AMMONIA

U.S. Gulf/Tampa: The major news last week was that at least some major players closed on first half Tampa business at the $320/mt DEL mark, up $10/mt from the last done. Sources commented that this was due mainly to higher prices in the Black Sea.

Ammonia imports are off 9 percent so far this fertilizer year (July-Sept.), according to the Department of Commerce. Imports stood at 1.95 million st for the period, versus the year-ago 2.14 million st.

Eastern Cornbelt: Brisk fall demand for ammonia, phosphates, and potash in the last weeks of November caused some spot shortages out of regional terminals, particularly for ammonia. Firming markets, coupled with talk of more corn acreage and higher corn prices in 2007, prompted one source to joke about being “gored by the nitrogen bulls” in late November.

Ammonia pricing was definitely on the rise, with spot pricing quoted at $375-$380/st FOB for prompt tons last week. Spring prepay was being offered in the $385-$390/st FOB range.

Western Cornbelt: Some dealers were off to the 2006 Agribusiness Association of Iowa Expo in Ames on Wednesday, Nov. 29. The North Dakota Agricultural Association’s 2006 Northern Ag Expo was also held Nov. 28-29 at the Fargodome in Fargo, N.D. One source commented that last week’s moisture will probably end the fall application season in the region, which had been brisk for ammonia, phosphates, and potash.

Nitrogen pricing continued to firm in the region, with reports of tight ammonia supplies after the heavy fall run. Several sources claimed fall ammonia applications were up 10-20 percent from last year, while acknowledging that 2005 volumes were down from normal due to the post-Katrina run up in prices.

The spot ammonia market last week was quoted at $355-$375/st FOB regional terminals, where available, with the low in Nebraska. The dealer market in Iowa was generally tagged in the $365-$375/st FOB range, while delivered ammonia in central Missouri was quoted in a broad range at $370-$400/st.

Spring prepay ammonia was said to be available in the $385-$390/st FOB range, but many were still catching their breath after the heavy fall run. Terra was accepting prepay orders through Dec. 15 at the $390/st mark FOB Blair, Neb., Greenwood, Neb., Mankato, Minn., Port Neal, Iowa, and Whiting, Iowa.

California: Ammonia pricing was unchanged at $395-$400/st truck-DEL in the region, with movement on cotton ground likely to taper off in the coming weeks.

Pacific Northwest: Delivered anhydrous ammonia remained at $335-$345/st in Montana, and roughly $345-$365/st in Washington and Idaho, with the upper end reflecting reference pricing. Sources reported very little ammonia movement.

Western Canada: As of Nov. 27, the regional anhydrous ammonia market was quoted at $497-$533/mt DEL, up from mid-November pricing in the $471-$506/mt DEL range. One regional supplier was slated to move up again on Nov. 30 to $560-$595/mt DEL in Western Canada.

Black Sea: Asian sources say $270/mt FOB was hit, with new offers starting at $275/mt FOB. The word is that Keytrade bought a cargo at the $270/mt FOB level, but Asian observers say they have not been able to confirm this report. If true, this sale marks a $20/mt jump in prices.

One observer noted that combined pressure from the United States and Europe is adding to the call for higher prices. At the same time, the Middle East suppliers are said to be fully booked and under pressure from Indian buyers. As a result, there is less competition among producers than buyers would like.

Delays of up to three days are now being reported through the Bosporus Straits. Sources say freight rates are edging up because
of the shipping restrictions through the waterway.

Middle East: Indian buyers continue to dominate the Middle East market. At the same time, routine maintenance shutdowns are taking production from the marketplace.

Also, producers are claiming they are sold out for the rest of the year and well into the first quarter of next year.

Spot prices last week were pegged in the mid-$270s/mt FOB, with producers reportedly now asking $300/mt FOB. While some Asian sources say $270/mt FOB was done, no one could point to a firm sale at $300/mt FOB.

The best bet for the market at this time, say Asian sources, is $270-$275/mt FOB, with plenty of room for growth.

Producers are looking at predictions for 2007 with some glee. Reportedly, Indian demand for 2007 will be stronger. One estimate has Indian buyers looking for as much as 500-900,000 mt of additional ammonia for fertilizer and caprolactum production. This demand will more than offset any new production slated to come online in the region next year.

