AMMONIA

U.S. Gulf/Tampa: The markets remained quiet last week, what with Tampa being inked for all of May for $340/mt DEL. The extra time will give buyers more opportunity to whittle their pencils for June. In the meantime, sources were said to be in negotiations for forward ammonia barges out of NOLA, with expectations that any near-term sales would be at much lower prices due to the wet weather upriver.

Eastern Cornbelt: Ammonia pricing continued to slip just slightly, with sources quoting the market last week at $455-$465/st FOB regional terminals for cash market tons. There were reports of sales as low as $445/st FOB in Illinois last week, but business at that level was not confirmed. One Indiana dealer reported heavy preplant movement for an eight-day run starting on April 17, but ammonia applications there were winding down last week as growers switched to dries.

Western Cornbelt: While many areas saw a return to field activities last week, dealers were commenting on the effect the frequent wet weather delays this spring will have on spring fertilizer volumes. “Typically a delayed spring doesn’t help business, that’s for sure,” said an Iowa source. “Most growers will stick with intended plantings through the month of May,” said a Missouri contact, “but these weather delays will definitely result in volume cuts for fertilizer.”

The late-April downtime allowed terminal inventories to be recharged for many products. Ammonia demand had tapered off in the region by last week, but sources continued to report movement, along with some pressure on pricing. Although dealer reference prices remained as high as $470-$475/st FOB in the region, Iowa sources reported spot sales at the $445/st FOB level, with the low end of the range quoted at $420-$425/st FOB in Nebraska.

California: The ammonia market was unchanged at $475/st truck-DEL in California, with movement described as strong in April. Due to short UAN supplies, sources said some growers were switching to ammonia or aqua ammonia in the state, raising expectations for brisk demand in May as well.

Pacific Northwest: Delivered ammonia was tagged at $450-$470/st in the region, with the low for railed product and the higher numbers quoted for truck-DEL material. Delivered ammonia in Montana was pegged in the $440-$460/st range from Alberta production sites.

Western Canada: Anhydrous ammonia remained at $809-$844/mt DEL in the region.

Black Sea: Last week was quiet around the globe. It helped that International Labor Day – May 1 – occurred early in the week. Some players in the market, especially in Asia, ended up taking more than just that one day off. With U.S. demand down, sources in Asia say the Yuzhnyy price is holding even at best. Asian sources peg the price at $250-$260/mt FOB.

Middle East: The main buyer of Middle East ammonia is taking just what it needs and no more. Sources say Indian buyers are holding off nailing down large-scale purchases until the phos acid talks are completed. Once that happens, say observers, Indian buying will pick up and the price should rebound. Industry observers expect to see a conclusion of the acid talks either just before or at the IFA meeting in Turkey later this month. For now, sources put the Middle East market at $290-$300/mt FOB.

UREA

U.S. Gulf: Many players last week called the market quiet ?Çô or maybe in the case of sellers that was wishful thinking, as some were holding firm to the $350/st FOB mark, hoping they could keep prices up for rice season. Come mid-May that Cornbelt farmer wants urea in place, not on a NOLA barge, and some last week said it was time for the market to reflect the lateness of the season. As a result, some sellers started letting granular barges loose, and they were reported to be trading within the $342-$348/st FOB range.

Later in the week, there was one claim of $325/st FOB being done for a granular barge. Such a large drop had some sources suggesting it was more likely a forward cargo than prompt. Still, most agreed the market is headed in that direction. It is a good bet that buyers will be pounding away for it next week. Green Markets was awaiting further confirmation at press time.

Eastern Cornbelt: Granular urea was steady at $390-$400/st FOB regional terminals. Although sources noted the weakening barge market at the Gulf, several said the terminal price had yet to react at upriver points.

Western Cornbelt: Granular urea was pegged in a broad range at $385-$400/st FOB in the region last week. Dealer pricing out of spot Missouri River locations was pegged at the $395/st FOB level, but sources said a drop to $390/st FOB was likely by the end of the week. Sources reported another pricing adjustment out of the Enid/Catoosa/Inola, Okla., market, with urea now reportedly posted $15/st lower at $365-$375/st FOB in Oklahoma.

