U.S. imports in July were up 64 percent to 735,478 st, up from the year-ago 448,513 st, according to the U.S. Department of Commerce.

Eastern Cornbelt:The ammonia market was tagged at $560-$580/st FOB regional terminals, with the low reported in Indiana. Illinois sources put the dealer market firmly at the $570/st FOB level last week for fall or spring tons, with confirmed sales for both delivery periods.

Western Cornbelt: Although producer postings for ammonia had firmed to the $600/st level out of Iowa terminals, sources pegged the regional market in the $570-$580/st FOB range on the low end last week. Koch was reportedly posted at $600/st FOB Fort Madison, Iowa.

Effective Sept. 13, Agrium’s ammonia postings firmed to $600/st FOB Iowa terminals at Early, Garner, and Whiting; $595/st FOB Greenwood, Neb.; $590/st FOB Hoag, Neb.; $585/st FOB Clay Center, Kan.; $580/st FOB Conway, Kan.; $575/st FOB Mocane, Okla.; and $535/st FOB Borger, Texas.

For the Sept. 17-24 order and shipping period, another supplier reposted ammonia at $580/st FOB Palmyra, Mo., $595/st FOB Iowa terminals at Spencer and Garner, and $595/st FOB Nebraska terminals at Aurora and Fremont.

Northern Plains: A North Dakota source quoted the ammonia market at $600-$605/st DEL last week for fall tons, depending on supplier. Effective Sept. 13, Agrium’s ammonia postings firmed to $580/st FOB and $600/st DEL in the Leal, Velva, Grand Forks, and Beulah sales area in North Dakota. Out of Mankato, Minn., Agrium’s ammonia postings firmed to $600/st FOB on Sept. 13, up $40/st from the company’s Aug. 23 posting.

For the Sept. 17-24 order and shipping period, another supplier reposted ammonia at $580/st FOB North Dakota terminals at Grand Forks and Velva, and Minnesota terminals at Glenwood and Pine Bend.

Great Lakes: Regional sources quoted ammonia pricing to the dealer at $580-$600/st FOB last week.

Pacific Northwest: Effective Sept. 13, Agrium’s ammonia postings firmed to $580/st rail-DEL in Oregon, Washington, and northern Idaho; $600/st truck-DEL in northern Idaho and in Washington and Oregon east of the Cascades; $605/st rail-DEL in southern Idaho and Utah; and $630/st truck-DEL in Montana and northern Wyoming.

Western Canada: Anhydrous ammonia pricing in Western Canada continued to firm. The market last week moved up to $674-$718/mt DEL in the region, up $62/mt from the previous week, with the lower end in Manitoba and the higher numbers in Alberta. Dealer reference prices ranged from $684-$728/mt DEL, depending on location.

Black Sea: Demand for ammonia around the globe is pushing the price up. Sources say American and European demand in particular is helping tighten the market, even if that demand is not satisfied wholly from Yuzhnyy.

Talk of higher prices permeated the TFI gathering in San Francisco last week.

Sources said producers were asking $410/mt FOB and getting $390-$400/mt FOB.

The producers are clearly happy that prices are moving in a steady upward trajectory. At the same time, ammonia watchers at the TFI gathering who remembered the rapid rise of prices in 2008 to $900/mt FOB – and the subsequent crash in the fourth quarter of that year – were hopeful that the slower ascent this year could mean a more stable pricing situation.

After the extraordinary price fluctuations in 2008, the pricing pattern appears to have reverted back to a more standard set of ups and downs. Peaks in pricing have traditionally been hit in March-April, with a rebound in the early fall. This year is no different.

The year started with an average price about $275/mt FOB. By March, that average price moved to $385/mt FOB – and down to $292/mt FOB a few weeks later. Now the price range of $390-$400/mt FOB shows an average of $395/mt FOB from the area.

Industry sources at the TFI meeting said that while there have been fluctuations in the market price – as expected – the dips over the past 12 months did not go below the previous low. This steady rise in prices without dramatic jumps is pleasant news to those who watched the turmoil of two years ago.

Some in the industry have also noted that the Ukrainian producers are especially happy with the latest round of increases.

Production costs are expected to go up due to increases in natural gas prices.

Even though Ukraine is getting a discount on the price of Russian natural gas, there will still be a price increase.

Some observers noted that the accepted break-even price of $320/mt FOB for ammonia has been too high because of the various discounts and formula-based deals between Russia and Ukraine, and because of subsidies offered by the Ukrainian government.