Last week Qafco 3 went down for a couple of days for a maintenance check. The #5 unit will go down this week for a one-week routine inspection and check-up.

The Oman facilities are down for the rest of the year for routine maintenance.

Fertil will be down in early February for a one-week turnaround.

The much-anticipated Iranian plant is not expected to start serious production until the second quarter of 2007. Originally, the plant was to be up and running by this quarter; then the start-up got pushed back to the first quarter.

The SAFCO IV plant is still running at 80 percent of capacity. Industry observers are beginning to wonder if it will ever get up to its listed capacity.

Indonesia: The KPI facility went down Nov. 18 for routine maintenance. If all goes well, it will be back up and running by Dec.10.

An explosion on a natural gas supply pipeline to Gresik caused a shutdown last week. No word as to when the pipeline will be repaired or when the company will get back to ammonia and urea production.

India: Demand next year is expected to be stronger than this year. Between industrial and fertilizer demand increases, sources in Asia say Indian buyers might be looking for 500-900,000 mt of additional material during 2007.

Long-term contract talks continue. Sources say PPL has settled with Transammonia for 200-300,000 mt next year. IFFCO is still in talks.

UREA

U.S. Gulf: Most players put prompt granular barges within the $248-$252/st FOB range last week, with product starting the week at the low end and working its way up. By week’s end, sources were reporting $255-$258/st FOB as having been done, but some said that was more for late December than nearby.

Much of the excitement last week appeared to revolve around a Sabic vessel that was being unloaded, with barges being sold off that vessel.

In the meantime, prills were trying to keep up with granular, with reports of deals around the $245/st FOB mark.

So far, U.S. urea imports are off 28 percent for the first three months of the fertilizer year, at 911,538 st from the year-ago 1.3 million st. September was even more pronounced, off 35 percent to 362,025 st from 560,489 st.

Eastern Cornbelt: Granular urea pricing was up in the region, with the market quoted at $275-$285/st FOB to the dealer.

Western Cornbelt: Granular urea was quoted at $275-$285/st FOB most regional terminals, with the low FOB St. Louis, Mo., and the higher numbers north. One source said terminal inventories were tight because few suppliers were willing to take an early position after getting burned during the 2006 spring season. As a result, sales were few in areas north of St. Louis.

Urea inventories remained particularly tight in the Tulsa, Okla., market on the Arkansas River, with numerous suppliers on allocation and the dealer market there now firmly at the $275/st FOB level.

California: Spot pricing was mostly unchanged from last report. One source said the California market traditionally is far removed from the rest of the country, and has not yet responded to the increase in nitrogen prices as few are looking to source railcars from the Midwest. Some importers and traders may start to throw out higher numbers as they try to resell blocks of tons going forward, but things remained quiet last week.

Granular urea was unchanged at $310-$320/st FOB and $320-$330/st DEL in California.

Pacific Northwest: Dealers reported little activity on the fertilizer front, although higher urea postings were in effect. Sources also reported tight urea supplies, with some suppliers out of product and not taking orders last week. Most sources tagged the urea market at $280-$290/st DEL in the Pacific Northwest, with Montana pricing quoted at $275-$285/st DEL.

Agrium firmed its warehouse postings for urea on Nov. 15 to $285/st FOB in Washington, up $10/st from the company’s Nov. 8 reference levels. Agrium’s delivered urea postings also moved up $10/st on Nov. 15 to $272-$277/st in Montana and Wyoming, depending on location; $290/st in Washington, Idaho, Oregon, and northern Nevada; $295/st in northern and central Utah; and $300/st in southern Utah. Simplot was referenced at $295/st DEL in the Pacific Northwest, less discounts.

Western Canada: Granular urea was quoted at $355-$375/mt DEL as of Nov. 27, up $15/mt from mid-month pricing. On Nov. 30, the urea market was slated to firm again to $385-$410/mt DEL in the region from one supplier.

Pakistan: First TCP canceled its tender. Then it called a new one. Sources say the first tender was scrubbed for a variety of reasons. One source said the prices being offered were too high; another observer noted that just about all the offers were for January and February deliveries, and the tender documents called for December delivery. And still another source said the main issue was the high prices.

