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The Week in Fertilizer Stocks

Producer Symbol Price Week Ago Year Ago
Agrium AGU 38.03 39.90 62.72
CF Industries CF 72.67 74.00 105.89
Intrepid Potash IPI 20.05 20.31 N/A
Mosaic MOS 43.87 48.20 100.17
PotashCorp POT 84.76 89.30 161.09
Terra Industries TRA 27.65 30.07 36.19
Terra Nitrogen TNH 140.00 141.78 101.29
Distribution/Retail
Andersons Inc. ANDE 15.02 14.44 44.95
Deere & Co. DE 36.07 35.92 79.82
Scotts SMG 36.78 36.50 34.98

CF scratches Agrium offer; Agrium counters in latest round of fertilizer cat fight

The fertilizer cat fight continued last week, with CF Industries Holdings Inc. landing some scratches on Agrium Inc. when it rejected the company’s takeover offer on March 23. However, by the end of a call with analysts, CF was indicating that an offer of over $100 per share versus the original $72 per share might just be the catnip to make CF purr.

On Friday, March 27, Agrium responded with an increased offer of $35.00 in cash per share, an increase of $3.30, or 10.4 percent, as well as one common share of Agrium for each CF share. This calculates to a per-share offer of $74.90 versus the prior $72. Agrium says this represents a premium of 35 percent to CF’s closing price on Feb. 24, the day before Agrium announced its initial proposal, and 48 percent to the 30-day volume weighted average price through that date.

In rejecting the earlier Agrium offer on March 23, W. Anthony Will, CF vice president, corporate development, laid the groundwork for CF’s offensive by telling analysts that as Agrium rushed to pursue its strategy of growing retail, it is clear they have “taken their eye off the ball on executing nitrogen manufacturing expansion projects.”

Will said Agrium had to write off the entire investment on its Kenai, Alaska, nitrogen project, and then had a net write-off of $45 million when it had to abandon its Egyptian project due to community protests and environmental concerns. Agrium went on to trade its equity interest in a minority stake in MOPCO fertilizer in Egypt. He also noted that in March 2008 Agrium agreed to stabilize urea prices in Argentina with a ceiling of $410/mt during the growing season, with global urea prices in 2008 doubling that level. “We do not believe exposing our shareholders to this type of performance is in their best interest,” added Will.

Will went on to tout CF’s phosphate business, saying that Agrium’s is of poor quality by comparison. He noted that Agrium’s Kapukasking mine will be depleted of phosphate rock in five years, and that in 2006 Agrium recorded a $136 million write down of its phosphate operations after reducing the projected life of the mine. He also said Agrium’s Conda, Idaho, phosphate plant may be subject to significant enforcement initiatives by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency and the U.S. Department of Justice due to environmental violations.

CF said it has substantial doubts about the synergy estimates alleged by Agrium as the two do not have that much in common, whereas CF and Terra Industries Inc. have more clear-cut and apparent synergies since the two share the same manufacturing technologies and are next door neighbors at Donaldsonville, La.

Agrium is the only North American fertilizer manufacturer that pursues a business model to compete with its customers, said CF Chairman, CEO, and President Stephen Wilson. As a result, CF suggests there may be some negative synergies to the deal. CF noted in Securities Exchange Commission filings that two major wholesale customers and competitors of Agrium, CHS Inc. and Growmark Inc., both hold seats on its board. Their respective board members, CHS President and CEO John Johnson and Growmark CEO William Davisson, both recused themselves from voting on the Agrium proposal at the board meeting March 6. However, both told the board that they felt the deal was not in the best interest of CF and its customers. CF fears the deal could drive larger customers to other suppliers and reduce the revenue of the post-deal business. In the meantime, some dealers have voiced opposition to an Agrium/CF deal (GM March 23, p. 1).

CF said its shareholders prefer its higher margin manufacturing and distribution business, whereas Agrium would add lower margin retail, which accounted for 55 percent of Agrium revenues in 2008.