One trader said that many people calculate the cost level by including the VAT charged by the Ukrainian government to the producers for the natural gas. What is not figured in, he said, is that exports based on natural gas – such as ammonia – get the VAT refunded.

As a result, the break-even price was not above $300/mt FOB, according to sources – but that could all change as the final quarter charges are about to be calculated.

With prices moving into the $400s/mt FOB, sources say the producers should have nothing to worry about regarding any incremental natural gas price bump.

Middle East: Sources report that producers are asking $390/mt FOB for product, but not yet getting it.

Prices are on the rise as demand from Asia, Europe, and the Americas strengthens.

Industry observers have been speculating for some time that Arab Gulf production has not been running at full capacity. One trader suggested that the plants are actually running at 75-80 percent of capacity.

The reduced run would keep contract customers happy and ensure no build-up of excess material, said one source.

While some dispute this scenario, few are able to fully explain why ammonia is so tight in the area by using only supply-demand logic.

Producers and traders at the TFI meeting were still seething over the price Transammonia offered in the FACT/India tender. One source noted that Trammo left about $40 on the table in a rising market.

Explanations that Trammo diverted a cargo or had an extra small cargo on hand were dismissed by traders and producers. Many opined that Transammonia was willing to break even or even take a loss on the small 7,500 mt award if it could hold off additional price increases until it could snap up additional tons.

Sources report that Transammonia was indeed buying up cargoes in the area soon after the award was made.

Asian sources report that prices are on the rise. The pricing ideas producers made to FACT in the low $400s/mt FOB are now being seriously considered by buyers. No one could report on any actual business done at or above $400/mt FOB, but many in the industry expect it to happen any day.

Sources are pegging the market at $380-$390/mt FOB.

The tightness in the regional market is expected to continue. Even if the Arab producers are not holding back on their production rates, sources say the loss of the Iranian Pardis I plant has provided a big hit to supply. The plant was closed after a pipeline explosion early last month. At the time, reports from the area indicated the damage was minimal and production would resume soon. Soon afterwards, however, reports of deaths came out, as well as the news that the plant might have to stay closed until early September, until repairs could be finished. The latest reports say the plant will be closed at least until the end of this month – and possibly longer.

Asia: Besides strong and steady demand from Taiwan and South Korea, Japan is now making a play for more imported material.

Ammonia production in Japan is closing down. Many of the plants have faced fines and penalties from increased government safety inspections during the past few years. A number of plants have been unable to conform to increasingly tough safety and health standards and are closing down.

Sources estimate that up to an additional 200,000 mt will have to be imported into Japan during the next year.

In addition to the Japanese needs, Thailand and Indonesia will also soon have increased demand for ammonia in the next 12-18 months.

This new demand will place severe strain on the already tight market of Asian suppliers. And that does not even count the steadily growing demand from China.

Sources say the ammonia will most likely have to come from the Arab Gulf and Yuzhnyy. Production facilities in Indonesia and Malaysia are already at their maximum levels. And no new plants are on the drawing boards in these two countries at this time.

UREA

U.S. Gulf: Granular barge prices continued to move up last week. Sources said trades began early in the week as low as $335/st FOB, and topped off the week as high as $350/st FOB. Most cited midweek business in the $340-$345/st FOB range. Sources said buyers simply waited too late to buy and found too little product available when they did. While vessels are coming in, some questioned whether they would really come in on time to meet buyer expectations. Others, however, thought the bloom would be off the rose regarding price increases once the rivers start closing in mid-October.

Prills could not keep up and were called $320-$325/st FOB for the last done business.

U.S. July imports were up 65 percent, to 374,379 st from the year-ago 226,907 st.

Eastern Cornbelt: Granular urea was pegged at $350-$370/st FOB, with the low reported by Ohio sources out of spot river locations last week.

Western Cornbelt: Granular urea was quoted at $370-$380/st FOB in the Western Cornbelt region, up $15-$20/st from last report, with the upper end of the range reported in the Iowa market. Sources quoted the dealer market FOB Dubuque, Iowa, at the $375/st level last week. Urea FOB Inola, Okla., was quoted at $370/st last week. On Sept. 17, Koch reposted urea FOB Enid, Okla., at the $375/st level.

Northern Plains: Granular urea pricing covered a broad range from $375-$395/st FOB, with the low reported in the Twin Cities and the upper end FOB Carrington, N.D. Delivered urea in North Dakota was pegged in the $400-$405/st range. Agrium’s granular urea postings firmed on Sept. 13 to $395/st FOB North Dakota terminals at Alton, Carrington, Colfax, Scranton, and Grand Forks, and $400/st rail-DEL in Minnesota and the Dakotas.

