number does not include the 1.27 million mt awarded in the MMTC tender of December 2020.

The average value of the tonnage bought in 2020, according to figures reported by the Indian government, was $261.29/mt CFR, against $278.47/mt CFR for the same period in 2019. These values included urea purchased under the tenders and from the long-term contract with OMIFCO that expired in mid-2020.

As a point of reference, the average prices of the eight tenders that took place during the same 2020 period were $259.40/mt CFR for the West Coast and $260.05/mt CFR for the East Coast.

China was the main supplier to India in both 2019 and 2020, with 3 million mt in each year. Second came Oman with 2.8 million mt in 2019 and 2.4 million mt in 2020. As mentioned earlier, the supply agreement from the Oman-based OMIFCO plant lapsed in mid-2020, allowing the producer to move some of its product to other markets.

India Urea Imports
Source Country Jan-Nov 2019 Jan-Nov 2020
Quantity Average US$/mt Quantity Average US$/mt
World 9,688,552 278.47 10,055,971 261.29
China 2,993,344 312.07 2,944,701 275.85
Oman 2,785,748 224.35 2,429,776 231.50
Egypt 460,090 290.60 934,408 265.50
Ukraine 295,808 283.38 779,961 260.03
United Arab Emirates 775,761 288.47 704,061 272.96
Indonesia 496,820 285.86 682,861 274.68

Ukraine:

Urea exports from Ukraine for January-November 2020 were reported at 1.4 million mt, more than double the 637,000 mt exported during the same period in 2019. November 2020 imports were put at 248,000 mt, according to Trade Data Monitor, against November 2019 imports of 158,000 mt.

Russia:

Togliattiazot confirmed 2020 urea output at 839,000 mt, a 7 percent increase over the previous year’s production of 785,000 mt and the highest output reported by the company since 1991.

Trade Data Monitor reported Russian urea exports at 6.5 million mt for January-November 2020, up slightly from the 6.3 million mt exported during the same period in 2019. The main buyer of Russian urea in 2020 was Brazil at 1 million mt, followed by Finland at 952,000 mt and Estonia at 639,000 mt.

Brazil:

Urea prices moved up to $365-$380/mt in Paranagua, representing at least a $20/mt jump. Some are even calling the upper end of the market at $390/mt CFR. While sellers were pleased to see rates move up, many in the industry are preparing for prices to drop by the end of the first quarter.

The uncertainty in the market is leading some buyers to hold off on making long-term buying commitments. Sources said inland buyers in particular are hesitant to jump in with big orders for urea at this time.

Rondonopolis is now reporting prices at $470-$480/mt FOB ex-warehouse. The purchases appear to be buyers taking only tonnage they need, without looking at any distant commitments. The situation is repeated in Sorriso, where prices firmed to $483-$497/mt FOB ex-warehouse, up from $445-$492/mt FOB at last report.

The barter rate for 1 mt of urea shifted back to 60 bags of corn after last week’s level of 50 bags.

Brazil Urea Prices
Terminal/City US$/mt FOB ex-warehouse
Week ending 01/12 Week Ending 01/29
Rondonopolis 360-380 470-480
Sorriso 445-492 483-497

Mexico:

Urea imports in Mexico were put at 1.8 million mt for the first 11 months of 2020, according to Trade Data Monitor, compared with 1.5 million mt for the same period in 2019. November 2020 imports were pegged at 127,000 mt, against 68,000 mt for November 2019.

Russia was the main supplier to Mexico in both the 2020 and 2019 periods, at 574,000 mt and 716,000 mt, respectively. The big winners in obtaining new sales into Mexico were suppliers from Indonesia at 214,000 mt, and Oman at 101,000 mt.

Nigeria:

Sources said the new Dangote urea plant is expected to start production in time to begin serving Nigeria’s late-winter and full spring demand. After taking care of local demand, the management of the 3 million mt/y facility is expected to turn to exports to Latin America. There are already reports that traders in Brazil are anticipating receiving the tons.

UAN

Eastern Cornbelt, Market Watch, South Central, Southeast, Southern Plains, U.S. Gulf, UAN, Western Cornbelt

U.S. Gulf:

NOLA UAN barges for February were reported in the $160-$165/st ($5.00-$5.16/unit) FOB range. Sources said finding any near-term product was difficult, however, with much February product sold weeks ago at $122-$130/st FOB.

