All posts by traceybg@gmail.com

Market Watch

AMMONIA

U.S. Gulf/NOLA: Nothing new was reported in the market in the past week, leaving Tampa at $931/mt DEL and import business at other Gulf ports at $936/mt DEL. The last done at NOLA was reported at $880/st FOB.

Sources said last week that Tampa could go up again for October should numbers reported for Yuzhnyy hold at around $900/mt FOB or higher. If there is no retreat in the Black Sea, they say Tampa could conceivably hit the $1,000/mt DEL mark.

Correction: The NYMEX closing natural gas price for August 2008 should have read $9.217/mmBtu, not $9.163/mmBtu as reported in recent issues (GM Aug. 4-Aug. 25).

Eastern Cornbelt: The anhydrous ammonia market remained at a nominal $1,040-$1,080/st FOB regional terminals for spot market tons, with the low in Illinois to the dealer. Forward contract postings remained considerably higher at $1,240-$1,250/st FOB regional terminals for October through November.

Western Cornbelt: Sources described fertilizer activity as very quiet in early September, though some pressure was observed on spot pricing. Sources reported virtually no ammonia movement on preplant wheat in the region, which one source described as “very depressing.”

Perhaps that lack of movement was the driving force behind reports of spot ammonia tons priced as low as $940-$950/st FOB in Iowa last week for immediate take, although one source noted that “no one can hold anything” at the moment. Other areas in the region continued to report spot tons in a range of $1,000-$1,050/st FOB, with forward contract ammonia referenced as high as $1,230-$1,240/st FOB for October through November.

Southern Plains: Several sources reported steady movement of ammonia on preplant winter wheat ground, but some stopped short of calling it a heavy run. That was not true everywhere; one source said preplant ammonia movement in his trade area had already surpassed historical levels.

The anhydrous ammonia market was quoted at $910-$915/st FOB production points on the low end, with Terra reportedly on allocation out of its Woodward, Okla., plant. At the upper end of the range, the market was quoted at $950-$975/st FOB Kansas pipeline points. One source said reference pricing FOB Verdigris, Okla., had firmed to the $960/st level last week, some $20-$40/st higher than the previous level.

South Central: Anhydrous ammonia was quoted at $920-$960/st FOB regional terminals to the dealer for spot tons, with the low FOB Memphis, Tenn.

Black Sea: Reports in Asia and Europe began circulating that $900/mt FOB was achieved late last week. Some write this off to hype, while others are convinced the price was indeed hit. The price from Yuzhnyy has been steadily increasing as demand from the U.S., Europe, and especially Asia takes its toll on limited global production.

A number of Black Sea plants remain shut down for routine maintenance. Full production in the area is not expected until October at the earliest.

The biggest push on prices is the lack of production from the Burrup facility in Australia. The closure of that plant because of an explosion in the gas supply system has caused buyers to search for tons wherever they can.

Industry observers were taken aback at the reports of $900/mt FOB being done. One Asian source was not so much surprised at the price, but at how quickly that price was achieved. The buyer was not identified, but sources say it was most likely a major trader.

The public discussion of $900/mt FOB has prompted producers to begin pushing for $950/mt FOB and up. Should the price really hit that level, the price to Europe and the U.S. would be well above $1,000/mt CFR. Sources are not sure those markets will be able to absorb such an increase.

With the latest deal on the books, sources now peg the market at $880-$900/mt FOB.

Middle East: The contract price to India keeps moving up, largely due to occasional higher-priced spot deals. Sources report that even though Indian buyers are not taking as many tons as earlier anticipated, the demand is strong enough to move prices up. Because Indian purchases are less than anticipated, said one Asian source, occasional spot tons have become readily available. With demand strong in Asia, buyers are quick to take the material.

With each Asian purchase, the spot price moves up – and with it the contract price.

Last week India reportedly paid $837/mt CFR for a cargo that two weeks ago would have cost $820/mt CFR. The price increase came as Sabic settled with a trader for an Asian buyer at $842/mt FOB.

The gap between the contract and spot prices remains wide.

If a pricescan included contract and spot prices, the spread would be almost $90. One Asian trader said such a spread is useless for fiscal planning. He noted that because the contract price moves with the spot price, it is better to keep an eye on the spot purchases – at least until the new contracts are up for negotiations.

With the latest spot deal reported, sources now say the spot market is $830-$840/mt FOB. If the contracted tons are included, sources say the Middle East market is $740-$840/mt FOB.

Asia: Demand remains strong. Sources say buyers still need material, but are less willing to pay whatever is offered.

Some of the industrial buyers in Asia are now reported to be having a more difficult time passing on the increased cost of imported ammonia to their buyers along the production chain. Sources say the global economic slowdown is beginning to affect the industrial sector. Some are now telling their buyers to hold off on additional purchases. Others are spending more time shopping around looking for potential savings on their ammonia and other inputs.

The tightness in the Asian market is a direct result of the damage done to the natural gas facility that feeds the Burrup ammonia plant in Australia. Sources say the plant will most likely not be up and running until early next year.

The joint venture ammonia plants in Indonesia, KPA and KPI, have given up on picking up spare tons from Kaltim.

Industry observers point out that Kaltim and other state-owned plants are now so focused on urea production that no spare ammonia is to be found. One source added that the reduction of available ammonia is also due to the problems plants have had getting enough natural gas to run at full capacity.

The bottom line is that ammonia from KPI and KPA is all that is being exported from Indonesia at this time.

UREA

U.S. Gulf: Granular barges were reported to be trading last week within the $752-$760/st FOB range. Sources called the market $752-$755/st early in the week and said it worked its way up as the week progressed. This does represent a boost over the prior week’s $750-$755/st FOB, but certainly not the kind of volatile swings the industry has been so used to seeing this year. Prills were called $745-$750/st FOB.

Eastern Cornbelt: Granular urea was reported at $810-$840/st FOB terminals to the dealer for prompt tons. One source reported an offer for barge-delivered urea tons at considerably lower numbers dockside, but was not sure what the terminal price would be after throughput costs.

Western Cornbelt: Granular urea remained at $800-$830/st FOB in the region, with several sources reporting $810/st FOB as the common dealer number last week.

Southern Plains: Granular urea was pegged at $780-$790/st FOB, with the low reported at Enid, Okla.