Great Lakes: Granular urea was quoted at $375-$395/st FOB, with the low reported by Wisconsin sources FOB Dubuque, Iowa, and the upper end out of Michigan warehouses to the dealer. Agrium’s granular urea posting firmed on Sept. 13 to $400/st rail-DEL in Wisconsin.

Northeast: Sources quoted the granular urea market at $355-$365/st FOB Philadelphia, Pa., with the low reported early in the week and the upper end confirmed as the week progressed. As for the E. Liverpool, Ohio, market, one source said urea tons were unavailable there, while another put the dealer market at $350/st FOB for the last done business. There was talk from some sources of urea pricing moving to the $380/st FOB level out of East Coast terminals in the near term.

California: Effective Sept. 13, Agrium’s granular urea postings firmed to $405/st FOB West Sacramento, Calif., $430/st truck-DEL in Central California, and $435/st truckDEL in Northern California.

Pacific Northwest: Agrium’s granular urea postings firmed on Sept. 13 to $395-$405/st DEL in Montana and Wyoming, depending on location; $410/st FOB West Woodburn, Ore.; $415/st FOB Idaho warehouses at Acequia and Pella, and Washington warehouses at Glade, Warden, and Wilson; $420/st DEL in Washington, Oregon, Idaho, and northern Nevada; $430/st DEL in northern and central Utah; and $435/st DEL in southern Utah.

Western Canada: Urea pricing in Western Canada was firming as well. The market last week moved to $471-$496/mt DEL in the region, up $35/mt from the previous week, with the low in Manitoba and the upper end in Alberta. Dealer reference levels for granular urea ranged from $480-$505/mt DEL in the region, depending on location.

India: On Friday MMTC announced a tender for an unspecified amount of urea, to close Sept. 23 at 11:30 a.m. local time. The deadline for shipment is Nov. 15.

Sources say India needs another 1.5 million mt through February.

The government, say sources, is concerned that its ceiling price of $310/mt CFR may have to be revised. One trader said the government will have no choice but to do so.

With Yuzhnyy at $325-$335/mt FOB, the Middle East at $335-$350/mt FOB, and China at $300-$320/mt FOB, there is no material that can fit into the government’s plan.

During the TFI conference in San Francisco, the slow and steady increase in urea prices was quietly discussed by many, as if acknowledging the movement would spook the price back down.

Meanwhile, local media reports say riots are breaking out in some areas over alleged shortages of urea and other fertilizers. The opposition political parties are milking the discontent for all it’s worth to weaken the government.

Industry watchers say there may be pockets of temporary shortage in the country, but there are plenty of tons in the pipeline to cover the current application season.

Black Sea: Prices keep edging up. Sources say $325/mt FOB was done late last week. Buyers are now willing to sit down and talk at $335/mt FOB.

Sources report a lot of material from the area has been snapped up by Fedcominvest and Transammonia. Speculation is that the tons are destined for Europe and Latin America.

The uptick in prices and the increased interest in Black Sea urea, especially from Yuzhnyy, was happy news for the producers.

The latest rounds of Indian tenders have not been good to the Black Sea suppliers. Looking for other places to sell their product, producers and traders worked together to find more lucrative markets and take advantage of increased demand elsewhere.

The first big market for the suppliers came from Latin America.

Sources reported more than a month ago that Fedcom was moving to grab as many tons as possible. At the time, people were thinking these tons would be offered in an upcoming Indian tender.

When there were no Fedcom offers in the tender, sources looked for other places the tonnage could go – and saw that while many in the industry were focused on India and Bangladesh, Fedcom was setting themselves up to sell cargoes to Latin America.

The steady flow of material out of Yuzhnyy and a growing demand for urea have combined to get prices moving up again.

Sources peg the market at $325-$335/mt FOB.

Middle East: Sources report PIC sold a cargo for $350/mt FOB. Others say the price was $335/mt FOB.

No matter what price was the final one, the evidence is in that the market has moved up smartly.

Until this deal, the only material being identified for sale outside the provisions of long-term contracts were tons awarded to Iran by India and material sold on a spot basis from Egypt to Europe.

The Iranian tons represented the low end of the market at $320/mt FOB, with the Egyptian tons at $350/mt FOB the high end. Now it appears that the Egyptians are asking for $370/mt FOB, while the Arab Gulf suppliers hope to tag along for the ride.