Wilson said that since its inception as a public company CF has outperformed Agrium by a wide margin. “Specifically, since Aug. 11, 2005, the date of our initial public offering, CF shares have appreciated 318 percent while the global peer group, which is composed of Terra, Mosaic, Potash, Intrepid, Yara, ICL and Kali und Salz, increased 109 percent, and over the same period Agrium increased only 52 percent.” He added that from the IPO to the recent peak in share prices for the global peer group, which occurred June 17, 2008, CF shares increased 947 percent versus the peer group’s 601 percent and Agrium’s 365 percent.

Wilson said Agrium is simply trying to buy CF at a low valuation during the low point in the fertilizer cycle and the stock market. He quoted Agrium President and CEO Mike Wilson as saying on Feb. 26, “Everybody’s in the dumps today and it’s the right time to be buying these kinds of assets.”

Wilson said Agrium tried to low ball CF back in mid-2005 just before CF did its IPO. CF said its aggregate IPO offering price back then was about 60 percent higher than what was offered by Agrium.

Wilson said CF’s advisors say that Agrium could still pay over $100 per share for CF shares with it still being accretive to Agrium. Agrium’s offer has now moved from $72 to $74.90. He also noted the stock market has reacted negatively to Agrium’s offer. Analysts saw the $100 per share remark by CF as a sign that CF was willing to negotiate, regardless of the swipes made against Agrium in the analyst call and SEC filings. Agrium’s offer is good through May 19. Under the offer, CF shareholders would own 24 percent of Agrium shares.

Agrium also revealed in SEC filings that it has a toehold in CF as it bought 1,241,849 shares (2.57 percent) of the company between Feb. 12-19, 2009, for an average price of $52.32 per share.

According to the SEC filings, Agrium and its subsidiaries purchased approximately $71.4 and $89.7 million in fertilizer products from CF in 2007 and 2008, respectively.

Agrium files proxy materials, responds to CF claims

On March 27, in addition to increasing its offer for CF, Agrium filed with the SEC preliminary proxy materials in connection with CF’s 2009 annual meeting of stockholders, which urge CF stockholders to “withhold” all votes in connection with the election of the three nominees to the CF board of directors.

“Agrium’s increased offer reflects our firm commitment to completing this transaction,” said Mike Wilson, Agrium’s president and CEO. “For CF stockholders – who would receive a substantial premium plus significant participation in the upside of the combination – our offer is a far better alternative than paying a substantial premium for Terra Industries. Moreover, we would consider increasing our offer further to reflect any additional value that the CF board and management can demonstrate arising from the combination of our two companies.”

“We do not understand why CF would summarily reject our offer without any attempt to negotiate a mutually beneficial transaction,” added Agrium’s Wilson. “We are disappointed that CF would attack our offer with selective information and flawed financial analysis – and disenfranchise CF stockholders by restructuring the Terra offer to take the vote away from CF stockholders. We urge CF stockholders to send a message to the CF board to engage with us by withholding their votes for the CF nominees at the April 21 annual meeting and tendering their shares into the Agrium offer. Given CF’s end run around CF stockholders, withholding votes on directors and tendering shares is the way for them to have a voice in the future of their company.”

Agrium noted its offer is not subject to a financing condition. Agrium says it has sufficient cash resources and committed financing underwritten by Royal Bank of Canada and The Bank of Nova Scotia to fund the cash portion of the offer.