South Central: Granular urea pricing was down from last report at $785-$810/st FOB regional terminals to the dealer, with the low reported in Mississippi and the upper end in Arkansas.

Southeast: Granular urea was reported at $840-$860/st FOB port terminals, with the upper end reflecting the list price FOB Savannah, Ga. Sources reported minimal buying activity last week.

Argentina: The Profertil plant was reported back up last week after a brief outage. As recently reported during its earnings cycle, Profertil is going to need a major turnaround between now and early next year. The best estimate now for the turnaround is November, according to an Agrium source.

India: MMTC closed a tender late last week. Offers flooded in, but dramatic spikes in prices were only evident at the fringes. Reportedly, the Indian buyer did not want to pay more than $850-$855/mt CFR, the upper levels of the last IPL tender. By the time of the tender the ceiling was raised to $860/mt CFR.

Plenty of material was offered that met that criteria. The tonnage offered under $860/mt CFR, excluding seller option tons, came to more than 650,000 mt.

Sources say MMTC could easily cover the rest of its 2008-2009 seasonal needs with this tender. The question will be the potential for port congestion if the buyer grabs too much in too short a time.

One Asian trader was conviced that even if MMTC takes the tonnage slated for September and October shipment, it would quickly ask sellers to delay a few of the cargoes so the urea could be better spread out.

20-50 (S/O)

MMTC tender

Supplier/Origin Quantity ‘000 mt Shipment FOB CFR Discharge Port
Transammonia – Open 35-45
1-2 Lots
35-45
35-45 (S/O)
2 lots

60
In 2 or 3 lots

20-30
20-30 (S/O)
30
25-35
20-30 (S/O)
25-35
20-30 (S/O)

Sept 854.50

854.50
859.50

854.50

854.50
859.50
856.50
859.50
859.50
859.50
859.50

Kandla

Kandla
Kandla

Vizag

Vizag
Vizag
Pipavav
Tuticorin
Tuticorin
New Mangalore
New Mangalore

Helm – Open 40-55

20-25 (S/O)
20-25
20-25

25-30

2 x 40-55 (S/O)
20-30

Sept 20-25

Sept 5-8
Sept 22-26
Sept 5-10

Sept 20-25

Sept 20-30

855.50
857.50
855.50
855.50
855.50
857.50
855.50
857.50
855.50
857.50
857.50
Kandla
Pipavav
Vizag
Vizag
Kandla/
Tuticorin
Kandla
Tuticorin
Kandla
Pipavav
Tuticorin
Toepfer – Open 20-25 Sept
Sept/Oct.
856.00
860.00
Paradeep
Kandla
Kisan
Open
40-50
40-50
30-55 (S/O)

40-50
40

30-50

44 (S/O)

25-30 (S/O)

1st Half Sept
1st Half Sept
Sept

2nd Half Sept
2nd Half Sept

2nd Half Sept

Sept

Sept

857
857
857
859.60
857
859.60

857
858.60
857

857

Kandla
Kandla
Kandla
Kakinada
Kandla
Vizag
Kakinada
Kandla
Pipavav
Kandla
Any Port
Kandla
Any Port
Gauri Impex
Open
44

25-30 (S/O)

Sept

Sept

868.45
869.65
867.45
Vizag
Kakinada
Pipavav
Eurochem –
CIS
40-45 (S/O) Mid Oct 876.00 Kandla
Keytrade –
Open
40-60
or
40-60
In 1 or 2 Lots
Sept

Sept/Oct

880.00

885.00

Kandla/Mundra

Vizag

Swiss Singapore
Haiphong/Open
20-25
Bagged
20-25
Sept/
Early Oct
Sept/
Early Oct
870.60

870.60

885.00

889.60

Vizag
Paradeep
Vizag
Paradeep
Dreymoor –
CIS
35-50

35-50 (S/O)

Sept/Oct

Sept/Oct

886.00
895.00
889.00
898.00
Mundra/Kandla
Vizag/Kaki
Mundra/Kandla
Vizag/Kakinada
Ameropa
Open
25-35

75-1,050 (S/O)
In 3-4 lots Seller Op

Sept

Sept/Oct

909.75

909.75

Kandla/Vizag
Kandla/Vizag
Qafco/Qatar 25
25
Sept
Oct
852.00
852.00
Fertil/Abu Dhabi 15-20 End Sept 852.00
PIC / Kuwait
Granular
25
25 (S/O)
Sept
Oct
852.00
852.00
Sabic/Saudi Arabia
Prilled/Granular
25 Sept/Oct 851.00
EFC/Egypt
Granular
50
1-2 Lots
25 (S/O)
50 (S/O)
1-2 Lots
Sept

Sept
Oct
Oct
November

820.00

820.00
840.00

860.00

860.00

865.00
885.00
890.00
900.00
905.00

Kandla

Vizag/Pipa/Tuti
Kandla
Vizag/Pipa/Tuti
Kandla
Vizag/Pipa/Tuti

* Industry Sources

The Middle East offers will have to come down, said sources. At $852/mt FOB, the producers have priced themselves out of contention in this tender.

Area observers are convinced the producers will come down in price, if for no other reason than to attempt to hold onto a portion of the Indian market.

One producer representative said MMTC may be willing to pay a little more – but not too much more – to secure smaller cargoes that can be directed to ports that could make the urea more readily available to local farmers.

Reportedly, the MMTC negotiators were meeting with the lowest offering companies and the Middle East producers into the weekend.

The price in Yuzhnyy had moved up near $820/mt FOB on the heels of the announcement of the tender. But now, said one trader, this tender shows the market has reached its peak. The netbacks on the lowest offers indicate a sub-$800/mt FOB price from the Black Sea.

Sources say the Swiss Singapore tons are actually re-exported Chinese tons to be delivered in a container.

Few in the industry expect to see the price spike any time soon.

India is the largest single buyer at this time. If MMTC takes 500-600,000 mt from this tender, sources say there is little incentive for it or IPL to issue a new purchasing tender for the next couple of months.

The delay in calling this tender, say sources, helped push down the Yuzhnyy price and put pressure on the Middle East. A similar delay for the final round of buying could have the same impact.

