AMMONIA

U.S. Gulf: Players say they are now starting to discuss December business. Price ideas appear to be higher, as those of the Black Sea seem to be moving up. Sellers cite additional factors in their favor: higher gas prices in Europe, which may cause shuttered production; minor blips in Trinidad; plant turnarounds in Asia; and a resumption of urea production in Iran, so less ammonia availability.

In addition, the FertiNitro plant in Venezuela has reportedly been down since Oct. 19 due to mechanical problems. One ammonia and one urea plant were reported to have tried to restart earlier this week. Koch had not responded to inquiries at press time.

In the meantime, Koch has reportedly bought 35,000 mt of ammonia for prompt shipment from Kuwait to Beaumont. Sources estimate that the product could hit the shore in December with an estimated price of $370/mt CFR.

While most players continued to call the ammonia barge market a sleepy $300/st FOB for the last done business, there was one report of $350/st FOB barge being done. However, more details and time frames were not immediately available.

Eastern Cornbelt: Most of the chatter in the region last week centered on ammonia movement, which was described by one source as “running wild.” As a result, spot market supplies were extremely tight, with many locations out of product as the week advanced. One Illinois source pegged the low end of the spot market at the $550/st FOB mark for limited tons early in the week, while others quoted a $560-$570/st FOB range as the week advanced, “if you can find any.”

As for spring prepay, sources said orders were taken early in the week at the $575/st FOB mark, but most offers had moved to $580-$590/st as the week advanced, with one supplier reportedly referencing a $595/st FOB mark for spring prepay ammonia at midweek. Illinois sources also talked of prompt ship ammonia moving into the region from southern production points at a $600/st truck-DEL price last week.

Those numbers, along with the blistering demand, had many sources simply shaking their heads last week. One said he thinks demand will remain hot as long as growers have open ground and favorable weather, further straining spot market supplies but taking pressure off the spring application season.

Western Cornbelt: With daytime temperatures climbing into the 50s and 60s and nights dropping down to the 30s, sources said weather conditions were ideal for fall ammonia applications. Growers and dealers were taking full advantage, with very heavy movement and tapped out ammonia inventories reported throughout the region last week.

The ammonia spot market was quoted at $530-$550/st FOB, provided spot tons could be had, with the upper end reported in Missouri. One source also quoted at the $550-$575/st DEL range from southern production points last week, with netbacks bringing the FOB price to $460-$465/st FOB Oklahoma terminals. One producer had reportedly moved its ammonia price in Kansas from $465/st to $475/st early in the week, but had no open market tons for sale as the week advanced.

Northern Plains: Sources reported heavy fall ammonia movement in the region, particularly in Minnesota, eastern and central North Dakota, and parts of South Dakota. Dry conditions slowed the application pace in western North Dakota, however. With some reporting ammonia usage rates approaching “historic” levels in Minnesota, one source expressed some surprise at the heavy movement, noting warm ground temperatures and daytime highs climbing into the low 60s at mid-month.

As a result of the brisk demand, ammonia was in tight supply, with many terminals either out or on strict allocation. Minnesota sources pegged the spot market at $525-$550/st FOB “if you can find it.” North Dakota sources quoted delivered
ammonia at $580-$590/st for spot, with no spring prepay being offered.

Great Lakes: Ammonia pricing was quoted at $560-$585/st FOB in the region, if available, with the low quoted for very limited spot tons and the upper end for spring prepay. Spot availability was the key question, though, with several sources saying terminals were tapped out due to heavy demand.

Black Sea: Producers are now offering at $300/mt FOB, and sources in Asia say they will probably get it by the end of this week. Others, however, don’t see the market moving that far.

Demand from the United States and Europe practically guarantees higher prices, said one source.

Natural gas prices in Europe are increasing at a rate that some ammonia producers are looking to shut down. Any closures in Europe will lead to an immediate increase in demand for imported ammonia. The Baltic and Black Sea operations are the most likely candidates to fill that need.

