All posts by webster@kennedyinfo.com

Farmer equity key; Canadian investors sought for Northern Plains nitrogen plant

Backers of a proposed nitrogen plant for the Northern Plains are reaching across the border to Canadian farmers as investors in the project, Darin Anderson, president of the North Dakota Corn Growers Association (NDCGA), told Green Markets last week. As previously reported (GM July 9, p. 1), corn growers in the tri-state area of North Dakota, South Dakota, and Minnesota are being eyed for the project.

Anderson said the form of the entity is yet to be decided. A cooperative has been mentioned. He said the ultimate goal is for it to be majority owned by farmers.

Much is yet to do for the $1 billion project, including finding a site, as well as deciding on engineering, design, and product mix. While a site has not been selected, supporters do hope that the facility can utilize natural gas that is currently being flared – i.e., wasted – in North Dakota. This possibility is currently being studied. Regardless, until that is a reality, North American natural gas prices are attractive for any new startup.

Anderson said any facility would produce multiple nitrogen products, and investors would be queried on their preferences.

Anderson hopes that once these decisions are made, ground could be broken in late 2013/early 2014.

As noted last week, NDCGA feels growers are at risk when local producer Dakota Gasification in Beulah has problems. Likewise, it feels area growers are at the end of the line with regards to fertilizer distribution in general, making a regional plant a big plus for local growers.

NDCGA has lined up industry veteran Don Pottinger as an advisor, as well as Larry Mackie of Mackie International Inc.

The Week in Fertilizer Stocks

The Week in Fertilizer Stocks

Producer Symbol Price Week Ago Year Ago
Agrium AGU 89.07 91.94 87.23
CF Industries CF 193.49 199.76 147.50
CVR Partners UAN 23.09 24.78 23.29
Intrepid Potash IPI 23.26 23.61 31.33
Mosaic MOS 54.44 56.10 66.32
PotashCorp* POT 43.95 45.50 57.49
Rentech Nitrogen RNF 28.33 29.22 N/A
Terra Nitrogen TNH 207.83 220.89 128.60
Distribution/Retail
Andersons Inc. ANDE 39.86 43.48 41.95
Deere & Co. DE 78.26 81.98 81.65
Scotts SMG 38.76 41.27 51.70
* represents three-for-one stock split

Sulfur

Tampa: PotashCorp said late last week that it had begun negotiations for third-quarter molten sulfur contract prices for Tampa. Mosaic started its talks a week earlier. Progress toward a resolution has been slow.

Pretty much everyone agrees the price will go down—the question is how much. A decrease of between $10/lt and $30/lt was expected. Supply was running somewhat ahead of demand, which was putting pressure on molten prices in the Gulf area.

PotashCorp was still working to restore its processing facility at White Springs late last week, and was expected to begin making MAP again on July 15-16. The outage following Tropical Storm Debby was adding to the surplus sulfur supply.

Valero Energy was repairing its sulfur recovery system at its 156,000 barrel-per-day McKee refinery at Sunray, Texas. A malfunction caused a sulfur dioxide release.

Potash

U.S. Gulf: Potash barge business continued to be quiet, with the most recent business put within the $465-$475/st FOB range.

Eastern Cornbelt: Agrium announced new potash postings, effective July 1. Warehouse postings for red premium potash moved to $510/st FOB Illinois terminals at Rock Island, Granite City, Calumet City, and Marseilles; Indiana terminals at Garrett and Mt. Vernon; Ohio terminals at Washington Court House, E. Liverpool, and Toledo; Owensboro, Ky.; and Saginaw, Mich. Those warehouse postings match earlier reference prices announced by PCS Sales on June 11.

Agrium’s postings for rail-delivered red premium potash moved on July 1 to $520/st in Indiana, Ohio, Michigan, and Illinois.

Western Cornbelt: Effective July 1, Agrium’s warehouse postings for red premium potash moved to $510/st FOB New Madrid, Mo., Homestead, Neb., and Iowa terminals at Sioux City and Camanche. Agrium’s postings for rail-delivered red premium potash moved on July 1 to $520/st in Iowa, Missouri, Nebraska, Kansas, Oklahoma, and Colorado.