Most NOLA quotes circulating this week were for April/May and were at $180-$185/st FOB, with some predicting the market would hit $200/st before the run-up stops.

Eastern Cornbelt:

UAN-32 prices in the Eastern Cornbelt started the week at $210-$217/st ($6.56-$6.78/unit) FOB regional terminals for spring tons, but another round of posting hikes from CF Industries on Jan. 27 pushed levels up from there. The latest reference prices are CF’s fourth UAN-32 price increase since the first of the year.

New UAN-32 postings were up $15-$20/st from the previous list prices on Jan. 21, and included May-June offers at $225/st ($7.03/unit) FOB Jeffersonville and Mount Vernon, Ind.; $227/st ($7.09/unit) FOB Cincinnati and Kingston, Ill.; $229/st ($7.16/unit) FOB Peru, Ill.; and $235/st $7.34/unit) FOB Albany, Ill.

CF’s Jan. 27 postings at Terra Haute, Ind., included $235/st ($7.34/unit) for prompt and $240/st ($7.50/unit) FOB for April-May, with Burns Harbor, Ind., also referenced at the $240/st ($7.50/unit) FOB level for April-May tons. New UAN-32 prices FOB Michigan terminals ranged from $245-$260/st ($7.66-$8.13/unit) FOB, with the low at Schoolcraft for April-May tons and the upper end at Muskegon for April-June shipments.

Western Cornbelt:

The UAN-32 market was quoted at $210-$225/st ($6.56-$7.05/unit) FOB Western Cornbelt terminals, up another $10-$15/st from last report, depending on location and time of shipment, with the upper end reflecting the Jan. 27 posting at St. Louis for May-June tons.

Southern Plains:

UAN-32 pricing at regional production points in the Southern Plains began the week at $180-$190/st ($5.63-$5.94/unit) FOB, but sources said the market had edged up to $195-$200/st ($6.09-$6.25/unit) FOB by midweek.

South Central:

UAN-32 prices were moving up in the South Central region. Prompt tons were quoted at $195-$200/st ($6.09-$6.25/unit) FOB Memphis, up $30/st from early January. CF postings as of Jan. 27 firmed to $200/st ($6.25/unit) FOB Yazoo City, Miss., for April-May tons, while Kentucky sources said offers for May-June tons out of Ohio River terminals firmed from $213/st ($6.66/unit) up to $225/st ($7.03/unit) FOB during the week.

Southeast:

Sources tagged the low end of the UAN-32 market in the Southeast at $185-$190/st ($5.78-$5.94/unit) FOB Georgia terminals earlier in the week. As the week progressed, however, UAN-32 pricing out of port terminals reportedly firmed from $200/st ($6.25/unit) FOB up to the $220/st ($6.88/unit) FOB level, with a scant supply of incoming vessel tons.

Ammonium Nitrate

Ammonium Nitrate, France, Market Watch, South Central, Southeast, Southern Plains, U.S. Gulf, Western Cornbelt

U.S. Gulf:

With inland and Yazoo City ammonium nitrate prices quickly moving up, price ideas for the little-tested NOLA market also went up to $190-$200/ FOB.

Western Cornbelt:

The ammonium nitrate market was quoted at $290-$300/st FOB in the Western Cornbelt, up $40/st from last report, with the upper end confirmed at Caruthersville.

Southern Plains:

The ammonium nitrate market was moving up in the wake of stronger urea pricing, with new levels quoted firmly at the $280/st level FOB Catoosa/Inola, up some $55-$65/st from last report.

South Central:

Ammonium nitrate pricing was firming in the South Central region. Sources said the market FOB Yazoo City firmed from $210/st up to $250/st FOB during the week, with upriver terminals pegged at the $280/st FOB mark.

Southeast:

Ammonium nitrate pricing at Tampa was quoted at the $275/st FOB level for recent import business, with speculation that higher numbers are likely in the near term.

France:

Yara posted a set of new nitrate prices this week, setting the list price for March deliveries of its 33.5 percent ammonium nitrate (YaraBelaExtran33.5) in France at €305/mt bulk CPT. The posting marks a €15/mt hike on its latest February delivered prices, announced only last week (GM Jan. 22, p. 8).

As with February volumes, Yara said only limited March volume will be available.