The storm that raged through the upper Black Sea last week delayed a vessel booked by Nitrochem to such a degree that Nitrochem had to cut a deal with Mitsubishi to cover a contract to Korea. Sources say the vessel is unharmed, but the delay reached the point that a substitute cargo had to be booked quickly.

Between the storm in the north and the usual delays to pass through the Bosporus Straits, delivered prices from the Black Sea are heading up.

While the producers are asking $300/mt FOB, sources in Asia say that level has not yet been hit. They added, however, that $300/mt FOB will arrive.

Industry observers note that the price had not gone this high since this time two years ago, when prices reached $320/mt FOB. Almost as soon as that high-water mark was reached, however, the price began a steady downward slide.

This time, say sources, there are few incentives for softer prices in the next month or so.

Still, sources argue that $270/mt FOB is the absolute top. Those who argue the price is higher than that say the difference in opinion may be due to differences in local delivered prices and freight rates.

For now, the price remains below $300/mt FOB. Given the difference in views on pricing industry, observers put the market at $265-$285/mt FOB.

Middle East: Sabic had been trying to push off tons for the past few weeks at $265/mt FOB. No one wanted to buy because the asking price was $15-$20 higher than the conventional wisdom.

Following the FACT/India tender, traders are now wishing they could get the tons for that low price.

The FACT/India tender pushed prices beyond Sabic’s hoped-for price. Sources now estimate that once the $35/mt freight and a few more dollars for the package to India’s west coast are backed off, Sabic got $290/mt FOB for its material. Others call the freight closer to $45/mt FOB. Either way, the market has moved up significantly from the low $360s/mt FOB of the last couple of weeks.

Asian sources say FACT settled with Sabic quickly.

Additional sales in the low $270s/mt FOB on the heels of the FACT tender confirm higher prices for all buyers.

One deal from the area pegged at $270/mt FOB was by Koch from PIC for the U.S. market. Another was just above that level for Europe.

Between these two deals and the FACT tender, sources say the spread in prices looks wide enough to accommodate all points of view of the market.

One Asian trader, however, said the $270/mt FOB material was contracted and gone so fast it should not be included in anyone’s calculations to buy December tons.

Area producers, never shy to take advantage of a rising market, moved their suggested offer price to $300/mt FOB.

Across the board, producers are reporting tight inventories. Observers note, however, that if the price is right, some tons may “miraculously” appear.

The product from the new plant Yara and Qafco will build is expected to be snapped up by an ammonia-hungry market.

Once completed in early 2011, Qafco 5 will increase its ammonia output to almost 4 million mt/y.

For now, the $300/mt FOB price set by the producers has not yet been consummated.

Asian sources say a rational price estimate is $275-$290/mt FOB.

India: The FACT/India tender closed Nov. 12 and set a new price for imports.

Unfortunately for buyers, said one trader, the new price is a floor instead of a ceiling.

Offers in the tender follow:

Freight to the west coast from the Middle East is pegged at $35/mt FOB. Transportation costs to the east coast are put at $45/mt. Sources differ on the exact value. One trader said the shipping package to the west coast could be as high as $40/mt FOB.

The tender sets prices for not only FACT tender purchases, but will now also serve as a guideline for contracted tons by other buyers.

Indian buyers continue to run ahead of last year’s purchase rate. With the new prices set by this tender, sources say the costs will also run well ahead of previous years.

Asia: Mitsubishi dipped into its reserves to cover a Nitrochem deal to South Korea.

Sources say the Japanese company took tons from the reserves created by its Indonesian joint venture operation in preparation for a scheduled turnaround.

Industry watchers were keen to point out that this was not a swap, but a buy-and-deliver deal.

The Nitrochem material was delayed coming out of Yuzhnyy because of the large storm that damaged a number of other vessels. Sources say the Nitrochem vessel was not harmed, but it was delayed so much by bad weather that it could not make the delivery window needed by the buyer.

Throughout the region, ammonia demand remains strong. The scheduled turnarounds in Indonesia by KPI and KPA are expected to keep the market tight.