California: Urea was in tight supply in the state. The market was quoted at $400-$410/st FOB and $420-$425/st DEL, with several shipping points out of product in early May.

Pacific Northwest: Delivered urea was pegged at $410/st on the low end in western Montana, and $420-$430/st in the rest of the region. One source also quoted urea at the $410/st FOB mark in the region last week.

Western Canada: Granular urea pricing was steady at $550-$575/mt DEL in Western Canada.

India: The industry was abuzz with reports that MMTC would be issuing a tender soon. Reports are mixed, but the bottom line is that the tender will be issued either Friday, May 4, or – at the latest – Tuesday, May 8. Sources say the government gave the buying agent permission to go ahead with a tender. It further authorized purchases up to 1.2 million mt for June-July shipment.

Reportedly, the MMTC agents spent most of last week talking to producers in the CIS and Arab Gulf, looking for a consensus on pricing. Observers note that while MMTC is prohibited from securing pre-tender deals, there is nothing to prevent them from getting a sense of what the offers would look like when a tender is issued.

The decision to let MMTC go ahead with its own tender came on the heels of IPL adding extra cargoes to its tender purchases.

Swiss-Singapore reportedly had its award increased from 25,000 mt to 50,000 mt, and Qafco/Qatar sold a cargo at $310/mt FOB.

All told, say sources, IPL is taking in 780,000 mt.

The IPL deals avoided any panamax vessels, thus shutting out the Black Sea/Yuzhnyy suppliers. The main reason for not buying these large cargoes had more to do with discharging issues in Mundra – the only port that can handle panamax vessels – than anything else.

Because IPL took so many tons from Middle East and Chinese sources, observers say MMTC will have no choice but to go to the CIS for its tons.

Last year as ships swayed at anchor waiting to be unloaded, the demurrage costs racked up. Sources say MMTC – and, by extension, the government – ended up paying the additional expenses. Sources say talks have taken place to avoid a similar situation, but few are holding out hope that the vessels will be unloaded in a timely manner.

Industry observers expect to see MMTC settle with the Middle East producers and traders offering smaller vessels before biting the bullet and taking panamax cargoes. The smaller vessels have greater flexibility in where they can discharge, and thus avoid port congestion.

Reportedly, MMTC is looking to get material at prices that match the IPL tender. Sources say, however, it is more likely that MMTC will pay anywhere from $10-$20/mt more.

One Asian trader noted that the Qafco/Qatar price IPL paid for their extra tons was already several dollars higher than the tender price. He added that the Yuzhnyy price never came off as much as was expected, so product from Yuzhnyy will most likely be offered at higher levels than previously anticipated.

All told, sources say MMTC will not get as good a deal as IPL. However, they added, MMTC will probably still get better prices than any other buyer.

Middle East: Capping off the IPL/India tender led Qafco to sell a cargo at $310/mt FOB. Sources say the best MMTC/India can hope for is that pricing for its tender will be at that level. One trader added that $310/mt FOB might be the hoped-for price, but chances are $325-$330/mt FOB will be the initial offers.

Producers are said to be in good condition, with orders on hand from the IPL tender. The upcoming MMTC tender will make them comfortable for the rest of the semester.

Despite the potential of a $20/mt price increase, sources say MMTC will most likely settle with the Middle East producers first and then deal with the traders holding CIS and Chinese tons.

Sources report the $310/mt FOB IPL paid to Qafco quickly became the new floor on prices.

Others, however, say they were getting offers below $300/mt FOB as long as the cargoes did not end up in India.

The reason the producers seem to be willing to make deals below the IPL numbers, said one Asian trader, is because inventories remain high.

Still, said one trader, even though there is talk of lower prices, no business has been concluded under $300/mt FOB.

Prills and granular are said to be still at parity. Prices are still pegged at $300-$315/mt FOB based on the IPL business and private talks.

Prices are expected to shift dramatically, however, once the MMTC tender comes out. Sources are convinced the floor will move to $325/mt FOB by the end of this week, and talk at the IFA conference was that even $330/mt FOB was possible.

Iran is claiming it is on track to becoming the largest urea producer in the area.

