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The Week in Fertilizer Stocks

The Week in Fertilizer Stocks


Producer Symbol Price Week Ago Year Ago
Agrium AGU 95.16 89.07 90.33
CF Industries CF 203.65 193.49 156.65
CVR Partners UAN 25.03 23.09 24.99
Intrepid Potash IPI 24.02 23.26 32.95
Mosaic MOS 57.62 54.44 68.49
PotashCorp POT 45.31 43.95 60.51
Rentech Nitrogen RNF 29.58 28.33 N/A
Terra Nitrogen TNH 227.95 207.83 138.06
Distribution/Retail
Andersons Inc. ANDE 38.04 39.86 42.55
Deere & Co. DE 75.69 78.26 80.88
Scotts SMG 39.17 38.76 49.82

Pakistan-Iran proceed with barter deal

Pakistan media report an end to the deadlock between Pakistan and Iran over a barter deal that includes urea shipments to Pakistan. The deal was hung up on Iran complaining about the price and quality of Pakistan wheat, but negotiators removed the last roadblock this past week.

Under the barter arrangement Pakistan will send Iran about 1 million mt of wheat at the prevailing international market price. In return, Iran will send iron ore and fertilizers.

The deal has been under discussion since February. The delay was put on Iran’s reservations about accepting any wheat with a fungal disease known as Karnal bunt.

In the end, Pakistan showed that its wheat has a 0.3 percent ration of the disease while international standards allow 1 percent. Iranian negotiators were insisting on zero percent.

No word yet on how many tons of fertilizers Iran will send.

Iran-Pakistan cross-border trade is pegged at US$10 billion. Other arrangements being negotiated include oil and natural gas pipelines and refineries to move Iranian petroleum products through Pakistani ports.

Indian urea production up, DAP way off

The Indian Ministry of Chemicals and Fertilizers released the May numbers for urea and DAP production and availability. May is the latest set of numbers available.

Urea production was pegged at 1.8 million mt against an anticipated 1.7 million mt. While urea showed a surplus over planned production, DAP output was almost half of what was expected. May 2012 DAP production was 188,000 mt as opposed to a targeted output of 400,000 mt.

The government report added that the country had a supply of 2.6 million mt of urea for May. According to the report that was more than enough to cover the local demand for urea.

All told the government claimed it had 1.1 million mt of DAP available for local farmers. The report called the supply on hand “adequate to meet the demand of the States.”

Yara reports strong 2Q results

Citing increased fertilizer sales volumes and improved urea margins, Yara International ASA on July 18 reported second-quarter net income after non-controlling interests of NOK 2,800 million (NOK 9.86 per share), compared with NOK 2,225 million (NOK 7.73 per share) last year.

Excluding net foreign exchange gain and special items, the result was NOK 10.84 per share, compared with NOK 7.84 per share in second quarter 2011. Second-quarter EBITDA excluding special items was NOK 5,196 million, compared with NOK 3,540 million last year.

“Yara reports strong second-quarter results, reflecting a strong nitrogen fertilizer market and a significant increase in sales of Yara-produced fertilizer, especially outside Europe," said Jørgen Ole Haslestad, president and CEO. “Our value-added nitrate and NPK business continues to perform well, and we are also improving our commodity cost position with production growth in Pilbara and Qafco. With these initiatives, Yara’s gas and oil consumption outside Europe increases to almost 45 percent of the Yara total.”

Global Yara fertilizer deliveries were up 6 percent from second quarter 2011, while sales of Yara-produced fertilizer increased by 14 percent. Nitrate sales were up 13 percent from last year’s second quarter, reflecting increased sales in Europe and Latin America. Yara’s global energy costs declined 7 percent compared with second quarter last year.

Nitrogen fertilizer industry deliveries for the 2011/12 season in Western Europe were 10 percent lower than a year earlier, as cold and dry spring planting conditions impacted overall consumption. However, Yara said it continued to take advantage of its ability to export premium products to overseas markets and ended the season with European stocks below a year earlier.