UREA

U.S.Gulf: Granular barge prices took a breather last week. One player said they will likely remain quiet for the holidays all the way into the New Year. Most players put new prompt business within the $410-$420/st FOB range, though there were some buyers who thought you could do better.

Western U.S.: Agrium’s granular urea postings were slated to move on Nov. 19 to $455-$470/st DEL in Montana and Wyoming, depending on location; $480/st FOB Washington warehouse locations at Glade, Kennewick, Warden, and Wilson; $485/st DEL in Washington, Oregon, Idaho, and northern Nevada; $495/st DEL in northern and central Utah; and $500/st DEL in southern Utah. Those levels represent a $30/st increase from the company’s Nov. 2 urea postings in the region.

Eastern Cornbelt: While most of the attention was focused on ammonia, granular urea pricing continued to climb as well. Sources quoted the low end of the range at the $430/st FOB mark, and that came from Illinois sources out of spot river locations and from one Ohio source who quoted that figure FOB Cincinnati on Nov. 12. The upper end of the range, however, had reportedly firmed to the $460/st mark FOB inland terminals, with one supplier referencing a $475/st FOB price in Ohio last week.

Western Cornbelt: Granular urea was pegged at $430-$440/st FOB in the region, with the upper level reported out of spot Missouri River locations.

Northern Plains: Granular urea was quoted at $425-$435/st FOB in Minnesota, also up from last report. One Dakota source confirmed a $430/st DEL price earlier in the month, but North Dakota sources at midweek said no delivered numbers were available for urea out of Canada. Some speculated that $450-$465/st DEL might catch the range
when tons are offered again.

Agrium’s granular urea postings firmed on Nov. 2 to $425/st FOB Shakopee, Minn., and North Dakota terminals at Alton, Carrington, Colfax, Marion and Scranton. The company’s rail-DEL urea postings moved on that date to $430/st in Minnesota and the Dakotas. Another increase on Nov. 19 will take those reference levels to $455/st FOB Shakopee, Alton, Carrington, Colfax, Marion, and Scranton, and $460/st DEL in Minnesota, Wisconsin, and the Dakotas.

Great Lakes: Granular urea was pegged at $459-$470/st FOB in the region, with the low quoted by Wisconsin sources FOB upriver terminals based on netbacks from $471/st truck-DEL pricing.

Northeast: Granular urea pricing in the region was up significantly from last report. Sources tagged the market in a broad range at $465-$480/st FOB, with the low at Philadelphia, Pa., and the upper end to the dealer FOB Baltimore, Md. New reference prices were reported at the $485/st mark FOB Baltimore last week. That range compared with $390-$395/st FOB Baltimore and Philadelphia three weeks ago. One source also reported booking urea earlier in the month at a $415/st FOB Baltimore price for November shipments, before several back-to-back increases for spot tons since then.

Black Sea: Producers remain comfortable and bullish. And well they should. Each week for the past month has pushed the Yuzhnyy price into new record territory.

Sources say sales to Turkey and Brazil at $365-$370/mt FOB are keeping suppliers happy. Producers are now asking $375/mt FOB, and sources say no one should be surprised if that price is achieved.

Just a year ago the Black Sea was selling at $221-$225/mt FOB. Despite increased competition from China that caused the virtual closing of the Indian market to product from the Black Sea, Yuzhnyy sales have continued full steam ahead to Europe and Latin America.

The combination of strong demand and increasing production costs has driven the Yuzhnyy price to current levels.

The latest bit of business at $365-$370/mt FOB is the new benchmark. Sources say the producers’ demand for $375/mt FOB will probably be met soon.

The big question will be how precipitous the fall in the first quarter of 2008 will be. By then all major buyers will have secured the tons needed for the upcoming application season. Traditionally, prices have fallen during that time.

However, Black Sea prices have also traditionally fallen after tenders from India closed. And that has not happened this year.

Middle East: Producers were happy to take the business they did under the MMTC tender. They are especially happy to see that MMTC accepted the initial set of prices in the mid-$360s/mt FOB.

As talks about additional tons progressed, the $370/mt FOB offered by PIC and Qafco for January was starting to look good to the Indians.