Northern Plains: Potash pricing was also down from last report, with new postings announced in July. Sources quoted the warehouse market at $505-$515/st FOB, depending on location. The market FOB Saskatchewan mines was reported at the $470/st level on the low end, with delivered potash pegged in the $510-$520/st range in the region.

Agrium announced new potash postings, effective July 1. The company’s postings FOB Vade, Sask., moved to $480/st for standard and $485/st for premium. Warehouse postings for red premium potash moved to $505/st FOB Grand Forks and Colfax, N.D., and $510/st FOB Shakopee, Minn. Agrium’s postings for rail-delivered red premium potash moved on July 1 to $520/st in Minnesota, Wisconsin, and the Dakotas.

Northeast: Agrium announced new potash postings, effective July 1. Warehouse postings for red premium potash moved to $517/st FOB Lynchburg, Va., and $520/st FOB Mulberry, Fla., and Georgia terminals at Americus, Bainbridge, Savannah, and Tifton.

Agrium’s postings for rail-delivered red premium potash moved on July 1 to $530/st in Alabama, Georgia, Florida, Virginia, the Carolinas, Massachusetts, Connecticut, Rhode Island, Maine, Vermont, New Hampshire, Kentucky, Tennessee, Delaware, Maryland, New Jersey, New York, Pennsylvania, and West Virginia.

Granular potash postings from PCS Sales are slated to firm from $520/st to $540/st FOB Baltimore, Md., on July 21.

Eastern Canada: Potash pricing out of Ontario warehouses had reportedly slipped to $580-$590/mt FOB, with the low for red granular and the upper end for white granular tons.

Sulfate of potash (SOP) was steady at $830/mt FOB in Ontario.

The K-Mag market remained at $495/mt FOB regional warehouses, and was in tight supply in Eastern Canada.

Pacific Northwest:
In the Pacific Northwest, Agrium’s potash postings moved on July 1 to $530/st FOB and $540/st rail-DEL in Southern Idaho, Utah, and Oregon’s Malheur County; $535/st FOB and $545/st rail-DEL in Washington, the Idaho panhandle, and Oregon excluding Malheur County and the Willamette Valley; and $540/st FOB and $550/st rail-DEL in Oregon’s Willamette Valley.

Phosphates

Central Florida: The weather in the eastern U.S. continued to be warm – very warm – but the chance for rain was increasing late last week. Crops in the Northeast had begun to shrivel in the fields due to the hot and dry weather, so they may catch a break.

PotashCorp was in the process last week of bringing its processing facility at White Springs, Fla., back online after it was shut down by flooding and a power outage during Tropical Storm Debby a couple of weeks ago. Production of MAP was expected to begin around July 15 -16, but it will take some time to reach normal levels. In the meantime, the company was shipping some MAP – but not a lot – from product that was not damaged during the storm. The company also experienced a processed water overflow during the storm on June 26, which flowed into the storm water system. The incident was reported to local, state, and federal agencies, although drinking water was apparently not negatively impacted.

Meanwhile, Florida was receiving rain on a nearly daily basis as temperatures hovered near 90, which was normal for the state.

Producer inventories continued to be low, and were projected to remain low at least until September. Regardless, there were few buyers in the Central Florida market last week.

The DAP price range for Central Florida was unchanged last week at a flat $500/st FOB. CF’s posted price was at the $500/st FOB mark, and Mosaic was also at $500/st FOB. MAP continued to sell at a premium of $20/st FOB in comparison to DAP in Central Florida, about the same difference as from traders. PCS Sales, which produces MAP at its White Springs facility in North Florida, was selling at prices comparable to the market.

U.S. Gulf: The crop-killing heat in the Midwest continued last week and the prospects for rain were only minimal, according to the weather service.

As the dire situation stretched out, the USDA issued a revised estimate that reduced its corn yield forecast by roughly 12 percent, and that meant higher prices for whatever corn survives. The agency also lowered the forecast for soybeans. The government lowered its yield projections by 20 bushels an acre for corn, and 3.4 bushels an acre for soybeans.

The USDA report also started a debate in the fertilizer industry over whether it will mean more or less in sales for P&K.

One school of thought believes farmers will buy less because they will have less money. The other thinks the opposite will happen – farmers won’t want to risk reducing their yields, and will put even more phosphate and potash down than normal.