Second-quarter nitrogen fertilizer deliveries in Europe were primarily for immediate consumption, Yara reported, but pre-buying incentives for the new season are stronger than a year ago given the recent strengthening of grain prices.

Locals deny zoning to fertilizer plant

The Scott County, Iowa, Planning and Zoning Commission voted 6-1 on July 17 against the rezoning of 318 acres for Egypt’s Orascom Construction Industries (OCI) to build a $1.5 billion nitrogen plant. The Commission met before a standing-room only crowd, and some 50 people spoke for and against the plant, according to the local press. Per OCI’s approval, the plant will now go before the Scott County Board of Supervisors for a decision in August. A new venue that can accommodate a larger crowd is being sourced for that meeting. The site is currently agricultural and would be rezoned heavy industrial for the new plant.

Agrium boosts earnings projections

Agrium Inc. said today that it expects its second quarter earnings to be in the range of $5.40 to $5.50 diluted earnings per share and the first half earnings to be in the range of $6.72 to $6.82 diluted earnings per share. The estimate excludes hedging gains or losses and share-based payments expense in our first quarter actual results and estimated second quarter results. This revised earnings estimate is approximately 15 percent higher than the previously announced second quarter guidance level and would represent a record earnings for the second quarter and the first half of the year.

“The increase in expected earnings is due to excellent results across our entire crop input business, resulting from the continuation of robust demand through June, despite the very early start to the spring season. As a result, the second quarter EBITDA for all three business units is expected to be higher than the same period last year. The outlook remains very positive, supported by the significant increase in grain and oilseed prices globally due to adverse weather in the U.S. and an expected tightening in international crop input markets. Detailed financials and more color on our results and the outlook for our business and sector will be provided in our second quarter financial results on Aug. 2, 2012,” said Mike Wilson, Agrium President and CEO.

MosaicÆs fourth quarter impacted by lower phosphate pricing

The Mosaic Company reported fourth quarter fiscal 2012 net earnings of $507 million, compared to $649 million a year ago. Earnings per diluted share were $1.19 in the quarter compared to $1.45 last year. The year-over-year decline was primarily driven by lower phosphate pricing.

Mosaic’s net sales in the fourth quarter of fiscal 2012 were $2.8 billion, roughly flat with the same period last year, as growth in realized potash prices was offset by lower prices in phosphates.

“We completed a fiscal year of significant accomplishments with a strong fourth quarter,” said Jim Prokopanko, Mosaic president and CEO. “The extended spring season in North America, along with continuing strong demand for our products in Central and South America, led to solid financial results for the quarter. Despite challenging market conditions for much of the fiscal year, Mosaic made great progress. We improved our operating efficiency in both Potash and Phosphates, made substantial headway on our potash expansion projects, set new records for premium product sales and cash from operations, and, most important, our people delivered our best safety performance ever.”

Mosaic’s gross margin for the fourth quarter was $834 million, or 30 percent of net sales, compared to $995 million, or 35 percent of net sales, a year ago. Fourth-quarter operating earnings were $671 million, a decrease of 19 percent compared to $825 million a year ago. The decreases in gross margin and operating earnings were primarily driven by lower phosphate pricing.

Cash flow provided by operating activities in the fourth quarter of fiscal 2012 was $1.2 billion compared to $973 million in the prior year. The year-over-year improvement was primarily driven by decreased North American phosphate inventory and increased customer prepayments. Capital expenditures totaled $449 million in the quarter. Mosaic’s total cash and cash equivalents were $3.8 billion and long-term debt was $1.0 billion as of May 31, 2012.

Net sales in the Phosphates segment were $1.8 billion for the fourth quarter, down 5 percent compared to last year. Gross margin was $322 million, or 18 percent of net sales, compared to $479 million, or 25 percent of net sales, for the same period a year ago. The decline in net sales and gross margin was attributed to lower finished goods pricing. Operating earnings for the segment were $224 million for the quarter, down 39 percent compared to $370 million last year.