Agrium also outlined its response to CF’s rejection:

  • Agrium’s offer represents a substantial premium and is very attractive to CF stockholders from an exchange ratio standpoint as it is well above historical averages.
  • Agrium’s proposal has been well received by the markets. CF stockholders have clearly expressed to Agrium their preference to receive a premium rather than pay a premium for Terra. The spread between the value of the Agrium offer and CF’s share price has averaged 1.8 percent since the announcement, implying that investors are supportive of an Agrium/CF combination and believe a deal will be consummated.
  • Agrium’s offer is not being funded by CF’s cash. CF’s contention that Agrium is using CF’s cash to fund the cash component of Agrium’s offer is wrong. Agrium is funding the cash portion of the offer through available liquidity and fully committed financing. More importantly, the cash on CF’s balance sheet is fully valued in Agrium’s offer, as is the case in virtually every merger or acquisition.
  • Agrium’s retail business provides stability, value and high margins. While CF claims it does not want exposure to Agrium’s “lower margin” retail business, the fact is that Agrium has had higher average and less-volatile margins than CF – and has traded at a higher EV/EBITDA multiple ?Çô since CF’s IPO in 2005.
  • Agrium is a global leader in nitrogen manufacturing with broad diversification. Our operational and geographic diversification helps maintain our strong vendor relationships and mitigates unforeseen events such as unfavorable weather or political instability in the markets we serve. A combined Agrium/CF would further strengthen our market positioning.
  • Agrium has a strong record of growth, successful integration of acquisitions and attainment of synergies. In the past five years, Agrium has completed nine acquisitions and invested approximately $3.4-billion, achieving synergies greater than announced and earlier than expected. In contrast, CF has announced a single acquisition of approximately $25-million and has no track record of integrating acquisitions or extracting synergies since its IPO.

Terra rejects latest CF offer

Terra Industries Inc. said March 24 that its board of directors has rejected CF Industries Holdings Inc.’s latest offer of $30.50 per share, made March 23. Earlier bids were $27.50 (GM March 16, p. 1) and $20.00 per share (GM Jan. 19, p. 1).

Terra said the unanimous decision concluded that the most recent proposal continues to run counter to Terra’s strategic objectives, substantially undervaluing Terra both absolutely and relative to CF, and would deliver less value to shareholders than would owning Terra on a standalone basis.

Terra has also called the CF offer opportunistic, much in the same way CF categorizes those from Agrium Inc.

Unlike Agrium, Terra does not put that much value on CF’s phosphate assets, saying one of Terra’s advantages is that it is a pure play nitrogen company. It argues that CF does not have the scale to be a leading participant in phosphate. “CF’s bid does not reflect Terra’s much greater relative contribution of nitrogen results to the combined entity, and is opportunistically timed to take advantage of Terra’s stock price being temporarily depressed relative to CF’s stock price as compared to historic average trading prices during early 2006 through early 2008.”

Terra also says CF’s projected synergies claims are aggressive, and that the combination is subject to substantial execution risk. Terra says that it has led four significant acquisition integration efforts and is fully aware of the difficulty in achieving synergies, while CF’s management does not have experience effecting business combinations like the one proposed.

CF argued last week that CF-Terra synergies are clear cut since the two share similar technologies and locations, such as Donaldsonville, and that CF railcars pass Terra locations and Terra railcars pass CF’s. It argued that a combined company would find efficiencies.

CF argues that the CF-Terra deal has been well received by the stock market, and that on the first day after the Jan. 16 announcement of the offer, Terra stock went up 25.8 percent and CF’s 2.7 percent. It believes Terra stock would be trading significantly below its current level absent CF’s offer and the expectation of a CF-Terra combination.

Ontario co-op sells assets to Growmark

Members of Waterloo-Oxford Cooperative Inc. in Woodstock, Ont., voted March 23 to sell substantially all of the co-op’s assets to Growmark Inc. The vote was held at the co-op’s annual general meeting in Woodstock, and was well attended by more than 70 members who voted 95 percent in favor of the deal.

The transaction, which was approved by the board of directors prior to the meeting, is expected to be completed May 1, 2009. Waterloo-Oxford offers a full line of crop production products, including pesticides, seed, and both liquid and dry fertilizers, with total annual sales of approximately $250 million. The co-op’s sales area in Ontario stretches from Lake Erie to Georgian Bay, and from London to the Highway 400 route linking Toronto to the central and northern sections of the province.