Local media reports quote Mohammad-Hassan Keshvari, Ghadir Petrochemical Company managing director, as saying the plants that are coming online in the next couple of years will increase the output of ammonia and urea to levels that will dwarf other producers.

Just how much of a player Iranian plants will be on a global scale remains to be seen. Traders say international politics play an important part in how willing some buyers will be to accept the Iranian product. With threats of economic sanctions hovering around all multilateral talks, sources say buyers are hesitant to depend too heavily on Iran’s urea production.

Buyers tired of being held to the market whims of area producers are entering into joint venture deals throughout the area. The latest deal was announced by Agrium last week (see page 1).

Black Sea: Producers are holding their collective breath in anticipation of the MMTC tender. After being aced out in the IPL tender and watching buyers in the Americas sit on their hands, sources say there is no market for Black Sea urea.

Conventional wisdom says MMTC will have to go to Yuzhnyy to cover its needs, which could be as high as 1.2 million mt. Sources report prices have edged upward. Following the IPL tender and the lack of any meaningful CIS deals, the price dropped to $285/mt FOB. As of late last week sources say the price has settled around $290/mt FOB, but only in talks. Reportedly, one deal at $303/mt FOB was done for top-off tons. Sources are quick to point out that the price is not reflective of the current market.

Sources add that the long positions out of Yuzhnyy are not as great as earlier, when the IPL tender was still a rumor.

Once the MMTC tender is called, sources expect to see the price out of Yuzhnyy jump about $20/mt.

Still to come in are major buyers in South and Central America.

Sources say buyers were hoping that the combination of CIS producers losing the IPL business to the Middle East and China and buyers in the Americas sitting on the sidelines could force down prices.

The price did drop from the $330s/mt FOB to $285/mt FOB, but in the past couple of weeks it has not gone any further. One trader said $285/mt FOB now represents the nadir of the market.

Once MMTC and the Latin American buyers come in, the Yuzhnyy orders will be sufficiently strong to support higher prices.

Bangladesh: BCIC called and closed a tender last week. The company called for 50,000 mt each of prilled and granular urea for May-June delivery.

Seven companies offered in the granular tender. Their offers follow.

The prilled offers follow:

Just how many of these tons will actually be taken is still up in the air. BCIC has yet to award contracts from its earlier tenders. Many traders have complained about the tendency of BCIC to accept the lowest offer even if the price is way off the current market trends. Then, after the winner cannot perform, BCIC holds another tender and repeats the process.

Asian sources note that in the past 12 months BCIC has tendered for close to 1 million mt, but has issued awards for about 50,000 mt.

There is a consensus that Bangladesh needs urea. The government is taking steps to deal with sales of adulterated or fake urea, as well as fertilizer hoarding.

Indonesia: Sources report Pusri is still waiting for someone to book a vessel and take some urea off its hands. It seems getting vessels with a shallow draft to handle Pusri’s river port is not easy.

At the same time, PIM is said to be ready to issue another sales tender for 20-25,000 mt. Sources report the tender will be announced soon after MMTC/India announces its buying tender.

Industry observers note that the Indians have talked to Indonesian and Malaysian producers as part of their efforts to secure gentlemen’s agreements on pricing and supply before calling a tender. At a minimum, said one source, the Indians were at least kicking a few tires in Indonesia to see what was possible.

China: The next application season is approaching, and producers are less inclined to cut a deal for export. Even with the 30 percent export duty in place, April material was competitive in the global market. If prices move up as expected because of the MMTC/India tender, sources say Chinese tons will still be competitive.

The problem of moving more urea out of the country has not been the price, said traders. The issue is getting transportation. The Chinese government is emphasizing steel and grain imports and exports. This emphasis is making it difficult for urea exporters or their agents to secure the necessary ships to cover offshore deals.

The price for material has moved up as domestic and international demand strengthens.

NITROGEN SOLUTIONS

Eastern Cornbelt: UAN remained in tight supply in the region, but several sources said the rain delays had allowed terminals to recharge inventories. An Illinois source said he still had quite a bit of prepay UAN-32 to work through, but quoted the cash market last week at $285-$290/st ($8.91-$9.06/unit) FOB spot river terminals on the low end. In Indiana, the terminal market to dealers was pegged at $9.15-$9.22/unit FOB last week. One source said sidedress demand had already kicked in last week in parts of his trade area.