Arab producers that made offers into the Indian tenders came in with prices too high for the Indian government. While those offers gave a good idea of where the producers wanted the market to go, they were never accepted and could not set a new market level.

The producers were stuck with long-term deals with formula pricing.

The awards given to the Iranian producers edged the market upward, but not as far nor as fast as the Arabs hoped for.

The latest deal by PIC seems to have moved up the low end of the market to $335/mt FOB, while the upper end remains at $350/mt FOB.

Representatives from the Middle East and North Africa were in short supply at the TFI meeting. Sources said the unusual situation happened because the conference began just as the celebrations for the end of Ramadan also started.

China: Sept. 16 marked the beginning of a month of higher export duties on urea. The new duty of 110 percent will remain in effect through Oct. 15. After that date, the duty will revert to 7 percent for the rest of the year.

The increase in the duty is how the Chinese government decided to limit exports during key domestic supply-building periods.

The Chinese application season and reserve building periods kick into high gear in late September and early October. The government is anxious to make sure farmers not only have enough urea on hand, but that the farmers perceive that they have enough urea.

One Chinese trader noted that India is having political problems because local farmers perceive there is not enough urea on hand or in the pipeline for the application season. In fact, he said, there is enough, but in the past the Indian importers always brought in more tons than were needed. The apparent lack of these excess tons is what is triggering the perceived shortage.

The situation is similar in China, said a source.

Prices have moved upward just as the export window closed. The last quoted price was $300/mt FOB for prills and $320/mt FOB for granular.

Sources at the TFI gathering said the prices under discussion for late October shipment – when the duty is again lower – were $310/mt FOB for prills and $340/mt FOB for granular.

Whatever the discussed price, sources say no new deals were done in the $300s/mt FOB.

Industry observers said the Chinese ports shipping out urea were heavily engaged with orders for India. Fortunately for the traders and the Indians, material that has already cleared customs and has all the proper authorizations signed can be loaded after the Sept. 15 deadline without a tax penalty.

With increased demand by Chinese farmers, sources are unsure what will happen in the first quarter of next year.

In the past two years, the lower duty rate was extended through February. But no one is willing to bet that such an extension will happen again.

One source said the final decision from Beijing will be made in December. One year the decision came Dec. 30.

Until a decision is made, sources do not expect to see anyone looking for early 2011 material as the year wanes.

NITROGEN SOLUTIONS

U.S.Gulf: While price ideas are up for UAN, finding actual trades is another matter. Many said quotes are $260-$270/st FOB, but no business could be found. Instead, sources called the market $245-$250/st FOB ($7.66-$7.81/unit).

U.S. imports were down 22 percent in July, to 57,235 st from the year-ago 73,358 st.

Eastern Cornbelt: The low end of the nitrogen solutions market was quoted at $234/st ($8.36/unit) for prompt – and reportedly limited – UAN-28 tons FOB Cincinnati, while dealer pricing out of inland tanks in the Ohio market was tagged as high as $245-$250/st ($8.75-$8.93/unit) FOB. Sources in Illinois and Indiana quoted delivered UAN-32 firmly at the $290-$300/st ($9.06-$9.38/unit) level for the last done business.

Western Cornbelt: Nitrogen solutions pricing was also up from last report, with most sources tagging the UAN-32 market in the $285-$300/st ($8.91-$9.38/unit) FOB range. An Iowa source pegged the market firmly at the $288/st ($9.00/unit) FOB level in his area, noting that there were some tire-kickers at that level, but few buyers.

Northern Plains: Minnesota sources tagged the UAN-32 market at $295-$300/st ($9.22-$9.38/unit) FOB for prompt tons, while North Dakota contacts reported delivered UAN-28 as high as $285/st ($10.18/unit) from Canadian shipping points. No UAN prepay offers were reported in the region last week.

Great Lakes: UAN-32 had reportedly firmed to $290-$308/st ($9.06-$9.63/unit) DEL in the region, with Wisconsin sources quoting the Dubuque market at the $300/st ($9.38/unit) FOB level.

Northeast: Sources said there was no UAN available at Baltimore. One source speculated that the range for UAN-30 might move to $235-$245/st ($7.83-$8.17/unit) FOB when inventories are restocked. The only firm quotes last week included UAN-32 at $250/st ($7.81/unit) FOB Augusta, Ga., and at the same level out of spot terminal locations in Delaware. Import vessels were reportedly being discussed in the $280-$285/mt CFR range.

