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PotashCorp puts new potash sales on hold; problems in Russia cited

PotashCorp President and CEO Bill Doyle told analysts Oct. 25 that the company is putting new potash sales on hold until the dust clears from new developments occurring in Russia. Doyle noted reports out of an IFIA meeting in Vancouver earlier in the week that a growing crater in Berezneki, in Russia’s Perm Region, is threatening a rail line that ships out potash from major Russian producers.

On Friday, Oct. 26, JSC International Potash Co. issued a press release. It said that on Oct. 24 the sinkhole, caused by flooding of the Berezniki I mine at JSC Uralkali, grew by 30 meters towards the rail line used for potash shipments by JSC Silvinit. The crack is about 100 meters away from the 800-meter bypass railroad line. The company is monitoring the developments in the area on a constant basis. It hopes the growth of subsidence will slow down in winter conditions and the negative consequences will be mitigated by the launch of a new 6-kilometer long bypass. Construction of the rail line is scheduled to be completed in February 2008. In view of this situation, JSC IPC said it may suspend potash shipments in case of force-majeure. Still, the company hopes that the rail deliveries will continue uninterrupted until the construction of the new bypass.

Silvinit, which represents approximately 10 percent of the global supply picture, reported that it produced 5.3 million mt of potash in 2006.

Doyle said construction of the new rail bypass could be delayed due to wintertime conditions in the region, and that a three-month delay in getting this rail link in order could significantly change the potash world. Doyle added that it would be “hold on to your hat,” as it would have a major impact on pricing. He told analysts that it was his understanding that officials with Indian Potash Ltd. have offered their employees to aid in constructing the new rail line.

The Silvinit woes go back to the 2006 flooding of the JSC Uralkali No. 1 mine (GM Oct. 30, Nov. 6, 2006). That particular mine and its 1.2 million mt/y of production was lost to the flood. The flooded mine was near the rail line, and this already required one bypass to be built.

Doyle said that in North America, allocated tons will go to existing customers. However, he said no new sales will be made in North America or from New Brunswick. He also expects Canpotex, the Saskatchewan producer export group of which PotashCorp is a major participant, to consider a similar action.

Green Markets surveyed other U.S. producers to see if they are taking similar actions. Agrium Inc. said supplies are so low that is there is not that much to sell anyway. “The potash market is very tight right now and Agrium (and other potash producers) have very limited potash available for sale on a priced basis right now beyond what is already committed,” said Agrium’s Richard Downey.

The Mosaic Co. spokesman Doug Hoadley agreed, saying his company had not been selling product in the past two weeks as it is sold out. Instead, the company has been gearing up for a December fill program in which prices will be up $30/st.

Intrepid Potash has been allocating product since Oct. 1 and will not be taking any new rail orders before January.

Decision for new Terra/Orica project could come soon; idled Donaldsonville plants could go to Peru

Terra Industries Inc. President and CEO Michael Bennett told analysts Oct. 25 that a decision in a natural gas bidding process in Peru could come in the next month. Terra representatives were in Peru this last week to participate in the bidding. Should Terra and its partner, Orica Ltd., win access to the gas, they could proceed with plans for an approximately $1 billion nitrogen plant at the southern port of Pisco. Earlier, Bennett was in Peru to express Terra’s strong interest in such a project should the company be awarded the contract. Bennett said this gas reserve is the only one available at this time.

Bennett expects the plant would produce 1,800 st/d of anhydrous ammonia and would likely include upgraded products. Orica would want the ammonia for the production of industrial ammonium nitrate to serve its mining customers in South America. Terra expects the balance of the ammonia would be marketed in South America, Mexico, and the U.S. West Coast. In addition, Bennett said a local entity is interested in upgrading the product to urea.