Ammonium Sulfate

Ammonium Sulfate, Brazil, China, Eastern Cornbelt, Market Watch, South Central, Southeast, Southern Plains, U.S. Gulf, Western Cornbelt

U.S. Gulf:

While ammonium sulfate barge business was reported to have recently occurred at $185/st FOB, in the current environment most sources had no reason to doubt that recent producer postings of $200/st FOB could be achieved.

Eastern Cornbelt:

The ammonium sulfate market remained at $220-$240/st FOB in the Eastern Cornbelt, depending on location, with the Cincinnati market pegged at $225-$230/st FOB. AdvanSix on Jan. 28 increased its ammonium sulfate postings by another $10/st, effective immediately, across its entire system.

Western Cornbelt:

Ammonium sulfate pricing remained at $220-$240/st FOB in the Western Cornbelt, depending on location. Spot prices included $225/st FOB Caruthersville and $225-$230/st FOB Camanche, Iowa, with reference pricing from IOC remaining at $230/st FOB St. Louis, $235/st FOB Upper Mississippi River terminals, and $250/st FOB Sioux City, Iowa.

Southern Plains:

The granular ammonium sulfate market ranged broadly at $205-$230/st FOB in the Southern Plains, depending on location, with the Catoosa/Inola market pegged firmly at the $225/st FOB level in late January. IOC’s Jan. 13 postings for ammonium sulfate included $230/st FOB Houston and $235/st rail-DEL in the Southern Plains.

South Central:

Ammonium sulfate pricing had reportedly firmed to $210-$230/st FOB in the South Central region, up $5/st from last report, with the low at Memphis. Sources reported most Arkansas terminals at the $225/st FOB level in late January, while Jan. 13 reference pricing from IOC included $230/st FOB Delta terminals.

Southeast:

AdvanSix on Jan. 28 raised ammonium sulfate prices by $10/st across its entire system, effective immediately. The increase takes granular prices up to $245/st FOB Hopewell, Va., and follows an earlier $10/st increase that raised the granular price on Jan. 20 to $235/st FOB. Standard grade was reported at $185-$195/st FOB in the Florida market.

China:

The ammonium sulfate market remains tight in China. Production has been cut back because of shutdowns related to COVID-19 and the limits placed on operating energy facing all industrial plants. Sources put the market at $120-$125/mt FOB for caprolactam grade ammonium sulfate. The granular price is reportedly at $150/mt FOB and up, when it is available.

Brazil:

The landed price for granular ammonium sulfate remains at $160-$165/mt CFR at Paranagua. Sources are said to be waiting for a price increase following reports of tighter supplies and higher prices coming out of China, Brazil’s main offshore supplier.

Rondonopolis and Sorriso remain steady in their pricing. The price in Rondonopolis is pegged at $245-$255/mt FOB ex-warehouse, with the Sorriso prices at $260-$311/mt FOB ex-warehouse.

The barter rate fluttered a bit, however. Sources said 1 mt of ammonium sulfate now goes for 39 bags of corn, compared with 37 bags last week and 40 bags at the beginning of the month.

DAP/MAP

Brazil, Central Florida, China, DAP/MAP, Eastern Cornbelt, India, Market Watch, Morocco, Russia, Saudi Arabia, South Central, Southeast, Southern Plains, U.S. Exports, U.S. Gulf, Western Cornbelt

Central Florida:

Central Florida DAP trucks were noted firming to $485/st FOB for the week, rising from $415-$430/st FOB at last report. Sources quoted truck-loaded MAP in a wide $475-$505/st FOB range, up from $440-$460/st FOB, with availability at the low end of the range described as “extremely tight.”

U.S. Gulf:

The NOLA barge phosphate markets continued to rocket higher during the week, sources said, driven by an ongoing supply crunch and expectations of an early spring planting season.

Nearby DAP barges were quoted in the $475-$480/st FOB range in early-week trading, with tons reportedly changing hands at $490-$525/st FOB on Jan. 27-28.

The nearby availability of MAP barges was described as practically nonexistent. Tons earmarked for March loading were quoted at $545-$550/st FOB, a sharp increase from the week-ago $470/st FOB March high, while price ideas for nearby loading were universally projected to land north of $500/st FOB at the start of the next trading week if material becomes available. Sources noted nearby price ideas moving considerably higher by Jan. 28.