Western Cornbelt: UAN-32 was firm at $288-$300/st ($9.00-$9.38/unit) FOB in the region, with the upper end reflecting dealer reference pricing out of Missouri River terminals. Inventories remained snug, with one Iowa source quoting the common dealer price last week at the $9.20/unit FOB mark on the upper Mississippi River.

California: Although inbound vessels were reportedly due the second week of May, some shipping points were out of UAN last week, prompting one source to describe California solutions inventories as “on the deck.” The market was quoted at a firm $305-$310/st ($9.53-$9.69/unit) FOB, with delivered pricing pegged at roughly $325-$335/st ($10.16-$10.47/unit) based on postings less discounts.

Pacific Northwest: UAN-32 was quoted at $305-$325/st ($9.53-$10.16/unit) DEL in the region, with the upper end reported by Idaho sources as the common dealer reference in early May.

Western Canada: UAN-28 was quoted at $341-$356/mt ($12.18-$12.71/unit) DEL in the region.

AMMONIUM NITRATE

Western Cornbelt: Ammonium nitrate was tagged at $325/st FOB in Iowa, with delivered nitrate pegged at the $335/st mark in Nebraska from Oklahoma shipping points.

California: No market for ammonium nitrate was reported in the state. CAN-17 was in very tight supply, however, with the market quoted in a broad range at $220-$240/st FOB. The low was reported at Stockton, Calif.

Pacific Northwest: Ammonium nitrate remained at $327-$335/st DEL in the region. CAN-17 was unchanged at $220-$222/st DEL.

India: MMTC closed a tender May 4 for 20-25,000 mt of AN. The tender documents call for open sourcing of the product.

AMMONIUM SULFATE

Eastern Cornbelt: Ammonium sulfate remained in very tight supply, with the market quoted at $230-$240/st FOB, if and where available. One supplier was reported to have mid-grade sulfate available on the open market last week, but availability was limited and several sources talked of the supply shortfall prompting another pricing change in late May or early June.

Western Cornbelt: Ammonium sulfate was in extremely tight supply in the region, but sources said some producers were starting to take new orders last week. Other dealers said they were out of product and had no plans to restock for this season. The market was quoted at $230-$240/st FOB, where available, with one supplier speculating that the dealer price will move to $250/st FOB for new sales. A Nebraska source quoted delivered granular sulfate at the $260/st mark from Caruthersville, Mo.

California: Granular ammonium sulfate pricing covered a wide range at $210-$230/st FOB, with the low FOB Lathrop, Calif., and the high in desert areas of the state. Other reference prices included $217/st FOB Helm, Calif. One supplier was planning to move its reference price to $225/st FOB effective May 7.

Pacific Northwest: Ammonium sulfate pricing was quoted at $205-$225/st DEL in the region, with the low reported in Montana and the high in Washington and Idaho before discounts. Product remained in very tight supply in the region.

Western Canada: Granular ammonium sulfate was up slightly from last report at $350-$355/mt DEL. Sources reported tight supplies and shipping delays, which were exacerbated by the April 23 derailment of a Canadian Pacific train carrying ammonium sulfate near Trail, B.C. (GM April 30, p. 13). The train was on its way to a smelting and refining complex operated by Teck Cominco Ltd.

PHOSPHATES

Central Florida: The weather was a mixed bag last week. Conditions in the Mid-Atlantic and some other areas of the Northeast and the Southeast improved; drying conditions helped warehouse sales. However, in the southern areas of the Midwest, heavy rain kept the ground too wet for field work, and sales suffered. Conditions in Iowa and Nebraska improved, and more activity was underway. As a result of the long delay in planting in the Northeast, farmers may not be using as much phosphate as they would have under normal conditions, and sales will be lost. At the same time last year, corn was already in the ground, but planting had not begun as of last week in the region.