Out of solutions tanks in upstate New York, the UAN-32 market was quoted at $300/st ($9.38/unit) FOB last week.

Western Canada: UAN-28 pricing in Western Canada firmed last week to $282-$297/mt ($10.07-$10.61/unit) DEL, up some $21/st from the previous week, with the low reported in Manitoba and the upper end of the range in Alberta. Dealer reference levels moved up to $292-$307/mt ($10.43-$10.96/unit) DEL in the region, depending on location.

AMMONIUM NITRATE

U.S. Gulf: Like UAN, finding actual trades was hard to do. The last heard was $260/st FOB, but sources say quotes are now $280/st FOB and above.

U.S. imports were up 15 percent in July, to 32,562 st from the year-ago 28,300 st.

Western Cornbelt: Ammonium nitrate was quoted at $300-$305/st FOB in the Western Cornbelt.

AMMONIUM SULFATE

Eastern Cornbelt: Granular ammonium sulfate was quoted at $200-$210/st FOB in the region, up $10/st from the previous week, with the upper end FOB Maumee, Ohio.

Western Cornbelt: Granular ammonium sulfate had firmed to $210-$220/st FOB regional terminals for any available tons, up some $20/st from last report.

Northern Plains: Granular ammonium sulfate was pegged at $225-$250/st DEL in the region, with the low reflecting reference pricing from Dakota Gasification out of its Beulah, N.D., plant. Effective Sept. 13, Agrium’s granular ammonium sulfate postings firmed to $250/st rail-DEL in North Dakota and Minnesota.

Great Lakes: Granular ammonium sulfate had reportedly firmed to $210-$225/st FOB in the region. Effective Sept. 13, Agrium’s granular ammonium sulfate postings firmed to $250/st rail-DEL in Wisconsin.

Northeast: Granular ammonium sulfate remained at $170/st FOB and roughly $190/st DEL in the region, although sources were unsure if new orders could still be placed at those levels. One source put the E. Liverpool ammonium sulfate market at the $200/st FOB level last week.

Pacific Northwest: Effective Sept. 13, Agrium’s granular ammonium sulfate postings firmed to $245/st FOB warehouses in Washington, Oregon, Idaho, Nevada, and Utah, and $250/st DEL in those states plus Montana and Wyoming.

Western Canada: Granular ammonium sulfate pricing in Western Canada firmed last week to $315-$320/mt DEL, up $25/mt from the previous week. Dealer reference levels ranged from $325-$330/mt DEL in the region.

U.S. Imports: July imports were up 56 percent, to 31,929 st from the year-ago 20,471 st.

PHOSPHATES

Central Florida: TFI reported DAP/MAP closing inventories were only 683,000 st for August. This was down 21 percent from July and 12 percent from year-ago levels.

For farmers, it will mean they will have to pay more – unless they hooked up with a dealer on an early pre-pay deal. However, the reward will come quickly for farmers who have not committed all or most of their crops, because the price of corn for December 2010 hit $4.95/bushel on the futures board. In the following three months of 2011, corn will bring increasingly higher prices over $5/bushel, so farmers’ pockets will be stuffed with cash ready to spend.

Wheat and soybeans were also doing very well, all since the Russians put a ban on grain exports. Russia had been one of the leaders in grain production.

With little in inventories, CF and Mosaic were just loading railcars and trucks under existing contracts. Although it had nothing to sell, CF raised its price to $495/st FOB. The only ones that will affect were those who contracted for tons and agreed to pay the price at loading, rather than committing to the price at the time of purchase.

Although no producers made prompt deals in Central Florida last week, one trader made truck sales from a warehouse in Pennsylvania. After deducting all the charges it took to get the product to that warehouse, the deal worked out to $495/st FOB. The same trader also sold truckloads of phosphate at $485/st FOB.

Hurricanes formed in the Atlantic last week and one or two even reached Category 4, but none of them struck Florida. Earl, which had reached Category 4 status earlier, lost power and had winds only in the 20 mph range when it brushed across North Carolina’s coast, including Morehead City, where PotashCorp has storage, loading, and docking facilities. A company spokesman said no damage was done by the storm.

The Central Florida DAP price range moved from a flat $465/st FOB the previous week to $485-$495/st FOB, based on a combination of sales and posted prices. Neither Mosaic nor CF had anything available for prompt delivery this month, and probably will not for October, either. CF’s posted prices were $495/st FOB for DAP and $520/st FOB for MAP, a $25/st FOB premium. Mosaic had no posted prices, and was loading railcars for customers under contract and charging the market rate. PCS was making sales at “competitive prices.” Agrifos was asking $510/st FOB for DAP and $540/st FOB for MAP for truck sales, and railcars were about $5/st FOB less.

