AMMONIA

U.S. Gulf/Tampa: The U.S. import market went up last week. Sources pointed to one trade at $955/mt DEL. The deal was reportedly by Mitsui with Arab Gulf tons to Koch at Taft. There were also rumors of another deal as high as $975/mt DEL.

The price increase was one of the few out there in the fertilizer market last week, as the bears were very active in other markets. However, spurred on by $900/mt FOB Yuzhnyy, ammonia players said imports to the U.S. had to follow.

Eastern Cornbelt: Anhydrous ammonia remained at $1,040-$1,080/st FOB regional terminals for spot tons, with the low in Illinois. Forward contract ammonia continued to be referenced as high as $1,240-$1,250/st FOB regional terminals for October through November.

Western Cornbelt: Ammonia pricing remained in a broad range at $950-$1,050/st FOB for spot tons, with forward contract postings as high as $1,230-$1,240/st FOB for October through November.

California: Calamco raised its anhydrous ammonia price at midnight Aug. 27 to $890/st truck-DEL and $935/st rail-DEL in California. The company’s aqua ammonia price also increased on that date, to $232/st FOB in California from the previous $185/st FOB.

Pacific Northwest: Anhydrous ammonia pricing remained in a broad range at $950-$1,200/st DEL range in the region. One supplier was referencing forward contract ammonia at $1,255/st FOB Ritzville, Wash., for October through November, with aqua ammonia forward tons posted at $311/st FOB Ritzville for October through December.

Western Canada: Anhydrous ammonia pricing remained at $1,584-$1,629/mt DEL in the region.

Black Sea: The industry took a deep breath last week to fully appreciate the impact of the market hitting $900/mt FOB. Buyers and traders at the TFI gathering in Seattle, Wash., commented that even though $900/mt FOB was predicted, once it was achieved it was mind numbing.

By the time conference participants were flying home from Seattle, sources said no new business was concluded. One source said people will want to look closely at the market to see if the peak was indeed hit.

One observer commented that even though he and others in the industry predicted $900/mt FOB was feasible, he was unsure it would be hit. Now that it has, he wonders if there is a ceiling to the price.

The argument for continued strength in the price comes from a quick look around the globe. Demand from the U.S. and Europe remains strong. Asia is short of material, largely because of a combination of strong demand and the shutdown of the Yara Burrup facility in Australia. Sources report the storage tanks in the Arab Gulf remain – for all practical purposes – empty.

Mitsui reportedly did a complicated swap deal involving product from Yuzhnyy and the Middle East that ended up with a sale from the Arab Gulf to the U.S. at $955/mt CFR. The round-about deal included Yuzhnyy tons for Jordan in exchange for AG tons for the States. Sources note other players and countries may have been involved in the deal as well.

The bottom line for the Yuzhnyy producers, however, is that demand remains strong. Whether that will translate into prices beyond $900/mt FOB remains to be seen.

Middle East: In a round-about swap deal, Mitsui ended up selling a cargo from the area to the U.S. Gulf at $955/mt CFR. On the heels of that deal another sale was reported to NOLA at $975/mt CFR.

For ammonia guys at the TFI meeting, the two deals indicated continued strength in the ammonia markets ?Çô and particularly in the Middle East.

Sources say, however, that the problem with these two recent deals to the States is the way they were done. Both are reportedly swap deals that involved more shuffling than a three-card Monte operator on a New York sidewalk.

Working from just the prices sold into the States, the Middle East equivalent price is $850-$875/mt FOB. But few in the industry are willing to say that is the new level.

Sources at the TFI – and those who did not attend – say some more time is needed to reflect on the recent sales to the States and what it means for pricing.

Asia: Demand remains strong. More and more end-users, especially industrial buyers, are pushing back against the ever-increasing price of ammonia. The global economic slowdown and higher input prices are causing more industrial buyers to put pressure on their import agents to get better deals on ammonia. So far, the desire for lower prices is not being matched with a corresponding dip in costs.

Bangladesh: Production at the Jamuna Fertilizer Factory (JFF) remained suspended from 9:00 p.m. Sunday, Sept. 7, when a mechanical fault was detected at the boiler tube of its ammonia plant. A company source told the media that they are trying to repair the fault as early as possible. “We hope production would resume at the factory after six days,” he said.

UREA

U.S. Gulf: Price ideas spanned a broad range last week, with some players saying deals were done as low as $730-$740/st FOB, while many industry stalwarts were holding firm to $750-$755/st FOB. The high end players said lower numbers of $725-$730/st FOB were merely buyer offers – however, there were at least a few players who claimed to have bellied up to the bar at those numbers.