Prompt sales, with the exception of trucks, were at a virtual standstill in Central Florida last week due to low inventories. Mosaic’s summer fill program was still making sales, but the numbers were much below the previous few weeks, which got a lot of attention and activity. Two weeks ago, Mosaic increased the Central Florida summer fill price to $365/st FOB from $360/st FOB. As an indication of the market, most of those who signed up for the fill program chose the option of the listed price, rather than the price at the time of loading.

With no new, prompt rail sales last week, the Central Florida index price range last week remained unchanged at $380-$390/st FOB. PotashCorp’s Central Florida reference price was also unchanged at $380/st FOB. Agrifos’ truck price in Texas was $430/st FOB. Prices were expected to remain stable in Central Florida this week.

U.S. Gulf: The weather in the northern areas of the Cornbelt improved but heavy rains hit the southern section, which slowed activity there last week. Warehouse activity at terminals was steady in most areas and prices were stable, but prompt barge deals for DAP and MAP were dead in the water on the river system.

Several sources said phosphate barges on the river were drying up, after many were sold at significant profits or placed into warehouse systems. Many buyers were now looking at the summer fill program offered by Mosaic and the future pricing offered by CF, and had already signed up. Most of Mosaic’s fill customers chose to take the listed price of $385/st FOB, rather than take a chance the price will be higher at the time of loading. CF’s future price for June through August was $390/st FOB.

With a lack of activity, the NOLA DAP barge price range remained unchanged at $398-$403/st FOB last week.

Eastern Cornbelt: DAP and MAP continued to be quoted at $425-$440/st FOB, with the low out of river warehouses in Illinois and the high out of inland locations in Ohio. One source reported booking some summer fill phosphate tons in April at the $415/st DEL level, but said he was approaching his fall commitments conservatively at this time.

10-34-0 remained very short. The market was firm at $330-$350/st FOB, with the low quoted by an Indiana source last week. Availability remained the question, however.

Western Cornbelt: DAP and MAP were unchanged at $425-$435/st FOB regional warehouses, depending on location. The river terminal market in Iowa and Missouri was generally quoted at the $430/st FOB mark last week, with delivered tons in Nebraska pegged at $430/st for MAP and $440/st for DAP.

10-34-0 remained in very tight supply, with many suppliers reportedly no longer taking orders for straight product and keeping remaining tons to make starters. Iowa and Missouri sources quoted the dealer market at $350-$360/st FOB for the last done business, while Nebraska sources quoted $334-$340/st FOB on the low end.

California: DAP was steady at $422-$427/st FOB or DEL, with MAP at $420-$425/st FOB or DEL in the state. 10-34-0 was in tight supply, with pricing unchanged at $269-$275/st FOB and outages reported at some locations. 16-20-0 was moving briskly on rice; the market was quoted at $280-$295/st FOB or DEL, with the upper end reflecting Agrium’s April 2 reference price for rail-DEL product in California and Arizona.

Super-phosphoric acid remained at $5.70-$5.80/unit DEL, with the upper end reflecting reference levels and the low after discounts. Merchant grade acid was tagged at $5.70/unit DEL net. Effective June 1, phosphoric acid pricing from Simplot will move to $7.00/unit for SPA and MGA on a rail-DEL basis in California and Arizona, with nickel/unit increases slated for August and again in September. “The 2006/2007 fertilizer year is seeing tremendous price appreciation for dry phosphate products,” Simplot said. “Liquid phosphate pricing continues to be in line with our November 2006 price schedule posted prior to tightening supply/demand balances for phosphates.”

Pacific Northwest: MAP was quoted in a broad range at $405-$425/st DEL, with the low in Montana and the upper end in Washington. DAP was quoted at $415-$425/st FOB or DEL in the region. 16-20-0 remained at $280-$285/st DEL in the region. 10-34-0 was reported at $275-$285/st FOB and up to $305/st DEL in the region.

Phosphoric acid pricing remained firm at $5.70-$5.80/unit DEL for SPA and $5.70/unit DEL for MGA, but a significant increase was on the way. Effective June 1, phosphoric acid pricing from Simplot will move to $7.00/unit for SPA and MGA on a rail-DEL basis in Idaho, Montana, Nevada, Oregon, Utah, Washington, and Wyoming. A nickel/unit increase is slated for August and again in September.