According to one observer, the high prices and the delivery time went hand in hand. If TCP wanted December delivery, this source said, they should have expected to pay more. The new tender continues to ask for December shipment, but allows the loading to slip into early January. The second half of the tender calls for second-half January shipping.

Even with the later shipping date, sources say if TCP follows through with the tender, it will have to pay a premium to get the material it wants. The most likely source for tons is the Middle East, where supplies are tight.

The 50,000 mt tender closes Dec. 5 with a validity date until Dec. 6. Sources say this short period indicates that TCP will buy, but only if the price is right. The 24-hour period between opening the offers and the end of the validity period means TCP is not expected to entertain much dickering on the price. One observer noted that either the price is right or it isn’t.

There is some question as to whether TCP even needs the tons. The most logical conclusion is that the government is anxious – for political reasons – to build a buffer of urea to help farmers get cheaper material. With 50,000 mt extra on hand for the beginning of the year, sources say the local producers will be hard pressed to raise their prices. Because there are more farmers than urea producers, this is a winning scenario for the government.

Middle East: Producers are pushing up the price, said one source, because technically they are sold out. On the other hand, industry observers agree, the warehouses are filling up rapidly.

It seems IPL and MMTC in India are not nominating vessels fast enough for the producers. The rising freight market, along with strong competition for ships from other commodities, means it is getting more and more difficult to line up shipping. Add to the problem that many ship owners are not anxious to take material to Indian ports, where congestion continues.

With a filled order book, producers should not be offering tons to spot buyers or even to TCP/Pakistan in its tender. Yet, say sources, offers are being made.

The new asking price out of the region is pegged at $245-$250/mt FOB for prills and granular.

If a buyer agrees to the price and gets a vessel in, sources say the producers will move tons originally earmarked for the Indian market to the new buyer. Should IPL or MMTC get a ship in for loading, sources say, the producers feel they would be within their rights to tell the buyer to wait. After all, said one source, the producers expected many of these tons to have been lifted weeks ago.

Adding to the strength of the local market is the price out of Yuzhnyy. The fever that hit the market with the MMTC, TCP, ASSC, and Namhae tenders is still being felt in the Black Sea pricing. Middle East material is now seen as being at a discount to Yuzhnyy rather than parity – once freight differentials are calculated.

Even though MMTC and Namhae dropped their purchases and TCP put off theirs, the damage, say sources, was done and the price moved up. In an effort not to be caught buying at a peak in the market, Brazilian buyers stepped forward and helped build a floor for prices in Yuzhnyy. That strength is helping sustain the Middle East price.

Prills and granular continue to run at parity in the region. Sources say India’s willingness to take granular as an equal to prill means any deficit in prills is readily being met by material from the granular glut. Overall, said one trader, the two balance each other.

Granular demand from the United States is helping sop up some of the surplus that has been created in the world because of all the plant openings and expansions.

Lastly, producers like to point to business done with ASSC/Iran. The netback on the deal is reported at $255/mt FOB. However, industry sources note that the Iranians always get stuck paying a premium of $3-$5/mt. The $255/mt FOB price is now the one being quoted by producers, but few are willing to accept that level yet.

Producers are also claiming that because ASSC was concluded at $255/mt FOB, the new price is $260/mt FOB. No one is taking that price seriously – yet.

Black Sea: Based on expectations from all the tenders that were called last month, the Yuzhnyy price shot up to $255/mt FOB at the high end of offers. Real business, say sources, was closer to $250/mt FOB.

Even with the lower price, sources point out the rise in the market has been spectacular. The price from Yuzhnyy is now in the unusual position of parity with the Middle East – it is usually at a discount because of a freight differential. The strength of the market put a solid floor under Yuzhnyy and lit a fire under the Middle East.

Few in the industry expect the current price situation to stay stable.

Calls for tons by a number of major buyers sparked a buying frenzy that shot the price up. How long it will stay there is the big question.