U.S. Gulf: The TFI conference did not temper the market for NOLA DAP or MAP barges. Actually, the opposite occurred – prices went up, and significantly so.

Those who did not grab a chair last week will be in a tight spot this week, when prices should rise even higher – perhaps breaking the $530/st FOB range.

At the conference the bulls were running wild, especially when it came to NOLA DAP barges, which rose in price $20/st FOB between Sunday and Wednesday.

Meanwhile, barges on the river were fewer, which meant the price was going up, barge sale by barge sale.

The barge market competes against the export market, and at the moment, barge prices outstrip the export market on price. Sellers see no reason to look to the export market for sales when prices are higher and shipping less complicated.

The higher NOLA DAP barge prices had not hit warehouses last week, but that could change drastically in the next few weeks. More than likely, farmers will not balk when they visit their dealers. If the weather cooperates and the river don’t rise, most farmers would like to get their applications on the harvested fields as soon as possible.

The main reason farmers will be in a good mood was the price of grain crops – especially corn, which was posted at $4.95/bushel on Thursday morning. The following months through March were all over $5/bushel.

In general, the Farmer’s Almanac said the winter this year will be warmer than usual, and most weather people don’t disagree. It will be warmer and wetter this winter. Up North, that means snow; farther South, it will mean rain. Farmers should apply as soon as possible to avoid the last-minute rush, while dry air was in place.

Based on sales last week, the NOLA DAP barge price range jumped up from $480-$498/st FOB the previous week to $500-$520/st FOB last week. Asking prices were $530/st FOB late last week, and will probably be higher this week.

Eastern Cornbelt: Fertilizer prices continued to ratchet up, along with reports of very tight supplies, particularly for phosphates. “Limited, limited, limited supply,” is how one contact described the market last week.

An Illinois source quoted DAP at the $525/st FOB or DEL level on the low end last week. In the Ohio market, DAP was pegged at $530/st FOB Cincinnati and $550/st FOB E. Liverpool for very limited tons. Effective Sept. 17, one supplier moved its DAP postings to $545/st FOB Peoria, Ill., and $550/st FOB Cincinnati.

MAP was a solid $15/st higher than DAP, where available. 10-34-0 had reportedly firmed to $390-$410/st FOB in the region, but spot quotes were hard to come by. One Ohio source said his suppliers were not quoting new prices for 10-34-0 last week.

Western Cornbelt: An early start to harvest is also launching some early plowdown fertilizer work in the region as well, and fertilizer prices continued to climb.

Sources quoted the DAP market at a firm $540-$550/st FOB most regional warehouses last week, reflecting another sizable jump from the previous week. MAP was in very tight supply; the dealer market was quoted at $560-$570/st FOB, where available, with one supplier saying he was out of 90 percent at his warehouses.

Sources quoted the Inola, Okla., market at $540-$545/st FOB for DAP and $565/st FOB for MAP. Effective Sept. 17, one supplier moved its DAP postings to $545/st FOB St. Louis, Mo., and $550/st FOB Inola, with MAP moving to $575/st FOB Inola.

10-34-0 pricing had reportedly firmed to $390-$410/st FOB in the region.

Northern Plains: Phosphate prices were moving up quickly, and sources talked of very tight supplies. “We’ll have a good fall, but we’ll see if we have enough fertilizer to meet demand,” said one source. “It’s like pulling teeth to get prices from some of these suppliers.”

One supplier reposted DAP at $530/st FOB Pine Bend, Minn., for the Sept. 10-17 order and shipping period, with MAP moving to $555/st FOB Pine Bend. For the Sept. 17-24 order and shipping period, those postings firmed to $550/st FOB for DAP and $575/st FOB for MAP. A North Dakota source quoted rail-delivered MAP tons at the $625/st level last week.

The only price quote reported for 10-34-0 at mid-month was $430/st DEL in North Dakota for prompt tons out of Canada.

Great Lakes: Sources pegged the DAP market at $540-$550/st FOB regional warehouses, with MAP $15-$20/st higher, where available. 10-34-0 was quoted at $400-$410/st FOB in the Great Lakes region.

Northeast: Sources said phosphate inventories at Philadelphia were tapped out last week, but one week earlier the MAP market there was a firm $550-$563/st FOB for the last confirmed business. Another source said forward contract DAP tons at E. Liverpool were available at $550/st FOB for October. One Pennsylvania dealer said growers in his trade area have cut phosphate and potash applications for three consecutive years, and that trend appears likely to continue due to pricing and availability issues.