Sources described the week’s DAP market trading in a wide $475-$525/st FOB range, firming from $410-$430/st FOB at last report. Price ideas for MAP barges were typically floated in the $500-$550/st FOB range, increasing from $440-$460/st FOB in the prior report.

U.S. Exports:

Mosaic reported a pair of phosphate cargoes sold into a single destination in northern Latin America, including an 8,000 mt DAP cargo priced at $460/mt FOB and a 5,000 mt MAP shipment fetching $470/mt FOB. The tons were projected to load in first-half March.

Based on reported trades, the Gulf DAP export market firmed to $460/mt FOB for the week, and MAP values moved higher to $470/mt FOB. Both markets were reported in the $430-$450/mt FOB range one week earlier.

Eastern Cornbelt:

DAP pricing surged to $505-$530/st FOB in the Eastern Cornbelt, up $55-$60/st from the previous week, with the low reported in the Illinois market as the week began. Sources attributed the rapidly firming prices to ongoing tight supply and expectations for a heavy and potentially early spring season. The Cincinnati DAP market was pegged at $515-$525/st FOB at midweek.

MAP prices jumped even higher, firming to $550-$595/st FOB in the region in late January, depending on location and time of shipment. Sources quoted the Cincinnati MAP market at $550-$560/st FOB at midweek, but prices climbed as the week ended.

Western Cornbelt:

Tight supply and expectations for heavy spring demand pushed DAP prices in the Western Cornbelt up to $500-$540/st FOB, up $60-$70/st from last report, depending on location and time of the week. Sources said the St. Louis market started the week at $500/st before firming to $530-$540/st FOB, while Caruthersville pricing was pegged solidly at the $530/st FOB level on Jan. 26.

The DAP market FOB Dubuque, Iowa, was quoted at $530-$540/st FOB, with the St. Paul market reported at $525-$550/st FOB for the week.

MAP was pegged at $555-$595/st FOB in the Western Cornbelt, again reflecting a wide range as pricing firmed during the week. Sources pegged the St. Louis market at $580-$595/st FOB at midweek, with pricing at Dubuque reported solidly at the $595/st FOB level on Jan. 28.

Southern Plains:

DAP pricing was quoted at $515-$540/st FOB Catoosa/Inola, up a full $70-$75/st from last report, with the lower numbers confirmed early in the week. The market FOB Houston was reported firmly at the $535/st FOB level at midweek, with delivered tons ranging from $550-$560/st in central Texas.

MAP pricing had reportedly jumped to $555/st FOB Houston and $585/st FOB Catoosa/Inola, provided any available tons could be located. Some sources were quoting the Catoosa/Inola MAP market closer to the $600/st FOB level late in the week.

South Central:

Warehouse DAP prices were reported at $510-$530/st FOB in the South Central region, up a full $75/st from the prior week, with the high confirmed in the Arkansas market and the low reported earlier in the week at Memphis and out of spot river warehouses in Kentucky.

Southeast:

DAP and MAP prices at Aurora, N.C., firmed to $480/st FOB during the week, up $15/st from the previous week and some $45-$50/st higher than postings at the beginning of the year.

Saudi Arabia:

Phosphates loading from Saudi Arabia were valued in the $400-$405/mt FOB range, lifting from $390-$395/mt FOB reported one week earlier.

China:

The price of DAP has moved up dramatically, with producers pushing for even higher levels with limited stocks. Sources put the price at $440-$445/mt FOB, with producers quoting $500-$505/mt FOB at week’s end.

Sources said hitting the $500/mt FOB mark is a target for the producers, but not one that will be hit soon. Traders are expecting to see $450/mt FOB on the table as the new week begins, however.

There is limited DAP for the same reason other products are in short supply out of China. COVID-19 restrictions, limited energy to run the plants, and stepped-up environmental inspections are all hitting the phosphate producers. The COVID-19 situation is of particular concern because so many of the phosphate plants are in areas hit with sporadic hot spots, forcing complete closures of shops and factories.

In addition, the Lunar New Year, when workers traditionally get a week off, begins on Feb. 12. Many of the plant operators are extending the so-called Golden Week to two weeks in a move designed to help address workplace restrictions to combat the coronavirus.