Unfortunately for the buyers, the producers are now not as willing to sell at that level.

Sources say while $370/mt FOB has not been achieved in the area, producers now think that should be the absolute lowest price a buyer should pay. The Indian buyers, at the same time, are arguing that sub-$370/mt FOB is more reasonable.

Middle East suppliers are comfortable in the sales already on the books and know that if they can hold off on new business until January, they can keep their pricing expectations up.

The January deadline is when Chinese urea will face a doubling of the export duty from 15 percent to 30 percent. The additional costs will either increase the price of the Chinese cargoes or cause the producers to look to domestic markets. No matter what occurs, it’s good news for the Middle East suppliers.

India is expected to make one more round of purchases before the year is over. Sources speculate the deals will favor west coast India deliveries. If that happens, the Middle East producers remain in the best position to take significant business.

The old last-done business at $345/mt FOB is long gone, say sources. One trader said the MMTC tender showed conclusively that the market has moved beyond that. One observer noted there may be some material in the $350s/mt FOB that will be loaded soon, but for all practical purposes the regional market has moved into the $360s/mt FOB.

By mid-December the price is expected to be in the upper $360s/mt FOB, with the producers’ wish of $370/mt FOB not far behind.

For now, the price is pegged at $345-$365/mt FOB.

India: MMTC has been trying to convince companies who did not initially get awarded contracts from the last tender to sell at the tender price.

The offering companies – mostly those from the Middle East – are not having any of it.

With global prices moving up and Chinese port congestion becoming a growing concern, the Indian buyers are finding few suppliers willing to cut them a deal.

Industry observers expect to see at least one more tender, probably just before the U.S. Thanksgiving. By then MMTC will have had to settle its last set of deals from the tender.

One more tender for 300-400,000 mt should fulfill India’s urea needs, say sources. Some argue the final tender of the year might need to go as high as 600,000 mt, but even they are not sure where the tons can be found.

China: Labor shortages at major ports continue to cause some concern for firms that booked tons for India. Sources say at least one major trading house alone needs to load 700,000 mt in the next five weeks. Other purchases made for India take the total from China that still needs to be loaded close to 1 million mt.

Sources say the increase in the export duty will hit cargoes not processed by customs agents. One trader said this description sounds as though if the tons are not yet on a vessel but have been cleared through customs by Dec. 31, the lower tariff applies.

In the past, Beijing has insisted that only material loaded onto ships or in the process of doing so by the end of the year qualifies to keep the lower rate.

Chinese urea is now pegged at $300-$305/mt FOB bagged.

NITROGEN SOLUTIONS

Eastern Cornbelt: The UAN market was relatively quiet, with several sources quoting the range at $10.00-$10.40/unit FOB regional terminals, depending on location and time of delivery.

Western Cornbelt: UAN-32 was quoted in a broad range at $320-$340/st ($10.00-$10.63/unit) FOB regional terminals, with the upper end reflecting new dealer reference prices in Missouri.

Northern Plains: UAN pricing was pegged in a broad range at $10.20-$10.80/unit FOB for spot market tons, with spring prepay reportedly being offered at $10.40-$11.00/unit FOB, depending on location and supplier. A North Dakota source quoted delivered UAN-28 at $295-$300/st ($10.54-$10.71/unit), but said no new orders were being taken at mid-month.

Great Lakes: The UAN market was tagged at $10.40-$10.60/unit FOB regional terminals for spot or prepay tons, depending on location. Solutions inventories were described as tight.

Northeast: The UAN-30 spot market was quoted at $310-$315/st ($10.33-$10.50/unit) FOB Baltimore to the dealer last week. Some claimed spot deals on limited tonnage could be had at slightly lower levels, but no prices were confirmed. That range was up dramatically from spot values at $277-$281/st ($9.23-$9.37/unit) FOB three weeks ago. One source also reported booking spring prepay UAN-30 earlier at the $287/st ($9.57/unit) FOB level, with product pulled by March 31.