Once MMTC/India and TCP/Pakistan announced they were going to buy tons, and then when ASSC/Iran and Namhae/South Korea called for material, the price really moved. Even though the buyers would most likely not take tons from the Black Sea, they would take from the Middle East, and that would leave potential supply gaps elsewhere for the Yuzhnyy guys to fill.

As the price expectations increased, Brazilian buyers decided it was time to enter the market. Better to pay on the way up than at the peak, said one source.

Now, after Namhae and MMTC scrapped their tenders, TCP delayed its, and ASSC settled with the Middle East, sources say there is little to recommend stronger prices in the Black Sea in the near future. Brazil is also reportedly done, or at least done enough that buyers do not have to come back to the market until early spring.

For now, the best bet has Yuzhnyy at $250-$255/mt FOB, with indications the price is about ready to slip.

India: Port congestion continues to cause delays in the loading and delivery of tons ordered by MMTC and IPL. Ship owners are not anxious to have their vessels tied up with holds full of urea and then just sit at anchor for weeks. Other commodities in the global economy need to be moved, so the owners are more than willing to accommodate these requests.

Because of the dwindling number of carriers willing to handle urea, sources say the price for freight from the Middle East to India comes out to $21-$22/mt.

Indian buyers and their agents are holding off taking primarily Middle East tons until the port situation gets worked out. In the meantime, sources say the Middle East producers are looking to sell tons to whomever can come and get the material right away. Once the Indian buyers are ready to start loading, said one source, there should be no problem finding the right quantity of urea for the vessel.

Indonesia: An explosion on a natural gas pipeline caused Gresik to shut down last week. The reduction in national output is not viewed by many in the industry as a major problem. The Indonesian government denied Kaltim’s request to sell its granular and prilled urea offshore. With no place to sell but domestically, Kaltim took to mixing some of its granular material in with the prills. The move seems to be relieving the pressure on the storage facilities.

China: Now that $230/mt FOB bagged for exported material has been done, sources say producers are asking $240/mt FOB bagged. If buyers were hesitant to accept the $230/mt FOB bagged number, they are downright belligerent about the $240/mt amount. Still, said one source, if anyone wants Chinese material, they have to move quickly.

As far as most people in the region can tell, once Jan. 1, 2007, starts, all material being loaded will face a doubling of the export duty tax. The Chinese government lowered the duty from 30 percent to 15 percent for the last quarter because there was no domestic market for urea. The duty goes back to 30 percent to discourage exports at a time when local buyers are beginning to build stockpiles for the spring seasons.

Because of the higher duty, the product will be too expensive for the international market, and thus build up a surplus in the country. With a surplus, the price to the local farmers should go down – to the joy of China’s 900 million farmers.

Bangladesh: It now appears that at least two companies that were awarded contracts with BCIC have opened not only their letters of credit, but have filed performance bonds. Liven and ConAgra filed the bonds last week, and are now looking for vessels to pick up Chinese product for delivery to Bangladesh. Reportedly, the tons are waiting for the companies at Chinese ports. The main problem is getting the ships.

Sources say Helm and Transammonia are also looking for vessels to pick up tons from China for Bangladesh.

During the past 5-6 months, BCIC has issued tenders calling for about 700,000 mt. So far, they have only received about 50,000 mt because of award winners that did not perform. The Liven and ConAgra orders could bring the number to 100-150,000 mt. That is still far below the levels conventional wisdom says the country needs.

There were also reports last week that BCIC has issued tenders for 50,000 mt of prills and 50,000 of granular in bags in maximum of four lots each. The offers are to be received up to Dec. 13.

NITROGEN SOLUTIONS

U.S. Gulf: Barge prices continued to move up last week, though still not at the same pace as urea. The DOC reported that UAN imports are off 38 percent for the first three months of the fertilizer year, at 341,347 st from the year-ago 550,694 st. September was more dramatic, off 62 percent to 120,820 st from the year-ago 321,195 st.

Eastern Cornbelt: UAN was quoted at $6.00-$6.25/unit FOB in the region, with the common dealer quote reported last week in the $6.15-$6.20/unit FOB range out of river terminals.

Western Cornbelt: UAN remained at $5.94-$6.25/unit FOB most regional terminals, with the low end reported for spot tons on the Mississippi River. On the Missouri River, the dealer reference price for UAN-32 was commonly quoted at the $200/st ($6.25/unit) FOB mark last week.