Eastern Cornbelt: Granular urea was steady at $810-$840/st FOB terminals to the dealer for prompt tons.

Western Cornbelt: Granular urea remained at $800-$830/st FOB in the region.

California: Granular urea pricing was steady at $860-$900/st FOB and $885-$925/st DEL in the state.

Pacific Northwest: Granular urea pricing was quoted at $860-$870/st DEL in Washington, Idaho, and Oregon, and $840-$850/st DEL in Montana. Both ranges were down slightly from last report.

Western Canada: Granular urea was quoted at $985-$1,010/mt DEL.

India: It was a week of commitments. MMTC settled with Transammonia, Helm, and Toepfer for a total of 300,000 mt at a single price of $825/mt CFR. The new price represents a reduction of about $30/mt. Toepfer was awarded 25,000 mt, Helm is to ship 95,000 mt, and Transammonia is sending the rest. As these deals were being finalized, a rumor surfaced that IPL settled with Kisan at the same price. By the week’s end, sources in Asia had upgraded the rumor to reality.

Kisan had offered 100,000 mt for the first half of September and another 140,000 mt for the second half in the $857/mt FOB range. An additional 100,000 mt was offered at seller’s option.

There is no word as to how many tons are involved in the KIT-IPL deal. Sources are confident that at least 100,000 mt will be booked. Sources say if the KIT-IPL deal is firm, a tender from IPL will be forthcoming.

The MMTC tender results are as much revealing about India’s urea needs as they are about the suppliers’ attitudes.

Traders with positions that needed loadings and a home from Yuzhnyy were willing to lower their prices to secure a final resting place for their urea.

Producers in the Middle East refused to lower their prices. Sources say Indian agents sent a pro-forma letter to the Middle East companies that offered tons in the tender asking for a reduction in price.

The Middle East suppliers rejected the idea outright.

Indian buyers are under pressure from the government to deliver on two key points. Price increases have to be kept at a minimum. Price rollbacks are even better. The government wants lower prices to ease the pressure on the treasury, which has to make up the difference in the imported price and the guaranteed price to farmers. In the past year the subsidies paid by the Indian government to ensure low prices to farmers have dramatically risen and cut into the national budget.

The other requirement facing the buying agencies is to make sure that not only is there enough urea on hand for the upcoming application season, but also to ensure there is no perception of shortages anywhere in the country. This was especially pertinent as a national election approaches. The ruling coalition does not want to provide opposition parties with any ammunition to attack the government over urea deliveries. Some local political leaders have already rallied farmers in distant areas of the country to complain to the government that not enough urea is making its way to their location. The government continues to assure the farmers that not only are sufficient quantities of urea on hand to start the season, but that more tons are on the way.

Black Sea: Even though the September shipping line-up indicates the producers are sold out for the rest of the month, the price continues to soften. The reduction in the delivered price to India by three traders said to each have significant long positions from the area has reinforced the consensus that the Black Sea price is dropping.

One Asian trader noted that freight for a panamax from Yuzhnyy to Kandla is about $60/mt FOB. Once other costs are deducted, the Yuzhnyy price is firmly set at $760/mt FOB. In previous weeks sources had claimed $760/mt FOB was too low. By the middle of last week, $760/mt FOB was considered too high.

Asian sources peg the market at $750-$770/mt FOB, with an understanding that once India’s buying season ends, the Yuzhnyy market could face a major downfall.

Middle East: Sources say the area producers did not lower their prices in the MMTC tender because they didn’t have to. Reportedly, the orders on the books are keeping the producers very happy. In addition, sources say the producers are sticking with their strategy of keeping just enough material dockside for the next vessel scheduled for loading.

The massive warehouses the producers have are reportedly being kept as near empty as possible. Sources say the producers are doing this because they do not want to have a large overhang of urea that could be used as leverage to lower prices.

Helping keep the warehouses empty are deals made among governments for urea assistance. One such program is the aid package offered by Saudi Arabia to Pakistan. Two separate deals of 300,000 mt each were inked between the two governments. More than 150,000 mt are already being loaded and shipped.

Without the Indian business, the Middle East shipments revert to contracted tons. The price range also drops on the high end, because no one is yet willing to pay beyond $850/mt FOB for their material.

Taking their cue from the offers that put granular and prills at parity, sources say the prices from the area should continue to reflect that parity.

Bangladesh: An award of 37,500 mt in the August tender was given to Liven last week. The tender that closed two weeks ago has yet to be awarded.

Sources say the most likely winners will be Bulk Trade for the granular portion at $896.40/mt CFR bagged and Swiss Singapore for 12,500 mt of prills at $849/mt CFR.