10-34-0 was quoted at the $375/st FOB mark out of tanks in upstate New York.

Western U.S.: Effective Sept. 13, Agrium’s MAP postings firmed to $575/st FOB or rail-DEL in California and Arizona; $565/st FOB and $570/st DEL in Washington, northern Idaho, and Oregon excluding Malheur County; $565/st DEL in southern Idaho, Utah, Nevada, and Oregon’s Malheur County; and $560/st DEL in Montana and Wyoming.

The company announced another MAP increase on Sept. 17, moving to $595/st FOB and $600/st DEL in Washington, northern Idaho, and Oregon excluding Malheur County; $595 /st DEL in southern Idaho, Utah, Nevada, and Oregon’s Malheur County; and $590/st DEL in Montana and northern Wyoming.

U.S. Export: The export phosphate market showed signs of life, but the pulse remained weak last week. Keytrade did a sale of 8,000 to 10,000 mt into Mexico according to sources, who said a price of $530/mt FOB was achieved. In addition, there was a rumor that an export sale by a producer to a trader at $545/mt FOB was done but could not be confirmed, so it was not included in the price range for last week.

However, a price of $530/mt FOB was far too low to draw action away from the busy domestic market, where prices are higher.

TFI issued its export of phosphates report for August, which showed the impact India has had on the DAP market. In August, India accepted 352,408 mt of the total of 462,341 mt of DAP shipped for the month. Compared to August of last year, DAP registered a 3.2 percent dip. TFI said the next largest buyer was Japan at 27,559 mt, and Mexico and Colombia were very close for the third spot, with Mexico taking 13,830 mt and Colombia 13,600 mt. For the calendar year-to-date, India had taken 1,719,662 mt of the total of 3,069,220 mt DAP shipped from the U.S. as of August 31. Exports were running about 18.6 percent below the same period in 2009. The next biggest customers were Mexico at 186,860 mt and Australia at 172,292 mt.

TFI reported MAP sales were down 33.1 percent from the same period last year, at 107,204 mt. Brazil was the big buyer at 59,869 mt, followed by Canada at 36,565 mt, and Japan at 17,865 mt. For the calendar year-to-date, TFI showed Brazil was the biggest customer at 388,863 mt so far this year, Australia was second at 230,348 mt, and Canada came in third for the year at 209,624. The total of 1,219,955 mt was an increase of 5.4 percent more than last year.

Based on the Keytrade sale to Mexico last week, the new DAP export range was a flat $530/mt FOB. The price will certainly rise for the next sale.

POTASH

Eastern Cornbelt: Agrium announced higher potash postings last week, following an earlier announcement of higher potash prices from PCS Sales. An Ohio source said growers were applying potash and phosphates to preplant wheat ground last week. He noted delays in shipments of contracted fill tons of potash, however.

Some sources said spot tons of potash could still be found at the $410/st FOB level, but others said $440/st FOB was a firm warehouse price based on updated producer postings. One contact put the Peoria, Ill., granular potash market at $435/st FOB last week.

PCS Sales’ granular potash postings moved on Sept. 7 to $440/st FOB warehouses in Illinois, Indiana, and Ohio. Agrium also firmed its red premium potash postings for the Sept. 13 through Dec. 31 order and shipping period. New reference levels include $440/st FOB Illinois warehouses at Rock Island, Granite City, Calumette City, and Marseilles; Indiana warehouses at Garrett, Seymour, and Mt. Vernon; and Ohio warehouses at Washington Court House, E. Liverpool, and Toledo. New rail-delivered potash postings from Agrium include $450/st in Indiana, Ohio, and Illinois.

Western Cornbelt: Potash was tagged at $410-$440/st FOB, with the upper end reflecting new reference levels from producers. One source put the granular potash market firmly at the $435/st level FOB Dubuque, Iowa. Another said he had moved solidly to $440/st FOB at his locations, saying producers were way behind on shipping summer fill tons and warehouses were not fully charged for the fall season. “That’s the number,” he said. “We hear some $410 and $420, but we don’t care. Potash is going to be a logistical nightmare, and I’m going to sell everything I got.”