The arrival of the first significant winter storm in the Midwest last week coincided with the arrival of the last barge loads of liquid fertilizer for the season in Winona, Minn. Local reports said the Winona Port Authority reported a sizable increase in Mississippi River traffic this year compared with 2005. Through October, the Winona Port loaded and unloaded 980 barges, up nearly 50 percent from the same time last year, local news reports said. Following last week’s final barge arrivals, the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers will close the locks in Alma and Lunvxille, Wisc., for renovations, with a reopening scheduled for March 1, depending on weather.

California: UAN-32 was quoted at $200-$210/st ($6.25-$6.56/unit) FOB, with the low after discounts. One source said the net price will rise slightly as of Dec. 1 to the $205/st ($6.41/unit) FOB mark. Delivered UAN pricing was quoted at $215-$225/st ($6.72-$7.03/unit), with the upper end reflecting reference levels.

Pacific Northwest: UAN-32 remained at $203-$225/st ($6.34-$7.03/unit) DEL in the region, with the low for railed tons and the high for truck-delivered product. Sources reported little solutions tonnage coming from the Midwest.

Western Canada: UAN-28 was quoted at $222-$234/mt ($7.93-$8.36/unit) DEL in the region, up from last report. On Nov. 30, prices were scheduled to firm again to $247-$262/mt ($8.82-$9.36/unit) DEL.

AMMONIUM NITRATE

U.S. Gulf: Nitrate barges have been slow to follow urea prices, but they have finally gotten the message. Most sources called the AN barge market within the $200-$205/st FOB range last week.

U.S. imports are off 21 percent for the first three months of the fertilizer year at 188,209 st, down from 238,554 st.

Western Cornbelt: Ammonium nitrate was quoted at $250-$260/st FOB, up slightly from last report. Effective Dec. 4, Terra’s list prices for nitrate are slated to firm to $250/st FOB Yazoo City, Miss., and $260/st FOB McComb, Miss.

California: No market was reported for ammonium nitrate in California. CAN-17, however, was steady at $205-$210/st FOB in the state.

Pacific Northwest: CAN-17 was unchanged at $215-$220/st DEL. Ammonium nitrate remained at $275-$280/st rail-DEL in Idaho and Washington.

AMMONIUM SULFATE

Eastern Cornbelt: Granular ammonium sulfate remained at $155-$165/st FOB in the region.

Western Cornbelt: Granular ammonium sulfate was steady at $155-$165/st FOB.

California: Ammonium sulfate pricing remained flat at $165-$170/st FOB and $170-$180/st DEL in the state, with the lower numbers for standard or coarse and the upper end for granular sulfate.

Pacific Northwest: Ammonium sulfate was $160-$170/st FOB and $165-$175/st DEL in the region in late November.

Western Canada: Granular ammonium sulfate was quoted at a firm $270/mt DEL in the region last week.

PHOSPHATE

Central Florida: Activity after the Thanksgiving Holiday remained somewhat slow last week, but railcars were still being loaded under existing contracts. Activity and interest in new phosphate sales were coming mainly from the Southeast and the Midwest last week, but nasty weather in the Midwest will likely put the brakes on some of that buying. Typically, December into January is the slowest time of the year.

Both producers and traders appeared to have a much more optimistic outlook for the spring season. Dealers were putting phosphates in their bins to be ready for what they hope will be a robust market in the spring, at least in some cases. Some buyers were buying for future deliveries in January and February for the same reason. One producer said most of the sales made by his company last week were for spring fill, which was a switch from about half for immediate use and half for spring the previous week. Projections by the Department of Agriculture that far more acres of corn will be planted and the higher price of corn were at the heart of the rosy attitude of the fertilizer industry.

Last week, DAP prices in Central Florida remained in the range of $218-$219/st FOB, but discounts were unavailable. Mosaic discounts MAP $4/st from the price of DAP, while CF has no price difference. PotashCorp’s Central Florida reference price was still at $245/st FOB.