China: Beijing announced a new tariff rate schedule effective Sept. 1. For the month of September, export urea is being taxed at 185 percent of plant value. Sources say that puts Chinese urea at $850-$900/mt FOB bagged. The duty will drop to 175 percent for the last quarter. The latest increase in the export tariff indicates how serious the planners in Beijing are when it comes to guaranteeing urea supplies for the domestic market.

The Chinese government has regularly stepped in with ever-increasing export tariffs for the past year and a half. Sources say the central planners grew concerned earlier this year when first quarter exports almost surpassed exports for all of 2007.

The dramatic increase in the price of international urea was drawing more Chinese product to offshore buyers, leaving the domestic market to pay more and more for fewer tons.

An oft-heard phrase in China is that the last thing Beijing wants is 900 million angry farmers. To placate the farmers, the government kept adding duties to discourage exports.

At first all that did was drive up the price of international urea. The tariffs were easily assimilated into the new global pricing.

Once Beijing got serious by more than doubling the cost of the exported urea, the exports slowed to a trickle.

One trader noted that the economic planners have to walk a fine line. They must ensure plenty of low-cost urea to the farmers while also making sure the urea producers do not go broke.

Black Sea: Prices had moved up near $820/mt FOB on reports of an upcoming Indian tender. Once the tender was called, however, the netback to Yuzhnyy appears to indicate pricing closer to $770-$780/mt FOB. Sources are calling the market even lower.

One trader noted that panamax freight from Yuzhnyy to India is about $60/mt. At that rate, the lowest offer of $854/mt CFR comes in at $790/mt FOB. However, the lowest offers are for smaller vessels. Freight for these smaller ships is higher, thus reducing the netback.

Based on the MMTC tender, sources now peg the Black Sea market at $760-$780/mt FOB.

Once MMTC makes its awards, sources are hard pressed to find any other major buyers ready to step up and take cargoes.

Chances are IPL and MMTC will sit back for a while. They will let the tons get loaded and not make any move toward buying once those contracts are filled and producer inventories begin to build.

Middle East: Producers surprised the industry in the MMTC tender by not trying to move their prices up $10-$15/mt. This time around, the offering prices were only a couple of dollars above what industry sources had been calling the spot market.

Even with that modest increase, sources – including one in regular contact with a producer – said the price will have to be cut by $25-$30/mt to make the offers competitive.

Reportedly, MMTC and producer representatives went into meetings right away to talk about changing the offering price.

Sources say the producers will most likely come down, but not as far as MMTC would like. Still, said one observer, the flexibility of taking delivery in smaller vessels allows MMTC to direct the ships to less obvious ports that could be beneficial to the end user. That flexibility has always been worth a couple of dollars, said one source.

Producers say they are under no pressure to lower prices. Contracts and demand remain strong.

Saudi Arabia concluded another deal with Pakistan to provide more urea under a government-to-government aid package. At the same time, Safco 1 is being shuttered for good.

Other producers with contracts around the globe also say there is no need to rush to book new shipments for a while.

Still, said one source, chances are the producers will agree to lower prices as a way to keep a presence in India. One trader recalled a short time back when the Middle East producers refused to lower their prices in post-tender talks and ended up with no new business on their books for about two months. In a subsequent tender the producers dramatically lowered their prices to ensure an award.

The fact that producers provided just one price for prills and granular told some traders that those two markets have once again reached parity.

Unless and until a deal is struck with MMTC, sources say the new price range for the Middle East is $820-$850/mt FOB for prills and granular.

Vietnam: Buyers in the Philippines, Thailand, and Sri Lanka have benefited from Chinese material being re-exported through Vietnam.

Sources report that about 50,000 mt a month passes over the land border or via small barges from China into Vietnam. They add that these tons appear to be heading south without the usual high export tariffs being applied.

The result is bagged urea with Chinese markings being sent throughout the region at significantly lower prices. CIC in Sri Lanka reportedly took delivery of a container of bagged urea at the equivalent price of $685/mt CFR bagged. Considering that tariff-paid Chinese urea is now at a minimum of $830/mt FOB bagged, sources say CIC got a good deal.

Reportedly, the Vietnamese government is willing to allow the re-export process to continue as long as nothing is done to the bagged urea. One source said the material must remain in its original Chinese bags.

Attempts to open the bags to provide a bulk order or to re-bag in Vietnamese bags are actively discouraged by Hanoi. One source said the government is concerned that if the Chinese bags are tampered with, some of the domestically-produced material could find its way into the export order.

Taking a page from the Chinese export playbook, Vietnam placed a high tariff on exports to ensure sufficient domestic supplies.

Bangladesh: BCIC called another tender to close Sept. 8. The buyer wants 50,000 mt each of prilled and granular urea. Sources say shipping inquiries were made for cargoes from Vietnam to Bangladesh. The country is facing a severe urea shortage. Reportedly, BCIC is now moving as quickly as it can to make awards in its tenders and to get winners to ship as quickly as possible.

Pakistan: The Ministry of Food, Agriculture and Livestock on Sept. 1 told the Economic Monitoring Committee (EMC) that an agreement has been signed with the Saudi government for the import of 135,000 mt of urea, with shipments to begin arriving in the first week of September. This would be followed by more shipments, as per the agreed-to schedule. The committee was also informed that the urea availability situation in Punjab and Sindh, particularly in the rice and cotton belts, had improved. However, the local media report that large numbers of farmers are holding protest rallies across the country about the shortage and high price of urea.

Due to urea shortages, the government is watching for movement of product being smuggled into Afghanistan.

Indonesia: Sources report no new steps have been taken to implement the government’s plan to place all state-owned urea manufacturers under one holding company. One trader said the move will have to happen soon, because indicators point to another export tender being called this week or next.

NITROGEN SOLUTIONS

U.S. Gulf: All was quiet on the UAN front, with most folks continuing to call the market $500-$505/st FOB ($15.62-$14.78.unit). Chatter continues that prices may soon fall below the $500/st FOB mark.

Eastern Cornbelt: The UAN market remained at $16.00-$16.79/unit FOB regional terminals for cash tons, with one source quoting a $455/st ($16.25/unit) FOB dealer price in Indiana last week. Reference prices for forward contract UAN-32 tons for October through February remained at significantly higher levels, ranging from $596.80.40-$606.40/st ($18.65-$18.95/unit) FOB regional terminals.