Asia: Sources say the normal mid-sized buyers – Thailand, Sri Lanka, and the Philippines – are comfortable. Many of the tons of urea sitting in Asian warehouses come from China via Vietnam. These tons are offered for re-export from Vietnam still in Chinese bags and free of the high export duties imposed by both countries.

NITROGEN SOLUTIONS

U.S. Gulf: Barge numbers fell last week at the Seattle meeting, with most folks now putting them within the $490-$500/st FOB ($15.31-$15.62/unit) range.

Eastern Cornbelt: The UAN market was unchanged at $16.00-$16.79/unit FOB regional terminals for cash tons. Reference prices for forward contract UAN-32 tons for October through February remained at significantly higher levels, ranging from $596.80-$606.40/st ($18.65-$18.95/unit) FOB regional terminals.

Western Cornbelt: UAN-32 was unchanged at $510-$525/st ($15.94-$16.41/unit) FOB regional terminals to the dealer, with reference prices as high as $17.20/unit FOB.

California: UAN-32 remained at $15.94-$16.56/unit DEL and $15.63-$16.03/st FOB in California.

Pacific Northwest: The UAN-32 market was steady at $520-$530/st ($16.25-$16.56/unit) DEL in the region, depending on location.

Western Canada: UAN-28 was unchanged from last report at $542-$557/mt ($19.36-$19.89/unit) DEL in the region.

AMMONIUM NITRATE

U.S. Gulf: Debate continued over prices in this market. Most sources called the most recent business at $520-$530/st FOB. However, forward material from fresh cargoes was being offered at $555-$570/st FOB.

Western Cornbelt: Ammonium nitrate was quoted at $550-$600/st FOB in the region.

Pacific Northwest: Ammonium nitrate pricing was tagged at a firm $605-$629/st DEL in the region, with CAN-17 at $360-$365/st FOB.

AMMONIUM SULFATE

Eastern Cornbelt: Granular ammonium sulfate was up slightly to $495-$505/st FOB, with the upper end reflecting new list prices from Honeywell effective Sept. 8.

Western Cornbelt: Granular ammonium sulfate remained firm at $475-$495/st FOB.

California: Ammonium sulfate pricing was up from last report at $425-$445/st FOB in the state.

Pacific Northwest: Granular ammonium sulfate remained at $462-$470/st DEL in the region, and in tight supply.

Western Canada: Granular ammonium sulfate was steady at $555-$560/mt DEL in the region.

PHOSPHATES

Central Florida: The good news at the TFI Conference at Seattle last week was that no one was killed by bears, but there were plenty of them in the market’s woods. It appeared no new prompt sales occurred at the meeting, and there wasn’t a bull in sight.

Railcars were still moving out of Central Florida, but those were based on earlier orders. Producers and traders said the problem was that farmers in most areas have not harvested their crops, so dealers’ phosphate bins remained full or nearly so, and there was no place to put additional product. That situation was not likely to change until next month.

Hurricane Gustav posed no problems for Central Florida and not much for the Gulf Coast two weeks ago, but Ike could be different. Late last week Ike began moving more northerly, and refineries in Houston and Texas City appeared to be in the danger zone. Agrifos was in the process on Thursday of shutting down its processing plant at Pasadena, which should have been complete by that Friday morning. How long it will remain down depends on the impact of the storm. Mandatory evacuations were underway, and refineries were shutting down. Ships were seeking safe harbor, and Agrifos’s processing plant at Pasadena may be affected. How bad will be determined by the storm surge in the low-lying areas near Houston, which is barely above sea level.

There were no other hurricanes in the Atlantic, but an area of disturbed weather was moving west and had the potential to develop into a tropical storm, which could then threaten Florida.

The Central Florida DAP price range last week was unchanged at $1,070-$1,080/st FOB. PCS Sales’s Central Florida reference price was unchanged at $1,070/st FOB for DAP and had a $25/st FOB premium for MAP. Mosaic’s asking price was $1,090/st FOB for DAP and $1,115/st FOB for MAP, but the company was making sales at $10/st FOB less for both products. CF’s price was steady at $1,040/st FOB for DAP, and its MAP was priced at $1,100/st FOB. In Texas, Agrifos dropped its DAP prices $50/st FOB, from $1,100/st FOB to $1,050/st FOB for trucks and from $1,095/st FOB to $1,045/st FOB for rail shipments.

U.S. Gulf: Mosaic’s Faustina phosphate processing plant was still out of service last week, but the new threat – Hurricane Ike – will likely make landfall about 50 miles south of Houston and will probably not affect Mississippi Phosphates or Donaldsonville, but Agrifos was being threatened by the Category 3 hurricane.