In Texas, Agrifos’ truck prices for DAP or MAP were $245/st FOB for either. That company also matches the rail prices of other producers. Agrifos has sold out into January after heavy demand from areas outside of Texas, where some drought continues.

U.S. Gulf: The Gulf remained the strongest of the three major markets last week, but most of the purchases were going directly to buyer’s warehouses – much of it for spring fill. Activity at terminals on the river system remained good, but slightly less than before the Thanksgiving Holiday. However, optimism was not in short supply. Almost everyone was claiming the spring season will be strong. “Farmers aren’t stupid,” one source said. “With the price of corn between three and four dollars a bushel, they are not going to try to mine the fields for fertilizer. They are going to spend more on fertilizer.” In addition to the higher price for corn, more corn will be planted, according to the Department of Agriculture.

Barge sales of both DAP and MAP were both healthy last week, and many of those purchases were for spring fill. When the fall season started many dealers were near empty and got caught short when the season suddenly took off, albeit later than normal. In addition, forward sales for March were going for as much as $228/st FOB, which could be a sign of higher prices within the next few months.

In general, the price of phosphates, both DAP and MAP, continued to climb slowly upward last week, but some buys were made below the previous week’s low end of the range. However, most sales were in the higher end of the range.

The lowest price paid for a DAP barge last week was $218/st FOB, and the highest was $223/st FOB for a larger number of barges. Efforts by sellers to get $224/st FOB last week came up empty. The NOLA DAP barge price range last week was $218-$223/st FOB, compared with $220-$223/st FOB the previous week.

Eastern Cornbelt: DAP and MAP were quoted at $255-$265/st FOB in the region. TSP remained at $235-$245/st FOB where available, with the low on the river system and the upper numbers inland. 10-34-0 was steady at $255-$265/st FOB in the region.

Western Cornbelt: The brisk fall season also resulted in some phosphates shortages, with outages reported in several locations last week. The DAP market remained at $255-$265/st FOB in the region, but several sources said the low end will likely firm to the $260/st level on the river when deplete warehouse levels are restocked.

MAP was the same as DAP, and TSP was pegged at $235-$245/st FOB, with the low on the river and the upper end inland. 10-34-0 was steady at $255-$265/st FOB, with the low in Nebraska and the upper numbers reported in Iowa.

California: MAP was unchanged at $315-$320/st FOB warehouse or DEL to the dealer, with the low for rail and the high for truck-DEL product. DAP was $5/st higher than MAP. 10-34-0 was steady at $252-$257/st FOB last week, and 16-20-0 remained at $235-$240/st FOB in the state. A slight increase on Dec. 1 put the 10-34-0 price range in the state at $253-$258/st FOB.

Super-phosphoric acid remained at $5.50-$5.60/unit DEL or FOB in the state through November, with ortho-phosphoric acid quoted at $5.50/unit with no discounts. A nickel/unit increase was scheduled for both products as of Dec. 1.

Pacific Northwest: DAP was unchanged at $312-$317/st DEL, with MAP quoted at $305-$310/st DEL. Montana prices were roughly $5/st less for both products. 16-20-0 was steady at $235-$245/st DEL, and 10-34-0 was up slightly to $245-$250/st FOB and $255-$265/st DEL in the region.

Agrium was taking winter fill orders for ammonium phosphates through Nov. 27, with shipments required by Jan. 15. Program prices before discounts included MAP at $315/st FOB and $320/st DEL in Washington, northern Idaho and Oregon; $315/t DEL in southern Idaho and Utah; and $310/st DEL in Montana.

Delivered phosphoric acid pricing remained at $5.50-$5.60/unit for super and $5.50/unit DEL for ortho grade. Postings from Simplot were slated to move on Dec. 1 to $5.65/unit DEL with a dime/unit discount in the Pacific Northwest, and ortho referenced at $5.55/unit DEL net with no discount.

Effective Dec. 1, Agrium’s delivered phosphoric acid prices are slated to move to $555/st for merchant grade and $565/st for superphosphoric acid in Arizona, California, Idaho, Montana, Nevada, Oregon, Utah, Washington, and Wyoming. A $5/st increase is scheduled for both products in January, and again in February and March. In May, merchant grade acid will take an additional $5/st increase to $575/st rail-DEL to those locations.