Western Cornbelt: UAN-32 was steady at $510-$525/st ($15.94-$16.41/unit) FOB regional terminals for cash tons to the dealer, with reference prices as high as $17.20/unit FOB. Sources reported few new sales to test the market, however.

Southern Plains: UAN-32 was quoted at $495-$500/st ($15.47-$15.63/unit) FOB regional production points on the low end, with the upper end of the range at $510-$520/st ($15.94-$16.25/unit) FOB terminals to the dealer.

South Central: UAN-32 was also down from last report, with sources quoting the terminal market in a broad range at $495-$520/st ($15.47-$16.25/unit) FOB to the dealer. The low was reported FOB Vicksburg, Miss.

Southeast: Sources quoted the UAN-30 market in a broad range at $465-$488/st ($15.50-$16.27/unit) FOB regional terminals. Some expressed doubt that sales had actually been achieved at the upper end of that range, though they acknowledged that the market should be there based on replacement costs. Supplies in Norfolk, Va., were said to be a little tight, with suppliers there reportedly sticking to the $480-$488/st ($16.00-$16.27/unit) FOB range to the dealer.

UAN vessels were reportedly being indicated in the $550-$580/mt CFR range, with the lower number described by one source as a “bargain.” Others indicated $560/mt as the bottom of the vessel market in early September.

AMMONIUM NITRATE

U.S. Gulf: Recent barge business continued to be called $520-$530/st FOB. Sellers, however, have much higher price ideas for fall cargoes.

Western Cornbelt: Ammonium nitrate was quoted at $550-$600/st FOB in the region.

Southern Plains: Ammonium nitrate was tagged at $560-$575/st FOB the Tulsa, Okla., market, up considerably from last report.

South Central: The ammonium nitrate market was quoted at $535-$575/st FOB in the region, also up significantly from last report.

Southeast: Ammonium nitrate pricing was up from last report at $550/st FOB the Tampa market.

AMMONIUM SULFATE

Eastern Cornbelt: Granular ammonium sulfate was steady at $485-$495/st FOB in the region, with the upper end reflecting dealer reference prices. Effective Sept. 8, Honeywell’s list prices will move to $505/st FOB warehouses or rail-DEL for granular ammonium sulfate, and $485/st FOB or rail-DEL for mid-grade sulfate.

Western Cornbelt: Granular ammonium sulfate remained firm at $475-$495/st FOB last week.

Southern Plains: Granular ammonium sulfate remained at $410-$450/st FOB Texas shipping points.

South Central: Granular ammonium sulfate was tagged at $460-$480/st FOB regional warehouses, up from last report.

Southeast: The granular ammonium sulfate market was quoted at $465-$470/st FOB and $490-$495/st DEL in the region, also up from last report.

PHOSPHATES

Central Florida: All of the major wholesale phosphate markets – including Central Florida – were slow. The situation was not expected to change for another couple of weeks. Phosphate producers and traders were waiting for dealers around the country to begin ordering, but dealers were waiting for farmers, who have yet to begin buying for the fall season.

New prompt sales were absent out of Central Florida last week, but railcars were being filled by earlier orders. In general, phosphate sales were slow – and that will not likely improve until the fall season gets underway. Most dealers’ warehouses were believed to be full.

The Central Florida DAP price range last week was unchanged at $1,070-$1,080/st FOB. PCS Sales’s Central Florida reference price was unchanged at $1,070/st FOB for DAP and had a $25/st FOB premium for MAP. Mosaic’s asking price was $1,090/st FOB for DAP and $1,115/st FOB for MAP, but the company was making sales at $10/st FOB less for both products. CF moved its price down to $1,040/st FOB from $1,050/st FOB for DAP, and from $1,115/st FOB for MAP $1,100/st FOB, but had limited availability. In Texas, Agrifos’ DAP price continued at $1,100/st FOB for trucks and $1,095/st FOB for rail shipments.

U.S. Gulf: A sure sign of fall is when wheat farmers in Oklahoma begin flocking to their local fertilizer dealers for phosphates, but apparently fall will be late this year. Wheat farmers, who did well last year and have the money to spend, were staying home. A source said it was unclear why, but it could be because they sense a weakness in the market and were waiting for prices to go down. Late last week, that was probably a smart move.

Phosphate sales, along with almost all fertilizers, were way down, and there were no indications that will change during the next couple of weeks. “There’s no place to put it,” a trader said. “We have to wait until there’s some space.” Some advance orders were reported from warehouses in the Corn Belt, but even those weren’t scheduled for delivery until later in September. There was balance in the market, because few barges were available. That may last for a short period longer.

Hurricane Gustav did little in the way of serious damage, but phosphate-processing plants at Donaldsonville and Pascagoula went down prior to the storm and then power outages delayed restart. Mosaic’s plant was still out late last week and it was uncertain when they would resume production, but Mississippi Phosphate’s were beginning to come online late in the week.

Meanwhile, NOLA DAP barge prices were on the decline in the stagnant market, and activity will not likely pick up until around the middle of September, which will allow about a month before the upriver closes.

TFI’s conference at Seattle was scheduled to start Sept. 6, but it appeared few new, prompt phosphate sales would occur.

NOLA DAP barge price range declined to $1,000-$1,030/st FOB. MAP barges were $25-$60/st FOB more than DAP. Mosaic’s asking price for NOLA DAP barges was $1,100/st FOB and $1,125/st FOB for MAP, and its prices for October and November were scheduled to increase $10/st FOB. CF was seeking $1,050/st FOB for DAP and to $1,110/st FOB for MAP for prompt deliveries.

Eastern Cornbelt: Sources continued to report some pressure on phosphate pricing, with the warehouse market quoted at $1,065-$1,100/st FOB for DAP and $1,100-$1,150/ st FOB for MAP. 10-34-0 was quoted at $1,175-$1,200/st FOB, where available.

Western Cornbelt: Most sources pegged the DAP market at $1,080-$1,100/st FOB regional warehouses to the dealer, although there were reports of spot sales being offered as low as $1,055-$1,060/st FOB some Mississippi River locations last week. MAP was pegged at $1,105-$1,150/st FOB for prompt sales, with no new business to test the market.

