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The Week in Fertilizer Stocks

Company Symbol Price Week Ago Year Ago
Producer
Agrium AGU 41.15 40.64 25.25
CF Industries CF 43.51 43.26 17.36
Mosaic MOS 29.64 29.79 14.89
PotashCorp POT 182.69 177.16 91.95
Terra Industries TRA 18.75 18.69 7.67
Terra Nitrogen TNH 67.10 64.20 20.62
Distribution/Retail
Andersons Inc. ANDE 42.47 42.29 46.26
Lesco LSCO 14.60 14.42 17.10
Scotts SMG 45.64 44.69 45.85
UAP UAPH 24.96 25.45 20.80

CN rail workers strike again after rejecting contract; industry calls for federal intervention

Canadian National Railway’s 2,800 union conductors and yard workers voted overwhelmingly on April 10 to reject a tentative one-year contract with the railroad, and returned to the picket lines on Wednesday in what the union termed would be a “rolling strike” across the CN system.

A United Transportation Union spokesman said 79.4 percent of the 2,317 union members who cast ballots voted to reject the tentative agreement with CN, which was negotiated on Feb. 24 between UTU leaders and CN officials after a walkout that began on Feb. 10 (GM March 5, p. 1).

The agreement had specified a 3 percent wage increase and a $1,000 signing bonus, but an April 10 press release from UTU Vice President John Armstrong said the union members “want a better deal at CN ?Çô one that deals with dignity and so-called ‘relationship’ issues.” Picketers in Vancouver on Wednesday carried signs that read, “UTU on strike against CN for respect, dignity and safety.”

The union had originally asked for a 4.5 percent wage increase in the first two years of a three-year contract, with a 4 percent increase in the final year. The “relationship” issues at question, reportedly involving CN policies regarding lunch breaks, disciplinary actions, and employee surveillance, were cited by some insiders as a primary reason for the contract rejection.

The resumed walkout prompted a new round of statements from Canadian businesses, including the fertilizer industry, which were heavily impacted by the February strike action because of costly shipping delays.

“Ending the strike is critical to avoid crippling the movement of fertilizer throughout rural Canada as well as to export markets,” said the Canadian Fertilizer Institute in an April 11 statement. “The Canadian fertilizer industry faces an annual logistical challenge of moving 25 million tonnes of product. At this critical time, rail service disruptions may cause significant losses and layoffs throughout both the farming and farm supply industries.” Added CFI President Roger Larson, “The spring season will be quickly upon us, and the next four to six weeks will determine the success or failure of farmers’ crops this year.”

CN said it would try to keep systems up and running by using management to fill in for the striking workers, just as it did during the first walkout. The railroad cautioned, however, that “service levels may be affected by the frequency, location and severity of the UTU’s rotating work actions.”

Rhonda Speiss, public relations manager for Potash Corp. of Saskatchewan Inc., told Green Markets that the company was “in daily contact with CN to prioritize the movement of our products out of Saskatchewan.” She said CN “has advised that they’ll do their best during the strike,” but noted that it is “too early to tell what the impact will be on shipments. We’re certainly hopeful that the situation will be resolved quickly.”

“It’s definitely been a ‘two martini’ kind of day with the CN announcement,” another industry source told Green Markets on Wednesday. “Although they are saying it is a ‘rolling strike’, I remain dubious about the ability of CN management to effectively maintain service if it becomes a protracted situation. We have some proactive plans in place to move U.S. plants currently being sourced off the CN to other supply bases as may be necessary.”

UTU conductors and rail yard workers had been back to work at CN since the Feb. 24 agreement was reached, but the union had officially remained on strike pending approval of the contract. Labor Minister Jean-Pierre Blackburn had introduced back-to-work legislation in Ottawa on Feb. 23 that was a key factor in bringing the two sides together. On March 29, Blackburn promised federal intervention again if the strike were to resume, and reiterated that promise on April 11 while acknowledging that a “negotiated settlement is always preferable to legislation.” In its April 10 press release, UTU Vice President Bob Sharpe asked the Canadian government not to interfere while negotiations commenced between the union and CN.

CFI on April 11, however, urged the Canadian government to “act quickly to enact back-to-work legislation,” and that sentiment was echoed by other impacted industries. “We are calling for the government to move quickly to impose a dispute resolution process combined with immediate back-to-work legislation for CN railway workers,” said Richard Phillips, executive director of the Grain Growers of Canada. “Not only will a strike once again shake our customers’ confidence in our ability to supply grain at export position, but a shortage of fertilizer could cripple Canadian farmers at seeding time.”