However, Donaldsonville couldn’t be down at a better time, since the NOLA DAP barge market has had a hard time finding buyers, even with significantly lower offers. In one case, an offer to sell a DAP barge at $880/st FOB was rejected, although the price was $120/st FOB below the previous week’s low for the price range.

A source said wheat farmers in Oklahoma were putting off planting until late in September, and crops in the Corn Belt were two-to-three weeks late. Sources said they do not expect an uptick in business until somewhere between the end of September and mid October. Dealers will have to empty some of their phosphate bins before product can begin to move, because virtually all were still full last week. Heavy buying on earlier fill programs was said to be responsible for the lack of current sales.

In addition, most sources said they anticipated farmers would use less phosphate than normal for the next season, but no one had any idea of how much less. The price of corn will be a factor. Corn prices had dropped last week to around $5.25/bushel, primarily as a result of hedge funds departing the market in search of greener pastures. Once they are out of the picture, the price was anticipated to increase to a more favorable level. A price of $6.00/bushel or better would help fertilizer sales.

The other big concern was a lack of available capital to finance farmers, dealers, and traders, which could affect all of them next season. Banks and other financial sources have pulled back on what they are willing to loan, say sources.

Only one new NOLA DAP barge sale could be found last week and that was made at $950/st FOB, which represented a loss for the seller. However, after making the early week sale, the trader said he wished he had sold another one at that price, because offers since were considerably lower.

The NOLA DAP barge price range declined from $1,000-$1,030/st FOB the previous week to $950-$1,000/st FOB last week. MAP barges were $25-$60/st FOB more than DAP. Mosaic’s asking price for NOLA DAP barges was $1,100/st FOB and $1,125/st FOB for MAP, and its prices for October and November were scheduled to increase $10/st FOB. CF was seeking $1,050/st FOB for DAP and to $1,110/st FOB for MAP for prompt deliveries.

Eastern Cornbelt: Sources continued to report some pressure on phosphate pricing, with the warehouse market quoted at $1,060-$1,090/st FOB for DAP and $1,100-$1,125/st FOB for MAP. 10-34-0 was quoted at $1,175-$1,200/st FOB where available.

Western Cornbelt: Most sources pegged the DAP market at $1,055-$1,080/st FOB regional warehouses to the dealer, with MAP quoted at $1,100-$1,125/st FOB for prompt sales. 10-34-0 was firm at $1,175-$1,200/st FOB in the region for very limited spot tons.

California: DAP and MAP were pegged at $1,180-$1,200/st FOB or DEL in California, with reports of another potential increase taking place on Sept. 15. 16-20-0 remained firm at $675-$690/st FOB. 10-34-0 was up some $55/st from last report, with the dealer market quoted at $995-$1,015/st FOB in California.

Super phosphoric acid (SPA) and merchant grade acid (MGA) were quoted at $25.00/unit DEL in California, with Simplot referenced at $25.20/unit FOB Lathrop for MGA. Simplot is slated to firm on Oct. 1 to $25.50/unit DEL, and on Nov. 1 to $26.00/unit DEL. Agrium’s reference prices are also firming in the coming months, with postings for SPA and MGA moving to $2,550/st rail-DEL in October and $2,600/st rail-DEL in November.

Pacific Northwest: DAP and MAP were quoted at $1,170-$1,200/st DEL in the region. One supplier reportedly has increases planned for Sept. 15 that would bring regional postings to $1,195-$1,210/st DEL, depending on location.

16-20-0 remained at $660-$670/st FOB and $665-$685/st DEL in the region, depending on location. 10-34-0 pricing continued to climb. Sources tagged the market at $1,030-$1,072/st FOB in the region last week.

SPA and MGA were reported at a firm $25.00/unit DEL in the region. Simplot’s postings will firm on Oct. 1 to $25.50/unit DEL, and on Nov. 1 to $26.00/unit DEL. Effective Oct. 1, Agrium’s phosphoric acid postings will firm to $2,550/st rail-DEL in Idaho, Montana, Nevada, Oregon, Utah, Washington, and Wyoming for both SPA and MGA. Postings will firm to $2,600/st rail-DEL in November.

Western Canada: MAP remained at $1,335-$1,370/mt DEL in Western Canada.

U.S. Export: India was still buying last week, and at lower prices. Mexico’s Fertinal provided a handymax phosphate sale to India at a delivered price of $1,172/mt. Freight to India would be somewhere between $80/mt and $100/mt, which would put the FOB price at $1,072-$1,092/mt – considerably below the lowest price received by any of the U. S. producers. PhosChem has been sitting on the sidelines in hopes the price will begin to rise. India has also recently purchased tons from Russia and North Africa.