10-34-0 was firm at $1,175-$1,200/st FOB in the region for very limited spot tons.

Southern Plains: Preplant movement of DAP on winter wheat ground was described as very slow. Most blamed cost reductions and high fertilizer prices as the reason for the cutbacks, and several described the slow pace as surprising. One source, noting that field and weather conditions were generally favorable, and that the previous wheat crop was good and growers are looking at dryland corn yields approaching 100 bushels/acre in some areas, said preplant rates and activity should be heavier than normal.

Phosphate pricing was down slightly from last report, with one source speculating that a few sellers were “trying to force some movement” during the lackluster preplant run. DAP was reported at $1,070-$1,080/st FOB Tulsa, with MAP quoted at $1,110-$1,120/st FOB the port.

10-34-0 remained in very tight supply, but sources said limited spot tons could be had in the region for $1,175-$1,250/st FOB last week.

South Central: Phosphate pricing, on the other hand, appeared to be down somewhat from last report. Sources pegged the DAP market at $1,080-$1,110/st FOB regional warehouses to the dealer, with MAP at $1,125-$1,150/st FOB. TSP was reported at $1,050-$1,075/st FOB warehouses.

U.S. Export: No new export sales were made by PhosChem or other North American traders last week, and India claimed it was finding cheaper prices, which was not exactly a boost to the market. However, China has extended its export tariff on phosphates, but even that has failed to promote higher prices.

The value of the U.S. dollar was improving and was up about 10 percent in comparison to the Euro, which may be helping to suppress new export sales.

With no new sales, the export DAP price range remained unchanged at $1,160-$1,215/mt FOB.

POTASH

Eastern Cornbelt: The potash market was reported firmly in the $890-$930/st FOB range, depending on location, grade, and time of delivery, with the low quoted in Indiana for limited tons and strictly for immediate take.

Western Cornbelt: Sources put the potash market in a broad range at $895-$930/st FOB regional warehouses to the dealer, with most quoting the upper half of that range last week.

Southern Plains: Sources quoted the potash market at $900-$925/st FOB regional warehouses to the dealer, with little new business to test the market. Intrepid Potash’s postings firmed on Sept. 2, with 60 percent granular muriate moving to $800/st FOB Carlsbad, N.M., and Moab, Utah, and $818/st FOB Wendover, Utah; 60 percent standard moving to $794/st FOB Carlsbad and Moab, and $812/st FOB Wendover; 62 percent standard moving to $820/st FOB Carlsbad; 62 percent fine standard moving to $823/st FOB Carlsbad; and 62 percent granular moving to $826/st FOB Carlsbad.

South Central: Potash pricing continued to be firm. Sources put the warehouse market in a broad range of $890-$950/st FOB, with the low FOB Vicksburg and the upper end reported in Arkansas to the dealer.

Southeast: Potash pricing continued to firm. Sources pegged the market in a broad range at $850-$925/st FOB, depending on grade and location, with reports of delivered allocated tons at the $855/st mark on the low end. Effective Aug. 13, Agrium’s 60 percent coarse potash postings firmed to $850/st FOB Wilmington, N.C., and Georgia shipping points at Bainbridge and Tifton.

SULFUR

Tampa: With a month to go before third-quarter sulfur contracts expire, something totally unexpected occurred last week – negotiations for the fourth quarter actually began and phosphate producers were seeking a sharp reduction in prices.

During the past few weeks, prices on the world market have taken a steep fall – down about $190/mt FOB – and phosphate producers were ready to take advantage of the situation. Tampa sulfur prices never did reach as high as those in the Middle East or Vancouver, but a big drop was still anticipated by users. Months ago, a source said that when sulfur prices began to fall they would fall far and fast, faster than they rose. That could be the case.

Supplies had improved greatly since the last quarter, but an oversupply still does not exist. With the price of a barrel of oil below $110 refineries have returned to normal production, which has helped supplies. However, one source pointed out that the reason phosphate companies have improved inventories was not because of a large increase from their normal suppliers, but because they have purchased blocks of sulfur at higher prices from other sources.

Hurricane Gustav caused a temporary interruption of sulfur vessels to Tampa, but that situation was returning to normal. Gustav caused little or no damage to offshore oil platforms and little to gulf coast refineries. Two other hurricanes, Hanna and Ike, and Tropical Storm Josephine were in the Atlantic late last week, but were expected to turn north before reaching the Gulf. Any large storm entering the Gulf would be a problem for sulfur transportation and possibly refineries.

Vancouver: Sources said there has been no real change in the market due to China, at least not yet, even though the Olympics have come to an end. Without its phosphate processing plants and other factories running during and in the lead-up to the Summer Olympics, that county’s needs were not that great. Negotiations were continuing last week without progress.

Semester negotiations with Brazil were about to get underway, and the South American country was expected to seek a sharp decrease in pricing.

Pakistan: The state-owned Oil & Gas Development Co. is seeking to sell 5,500 mt of sulfur at a minimum price of $888.29 in some 14 lots. Bidding is through Sept. 16.

The Week in Fertilizer Stocks

Producer Symbol Price Week Ago Year Ago
Agrium AGU 74.08 83.28 46.54
CF Industries CF 123.43 150.60 65.18
Intrepid Potash IPI 36.81 46.60 N/A
Mosaic MOS 87.78 106.25 42.93
PotashCorp POT 150.39 176.69 90.00
Terra Industries TRA 44.10 50.44 26.38
Terra Nitrogen TNH 125.70 120.15 102.95
Distribution/Retail
Andersons Inc. ANDE 45.10 45.47 48.70
Deere & Co. DE 63.50 71.01 68.42
Scotts SMG 27.60 27.02 45.68

PotashCorp restarts Allan mine; workers see greener pastures, says USW

PotashCorp said Aug. 26 that it had restarted the Allan mine in Saskatchewan on Aug. 25. In the meantime, members of the United Steel Workers continue the strike they began Aug. 7.

PotashCorp said it restarted potash mining and milling operations at the Allan facility primarily using staff from this and other PotashCorp operations. The company has also hired about half a dozen non-union workers to do certain jobs.

The company, which normally runs four shifts, is currently operating two. This facility is the largest of the three impacted by the strike, producing 1.74 million mt in 2007. The company said production rates will be determined as the work moves forward.