“We do expect the government to not allow this to go on,” said Richard Downey of Agrium Inc. “It is going into the middle of the season, and this has the potential to significantly impact Canadian farmers in terms of crop inputs.” Downey told Green Markets that lawmakers were in recess last week in Ottawa, but have back-to-work legislation “ready to go” and will not tolerate “putting the Canadian farmer at that kind of risk.” Downey added that he expects the government to act quickly. “We anticipate there would be sufficient support within the Canadian government to do that,” he said.

In an April 12 statement, trade groups representing more than 20 producers and shippers of sulfur in Western Canada also called on “all federal parties to protect jobs, health and safety and the environment, by immediately passing legislation that will bring a speedy end to the current CN rail labour disruptions.”

UTU Spokesman Frank Wilner was quoted as saying the union was “prepared to return to [the] bargaining table to negotiate a better agreement acceptable to the membership, and until we gain such an agreement, we’ll continue with rotating strikes across the CN system.” Mark Hallman, CN’s director of communications, said the railroad is also willing to continue talks with the union.

Late on Wednesday, however, CN had reportedly locked out about 280 workers in five Canadian cities who had originally intended only to remain off the job for a few hours. UTU officials blamed CN for “effectively escalating the level of disruption” by that action, but CN officials said the lockouts were necessary to maintain the railroad’s operating schedules. “We have to have a predictable source of manpower resources,” a CN official was quoted as saying.

Mosaic earnings up in 3Q; phosphates lag expectations

The Mosaic Co. saw a big increase in earnings for the third quarter ending Feb. 28, 2007, to net earnings of $42.2 million ($.10 per diluted share) on sales of $1.28 billion, versus a year-ago loss of $71.6 million ($.19 per share) and $1.07 billion. Despite the current buoyant phosphate market, the company’s phosphate segment posted a third-quarter loss of $11.1 million on sales of $690.7 million. The year-ago loss was $19.7 million on sales of $699.3 million.

Mosaic President and CEO Jim Prokopanko said costs in the phosphate segment were unacceptably high and would be an area of great focus. Higher mining and concentrates production costs were the main culprits, as other phosphate costs, such as ammonia and sulfur were down. Mosaic cited a period of lower ore grade, dragline problems, and higher contract labor costs. It will be bringing up its Wingate mine in June to add about 1 million st of rock to the company’s current 15 million st.

Another phosphate problem was the lagging price. The average third-quarter DAP price was $246/mt, the same as the year-ago quarter. While recent phosphate prices have soared, Mosaic said that it normally sees a 6-12 week lag time. As an example, the recent quarter saw significant tonnage to China that had been booked and priced last fall.

Prokopanko said he expects significantly higher phosphate prices and margins in the fourth quarter and into fiscal 2008. “Shipments are strong for both phosphates and potash as the North American spring season is off to a good start and export demand remains strong.” He specifically cited Brazil and India as being good prospects for later this year, but indicated that China may be lost to the U.S. producer at current pricing levels. He projects phosphate sales volumes for fiscal 2007 to be between 9-9.3 million mt and potash at 7.7-8.1 million mt.

Wall Street initially reacted negatively to the Mosaic news, with some citing the phosphate figures; however, the general agriculture and fertilizer fundamentals – i.e., projections of 90.5 million acres of corn – eventually carried the day. Mosaic stock dropped 5.5 percent after the company released its earnings April 10, but easily recouped that loss and added some by end of business April 12.

Mosaic had good news to report about the inflow at the Esterhazy mine. The inflow had been reduced to 4,000 gallons per minute – almost to the level prior to the recent inflow – whereas the inflow is being pumped out at a rate of 7,000 gallons per minute. Still, Mosaic expects to incur significant additional costs associated with the inflow in the fourth quarter.

Potash earnings are what put Mosaic in the plus column for the quarter. They were up 316 percent during the quarter, to $67.0 million on sales of $342.7 million from the year-ago $16.1 million and $228.6 million, respectively.