Out of terminals in upstate New York, the UAN market was quoted in a broad range at $10.53-$11.25/unit FOB, with the upper end reflecting new reference prices at some locations. As for current replacement costs, sources said UAN vessel prices were being indicated as high as $350/mt C&F for the next round of business, although no business had been transacted at that level yet.

AMMONIUM NITRATE

Western Cornbelt: Ammonium nitrate was quoted at $340-$350/st FOB in the region.

AMMONIUM SULFATE

Eastern Cornbelt: Granular ammonium sulfate pricing remained at a firm $230-$240/st FOB in the region.

Western Cornbelt: Granular ammonium sulfate was quoted at $230-$240/st FOB, with the upper end to dealers FOB spot Missouri River locations.

Northern Plains: Granular ammonium sulfate was quoted at $245/st FOB in Minnesota for November and December, with delivered sulfate pegged at the $245-$255/st mark in North Dakota. Agrium’s ammonium sulfate posting firmed on Nov. 9 to $245/st rail-DEL in Minnesota and the Dakotas.

Great Lakes: Granular ammonium sulfate was reported at $235-$240/st FOB in the region. One Wisconsin source pegged mid-grade sulfate at the $215/st FOB mark earlier in the month, but the supplier was reportedly not taking new orders at that level last week. Agrium’s ammonium sulfate posting firmed on Nov. 9 to $245/st rail-DEL in Wisconsin.

Northeast: Granular ammonium sulfate was referenced at $233/st FOB Philadelphia and $235/st FOB E. Liverpool, Ohio. Sources continued to quote delivered granular sulfate in the $230-$239/st range in the region, depending on supplier.

PHOSPHATES

Central Florida: Prompt sales of phosphates out of Central Florida slowed last week, but producers were still loading railcars at a feverish pace. Many or most buyers have already placed their orders well into early next year, and most traders were not taking prepaid orders. One trader explained that has been a problem for some of his customers, because they have earned high profits this year and would like to pay up front for future deliveries to help hold down taxes. Apparently, that will be difficult to do.

Production at Mosaic’s New Wales phosphate processing plant in Polk County, Fla., was not curtailed as a result of damage to a ammonia pipeline owned by Tampa Bay Pipeline in the Riverview area on Nov. 12 (see page one).

Estimates held last week that phosphate prices will continue to rise. In part, that was based on the most recent sale by PhosChem into Mexico at $520/mt FOB, which would equal a Central Florida price of $463/st FOB. Producers have been trying to keep domestic and export prices approximately equal, but the world demand for phosphate has made that difficult.

Last week, the price range for Central Florida was unchanged at $415/st FOB and $425/st FOB, but new prompt sales will be done at a higher price. Mosaic’s asking price for DAP remained at $440/st FOB, and its MAP price was $436/st FOB. PotashCorp’s Central Florida reference price held at $440/st FOB; CF’s asking price moved from $430/st FOB to $440/st FOB, and its price for MAP was $3/st FOB lower than DAP. MAP supplies were said to be unavailable. In Texas, Agrifos increased its truck price last week to $480/st FOB from $460/st FOB and hiked its rail price from $455/st FOB to $475/st FOB, although railcars were sold out into January.

U.S. Gulf: The first of last week, when business was slow, was the time to buy phosphate on the Gulf’s river system, but by Wednesday prices climbed again. Activity out of warehouses rose substantially on the Arkansas, the Western Cornbelt, and the upriver areas, and was still working at a strong and steady pace elsewhere in the Midwest last week. Apparently, dealers were emptying their bins for fall applications and were seeking to refill for spring.

One trading firm sold out of its barge inventory in the middle of last week, and said it will be a buyer this week. All of those sales were made at the top of the week’s range. In addition, prices for forward sales continued to rise last week. A sale for delivery in early February was done at $472/st FOB, and another trader said they had been offered $475/st FOB for a January delivery. Meanwhile, Mosaic’s current asking price through the end of the year remained at $460/st FOB last week, but will likely increase in the near future.

Along the Arkansas, sales from warehouses were much stronger than usual for this time of year, but the reason was unclear. Later planting for winter wheat may have played a part, and possibly an increase in row crops planted.