The company said contingency plans continue to be evaluated for the Cory and Patience Lake facilities, the latter of which only operates between October and May.

PotashCorp said progress on potash debottlenecking and expansion projects at all three sites has been minimally impacted by the strikes. Each project is continuing on schedule.

USW Western Canada Director Stephen Hunt said last week that by refusing to return to the bargaining table, PotashCorp is letting its most skilled employees slip through its fingers.

“Our members are finding jobs in a hot labor market hungry for skilled trades,” said Hunt. “It’s not just a few people, it’s about two-thirds of the PCS workforce. Without our people operating and maintaining production at the three Saskatoon-area mines, the company will have a much harder time restarting full production. It is being extremely short-sighted.”

He said a job fair by Alberta-based Syncrude was held Thursday afternoon (Aug. 28) at the Delta-Bessborough Hotel.

“Union members support their bargaining committee as they have done all along,” said Hunt. “They voted 96 percent against the company’s last offer. Nobody wants a strike, but neither do they want to be told they do not deserve a fair and equitable contract. That’s what this dispute is all about.”

A PotashCorp spokesman took issue with Hunt’s statement about the 96 percent vote on the last offer. He said the union members were never allowed to vote on PotashCorp’s last offer.

USW argues that PotashCorp is receiving far more profit per worker than most mining companies, but it pays wages lower than many other major Canadian mining operations. It says PotashCorp CEO Bill Doyle is perhaps the most highly-compensated Canadian corporate executive. It cited a Globe and Mail report in May revealing that Doyle’s stock options are now worth more than $600-million, a value never before seen for an executive at a public company in Canada.

Overall, USW says there is a glaring inequity between what PotashCorp pays its executives and what it pays its miners. It maintains that the stock options held by top PotashCorp executives are worth more than the wages paid to all PotashCorp employees and royalties paid to the Government of Saskatchewan. USW goes on to say that PotashCorp is worth some $60 billion, and that privatizing the company was one of the worst financial decisions ever made by the province of Saskatchewan. USW reiterates that the potash remains a Crown-owned resource that belongs to the people of Saskatchewan.

PotashCorp argues that its final offer would have made the USW members among the highest paid miners in the world. It also argues that the miners are seeking a $157,000 annual bonus based on 2008 first-half earnings.

In related news, PotashCorp says its New Brunswick potash mine does not have a labor agreement ending in late 2010, as was initially reported in the Green Markets dated Aug. 25. The labor agreement up in late 2010 is at the nearby Cassidy Lake facility, which has fewer than 10 employees. Cassidy Lake employees are represented by the USW, the same union that represents miners at the Cory, Allan, and Patience Lake mines, which are on strike. PotashCorp noted that the New Brunswick miners are non-union.

Phosphate Holdings 2Q earnings up 349 percent; company files restatements, eyes new projects

Phosphate Holdings Inc. (PH), the sole shareholder of Mississippi Phosphates Inc., the Pascagoula phosphate producer, reported a 349 percent increase in net income for the second quarter ending June 30, 2008, to $35 million ($4.32 per diluted share) versus the year-ago $7.8 million ($1.02 per share). Net sales were up 192 percent, to $171.5 million versus the year-ago $58.8 million.

Operating income for the second quarter was up 351 percent, to $55 million from the year-ago $12.2 million. EBITDA was up 314 percent, to $57.9 million from the year-ago $14 million.

“We are delighted to report record results for our second quarter,” said Robert Jones, CEO. “As we move into our third quarter, DAP prices remain near historical highs; however, DAP prices have not yet responded to the sharp increases in the cost of phosphate rock, sulfur and ammonia that we saw at the outset of the quarter. We are optimistic that with the onset of increased seasonal demand, DAP prices will improve and absorb a portion of our higher input costs. For the near term, our carryover inventories of raw materials and finished products will temper the amplitude of margin erosion. In summary, we expect to post solid results for the second half of 2008.”

The average DAP sales price of the quarter was $1,049/st, a 183 percent increase over the year-ago $371/st. First-quarter 2008 prices averaged $593/st. DAP tons sold were 162,427 st in the second quarter, up from 103,917 st in the first quarter, when the company experienced significant plant downtime. Sales into the international market were strong during the quarter versus the wet-weather-impacted domestic market. As a result, netbacks on international tons were $110/st, with sales being weighted toward that market. The company is expecting the second half to see good demand, with expectations that India will need to buy 400-600,000 tons between now and November. The company noted that India saw a 51 percent DAP shortfall in domestic production in July due to restricted phosphoric acid imports. China’s extension of the 135 percent duty on DAP exports was also seen as a positive, as well as greater demand expectations for the U.S. and Brazil. The company noted the recent turnaround in corn prices to $6.00/bushel.

Second-quarter sulfuric acid production was 222,000 st versus the year-ago 143,000 st. DAP production was 168,000 st versus the year-ago 89,000 st.

Going into the third quarter, the company said inventories of DAP were at 30,000 tons and phosphate rock at 200,000 tons.

The number three sulfuric acid plant was down for routine maintenance May 25-June 8, and during this time a new heat exchanger was installed. One was installed in the number two plant in the first quarter. Leaks at both had been depleting efficiency. Each plant is now back at 1,500 st/d production. The company said there was a late June shortfall in sulfur supply due to the delay in the start-up of the adjacent Chevron refinery that supplies sulfur to the plant, with this problem continuing into July. As a result, July sulfuric acid production was 75,000 st and DAP was 57,000 st. However, both plants are running well now, and as of Aug. 24, 70,000 st of sulfuric acid and 51,000 st of DAP had been produced in August. Rates of acid are 2,900 st/d and 2,100 st/d for DAP.

Six-month net earnings were $42 million ($5.19 per share) on sales of $238.7 million, versus the year-ago $33.7 million ($4.40 per share) and $109.9 million, respectively. The average DAP sales price for the six months was $871/st, a 177 percent increase over the year-ago $315/st.

Six-month operating income was up 306 percent, to $66.2 million from the year-ago $16.3 million. EBITDA was up 25 percent to $71.9 million, up from the year-ago $57.6 million. Results for 2007 included $37.8 million in insurance payments from Hurricane Katrina.