With no new sales by U.S. producers, the export DAP price range remained unchanged at $1,160-$1,215/mt FOB

POTASH

Eastern Cornbelt: The potash market remained firmly in the $900-$930/st FOB range last week, depending on location, grade, and time of delivery.

Western Cornbelt: Potash remained at $895-$930/st FOB regional warehouses, with most quoting the upper half of that range for brokered sales to the dealer.

California: Muriate of potash continued to be reported firmly in the $875-$900/st FOB and $875-$950/st DEL ranges in the region.

Sulfate of potash was quoted in a broad range at $1,010-$1,095/st FOB, depending on grade and supplier, with the upper level reflecting new postings that took effect Sept. 8. Sources continued to report very tight supplies and strict allocations.

No current prices were reported for potassium nitrate.

Pacific Northwest: Potash was steady at $875-$920/st DEL, with warehoused tons from resellers reported at the upper end of that range on an FOB basis.

Western Canada: No current prices were reported for potash in the region.

Postings: North American Salt Co. and Sifto Canada Corp., subsidiaries of Compass Minerals, have announced a $175 per-ton price increase on potassium-based consumer and industrial water conditioning products. The new prices will take effect with all North American shipments beginning October 15, 2008, or as contracts allow. “This price increase is being introduced in response to continuing strong demand and escalating market prices for potassium chloride, the primary component of our potassium-based water conditioning products,” explained Jerry Bucan, Compass Minerals vice president and general manager, consumer and industrial.

SULFUR

Tampa: No progress was made last week on fourth-quarter sulfur prices, but several sources said PCS was seeking a rollback of $240/lt. However, some sources said the phosphate industry was not in a hurry to settle, because world prices were still on the decline. In the Middle East, at least one deal was done for around $500/mt FOB, which would be about $300/mt below the recent high.

One of the big drags on the sulfur price has been China, which appeared to be in no hurry to settle with its suppliers. The Summer Olympics were over, but China was waiting until completion of the Paralympics before resuming normal operation of its factories. That country was also believed to have inventories that could help it to hold off even longer.

Interestingly, while world prices have taken a nose dive in recent weeks, the basic supply and demand situation has remained essentially the same. A source said the price drop was the result of the market’s psychology rather than an oversupply situation.

Hurricane Ike will impact the sulfur market. All of the sulfur vessels were being tied down in coastal ports to ride out the storm, which was expected to make landfall about 50 miles north of Houston on late Friday/early Saturday, Sept. 12-13. Sources were concerned about the damage to refineries from the storm surge and probable electrical outages. They were shutting down late last week as a precaution. If there are no major problems, the refineries should be going back into service about 10 days after the storm strikes, but it could be much worse for some. Prolonged outages would not only push the price of gasoline up while the price of oil goes down, but would affect sulfur supplies.

West Coast: Negotiations for third quarter contracts on the West Coast were expected to have been completed by last week, but were not. Prill operations there must compete with the world market, where prices were dropping like a big rock in quicksand.

Vancouver: No resolution on new contracts was completed last week with China and Brazil, and both countries were said to be holding out for lower prices.

MARKET NOTES

Russia: Word spread as the TFI sessions were ending in Seattle that Moscow is planning to impose a 30 percent export duty on all Russian fertilizers.

Conference participants could provide no details about the move other than to say rumblings have occasionally been heard from the agriculture sector that too many tons of fertilizers are being exported, to the detriment of domestic demands.

The move to impose the duty is seen in the same light as the Chinese and Vietnamese actions: to reduce exports and increase domestic supplies.

Some sources in the ammonia industry were skeptical that the duty would include ammonia, because Russian farmers do not use ammonia for direct application as much as the Americans or Europeans.

India: Madras Fertilizers Ltd. plans to restart the manufacture of complex fertilizers, which could have a significant impact on the company’s business volume once the plan is implemented. MFL has a capacity to manufacture over 800,000 mt/y of complex fertilizers, but it had drastically cut back on production a few years ago because of raw material (phosphoric acid) and financial constraints. In the last two years, it utilized just about 5 percent of its NPK production capacity. Addressing the company’s annual general meeting, Mr. S. Muralidharan, MFL’s chairman and managing director, said that the Department of Fertilizers is urging the company to restart the manufacture of complex fertilizers. This would mean that the company’s business volume will quadruple over that of 2007-08, when its turnover was Rs 11.40bn.

There is a shortage of complex and phosphate fertilizers in the market, according to industry sources, who say the government is keen on getting existing plants restated.