“Growmark’s investment in acquiring the assets of Waterloo-Oxford Co-op is a blessing in terms of what we needed in strong financial support,” said Murray Schnarr, president of Waterloo-Oxford Co-op. “It gives us new stability and allows us to continue to do business for the customers in our trade territories.”

Waterloo-Oxford has operated under the FS Partners name since November 2006, and will continue to operate under that banner after the acquisition. FS Partners is a retail division of Growmark that manages the day-to-day businesses of 20 FS branches throughout central, western, and northern Ontario.

“For our customers, it means they will be able to continue to do business with their local FS Partners branch as usual and see very little change in their day-to-day business dealings,” said Jaye Atkins, FS Partners general manager. “This acquisition will allow us to stay competitive in the marketplace, tap into more resources, and increase efficiencies.”

After the completion of the transaction, Waterloo-Oxford Cooperative will be dissolved. At that time, it is anticipated that current members of Waterloo-Oxford who meet membership criteria will be eligible for membership in Growmark.

Atkins told Green Markets that Waterloo-Oxford has approximately 230 full-time employees and 100 part-time and seasonal staff. He added that the transaction will have “very little impact on employees, with minimal displacement.”

Growmark is a regional cooperative that provides agriculture-related products and services to farmers and rural residents in Ontario and the U.S. through subsidiaries and local FS member cooperatives. FS branded and related products and services include crop inputs, crop protection, seed, grain marketing, energy products, feed, and animal health, as well as a variety of consumer-related products. Growmark reported $6.7 billion in sales for 2008.

Tornadoes, blizzards, and flooding hit upper Midwest

Those who believe March comes in like a lion and goes out like a lamb may have to reconsider after last week’s brutal weather in the upper Midwest, which included 10 tornadoes in Iowa and Nebraska, severe blizzard conditions in western Nebraska and South Dakota, and worsening flood conditions in parts of the Dakotas and Manitoba. Forecasters said another storm was expected Friday into Saturday and could bring 6 inches of snow or more to parts of Nebraska and western Iowa.

Five lower-level tornadoes were confirmed in western Iowa on Monday night, with localized damage reported to houses and farm structures but no injuries. Residents in the central two-thirds of the state were dealing with minor flooding from main stem rivers after recent heavy rains. The National Weather Service’s North Platte, Neb., office reported Monday afternoon that two tornadoes had touched down in north-central Nebraska as part of the same storm system. By Wednesday, that estimate was raised to at least five tornadoes across the state on Monday, in addition to the five that hit western Iowa. The tornadoes were among 17 funnels reported from Oklahoma to South Dakota early in the week.

The western part of Nebraska spent much of Tuesday enduring blizzard conditions from falling snow and high winds. Wind gusts of 62 mph were reported in Valentine, Neb., with one gust clocked at 90 mph in Perkins County, S.D. Several state and national highways in the Nebraska Panhandle were temporarily closed during the storm, including a section of Interstate 80 into Wyoming. The heaviest snowfall occurred in western South Dakota’s Black Hills area, with up to 30 inches of new accumulation.

In North Dakota, sandbagging efforts were underway to combat widespread flooding caused by ice jams on the Missouri River. Thousands of residents in Bismarck and in rural areas south of the city were evacuated due to rising water, prompting authorities to use explosives on Wednesday to blast a channel through extensive ice dams near Fox Island. Local reports said this is the first time Bismarck has had a spring flood since 1952, when the Garrison Dam was being built 60 miles upstream.

And in Fargo, N.D., and Moorhead, Minn., residents were desperately stacking sandbags along the swollen Red River last week, which was expected to crest at a record 43 feet by Saturday, above the previous record of 40.1 feet set in 1897 and more than three feet higher than the levels reached during the devastating 1997 flood. The National Weather Service late on Thursday said the crest could run for three to seven days, further stressing sandbag barriers. President Obama issued a disaster declaration for 34 North Dakota counties on Tuesday.