India:

Buyers have indicated they might be willing to go up in their DAP pricing ideas. Unfortunately for them, said one trader, their ideas for a delivered price are still below the export price set by producers from Saudi Arabia to China.

Few buyers appear willing to break the $400/mt CFR level. The lowest price offered out of China this week was $440/mt FOB, with a more realistic price closer to $445/mt FOB. Likewise, the Saudis are reportedly also claiming their price is around $400/mt FOB.

So far, DAP is not in strong demand in India. Sources said a few recent inquiries have led to talks, but nothing has been settled.

Trade Data Monitor reported that India imported 6 million mt of DAP for January-November 2020, against 5.6 million mt during the same period in 2019. November 2020 imports were at 505,000 mt against 490,000 mt in 2019.

Saudi Arabia, China, and Morocco were the main suppliers of DAP in 2020, sending a total of 4.8 million mt during the first 11 months of the year. The imports included more expensive spot tons and a lot of lower-cost contracted material. The average price for DAP during the first 11 months of 2020 was calculated by Trade Data Monitor at $328.38/mt CFR, compared with $379.23/mt CFR for the same period in 2019.

Russia:

Exports of DAP were down slightly in the January-November 2020 period compared with 2019. The export number for 2020 was reported at 1.39 million mt, against 1.45 million mt for the same period in 2019. Sources said the difference was probably due to just one less cargo recorded in 2020 or one extra in 2019.

November 2020 exports were reported at 131,000 mt, up from 100,000 mt in November 2019. The main recipient in November 2020 was Kenya, which took 27,000 mt of DAP. The rest of the buyers took less than 20,000 mt each that month.

Morocco:

Morocco exported 4.4 million mt of DAP for January-November 2020, compared with 2.6 million mt for the same period in 2019, Trade Data Monitor reported. India was the main buyer at 1.3 million mt in 2020, with Brazil second at 966,000 mt.

Brazil:

Market watchers noted import MAP values firming to $485-$490/mt CFR for the week, rising from $445-$450/mt CFR in the prior report. Traders are calling the market at $485-$490/mt CFR at Paranagua, with sellers targeting $550/mt CFR. Trading rumored at $500-$510/mt CFR went unconfirmed on Jan. 28.

Inland buyers are especially concerned about the apparent lack of MAP. At the same time, sellers are not advertising their prices because of the highly fluid nature of the market.

Rondonopolis is now pegged at $592-$610/mt FOB ex-warehouse, against a high price of $561/mt FOB one week earlier. The lower end of Sorriso held even, but the upper edge jumped about $30/mt to $610/mt FOB. The barter rate for 1 mt of MAP shifted to 75 bags of corn or 21 bags of soybeans.

Brazil MAP Prices
Terminal/City US$/mt FOB
  Week ending 01/22 Week Ending 01/29
Rondonopolis 530-561 592-610
Sorriso 540-569 540-610

TSP

Market Watch, South Central, Triple Superphosphate, U.S. Gulf, Western Cornbelt

U.S. Gulf:

TSP barges loading from NOLA were reported trading in the $340-$378/st FOB range for the week, with offers pushing to $385/st FOB on Jan. 27-28. The market was previously quoted at $315-$340/st FOB.

Western Cornbelt:

The TSP market firmed to $410-$420/st FOB in the Western Cornbelt in late January, up $50/st from last report.

South Central:

The TSP market out of South Central terminals was pegged at $395-$420/st FOB, up $45-$60/st from last report, with the low at Memphis and the high at Little Rock, Ark.

Phosphoric Acid

Eastern Cornbelt, India, Market Watch, Phosphoric Acid, Southern Plains, Western Cornbelt

Eastern Cornbelt:

Phos acid pricing remained at $11.45-$11.55/unit rail-DEL in the Eastern Cornbelt for January tons, but an increase is expected in February.

Western Cornbelt:

Phos acid was steady at $11.35/unit rail-DEL in Nebraska, Missouri, and Iowa for January tons.

Southern Plains:

The phos acid market for January shipment remained $11.35/unit rail-DEL in Colorado, Kansas, and New Mexico, and $11.45/unit rail-DEL in Texas and Louisiana.

India:

No new settlements were reported for the India phosphoric acid market. Fourth-quarter 2020 contracts were valued at $689/mt CFR, with prices generally expected to follow the international phosphate markets higher in the first quarter.