$/M 3Q-07 3Q-06 YTD-07 YTD-06
Net Sales 1,278.7 1,073.2 4,089.3 3,974.3
Earnings (Loss) 42.2 (71.6) 217.1 59.5
Net Sales
Phosphates 690.7 699.3 2,244.2 2,291.7
Potash 342.7 228.6 984.9 827.6
Nitrogen 48.9 31.7 95.8 91.2
Offshore 242.9 186.1 1,046.7 1,002.1
Other (46.5) (72.5) (282.3) (238.3)
Operating Earnings
Phosphates (11.1) (19.7) 76.9 128.3
Potash 67.0 16.1 206.0 226.0
Nitrogen 4.2 1.2 7.0 6.5
Offshore (9.2) (17.2) (31.1) 22.8
Other (16.7) (24.8) (25.1) (42.8)
34.2 (44.4) 256.5 286.9
Sales Volumes (000 mt)
Phosphates 2,074 2,115 6,653 7,427
Potash 1,786 1,311 5,445 4,778
Average Price ($/mt)
DAP 246 246 246 244
Potash 141 134 138 140

Rail policies and rates changing for TIH shipments

In response to new supplemental security actions issued by the Transportation Security Administration regarding the rail transportation of Toxic Inhalation Hazard (TIH) commodities such as anhydrous ammonia, BNSF Railroad will dramatically increase its demurrage and private car storage policy for TIH shipments beginning May 1, according to an April 2 letter from Agrium Inc. to its customers.

Agrium said all U.S. Class 1 rail carriers will be implementing several measures in the coming weeks to comply with the TSA security regulations, which were approved in late 2006 (GM Feb. 5, p. 1). These include: 1) TIH cars will no longer be held in rail yards or other railroad-controlled trackage awaiting space in a receiver’s facility, and receivers will be required to accept TIH cars upon arrival; 2) outbound TIH cars will not be held in rail yards or other rail facilities awaiting billing, and shippers will be required to provide billing before TIH cars will be pulled; and 3) TIH customers will be required to have personnel physically present whenever TIH cars are spotted or pulled from customer facilities.

Agrium said railcars containing TIH commodities that are “constructively placed on BNSF tracks” will be subject to a $500/car charge for the first 24 hours or portion thereof, and a $1,000/car charge or portion thereof for each day thereafter until space is made available. Agrium said these charges will be assessed against the receiver of the product, and at this point apply only to BN (Class 1) trackage and do not include residue cars.

“Although we have yet to hear of similar action from other Class 1 carriers, we anticipate similar programs and charges to be announced in the near future,” Agrium said in the letter. “Although developments on this subject will continue to occur, at this time we wanted to make you aware of the impending policy changes and ensure that we work with you as effectively as possible to manage and control the timing and receipt of your anhydrous ammonia shipments with Agrium.”

AGrium advised that it “will not bear responsibility for demurrage charges on your shipments, nor will we assume responsibility for carrier actions that result in car bunching and subsequent capacity constraints at your facilities.”

High cost of fertilizer boosts manure use

Higher costs for commercial fertilizer are sending more growers looking for ways to save by switching to manure and poultry litter, according to a spot check by Green Markets.

It may not be the case in every state, but Ohio reports the alternatives have become so popular that now there’s more demand than supply. Kevin Elder, executive director of the Department of Agriculture’s livestock permitting program, advises GM, “Some large farms have contracted every pound they produce to green farmers.”

Elder adds that the drier the manure the higher value, with some dry poultry manure – which he calculates contains as much NPK and micronutrients as $75 in commercial fertilizer – going for as much as $15 per ton. Swine liquids don’t have a marketing value, but Elder believes they’re worth $40 to $45 per thousand gallons as a commercial fertilizer replacement. He says the state’s certified applicator program, which didn’t exist before 2002, has 50 registered and another 50 in the process of completing requirements – and he has 13 more applications on his desk that were received since the February training session.

Minnesota also has more than 300 licensed applicators in a program that requires renewal every three years, according to Joe Spitzmueller, supervisor of the Department of Agriculture’s licensing certification unit. He adds that the figure is increased by unlicensed applicators allowed to work under supervision of a license-holder.

In Iowa, Gene Tinker, animal feeding operations coordinator for the Department of Natural Resources, says manure-hauling businesses are flourishing in his state, with its many livestock operations. He explains that manure has become more attractive because it generally costs about $50 less an acre than commercial fertilizer, depending on what the farmer had been using. In 2005 there were 1,385 haulers in Iowa, and last year that number rose to 1,447. One of them, who has operated a hauling business for 28 years, reports his sales increased as much as 15 percent in the past year, mostly because of the higher demand and the growing number of large livestock farms.