Seeding of spring wheat in North Dakota may face “major delays” as a result of flooding and additional snowfall, Minneapolis-based DTN Meteorlogix LLC said in a midweek report. Fargo-based U.S. Agriculture Department official Dale Ihry recently predicted that at least 1 million acres might not be planted this spring in North Dakota.

In Manitoba, forecasters have said that when the crest of the Red River hits the border with the U.S. in the coming weeks, a lot of farmland and roads south of Winnipeg will be flooded. The recent storms are “really setting off alarm bells,” Environment Canada announced last week.

The rising Red River was already forcing some grain shipments away from rail lines because of flooded tracks. Local reports said washouts on BNSF’s north-south line in North Dakota were causing delays ranging from one to four days for shipments of agricultural products from Canada. Canadian Pacific Railway said it does not expect problems with its east-west line, which runs west of the likely flood zone. CP does have concerns, however, for its track south of Winnipeg, which runs directly through the Red River Valley.

EPA stalls PCS phos. mine expansion; PotashCorp still hopeful for permit by 2Q

The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency’s Region Four director, based in Atlanta, has sent a letter to the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers in Wilmington, N.C., saying that it should put a hold on any expansion permit for the PCS Phosphates phosphate rock mine in Aurora, N.C. This came after the Corps notified the EPA office of its plans to proceed on the permit.

The Atlanta office said it is requesting a review of the permit by EPA’s Office of Water and the Assistant Secretary of the Army for Civil Works. During this review, the permit should be held in abeyance pending completion of the review process, according to the letter from Acting Regional Administrator A. Stanley Meiburg.

“EPA remains concerned that the proposed project will result in unacceptable adverse impacts to aquatic resources of national importance, including direct and indirect impacts to waters of the U.S. which support the Albemarle Pamlico National Estuary Program area,” said Meiburg. He said EPA believes there are less environmentally damaging practicable alternatives for mining the project site that would avoid and minimize impacts to important wetland and stream resources. He said there are also concerns regarding the adequacy of the proposed compensatory mitigation to offset any authorized impacts.

Meiburg said he recognized the need for a timely decision; however, he said critical issues remain unresolved, and his office does not support issuance of a permit for the project as currently proposed.

PotashCorp, the parent of PCS Phosphates, said last week that it remains hopeful that the permit will be issued by the end of the second quarter. Back in January, the company had been hoping for a final Corps decision by the end of April (GM Jan. 29, 2009).

PCS has been seeking the permit since 2000, and the permit from the Corps was seen as the last major hurdle. State and local officials had petitioned the regional EPA office to support the expansion. Proponents argue that PCS has a good reclamation record and is the largest employer in Beaufort County, with some 1,100 employees.

The N.C. Division of Water Quality issued a permit in January to allow the company to mine about 11,000 acres adjacent to its current mine. Several environmental groups had just announced earlier this month that they would appeal that decision to an state administrative court. That appeal was made by the Southern Environmental Law Center, the Environmental Defense Fund, the North Carolina Coastal Federation, the Pamlico-Tar River Foundation, and the North Carolina Sierra Club. The groups say the expansion impacts 4.8 miles of streams and more than 3,900 acres of wetlands, and represents the largest destruction of wetlands ever permitted in the state.

An editorial in the local newspaper, The News & Observer, suggested that no one should be rushed into a decision, even if many jobs are at risk. “But those jobs aren’t in imminent jeopardy,” it said. “And the feds, charged by law with safeguarding precious ecological resources, surely don’t need to have the squeeze put on them by politicians dancing to tunes being called in Saskatoon, Sask.”

PCS said in 2008 that the area currently being mined has about four more years of use (GM Archives).

TFI sends letters to First Lady, others, addressing organic vs. conventional fert.

Remember seeing all those photos of First Lady Michelle Obama helping to break ground for a new garden on the South Lawn of the White House? Pundits soon followed up that President Obama would be the one who would supply the fertilizer.