Effective Sept. 7, PCS Sales upped its granular potash postings to $440/st FOB Ft. Dodge and Waterloo, Iowa, and St. Louis, Mo. Agrium also firmed its red premium potash postings for the Sept. 13 through Dec. 31 order and shipping period. New reference levels include $440/st FOB Dubuque, Iowa, New Madrid, Mo., and Homestead, Neb., and $450/st rail-DEL in Iowa, Missouri, Nebraska, Colorado, Kansas, and Oklahoma.

Effective Oct. 1, Intrepid Potash’s postings FOB Carlsbad, N.M., will firm to $375/st for 60 percent standard, $380/st for 60 percent granular, $382/st for 62 percent standard, $385/st for 62 percent fine standard, and $388/st for 62 percent granular. Those prices will firm another $30/st on Nov. 1.

Northern Plains: North Dakota sources quoted the potash market at $430-$440/st DEL, based on a $400/st FOB Saskatchewan mine price. Agrium firmed its potash postings for the Sept. 13 through Dec. 31 order and shipping period in the Minnesota, Dakotas, and Montana sales region. New reference levels FOB Vade, Saskatchewan, include $400/st for standard and $405/st for premium grade.

Agrium’s new warehouse postings for red premium potash include $440/st FOB Shakopee, Minn., and North Dakota terminals at Grand Forks and Colfax. Rail-delivered postings from the company firmed to $450/st in Minnesota and the Dakotas. Those levels were up $30/st from the company’s Aug. 18 potash postings.

Great Lakes: Granular potash postings from PCS Sales firmed on Sept. 7 to $440/st FOB Green Bay, Wisc., and Maumee, Ohio. Agrium firmed its red premium potash postings for the Sept. 13 through Dec. 31 order and shipping period. New reference levels include $440/st FOB Saginaw, Mich., and $450/st rail-DEL in Michigan and Wisconsin, up $50/st from the company’s summer fill postings.

Northeast: Several sources said the last potash sales were concluded at the $400/st FOB and $420/st DEL levels in the region, but those numbers were no longer in effect last week. PCS Sales firmed its granular potash postings on Sept. 7 to $450/st FOB Baltimore, Md., and $447/st FOB Chesapeake, Va.

Agrium also firmed its red premium potash postings for the Sept. 13 through Dec. 31 order and shipping period. New reference levels include $447/st Lynchburg, Va., and Wilmington, N.C., and $450/st FOB Mulberry, Fla., and Georgia warehouses at Americus, Bainbridge, Savannah, and Tifton. New rail-delivered postings from the company include $455/st in Massachusetts, Connecticut, Rhode Island, Maine, Vermont, New Hampshire, Delaware, Maryland, New Jersey, New York, Pennsylvania, West Virginia, Kentucky, Tennessee, Alabama, Georgia, Florida, Virginia, and the Carolinas. That rail-DEL figure represents a $30/st increase from the company’s previous posting.

Western U.S.: Agrium firmed its red premium potash postings for the Sept. 13 through Dec. 31 order and shipping period. New reference levels include $450/st FOB and $460/st rail-DEL in southern Idaho, Utah, and Oregon’s Malheur County; $455/st FOB and $465/st rail-DEL in Washington, the Idaho panhandle, and Oregon excluding Malheur County and the Willamette Valley; and $460/st FOB and $470/st rail-DEL in Oregon’s Willamette Valley.

Intrepid Potash’s potash postings FOB Moab and Wendover, Utah, will firm on Oct. 1 to $375/st for 60 percent standard and $380/st for 60 percent granular. Those levels will move up another $30/st on Nov. 1.

U.S.Imports: July imports were up 60 percent, to 493,591 st from the year-ago 307,657 st.

SULFUR

Tampa: Sulfur was one of the topics of discussion in San Francisco last week at the TFI conference, but most of the talk centered around not if sulfur will rise, but how much. No one came up with any decisive number. One prediction was back to where it was for the second quarter, up $50 for molten sulfur delivered to Tampa. That would put it closer to the world price. Another prediction from a few weeks ago was by Miss Phos, which estimated a $20-$25/lt increase. However, fourth-quarter talks had not started last week – and probably won’t until after the beginning of October.

Overall, sulfur supplies were becoming tighter than earlier, because refineries were gearing down from producing gasoline for the summer driving season, which is over, to heating oil for the winter.

Sulfur producers – oil companies, that is – could use the new, higher prilling capacity on the Gulf Coast to put the squeeze on phosphate producers, although there were no indications they planned to do so. However, with the price of prill on the Gulf running about $150 mt FOB, it might be tempting.

U.S.Imports: July imports were up 85 percent, to 265,794 st from the year-ago 143,616 st.