Yara International ASA, while announcing a tripling of earnings for the second quarter ending June 30 (GM July 19, p. 13), also points to a positive outlook going forward. “We are running at close to full production capacity, including NPK,” Jørgen Ole Haslestad, Yara president and CEO, told analysts. “The fertilizer demand is backed by a tightening grain market as demand is strong, while yield estimates were lowered recently from USDA ….”
Yara also says ammonia demand has improved sharply from last year due to the return of industrial demand and a strong phosphate market. The company noted that while Ukraine has increased its exports from year-ago levels, they are still well below full capacity.
On urea, Yara noted recent price increases and said that while the Chinese have material to export, these volumes are not expected to be offered below $260/mt for granular, supporting recent price increases in the Black Sea. Yara also noted that coal prices in China are higher, and it pointed out the recent appreciation of the Chinese currency. The company said that both factors might boost the chances for higher prices from China.
Yara said that another positive is India’s new subsidy scheme, which is creating a new market for NPK imports into India. Yara said it has run its NPK plants at close to full capacity since early January without stock build-up as phosphate demand has recovered, giving strongly improved margins, while potash deliveries remain subdued.
In the past few years, Yara has been very vocal about the impact high potash prices have had upon its NPK business. It told analysts July 16 that it is investing in a potash project in Ethiopia. “I think our starting point is that we have seen the potash price that is (at a) sufficiently high level to find it interesting to evaluate the mine in Ethiopia,” said Hallgeir Storvik, Yara CFO and head of strategy. “… But we are putting some rather small money into the project to evaluate it. And I think it is a business idea that could have an interesting potential if some of those risk hurdles that we face in areas like Ethiopia in relation to developing such a potential mine will be sorted out. So we are reasonably optimistic in relation to the opportunities around that project.”
Yara said it would not comment on how much it has invested in the Ethiopian project, except to say that it is in a pre-study/feasibility phase. At least three groups have been prospecting for potash in Ethiopia in the past few years – Allana Potash, BHP Billiton, and Indian firm Sainik Potash. Yara said it was not involved with Allana and did not specify in which venture it is invested. Sources close to Sainik say it is the one with Yara connections.
Compared to the price of other nutrients, Haslestad said Yara would like to see a potash price below $300/mt.
Yara said NPK margins were better in the first half of 2010 than in the reasonably good years of 2006 and 2007. It said with lower potash prices it has been able to get NPK margins back to normal levels.
One concern is natural gas prices, with Yara worried over the higher European gas prices versus those in the U.S. However, it noted that its Canadian plant, Belle Plaine, has lower gas prices than even the Henry Hub in the U.S. Yara said Belle Plaine has had extremely good earnings.
While Yara global fertilizer deliveries were down 9 percent in the second quarter, the company noted that year-ago margins were low as producers reduced stocks from high levels. Industrial volumes increased 21 percent, with higher volumes for all main product groups.
| Sales (000 mt) |
2Q-10 |
2Q-09 |
YTD-10 |
YTD-09 |
| Fertilizer |
4,759 |
4,759 |
5,210 |
9,888 |
10,092 |
| Industrial |
1,046 |
866 |
2,043 |
1,740 |
| Total |
5,805 |
6,076 |
11,931 |
11,832 |
In other news, Yara said it is taking a NOK18 million (US$23.2 million) write-down as a result of the planned sale of its 25 percent stake in Agrico Canada Ltd. (GM July 12, p. 1). Yara said the expected sales price is below the carrying value, and it recognized the impairment. It said the sales transaction, which is expected to take place in the third quarter, will have a minor impact on its condensed consolidated interim statement of income, and any gain or loss will be included in the downstream segment.
“It is correct that we do not view retail as a core activity, but it does not imply that we limit our scope only to production,” Yara spokesperson Asle Skredderberget told Green Markets. “It means we focus mainly on wholesalers/distributors, as well as our own downstream sales force and agronomists. We recently also sold our South African retail activity. However, in some markets it will still be natural to be present in retail also, due to the structure of the market.”
In addition to the planned sale of its Agrico stake and the sale of South African assets, Yara said that during the second quarter it sold two subsidiaries – Nuova Terni Industrie Chimiche S.p.A. (Italy) and Peremartoni Fertilizers Kft (Hungary). It also sold its shares in Carbonor, a joint venture company, back in January. And as previously reported, it sold its 15.5 percent stake in Fosfertil, as well as its 50 percent stake in the Anitapolis phosphate rock project, to Vale S.A.
Yara said the company was recently misquoted when it was reported by a wire service that it plans to gain a 20 percent share of the nitrogen market. “It is correct that our global market share is approx 6.5-7 percent,” Skredderberget told Green Markets. “However, the 20 percent is based on a misinterpretation. What Mr. Haslestad said was that consolidation is good, we support it, and we intend to be part of it. He used the 20 percent as a picture of how a global industry looks when it is consolidated, i.e., that the biggest players have a share of about 17-20 percent. It was a general example, and not a stated ambition on how much we want to grow. We do not want to quantify our growth ambition.
“It is important to note that from a customer point of view a consolidated market implies more stable prices and less volatility,” Skredderberget added. “Economies of scale give the opportunity to increase or maintain margins through cost.