Western Canada: MAP pricing was quoted at $395-$430/mt DEL in the region, up $10/mt from last report.

U.S. Export: PhosChem reported no new sales last week. Indications last week were that India will take as much as 2.6 million mt of phosphate next year, which was good news for U.S. producers. In addition, that country will probably begin taking its imports earlier than it did this year, because congestion at ports was a problem. Interest was coming from customers in South America last week, although no new sales were reported. Iran, which was apparently fearful of threatened sanctions, was said to be importing large quantities of phosphates, but mostly from Russia and Lithuania. While that does not bring any new business to U.S. producers, it does remove phosphates from the market that could have been sold to other countries, such as in South America. In addition to India, Pakistan was expected to be a big buyer again next year, along with Brazil, Argentina, and Uruguay, which have little or nothing in the way of inventories.

With no new sales, the export DAP price was unchanged at $250-$257/st FOB.

Last week, The Fertilizer Institute released its revised export statistics for October. India, not China, was the biggest U.S. DAP customer that month, receiving 183,641 mt, while Pakistan was second at 141,126 mt; China had the third largest shipments with 125,110 mt. Overall, exports were up 5.9 percent. For the calendar-year-to-date, India, normally PhosChem’s biggest consumer, had a 9.6 percent increase over the previous year, to 2,053,868 mt, China had a decrease of 18.1 percent at 816,201 mt, and Mexico was third so far this year with 364,446 mt, a decrease of 8.9 percent. For the calendar-year-to-date, total sales were 5,190,134 mt, a decrease of 14.5 percent.

TFI said MAP sales were down 32.9 percent in October over the same period last year to 127,941 mt, with Canada the largest importer at 38,506 mt, and South Africa next at 26,396 mt. For the calendar-year-to-date, total export MAP sales were down 23.1 percent at 1,884,302 mt. Canada was the biggest buyer at 456,546 mt, an increase of 3.6 percent, followed by Australia at 274,859 mt, a 48.3 percent drop, while Brazil was third at 248,659 mt, down by 61 percent over the same period last year.

POTASH

Eastern Cornbelt: Potash continued to be quoted at $201-$204/st FOB most regional warehouses. Some sources said Russian potash was still available on a spot basis as low as $196/st FOB, but tons were very limited. With the arrival of a new vessel of import tons in the coming weeks, sources said the next round of sales could see a $6-$8/st increase out of the warehouse after the new year.

Western Cornbelt: Potash was steady at $201-$208/st FOB regional warehouses, depending on grade and location, with talk of another increase after the first of the year.

California: Potash was unchanged at $227-$233/st FOB, but sources said an increase is likely in January. Potassium nitrate pricing remained at $485/st FOB for bulk and $540/st FOB for 50-pound bags. Sulfate of potash (SOP) was steady at $343-$348/st FOB for granular and $331-$336/st FOB on standard/soluble, with brisk fall movement reported in the state.

Pacific Northwest: Potash remained at $215-$230/st DEL, depending on grade and location, with a pricing increase expected in the new year.

United States: U.S. imports are off 11 percent for the first three months of the fertilizer year, at 2.07 million st from the year-ago 2.32 million st. September was off 16 percent at 739,528 st from 881,605 st.

Western Canada: Coarse potash was steady at $242-$257/mt FOB, with the low at plant sites and the high out of regional warehouses. Granular potash remained at $245/mt FOB the mine.

SULFUR

Tampa: Predictions for the first quarter of next year were that another drop in the price of sulfur was probable, as a result of an over abundance of the material. Sulfur producers on the West Coast and Canada were close to either breaking even or losing money on each ton produced, as high ocean freights have forced their costs up and netbacks down. However, the cost of transporting sulfur to customers in the U.S. has also been on the rise, and the primary objective of sulfur producers has become how to get rid of it at the least possible cost. Visions of profits on sulfur were quickly fading.

Vancouver: Spot prices in Vancouver were said to have fallen below $40/lt. One source said the unwritten law of the sulfur industry is “do not impede refineries or processing plants,” because the industry doesn’t want a product of negative value “gumming up the works.”