Bennett said the Terra and Orica stakes in the new venture would both be significant; however, the percentages had not been firmed up. He also said it was possible that another partner could be added. Bennett noted that there was some interest by South Koreans in the project, though he said he had not met with them. Regional press reports have suggested that India’s Oswals Group might also be interested in a new nitrogen project in Peru (GM Sept. 3, 2007).

Bennett said equipment from Terra’s idled Donaldsonville, La., nitrogen plant could be moved to Peru to improve the construction timeline. Noting that the typical construction time for a new facility would be four years, he said the Donaldsonville equipment could cut that substantially.

As for the capital going into a $1 billion project, Bennett estimated some 70 percent would be financed and 30 percent equity infused. He estimated Terra’s share could be $75-$100 million.

FEIS for Simplot’s Smoky Canyon expansion puts heavy emphasis on selenium leaching

The U.S. Bureau of Land Management and the U.S. Forest Service have released the final environmental impact statement (FEIS) for J.R. Simplot Co.’s Smoky Canyon phosphate mine expansion. It puts heavy emphasis on prevention of selenium leaching, along with monitoring of fish habitat and population and stream contamination. Each agency will issue records of decision sometime after a 30-day FEIS availability period starting Oct. 27, but a go-ahead is anticipated after unprecedented federal, state, and public scrutiny of the project, which Simplot says is essential to continuing operations in southeast Idaho.

“A lot of effort has gone into this EIS to develop on-the-ground mining practices and methods that are state of the art,” stated Joe Kraayenbrink, BLM’s Idaho Falls district manager. “The alternatives are designed to keep surface and ground water well within acceptable state and federal water quality standards. In the future, we should expect that mining and reclamation practices are held to an extremely high standard, and Smoky Canyon will be a trendsetter. It’s no longer business as usual.” Noting that the Simplot expansion has been under the microscope for over four years, Caribou-Targhee National Forest Supervisor Larry Timchak remarked, “As decision makers, we need to balance the public concerns with the laws and regulations that govern our management to reach a decision that provides for future phosphate mining in an environmentally sound and legal manner. I believe we have done that.”

But environmental groups believe otherwise and are talking appeal. Idaho Greater Yellowstone Coalition Director Marv Hoyt was disappointed but not surprised by the announcement that the agencies are on the verge of permitting the expansion. “The Forest Service and BLM are much too willing to allow the phosphate mining industry in Idaho to poison lands, waters, and wildlife at the expense of the public interest. In the case of the Smoky Canyon Mine expansion, the agencies are clearly making decisions based on politics and big money interests rather than as responsible stewards of the public’s resources. If the record of decision authorizes expansion as described in the FEIS we will have no choice but to appeal that decision.”

Hoyt didn’t comment on the agencies making prevention of selenium and other pollution the chief concern of their environmental analysis, which would require Simplot to implement an engineered cover system to prevent rain and snow from percolating through selenium-laden waste rock and into groundwater sources. Simplot spokesman Rick Phillips explained, “The idea is to keep the water away from the selenium.” Phillips also emphasized that the FEIS is an essential step to enable Smoky Canyon to provide an uninterrupted supply of phosphate ore to its Don manufacturing facility at Pocatello.

Geologist Bill Stout, BLM environmental project manager for the EIS, told Green Markets that an engineered store and release cover system over all potentially seleniferous materials, including both the backfilled pits and external waste rock dumps, takes advantage of the area’s unique geological and hydrological conditions and will place “90 percent of the selenium material back into the pits as backfill.” Simplot would also implement a 30-acre test cover prior to installation of the operational system. He said mining will take place from the north end to the south to maximize the backfill of selenium waste rock behind the mine sequence, which he termed “very important to reduce the exposure of the selenium material (assuring that) every potential seleniferous deposit be covered with the store and release cover.” He noted that the cover would use local rock, clay, and topsoil. Moisture remaining in the cover would be evaporated by transpiration from vegetation planted during reclamation that is to take place as mining proceeds to reduce exposure time.