More than one source noted that in their many years in the industry, they had never seen prices so high. One added, “High prices cure high prices.” The situation is unlikely to change as long as grain prices remain high.

Mosaic made a sale of TSP on the river at $410/st FOB last week, and quickly increased the price to $415/st FOB.

Early last week a buy of two NOLA DAP barges was made at $450/st FOB, but by the middle of the week new sales were done at $460/st FOB, which set the NOLA DAP barge price range.

Eastern Cornbelt: Phosphate pricing continued its upward surge last week, and movement to the field in plowdown applications remained heavy in the region. The market was pegged at $477-$485/st FOB for DAP and MAP, with the low out of spot river locations and the upper numbers inland. No pricing updates were reported for TSP. An Ohio source pegged the 10-34-0 market at the $410/st FOB mark last week.

Western Cornbelt: DAP and MAP were pegged at $475-$485/st FOB regional warehouses, reflecting another sizable increase from the previous week, with the low end of the range reported in St. Louis. No current prices were reported for 10-34-0 last week.

Northern Plains: Minnesota sources reported brisk movement of phosphates and potash at mid-month. DAP and MAP pricing were quoted firmly at the $480-$485/st FOB Twin Cities mark. Delivered MAP in North Dakota was pegged at $515-$530/st, depending on supplier and point of origin. Both ranges were up significantly from last report.

10-34-0 pricing had also firmed, to $400/st FOB and $410/st DEL in the region. Agrium’s phosphoric acid prices for Minnesota and the Dakotas firmed on Nov. 1 to $715/st rail-DEL for merchant grade acid (MGA) and $725/st rail-DEL for super phosphoric acid (SPA). Postings for both products will increase by $10/st in December.

Great Lakes: DAP was quoted as high as $506/st truckDEL in central Wisconsin last week, which sources said backed up to the $490/st FOB warehouse mark, give or take. The regional market for DAP and MAP was pegged at $485-$495/st FOB, up dramatically from last report. No current market was reported for TSP or 10-34-0 in the region last week.

Northeast: DAP and MAP pricing were quoted at $482-$487/st FOB Philadelphia and E. Liverpool to the dealer, reflecting another sizable increase from last report. One source quoted a delivered DAP price of $505/st to New England at mid-month. No updated prices were reported for 10-34-0 last week.

Western U.S.: Agrium’s MAP postings firmed on Nov. 12 to $505/st DEL in Montana and Wyoming; $510/st DEL in southern Idaho, Utah, Nevada, and Oregon’s Malheur County; $510/st FOB and $515/st DEL in Washington, northern Idaho, and Oregon excluding Malheur County; and $520/st rail-DEL and FOB warehouse in California and Arizona.

U.S. Export: Export prices continued to rise last week as PhosChem made a sale of 6,000 mt of DAP into Mexico at $520/mt FOB, which equaled $463/st FOB Central Florida. PhosChem was seeking a new price of $530/mt FOB for its next sale. The worldwide demand for phosphates has continued pushing prices up both for export and in the domestic markets.

TFI recently released its report on phosphate exports in October. No surprise, India was still the biggest DAP customer for U. S. DAP, taking 289,450 mt; Japan was second at 51,092, and Peru third with 14,275 mt. Total DAP exports for October amounted to 419,913 mt, a decrease of 29.7 percent for the same period in 2006. For the calendar-year-to-date, India was still tops at 1,533,392 mt, followed by Mexico at 312,086 mt; China dropped to third, with 291,695 mt. Total exports so far this calendar year were 3,738,953 mt, a decrease of 28 percent.

TFI said Canada was the top importer of MAP in October with 65,042 mt, with Brazil second at 56,068 mt. Total MAP exports for October amounted to 149,322 mt, an increase of 16.7 percent over the same period a year earlier. MAP exports for the calendar-year-to-date were 1,801,455 mt, a decrease of 4.4 percent over 2006. Canada has taken the most, 612,956 mt; Brazil was second at 317,400 mt, and Argentina third with 216,315 mt.