But there doesn’t appear to be any significant movement away from commercial fertilizer in Illinois. “I don’t have any hard statistics,” offers Illinois Fertilizer and Chemical Association President Jean Payne, “but we have not sensed any major shifts to organic fertilizer, mostly because it does not typically meet the nitrogen target for many farmers.” Calls to retailers in Brimfield and Monroe also brought negative responses. One of them, Alan Knobloch at Akron Services, stated, “We don’t have enough livestock around us to even consider doing that.”

Tracking usage is difficult in some other states like Kansas, Missouri, and Wisconsin, which don’t regulate plain manure sales or applicators. The Kansas Department of Agriculture does, however, require a nutrient management plan from swine operations showing adequate acreage is available to apply the manure, which could even include the neighbors’ farms. Randy Walker, crop production manager at Oswego’s Bartlett Cooperative, reports some of his customers changing over to poultry litter being brought in from Oklahoma. “It’s affected our sales somewhat,” he adds, “but I’d say it’s been minimal at best.”

Joe Slater with the Fertilizer/Ag Lime Control Services at the University of Missouri comments, “I am not aware of any states that regulate unmanipulated (or raw) manure as a fertilizer, as it is exempted in fertilizer laws. There was a time when we were attempting to move in that direction, but that has not happened.”

Neither does Wisconsin have a handle on how much unregulated manure is being used for fertilizer. But Jim VandenBrook, water quality section chief with the Department of Agriculture, Trade and Consumer Services, is certain that it’s not a small amount. “Livestock and crop producers clearly understand the fertilizer value of manure and have a variety of private contracts and other arrangements for its utilization,” VandenBrook points out.

Manipulated manure (dried, ground, or pelletized manures supplemented with other nutrients) is a different matter because it’s regulated as fertilizer. The state licenses sellers, who must also pay annual fertilizer tonnage fees unless the manure is applied to land under a state-approved nutrient management plan. As of 2005 there were only four licensed companies in the state, but that may change when the 2006 numbers come out later this year. In addition, Wisconsin is requiring all farms to have nutrient management plans by next Jan. 1.

TFI tracks only dried manure in the Commercial Fertilizers Report, according to spokeswoman Harriet Wegmeyer, but the latest figures for 2004 and 2005 show only slight variation. Wegmeyer explained that TFI has always encouraged the use of a balanced nutrient management plan that includes the use of on-farm manure, cautioning that manure alone cannot meet the nutrient needs of soil to grow crops.

In the meantime, Oklahoma is getting legislation declaring that manure and other animal waste should not be considered hazardous material, while at the same time a similar effort is gaining momentum in the U.S. Congress. After resolving objections from Attorney General Drew Edmondson, the Oklahoma bill passed the State Senate, and a companion measure is on its way to being approved in the House. Edmondson had complained that the action would hinder his suit against Arkansas poultry companies claiming chicken litter polluted important waterways, but the bill’s sponsor and the Oklahoma Farm Bureau said Edmondson doesn’t have anything to worry about. Sen. Ron Justice declared that agriculture would face a tremendous problem and burden if manure were considered as hazardous. He said there is a real concern in the industry that animal waste could be lumped into a category with nuclear waste when “it is really a plant nutrient.”

“It should not have any effect on the litigation since it’s already been filed. But it may prevent future claims under state law,” Ericka McPherson, Farm Bureau director of national affairs, told Green Markets. McPherson said the Oklahoma language is different from that in the bills that have been re-introduced in Congress, but with the same objectives: to clarify that manure is not a hazardous waste and is beneficial in its use as fertilizer.

Sen. Saxby Chambliss, R-Ga., ranking Republican member of the Senate Agriculture Committee, joined Sens. Blanche Lincoln, D-Ark., and Pete Domenici, R-NM, in co-sponsoring S. 807, which would clarify that manure is not a hazardous substance, pollutant, or contaminant under the Comprehensive Environmental Response, Compensation and Liability Act, also known as Superfund, and the Environmental Planning and Community Right to Know Act (EPCRA). “It’s disturbing that some states and environmental groups are trying to apply federal toxic waste laws to normal, routine agricultural operations,” said Chambliss. “Manure is not a toxic waste, and Congress never intended for toxic waste laws to apply to its routine production and use. This bill would protect farmers and ranchers from these novel lawsuits.” He added that continued uncertainty over the status of normal animal waste would discourage investment in technologies that convert livestock waste into energy and fertilizer.