In addition to the engineered cover to prevent the leaching of selenium, the agencies would require Simplot to utilize other measures to reduce environmental impacts, such as employing topsoil salvage and conservation methods; creating vegetative islands of diversity to promote reestablishment of vegetation; using best management practices to control sediment and culverts designed to pass adult and juvenile fish at perennial stream crossings; conducting migratory bird surveys prior to vegetation removal; and restricting ground disturbance to migratory birds. Both the construction and performance of the engineered cover would be monitored. Surface and groundwater monitoring programs would be implemented to demonstrate the effectiveness of employed mitigation measures, provide early detection of possible impacts from the mine, and determine compliance with state and federal water quality standards. The fisheries monitoring program includes a three-tiered approach that would monitor fisheries habitat, fish populations, and possible contaminant levels in the fish and aquatic food base.

BLM officials pointed out that while the new Simplot mining activity will be unaffected for the most part by Forest Service roadless restrictions because of pre-dated leases, determination for a smaller lease modification section is being deferred because mining there is at least three years away and future legal action or ruling-making could change requirements in the meantime.

Terra posts 3Q earnings of $54.4 M

Terra Industries Inc. posted third-quarter earnings of $54.4 million ($.51 per diluted share) on sales of $593.7 million for the third quarter ending Sept. 30, compared to the year ago $10.3 million ($.10 per share) and $464.8 million, respectively. Income would have been even more, but the company recorded a $39 million impairment charge for its Beaumont, Texas, facility, which is being sold.

Revenues were up due to higher nitrogen selling prices. Ammonia, UAN, and ammonium nitrate prices improved 8, 61, and 11 percent, respectively, over the same period last year. Sales volumes also improved, with ammonia, UAN, and AN volumes up 2, 8, and 28 percent, respectively, over last year.

“We’re very pleased with Terra’s strong performance in a positive industry-wide environment in the third quarter,” said Terra President and CEO Michael Bennett. “We saw the expected seasonal declines in nitrogen selling prices, but continued strong demand reversed the trend and prices rose though the quarter.”

Nine-month net income was $132.2 million ($1.24 per share) on sales of $1.79 billion, versus the year-ago loss of $7.4 million ($.12 per share) and $1.39 billion.

Average North America natural gas prices were up for the quarter at $7.12/mmBtu versus the year-ago $6.20/mmBtu, but they were down year-to-date ?Çô $6.95/mmBtu versus $7.36/mmBtu.

“As we look ahead, we are encouraged by forecasts for strong corn and wheat plantings driven by high prices for these nitrogen-intensive crops. Clearly, with our fundamental drivers aligning favorably, we remain quite positive about our outlook for the rest of this year and the 2008 first half.”

3Q-07 3Q-06
Sales Vol. Avg Price Sales Vol. Avg. Price
Ammonia 477 $304 466 $281
UAN 1,113 208 1,031 129
Urea 24 298 32 236
AN 413 250 323 226
YTD-07 YTD-06
Sales Vol. Avg Price Sales Vol. Avg. Price
Ammonia 1,465 $328 1,417 $320
UAN 3,497 191 2,799 143
Urea 88 305 116 267
AN 1,164 244 879 226

* Sales volumes in thousand short tons.

PotashCorp reports record 3Q earnings

Potash Corp. of Saskatchewan Inc. reported its best ever third quarter earnings last week. Earnings were $243.1 million ($.75 per diluted share) on sales of $1.295 billion, versus the year-ago $145.2 million ($.46 per share) and $953.5 million. PotashCorp said they were the second highest quarter in history and would have exceeded the best quarter – second quarter 2007 – if not for the net negative impacts of a stronger Canadian dollar and an increase in the company’s consolidated tax rate.

Potash gross margin rose to $221.3 million from the year-ago $153.6 million and was the second highest quarterly total in company history. The improvement was mainly due to higher prices, but volumes were up slightly. Higher freight rates have been a problem, but the demand is so high that product was on allocation to all customers. PotashCorp expects still higher prices once the Chinese come back to the bargaining table, noting that new prices to Brazil to take effect Dec. 1 will be $355/mt, up $175/mt in 2007.