The fourth-quarter average DAP selling price FOB plant was $494/mt, compared to $574/mt a year ago. Phosphates segment total sales volumes were 2.9 million mt, compared to 2.8 million mt a year ago. Mosaic’s North American finished phosphate production was 2.1 million mt, or 86 percent of operational capacity, flat with the same period a year ago. Curtailments early in the quarter were offset by subsequent high operating rates as the market tightened through the 2012 quarter.

“Our Phosphates business ended the year on a strong note, with robust shipments worldwide,” Prokopanko said. “The phosphate market has tightened, as producer inventories dropped dramatically with global demand more than offsetting lower sales to India. While ammonia prices have increased, we expect these cost increases to be offset by higher finished product prices. As a result, we expect the gross margin percentage in the first quarter of 2013 to remain essentially unchanged from the prior quarter. Increased production at the South Fort Meade mine should benefit our rock costs later in the year.”

Net sales in the Potash segment totaled $1 billion for the fourth quarter, up six percent compared to $982 million a year ago, as higher realized prices were partially offset by a small decline in sales volume. Mosaic estimates sales volumes in the quarter were negatively impacted by approximately 100,000 mt

Pryor UAN back up; NH3 permits granted; El Dorado to get new acid plant, Pryor NH3 converter

LSB Industries Inc. on July 11 gave an update on its El Dorado, Ark., and Pryor, Okla., nitrogen plants, which have been undergoing repairs. While the company will have to build a new nitric plant at El Dorado, other plants are gradually ratcheting back into production as planned. Over at Pryor, UAN production has resumed after going offline Feb. 27, and the company is readying for a new converter for its ammonia plant and has gained permits for two small ammonia plants.

A May 15 explosion at the El Dorado facility (GM May 21, p. 1) caused major damage at the 98 percent concentrated nitric acid (DSN) plant and peripheral damage to other plants at that location. On June 5 (GM June 11, p. 1), LSB provided an assessment of damages and its plans to resume production. LSB said it restarted regular nitric acid and ammonium nitrate production, as planned, on a partial basis in June, and is on track to increase that production during July and August as various plants are brought back online, as per the originally announced timetable.

LSB has determined that repairing the DSN plant is not feasible. It intends to replace the nitric acid production capacity lost by this event with a new nitric acid plant. Engineering is underway to determine the specifications for the new acid plant. Before the May 15 event, the DSN plant produced approximately 20 percent of the nitric acid manufactured at the El Dorado facility.

The three other nitric acid plants, which produce approximately 80 percent of the nitric acid at El Dorado in concentrations from 56-63 percent, sustained less damage and are being brought back online. The first of these three has returned to full production, and the other two should restart later this month and in August.

Both the high density and low density ammonium nitrate prill plants are ready for full production as acid production continues to be restored. These prill plants are currently operating at less than full capacity due to limited availability of feedstock.

Company-wide, LSB nitric acid capacity is listed as approximately 1.2 million st, with El Dorado representing about 41 percent of company capacity. El Dorado can also upgrade acid to other products, particularly ammonium nitrate. AN site capacity is listed at 602,000 st/y, just less than half of LSB’s 1.3 million st/y capacity.

Production at the sulfuric acid plant should resume before year end. Before the May 15 explosion, sulfuric acid was approximately 8 percent of the El Dorado facility’s sales.

LSB said all loading and unloading facilities are fully operational. The temporary nitric acid control room is operational, and plans are being prepared for a new permanent control facility. Repairs to the permanent electrical service and various support facilities are nearing completion. LSB said it is continuing to work with its insurance carriers and is making good progress.

As for Pryor, LSB said that plant is once again producing UAN. Back in March, the urea plant was taken out of operation to repair a break in the reactor’s stainless steel liner.
On April 25 (GM April 30, p. 1), LSB determined that the break could not be repaired, so it decided to replace the liner and announced that the urea plant would be down through the second quarter. The liner replacement is complete, and as a result UAN production has resumed. Annual UAN production at Pryor is 416,000 st/y, or 34,666 st/m. During the time that the urea plant was down, Pryor continued to produce and sell ammonia and downstream products.