A long list of livestock and farm groups supports the legislation, including the American Farm Bureau Federation, the American Meat Institute, CoBank, Dairy Farmers of America, the Farm Credit Council, The Fertilizer Institute, the Horse Council, the National Assn. of State Departments of Agriculture, the National Cattlemen’s Beef Assn., the National Chicken Council, the National Council of Farmer Cooperatives, the National Farmers Union, the National Milk Producers Federation, the National Pork Producers Council, the National Turkey Federation, the National Corn Growers Assn., and state farm organizations.

Importance of NH3 stressed in new TFI policy paper

Washington, D.C.-The Fertilizer Institute on April 11 released its new rail transportation policy briefing paper, which has been developed as a tool for use in ongoing transportation policy discussions. The color brochure outlines TFI’s position on the rail transportation of anhydrous ammonia, emphasizing that most ammonia is transported by rail from the production site to a fertilizer terminal, fertilizer dealer, or farm cooperative for formulation into other fertilizers or for direct application in the field. TFI stressed that ammonia “is the most economical and efficient source of nitrogen for most farmers and is the primary ingredient in most all nitrogen fertilizers,” and is also an essential ingredient in many finished phosphate fertilizers. “TFI supports continued dialogue between shippers, carriers and federal agencies to promote the safe and secure transportation of ammonia,” said TFI President Ford B. West. “With this brochure in hand, we can continue to educate members of Congress about the importance of ammonia in agricultural production and the impact rail freight rates have on the American farmer.” TFI said it is making the briefing paper available to its members for use at state and regional meetings with legislatures, local councils, and others. Members can order complimentary co-branded brochures for use in their own lobbying and education efforts. TFI’s rail transportation policy briefing paper can be viewed at www.tfi.org.

INEOs to end Lima operating agreement with PCS

Lima, Ohio-INEOS Nitriles announced April 10 that it has served notice of termination of its operating agreement with PCS Nitrogen Ohio, LP, effective Dec. 31, 2007. As of Jan. 1, 2008, PCS will assume operating responsibility for its nitrogen facility at Lima. The facility is currently operated by INEOS under an operating agreement with PCS. INEOS inherited the operating agreement when it purchased the chemical division of BP in 2005 and has operated the PCS facility since Dec. 16, 2005. INEOs said the decision was made in order to focus on the growth and optimization of its core operations at Lima. The Lima facility has the capacity to produce 1.37 million tons of ammonia, urea, nitrogen solutions, and nitric acid annually, and produced a total of 765,000 tons last year. PCS says it intends to continue operating this facility as market conditions dictate and is committed to effecting this change in operating responsibilities with no disruption in production or service to its customers. INEOS and PCS continue to each own approximately half of the Lima Chemicals complex, with each company taking responsibility for its own operations. “We welcome the opportunity to assume operating responsibility at our Lima facility and are anticipating a smooth transition,” said Tom Regan, PCS Nitrogen president.

ArrMaz expands in China

Mulberry, Fla.-ArrMaz Custom Chemicals reports its most recent expansion into China with the formation of ArrMaz Chemicals (Yunnan) Co. Ltd., and the opening of a sales office in Kunming, China. This new base of operation will focus on providing enhanced local services to ArrMaz customers in the PRC. Construction is scheduled to begin in April on this newest ArrMaz production facility, in the heart of China’s DAP producing region of the Yunnan Province. ArrMaz says it is poised to provide its full line of products and services to nearby phosphate mining and fertilizer operations, and has hired Tony Wong to be the general manager of ArrMaz Chemicals Yunnan. He will oversee construction and operation of the new facility along with Dan Partin, who was recently appointed ArrMaz vice president of international development. ArrMaz Chemicals Yunnan is owned by ArrMaz and FAME Base Holdings, Ltd., which is owned by Mr. Zhenbang Yu. ArrMaz Custom Chemicals will now have eight facilities on four continents: North America (five U.S.-based locations), South America (Rio de Janeiro, Brazil), Europe (Paris, France), and Asia (Kunming, China). It counts sales in 70 countries.