As for higher raw material costs, PH told analysts that it is actively negotiating with OCP of Morocco for a new, multi-year phosphate rock agreement. It expects this to be concluded by the end of the year. On sulfur, PH noted that since the conclusion of higher third-quarter contracts that the international market has turned bearish; however, the company also indicated that some of this may have come from China being out of the sulfur market due to the Olympics. The question now appears to be whether China’s return to the market will once again increase world prices. On ammonia, the company noted a “perfect storm” that has served to raise international ammonia prices – annual turnarounds in Russia and Ukraine, the outage on Burrup Peninsula, and the delay of a new plant in Egypt. The start-up in August of Terra Industries Inc.’s Donaldsonville plant was seen as one bright spot. Terra confirmed last week that the plant is making ammonia and that it is “cautiously optimistic,” about the start-up.

PH said it has no net debt and no plans to rebuy stock. As a result, it is looking at various capital expenditures. One such expenditure that is approved to proceed is a new 15,000 st sulfuric acid tank, with an approximate cost of $3 million. The company is also evaluating a 40,000 st UAN tank, as well as a $125-$150 million investment in a new sulfuric acid plant.

PH has also been preparing its financial information to enhance liquidity and value, which could lead to a potential IPO in the future. PH retained KPMG LLP to perform a comprehensive review of 2006 and 2007 historical financial statements, which has resulted in a restatement of annual financial statements for 2005-2007. “The restatements primarily reflect adjustments to prior applications of accounting principles and are generally “non-cash” in nature,” said Jones. “While there are significant timing differences in income recognition and a reduction in aggregate net income over the three-year period, the adjustment to our primary metric, aggregate EBITDA, is not significant.”

Two major components of the restatement included valuation of the business after its emergence from bankruptcy in 2004. The reassessment resulted in a new value of the business of $10.6 million rather than $21.5 million. In addition, the company determined that a net gain of $37.8 million from insurers due to Hurricane Katrina damage should have all been recognized in 2007, rather than in 2006 and 2007.

PH Restated and Reported Results 2005-2007

Restated Earlier Reported
2005 Net Sales 100.7 110.6
2005 Net Income 4.9 .072
2006 Net Sales 131.6 129.7
2006 Net Loss/Income (1.7) 33.1
2007 Net Sales 222.4 215.8
2007 Net Income 48.9 40.2

Figures in millions; source Phosphate Industries

For more details, see www.missphosphates.com.

Mag Potash files prospectus; more reserves in Congo than originally thought

MagIndustries Corp. said Aug. 26 that its subsidiary, MagMinerals Potash Corp., has filed a preliminary prospectus in all provinces of Canada to qualify the distribution of common shares issuable in connection with the amalgamation of MagPotash and MagMinerals Holdings Corp. These common shares will be issued to MagIndustries (currently the sole shareholder of MagPotash) and the purchasers of the common shares of MagMinerals Holdings issued in connection with the April 2008 private placements and the strategic investment completed in July 2008. Through these private placements of equity completed in April 2008 (25,250,000 shares at $4.00 per share) and June 2008 (15,000,000 shares at $5.00 per share), MagPotash has raised $176 million.

The prospectus will also qualify the issuance from treasury of common shares as a part of the initial public offering of the post-amalgamation MagPotash. Upon clearance of a final prospectus, MagPotash will become a reporting issuer in each province of Canada.

The preliminary prospectus discloses that the previously announced C$35 million financing with Portonovo, an entity controlled by Socofran CDE’s Director General Hubert Pendino, is intended to be restructured as a C$12 million private placement by Interco Potash (formerly Portonovo) and a C$23 million equity arrangement with Socofran.

Under the agreement with Socofran, a Congolese company retained by MagPotash, Socofran is to provide civil engineering and construction services and will receive 4,568,157 common shares of MagPotash at a deemed issue price of C$5.00 per common share as consideration for its services. It is anticipated that the common shares to be issued in consideration for Socofran’s services will be issued from time to time as services are rendered by Socofran, and that they will be subject to applicable resale restrictions imposed under Canadian securities laws.

The private placement to Interco Potash is expected to be completed prior to the amalgamation, in which case the common shares issuable to Interco Potash under the amalgamation will also be qualified by the prospectus.

In addition, MagIndustries has subscribed for an additional two million MagPotash common shares at a price of C$5.00 per common share. As a result of this subscription, and following the completion of the amalgamation and the investment by Interco Potash, MagIndustries will hold an aggregate of 96 million common shares of MagPotash, representing 69.7 percent of the common shares outstanding (62.9 percent on a fully-diluted basis).

The proceeds of the treasury offering, the size of which will be subject to a minimum and maximum amount to be determined when the final prospectus is filed, will be used to fund additional equity requirements for the construction of Phase I of MagPotash’s potash project near Mengo in the Kouilou province of the Republic of the Congo. MagPotash’s planned Kouilou Potash mining and processing plant is located 25km from the port city of Pointe Noire, Republic of Congo. The project is intended to be built in two phases with each module specified at 600,000 mt/y, for a total capacity of 1.2 million mt/y of potash.

The securities offered have not been registered under the U.S. Securities Act of 1933, as amended, and may not be offered or sold in the U.S. absent registration or exemption from the registration requirements.

In other news, MagIndustries says a new technical report indicated more potash reserves than earlier believed. In the original report, proven reserves were estimated to be 17.9 million mt of KCl, with probable reserves estimated at 3.1 million mt. The revised estimate of proven and probable reserves is 33.5 million mt of KCl, which is sufficient to support 28 years of production at a rate of 600,000 mt of K60 potassium chloride (KCl) for the first two years of production and 1,200,000 mt of K60 KCl per year for the remaining 26 years. At a production rate of 600,000 mt of K60 per year, the KCl reserves are adequate for a project lifetime of 54 years. At a production rate of 1,200,000 mt of K60 per year, the KCl reserves are adequate for a project lifetime of 27 years. These reserves lie within a 25 square kilometer (sq km) portion of the 136 sq km Mengo Exploitation Permit, which was granted in March 2008. The study area represents approximately 18 percent of MagPotash’s Mengo Exploitation Permit area of 136 sq km. MagPotash retains exclusive rights to a further 1,472 sq km of potentially developable area through the Makola Exploration Permit.