The main ammonia plant at Pryor has been recently producing at approximately 75 percent of 2012 previous operating rates because of problems with the ammonia converter. “Despite the fact that our Pryor facility has been extremely profitable, it has not yet achieved its full potential,” said Jack Golsen, LSB board chairman and CEO.

North America on tap for major revival in nitrogen production

With low North American natural gas prices, domestic and offshore companies are looking to revive the North American nitrogen production business, which waned when natural gas prices skyrocketed and devastated production over a decade ago.

While skeptics can easily argue that demand is not growing to meet the need for this new capacity, the new tons can instead go to compete with and replace imports. U.S. imports currently make up approximately one-half of U.S. nitrogen consumption. When the U.S. industry was pummeled years ago, producers went offshore to Trinidad and Venezuela to build new plants, and buyers also sourced product from the Arab Gulf and Former Soviet Union. Now the U.S. has the low gas price, thanks to oil shale gas, and can more readily compete with these offshore tons.

To date, some seven companies have publicly reported that they are eyeing the construction of major new nitrogen projects in North America – North Dakota Corn Growers Association (NDCGA), Yara International ASA, Agrium Inc., Orascom Construction Industries (OCI), Incitec Pivot Ltd. (IPL), The Mosaic Co., and Indian Farmers Fertiliser Co-operative Ltd. (IFFCO) – with others privately researching the possibility. In addition, three major companies – CF Industries Holdings Inc., Koch Nitrogen Co., and Agrium – are seriously eyeing the upgrade of existing plants, and others, including Potash Corp. of Saskatchewan Inc., are weighing those options. Rentech Nitrogen Partners and LSB Industries Inc. continue to upgrade their East Dubuque, Ill., and Pryor, Okla., facilities, respectively.

The latest to be publicly mentioned is the one backed by NDCGA (see page 1), which is estimated to cost $1 billion.

Of the projects, Yara says its proposed 1.3 million mt/y urea plant adjoining its existing nitrogen complex in Belle Plaine, Sask., is fast-tracked for an expected start-up in second-half 2016 (GM June 18, p. 1). However, the final decision to implement the project still awaits an engineering, procurement, and construction (EPC) contract, and agreements with Saskatchewan authorities relating to utilities and other key terms of the project.

The new plant will have two urea granulation units and its own ammonia production. It will produce 1.3 million mt of urea and urea plus sulfur per year, bringing total Belle Plaine production capacity to 2.4 million mt/y. Current Belle Plaine production stands at 1 million mt/y urea, 700,000 mt/y ammonia, and 200,000 mt/y UAN, with most of the ammonia used to make urea and UAN.

In the meantime, Agrium is searching the U.S. Cornbelt for a site for a new nitrogen plant that would produce 2 million mt/y, primarily urea and UAN, with a little excess ammonia left over to sell (GM June 18, p. 1). Pending board approval, which it hopes to have within a year, Agrium said the plant would be fast-tracked for start-up in early 2017.

Agrium says it needs a plant in the U.S. heartland, particularly since it has so many dealerships in that area. In addition, it noted tight nitrogen supplies in the area. It is not worried about oversupply, saying that 12-14 new North American nitrogen plants would be required to displace current U.S. imports.

Also within a year, Agrium hopes to have board approval for a $150 million urea debottleneck of the Redwater, Alberta, facility that would add 170,000 mt/y of urea, with a startup slated for 2015. Current Redwater urea production is 700,000 mt/y. Agrium is also eyeing a $500 million ammonia debottleneck and urea brownfield at its Borger, Texas, facility. This project would add another 120,000 mt/y of ammonia production and 640,000 mt/y of urea production, with a startup slated for 2016. Agrium said actual net ammonia production would go down about 250,000 mt to accommodate the increase in urea production, but would allow the company to better flex between urea and ammonia.

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