Western Canada: MAP pricing remained firm at $615-$640/mt DEL in the region, with some reports of tight phosphate supplies.

U.S. Export: The export DAP market mirrored the NOLA and Central Florida markets last week, which meant it was quiet, very quiet, with no new sales. PhosChem’s next best bet for a decent book of business for the summer was India, which had not materialized as of last week. Transammonia has sold out of all the export supplies it was allotted from Miss Phos and was not active last week.

With no new sales last week, the export DAP price range remained at $433-$435/mt FOB. With ocean freight rates on the rise, FOB prices were expected to fall accordingly when new sales are made.

China: Beijing has banned the export of phosphate rock except tons already under contract, and is contemplating a 20 percent export duty on DAP. Sources report both moves are designed to strengthen the Chinese phosphate industries and ensure sufficient supplies to the domestic market. The government is also said to be increasing its border surveillance, which already watches for urea smugglers, to include keeping an eye out for “non-traditional” phosphate exports.

India: MMTC closed a 100,000 mt DAP tender late last week. The tender documents call for open origin. Sources say the tons are needed to help build reserves until the phos acid talks conclude and domestic producers can kick into high gear for the upcoming application season.

POTASH

Eastern Cornbelt: Potash was steady at $218-$225/st FOB regional warehouses, depending on grade and location. Several sources said they were still pulling tons ordered earlier, so new prices remained mostly untested.

Western Cornbelt: Potash was quoted at $215-$226/st FOB regional warehouses, depending on grade and location.

California: Potash remained at $244-$250/st FOB in the state, depending on grade, but dealers talked of an increase taking effect in June. Potassium nitrate pricing was quoted at $480/st FOB for bulk and $540/st FOB for bags.

Sulfate of potash (SOP) was up from last report at $358-$368/st FOB in the state, with one supplier talking of another $10/st increase in June. Potash Import & Chemical Corp. (PICC) advised customers on April 16 that effective with shipments on May 1, it will be raising sulfate of potash (SOP) prices by $10/st at all U.S. warehouses. PICC cited the continued escalation of costs and a tight global supply. Great Salt Lakes Minerals, a subsidiary of Compass Minerals (NYSE:CMP), also announced that it will increase prices on all SOP specialty fertilizer products by $20 per ton. The price increase, which will take effect with June 1 shipments, is being introduced to offset increased production and logistics costs.

Pacific Northwest: Reference prices for 60 percent red premium potash ranged from $242-$254/st FOB and $247-$259/st rail-DEL in the region, depending on location.

Western Canada: The potash market was unchanged at $260-$275/mt FOB plant sites or warehouses in the region.

SULFUR

Tampa: Weeks after the major phosphate producers began settling second quarter sulfur contracts at $5.50/lt up from the previous quarter, the last of the agreements was settled – at $5.50/lt FOB. Many in both industries were scratching their heads and wondering – huh? “I could understand them taking longer to settle if the price had been different, but this makes no sense,” one said, reflecting the general view.

Although players were better shielded than in the past, ExxonMobil was believed to be the primary holdout. Prices for railcars, which tend to be higher than ocean freight to Tampa, will follow suit.

The Wynnewood Refinery near Oklahoma City was shut down after lightning struck gasoline and diesel tanks and sparked a fire on April 27, and it was uncertain when refinery operations will resume. Also last week, Valero’s Houston refinery was in the process of improving its sulfur recovery and will be putting an estimated 150 lt/day into the market within the month. Previously, the refinery produced only about 20-30 lt/day.

Sulfur trains were moving into Florida at a higher rate last week, and the tight supply situation there was said to be improving. Last year the Gulf and Florida both escaped any serious threat from hurricanes, but this year’s forecast is for a more active season, and the impact on sulfur could be significant if that occurs.

Forecasts were that much more sulfur will be going to prillers this year, which will help sulfur producers balance the U.S. supply, as exports will increase. The sulfur shortage on the West Coast was said to be easing last week, but remained tight.

Vancouver: Sulfur contract prices were said to be on the increase in Vancouver last week, which would be a reflection of both previous shortages there and of the world market.