In the meantime, MagIndustries has named Norbert Grueschow to the positions of chief technical advisor – solution mining and member of the technical advisory board of MagMinerals Potash Corp. He has over 30 years of international experience in research and development in potash mining, with a particular focus on solution mining technology and evaporite ore chemistry, as well as project management. His experience includes advising on carnallite solution mining projects in Germany, Russia, The Netherlands, Thailand, Brazil, and Ethiopia. Grueschow will be available to MagPotash for the execution of the US$723 million Kouilou potash mining and processing project. He has been working for MagIndustries and MagPotash as a consultant since 1998, and laid the foundation for the Kouilou process flow sheet. Grueschow, who was granted Bachelor’s and Master’s degrees in chemical engineering by the Technische Hochschule für Chemie, Merseburg, Germany, has filed over 50 patents related to solution mining processes and operations.

La. commissioner seeks fert. price investigation

Baton Rouge-Agriculture and Forestry Commissioner Mike Strain, DVM, has called on the Louisiana congressional delegation and the United States Department of Agriculture to investigate the disparity between the demand and cost of phosphate fertilizer. In a letter addressed to the delegation and USDA Secretary Ed Schafer, Strain said the demand for phosphate between the years 2001-2006 has increased 13 percent, while current retail costs to agricultural producers have risen 365 percent. “Phosphate fertilizers have gone from $4.70 per unit to $17.15 this year,” Strain said. “I’d like to see what can be done to help push those costs down.” Strain said the costs of raw materials used in fertilizer production have all risen, but sulfur prices have shot up dramatically. “Sulfur cost $28.70 per ton in 2003 and $40 per ton in 2007,” Strain said. “In 2008, open market spot prices for sulfur can be as much as $500 per ton. In addition, there are so many railroad restrictions and regulations that rail transportation costs to ship ammonia and sulfuric acid have risen disproportionately.” Strain said rising fertilizer costs will drastically affect commodity prices. “Fertilizer and fuel are two of the greatest input costs our farmers, ranchers and foresters must overcome to be profitable,” Strain said. “Agricultural producers figure their profit margins and decide what crops to plant based on these numbers. These skyrocketing costs will have a major impact on our nation’s ability to produce affordable fuel and fiber.” The North Dakota congressional delegation has already asked the Federal Trade Commission and the USDA to investigate higher fertilizer prices (GM Archives). The FTC is pursuing the matter.

Agrotain/Lange-Stegmann celebrate grand opening

St. Louis-Agrotain International and its parent, Lange-Stegmann Company, are expecting a large national and international turnout for the grand opening on Sept. 16 of their new facilities in St. Louis. The new $20 million investment includes a Stablilized Nitrogen Center and the St. Louis Urea Center. Mike Stegmann, Lange-Stegmann president, said the investment in the two facilities was driven by skyrocketing demand and a strong history of partnership with customers. “The new Urea Center will allow our customers to use the facility as part of their own supply networks and provide affordable access to urea fertilizer from around the world,” said Stegmann. “Our Stabilized Nitrogen Center, on the other hand, will help improve the efficiency of nitrogen from urea in this time of record-breaking demand, when growers need the most from every ounce of their fertilizer investment.” Because they are strategically located on a section of the Mississippi River that is lock- and ice-free, the company says both facilities ensure year-round access to and from the country’s agricultural heartland by road, rail, and river transport. The Urea Center has a massive storage capacity of 63,000 st, with the ability to turn over its inventory four times a month. The Stabilized Nitrogen Center implements a one-of-a-kind process of phase modification that takes the basic nitrogen commodity and transforms it into an enhanced efficiency nitrogen source. The companies have invited thousands of representatives from the local, national, and international agriculture industry, as well as a number of government officials, to attend the grand opening, but the event is open to all interested farmers, retailers and related agribusinesses. For more information on the event, and to RSVP, interested parties can go to www.UreaCenterTour.com.

ACCC sees no breach of Trade Practices Act

Canberra-The Australian Competition and Consumer Commission reports that it has not been provided with any evidence suggesting a likely breach of the Trade Practices Act by any participant in the Australian fertilizer industry. The ACCC said the rise in fertilizer prices in the country is mainly attributable to rapidly increasing global fertilizer prices. It said these increases have been caused by a substantial increase in world demand for fertilizer associated with an expansion in agricultural production and by rises in costs of production associated with the increasing cost of energy. This is occurring in a market where the global supply capacity is limited in the short-to-medium term, said the ACCC. The Commission noted that much of the concern raised was how quickly prices rose between late 2007 and early 2008. It said much of this increase was caused by a situation of deficiency in short-term supply associated with an unexpected bringing forward of demand by end users in the context of rapidly increasing world prices.

Nature’s Blend under Ohio EPA scrutiny

Warren, Ohio-Claims of leaching into a nearby river haven’t shut down production of Nature’s Blend fertilizer at the Warren wastewater treatment plant, according to city officials. “We did have some cause for concern at one point,” stated Tom Angelo, city pollution control director. “But we’re still operating and continue to deliver to our customer base.” Angelo said he’s writing a response to the Ohio Environmental Protection Agency, which is threatening fines of up to $60,000 a day if leachate from the Nature’s Blend plant into the Mahoning River isn’t stopped. Angelo wouldn’t say what he’s going to tell Ohio EPA, but he told the local press that there is no runoff into the river. According to an Aug. 4 letter from the Ohio EPA, the violations stem from an undocumented stockpile behind the plant where leaves and treated sewage are put out to dry for use in the Nature’s Blend fertilizer. The EPA claims that leachate from these piles can enter an “outfall” area that drains into the Mahoning. He also declined to comment on reports that the local police are investigating whether some of the fertilizer was moved from the stockpile against an EPA order. Angelo said a trench dug around the stockpile is catching runoff, and the city’s own testing at the site indicated no pollutants were entering the river. The Nature’s Blend product line is being supplied to the Giant Eagle grocery store chain, with distribution to approximately 200 stores in three states. In the meantime, Warren is continuing to explore new distribution opportunities and has expanded its Nature’s Blend Partnership Program, which unites cities across the country and promotes the acceptance of Nature’s Blend. The latest addition to the program is O’Fallon, Mo.