PotashCorp reported its best year for phosphates, spurred on by higher prices and strong demand. Third-quarter gross margins were $129.9 million, up from the year-ago $29.8 million. While prices and demand continue to be up, costs are as well, with phosphate rock and sulfur prices higher in particular. Sulfur prices were up 8 percent in the third quarter from the year-ago quarter, and product is expected to be tight through 2008.

Third-quarter nitrogen gross margins of $123.9 million were almost double the $62.4 million in the year-ago quarter. Realized prices for ammonia and urea were up 11 and 37 percent, respectively, compared to the year-ago period, while prices for UAN jumped 51 percent. Strong demand limited the size and duration of a seasonal pricing decline in the third quarter.

Nine-month net income was $726.8 million ($2.25 per share) on sales of $3.8 billion, versus the year-ago $445.8 million ($1.40 per share) and $2.74 billion, respectively.

PotashCorp said demand driven growth in the fertilizer industry is expected to continue, as strong economies in Asia and Latin America are creating greater demand for better food. And despite a slight pause in the biofuel industry to address logistical and infrastructure issues, PotashCorp said the biofuel production is expected to consume about 1 billion additional bushels of corn in 2008.

“While we faced a number of challenges in the third quarter, including record ocean freights and a stronger Canadian dollar, we see increasing margins as we go forward,” said Bill Doyle, PotashCorp president and CEO. “Our growth in potash this year will be largely volume related, but 2008 should be a strong margin year. With potash in tight supply, price increases seem all but certain, and these increases will now flow through to the bottom line.”

Potash Nitrogen Phosphate Consolidated
3Q-07 Sales 427.4 436.0 431.6 1,295.0
Gross Margin 221.3 123.9 129.9 475.1
3Q-06 Sales 334.3 292.6 326.6 953.5
Gross Margin 153.6 62.4 29.8 245.8
YTD-07 Sales 1,318.1 1,336.8 1,147.9 3,802.8
Gross Margin 655.9 399.4 290.9 1,346.2
YTD-06 Sales 856.5 966.9 920.4 2,743.8
Gross Margin 377.2 233.5 92.0 702.7

Green Markets audio conference explores key security issues facing fertilizer industry

Registrants to Green Markets‘ Oct. 23 audio conference heard up-to-date analysis of the many security issues currently facing the fertilizer industry. Speakers for the 90-minute interactive event, entitled Chemical Security and the Fertilizer Industry, included MaryBeth Kelliher of the Department of Homeland Security, Jim Schellhorn of Terra Industries Inc., and Richard Gupton of the Agricultural Retailers Association.

Kelliher kicked off the event with an in-depth look at the new Chemical Facility Anti-Terrorism Standards (CFATS), which were published in April and went into effect June 8, 2007. As chief of DHS’s Policy and Programs Branch, Kelliher described in detail the department’s Chemical Security Assessment Tool, calling it the “backbone of the CFATS program.” The fertilizer and chemical industries are still waiting for the release of the final Appendix A list of chemicals and screening threshold quantities, which Kelliher reviewed and said will be published this fall.

Schellhorn, director of Environmental Health, Safety and Security for Terra Industries, talked about Terra’s facility security program and how the company has responded to the Maritime Transportation Security Act and Homeland Security’s CFATS program. He also gave an up-to-the-minute overview of federal efforts to regulate ammonium nitrate sales, and talked about the increased costs related to the rail transportation of toxic-by-inhalation (TIH) commodities such as anhydrous ammonia.