The export DAP price range last week from $490-$511/mt FOB to $511-$520/mt FOB.

POTASH

Plymouth, Minn.: The Mosaic Co. is raising its potash prices in North America $50/st for limited shipments in January and February. This is on top of a $30/st increase in December.

Eastern Cornbelt: Another spot increase was reported for potash in the region last week, though open market inventories were few and far between. Sources quoted the market at $347-$360/st FOB for brokered tons, depending on grade and location, with some sources quoting dealer reference levels as high as $385/st FOB the warehouse for white granular potash.

Western Cornbelt: Sources said brokered potash tons, if you could find any on the spot market, were being quoted as high as $375-$385/st FOB regional warehouses as the week advanced. Some sources reported cash sales for as low as $350-$355/st FOB early in the week, but for very limited tonnage.

Effective Dec. 1, potash postings from Intrepid Potash FOB Carlsbad, N.M., will move to $317/st for 60 percent granular and 62 percent standard, $320/st for 62 percent fine standard, and $325/st for 62 percent granular. The company’s postings FOB Moab, Utah, will firm on that date to $311/st for 60 percent standard and $317/st for 60 percent granular, while pricing FOB Wendover, Utah, will move to $325/st for 60 percent standard and $331/st for 60 percent granular. Those levels represent a $50/st increase from the company’s Nov. 5 reference levels.

Intrepid’s 60 percent red granular potash posting FOB McComb, Miss., will also firm on Dec. 1 to $362/st.

Northern Plains: Potash, where available, was quoted by several Minnesota sources at a firm $375/st FOB the warehouse for brokered tons. No spot pricing was reportedly available from producers due to sold-out inventories and strict allocations.

The mine price for potash was difficult to call for those very reasons. December prices FOB Saskatchewan include standard at $252/st, granular at $257/st, and soluble and white granular at $262/st, but tons reportedly won’t be available for sale until after the first of the year, at which time another $50/st will be in effect. PCS Sales on Nov. 7 announced that $50/st increase on all potash grades, effective for shipments between Jan. 1 and Feb. 29. This is on top of the company’s $30/st increase effective Dec. 1.

Great Lakes: Potash pricing in the Great Lakes region had skyrocketed from last report, and availability was very limited. Sources quoted the regional warehouse market at $350-$360/st FOB for brokered tons last week, if available, with one Wisconsin source reporting an offer for spot tons at midweek at the $400/st DEL level.

Northeast: Although one source reported booking some potash earlier at the $277/st DEL mark for December shipment, others cited sold out inventories and were looking ahead to the next round of price hikes for any available tonnage going forward. Based on those numbers, the market was said to be moving to a $344-$347/st DEL range, while brokered material was reportedly available on the spot market last week at a firm $347-$352/st FOB E. Liverpool.

California: Warehouse potash postings from Intrepid Potash will firm on Dec. to $372/st FOB Bakersfield, Calif., for 62 percent white standard; $360/st FOB Chico, Calif., for 60 percent white standard; and $366/st FOB Chico for 60 percent white granular.

SULFUR

Tampa: World sulfur prices continued to be extremely high and extremely strong last week, and the Tampa price will probably see another sharp increase for the first quarter of next year. However, by the end of the year, sulfur supplies will begin to increase and prices should either become steady or fall. In the meantime, spot sulfur in other areas of the country continue to bring higher and higher prices and shortages grow.

Spot buyers were said to be willing to pay virtually any price, as long as delivery can be assured – which in most cases it cannot.

Valero’s Port Arthur refinery was beginning to get close to normal production last week after an explosion and fire damaged the plant the previous week. The normal sulfur output from Port Arthur is about 1,000 lt/day and that has been curtailed, but was increasing as units come back on line.

A rumor circulating last week that the large sulfur vessel used by PotashCorp to transport sulfur from Venezuela was in dry dock for the next one to three months was incorrect.

West Coast: Valero has completed the turnaround at its refinery near Stockton, Calif., and was in the process of a turnaround at its other refinery near Long Beach, Calif., late last week.