The Fertilizer Institute’s Nutrients for Life Foundation honed in on the fact that it is supposed to be an organic garden, and that organic was portrayed as synonymous with healthy and nutritious. Nutrients for Life President Ford West sent a letter to Mrs. Obama pointing out “that other forms of fertilizers, such as nitrogen captured from the air, and phosphate and potassium mined from the ground, are just as efficient, if not more so, in delivering the much needed nutrients to the plants since their nutrient content is more predictable. Fertilizers are all good – they provide nourishment, just as vitamins do for people… When it comes to fertilizers, all options are healthy and people need to know that they can be comfortable choosing whichever option works for their situation, budget and space.”

In addition, TFI noted that a similar spin on organics was made in a recent interview with “slow food” proponent Alice Waters on the CBS show 60 Minutes. In a letter to Waters, Nutrients for Life Executive Director Harriet Wegmeyer said, “Your effort to educate people about growing healthy food is commendable, but flawed. While growing organic is one option, I would like to point out that other forms of fertilizers, such as nitrogen captured from the air, and phosphate and potassium mined from the ground, are just as efficient, if not more so, in delivering the much needed nutrients to the plants since their nutrient content is more predictable.” In addition, letters were sent to 60 Minutes reporter Lesley Stahl and 60 Minutes producer Ruth Streeter. Wegmeyer’s letter added that she looked forward to seeing a 60 Minutes segment that highlights all options for growing healthy and nutritious food.

SynGest names location for new biomass ammonia plant

Syngest Inc., San Francisco, says its first plant to manufacture anhydrous ammonia fuel and fertilizer from corn biomass will be located 45 miles west of Des Moines. The company confirmed that it has signed an agreement to purchase 75 acres of land in Menlo (population 375) in Guthrie County. The Menlo site offers easy access to road and rail transportation.

The plant will use 150,000 tons of locally-supplied corn cobs per year to manufacture 50,000 tons of bio-ammonia annually, enough to fertilize 500,000 acres of nearby Iowa farmland under corn. Syngest told Green Markets earlier (GM Feb. 10, p. 10) that a major Midwestern agribusiness has agreed to supply the stover and distribute the ammonia; however, the identity of the company will come later.

Syngest CEO Jack Oswald told Green Markets last week that the plant will cost $80 million and require about 500 workers during construction. Groundbreaking is expected in six-to-nine months. Full-scale ammonia production is expected in two to two and one-half years.

Oswald said without ammonia, major crop production would be reduced by 50 percent. “This is worrisome because more than half the ammonia that we use is imported, notably from Trinidad, with its dwindling gas resources, and from Russia, with its reputation for interrupting critical supplies for political gains,” he said. “The few large ammonia plants in the U.S. are aging fast, and no significant domestic expansion is foreseen.”

It should be noted that Trinidad ammonia and gas producers have taken issue with assertions about declining reserves. In 2007, after a gas audit of Trinidad’s gas reserves, country officials as well as PotashCorp reiterated that there is plenty of gas to serve producers going forward, and that extensive gas reserves remaining untapped (GM Aug. 20, 2007).

“Even a 20 percent shortfall in the foreign ammonia supply chain, whether it’s accidental or deliberate, will cause serious problems in our food industry and related financial markets,” said Oswald. “Our SynGest biomass-to-ammonia mini-plant business model will help to mitigate this risk. We will empower the farmer and make him impervious to external forces. The SynGest option will let him convert his agricultural waste material into fuel to power the farm and nitrogen fertilizer to replenish the soil.”

Syngest says the front-end engineering and design program for the SynGest Menlo project is headed by Dr. Ravi Randhava, chief technology officer of SynGest. Syngest says he is an internationally-recognized pioneer in the mini-plant industry, and is the “go-to” specialist for solving challenging process problems. He is also president of Unitel Technologies and was a co-founder of the Xytel Group, including a joint venture with Bechtel known as Xytel-Bechtel Inc. (XBI).

“It’s gratifying that the ammonia mini-plant concept that we created at XBI during the 80’s and early 90’s is finally being put to good use,” said Dr. Randhava.