ARA’s Gupton capped the conference with a discussion of the industry’s continuing efforts to influence the final CFATS regulations. As vice president of Legislative Policy & Counsel for ARA, Gupton talked about other areas of concern involving chemical security legislation and provided listeners with specifics about conducting a Security Vulnerability Assessment (SVA). He observed as well that as railroads continue to distance themselves from TIH commodities, the demand for truck transportation will grow. Gupton noted that it takes four trucks to replace one ammonia tank car.

Listeners were allowed to pose questions to the panel, either by email or by telephone, at the conclusion of the presentations. An audio recording of the conference is available on CD-ROM for $199, and can be ordered by visiting http://www.pf.com/eventDetail.asp?id=78&type=2. Recordings of past Green Markets audio conferences can also be ordered at http://www.pf.com/events.asp.

Mosaic announces temporary shutdown of K2 mine

Plymouth, Minn.-The Mosaic Co. said Oct. 22 that the hoist at its Esterhazy, Saskatchewan, K2 potash mine has experienced a bearing failure. The company expects production at K2 to be idle while repairs, which are expected to take approximately two weeks, are completed. This temporary shutdown may result in a loss of production of approximately 100,000 mt of potash; however, over the full year the company expects to offset some of any reduced production with other facilities once the K2 hoist bearing is repaired. The company’s guidance for potash sales remains unchanged at 8.5 to 9.0 million mt for fiscal 2008.

Yara 3Q net income up 16.6 percent

Oslo-Yara International reported net income after minority interest of US$259 million ($.89 per share) on sales of $2.2 billion for the third quarter ending Sept. 30, 2007, versus the year-ago $222 million ($.74 per share) and $1.88 billion, respectively. Operating income and EBITDA were both up, at $190 million and $329 million, respectively, versus the year-ago $183 million and $308 million. Total sales were 5.58 million mt for the quarter, up from the year-ago 5.35 million mt. “Our strong performance continued in the third quarter,” said Yara President and CEO Thorlief Enger. “Our industrial sales grew sharply, driven by environmental applications and nitrates to the mining industry. We benefited from improved fertilizer margins due to strong demand and increased production by 7 percent reflecting strong operational performance in all plants.” Yara noted improved conditions in urea as the quarter progressed, when it became evident that a strong increase in Chinese exports would not be sufficient to match market growth. While the ammonia market was initially weighed down by excess export supply, conditions improved through the quarter. Overall, fertilizer sales were up 2 percent over last year, reflecting growth primarily in Latin America and the United States. Deliveries to Europe were down 2 percent as Yara shifted nitrates to take advantage of better markets in the Americas. Nine-month net income was $671 million ($2.29 per share) on sales of $6.68 billion, versus the year-ago $516 million ($1.70 per share) and $5.6 billion, respectively. Operating income and EDITDA were $582 million and $986 million versus the year-ago $445 million and $802 million, respectively. Nine-month volume sales were 17.49 million mt, up from the year-ago 15.97 million mt. The USD figures were derived by using the average monthly USD/NOK exchange rate.

TNCLP 3Q income up 232 percent

Sioux City-Terra Nitrogen Co. LP reported a 232 percent increase in net income, to $45.6 million ($2.42 per limited partnership unit) on sales of $133.1 million for the third quarter ending Sept. 30, 2007, versus the year-ago $13.7 million ($.73 per unit) and $92.0 million, respectively. Ammonia sales volumes increased 16 percent, while UAN volumes were off 6 percent. Ammonia and UAN prices increased by 22 percent and 63 percent, respectively. Natural gas prices increased by 18 percent. Nine-month net income was $138 million ($7.31 per unit) on sales of $438.7 million, versus the year-ago $28.6 million ($1.52 per unit) and $306.6 million. Nine-month ammonia and UAN sales volumes were up 32 and 12 percent, respectively. UAN prices increased by 35 percent, while ammonia was up only slightly. Gas costs decreased 9 percent. TNCLP announced a cash distribution for the quarter ending Sept. 30 of $2.10 per lp unit, payable Nov. 26, 2007, to holders of record as of Nov. 8.