Regardless, the futures market saw it as reason to kick prices higher, and some were saying corn could reach as much as $10/bushel. However, beef and pork producers were moving to get rid of as much stock as possible to avoid having to buy high-priced feed.

Prices for 2012 corn futures surged last week compared to the previous week, rising from $6.915/bushel to $7.215/bushel for December. The corn price for December 2013 was $6.115/bushel, increasing from $6.08/bushel the previous reporting period. For November 2012, soybeans moved up to $15.225/bushel from $15.1275/bushel the previous week, but soybeans for November 2013 decreased to $12.95/bushel from $13.06/bushel a week earlier. Wheat for July 2013 rose to $8.28/bushel from $8.225/bushel the week before, and wheat for July 2014 was listed at $7.7725/bushel last week, down from $8.00/bushel the previous week.

The Southwestern Fertilizer Conference may not provide much in the way of new business. The mood has been very quiet during the past several weeks, and few in the industry seemed willing to make any rash moves.

With Miss Phos back up and running, some additional supply could become available when the fall season starts in Septemb

Ammonium Sulfate

Eastern Cornbelt: Ammonium sulfate was quoted at $395-$400/st FOB in the Eastern Cornbelt region.

Western Cornbelt: Granular ammonium sulfate was quoted by several sources solidly at the $400/st FOB level in early July. Ammonium thiosulfate was pegged at $365-$380/st FOB in the region.

American Plant Food Corp. (APF) announced new ammonium sulfate postings that will take effect July 16. APF’s granular ammonium sulfate postings will drop on that date to $295/st FOB Freeport, Texas; $305/st FOB Galena Park, Texas; $320/st FOB Fort Worth, Texas; $325/st FOB Mermentau, La.; and $330/st FOB Littlefield, Texas. Coarse grade postings will move on July 16 to $280/st FOB Freeport, $290/st FOB Galena Park, $305/st FOB Fort Worth, and $315/st FOB Littlefield, while standard grade ammonium sulfate will be reposted at $275/st FOB Freeport and $310/st FOB Littlefield. APF’s N-Pac Compacted posting will drop on July 16 to $310/st FOB Galena Park.

APF also reported on July 11 that the company is “currently experiencing a temporary reduction” in ammonium sulfate production. “Normal operations are expected to resume shortly, and the interruption should not affect annual volume,” APF said. “However, customers may see some slight delays on orders placed in late July.”

Northern Plains: Effective July 6, Agrium’s granular ammonium sulfate postings moved to $375/st rail-DEL in North Dakota, Minnesota, and Wisconsin. A Minnesota contact said ammonium sulfate fill tons were available for as low as $320/st FOB in early July.

Northeast: Granular ammonium sulfate was unchanged at $405-$413/st DEL in the Northeast region.

Eastern Canada: Granular ammonium sulfate was tagged at $485-$540/mt FOB in Eastern Canada, although sources described the low end of the range as an “old number.” There was minimal new business to test the market.

Pacific Northwest: Agrium’s granular ammonium sulfate postings moved on July 6 to $370/st FOB and $375/st DEL in Washington, Idaho, Oregon, Utah, and Nevada. In Montana and Wyoming, the posting moved to $375/st DEL.

Ammonium Nitrate

U.S. Gulf: The most recent prompt business was called $360/st FOB. However, that was under pressure, with buyers seeking $330-$340/st FOB for the next round of business. While the El Dorado plant is yet to get back to full production, sources said there were imports available.

Western Cornbelt: Ammonium nitrate was pegged at $450-$480/st FOB in the Western Cornbelt region.

California: Agrium’s AN-20 posting in California moved on July 1 to $345/st truck-DEL.

Nitrogen Solutions

U.S. Gulf: UAN barges continued a firm tone, in the $270-$280/st FOB range ($8.44-$8.75/unit), with some skeptical that new seller price ideas of $290/st FOB had been achieved.

Eastern Cornbelt: After the initial phase of UAN fill, sources reported some firming prices last week. UAN-28 fill was quoted at $275-$290/st ($9.82-$10.36/unit) FOB river terminals, and $290-$305/st ($10.36-$10.89/unit) FOB inland. Ohio sources quoted the UAN-28 market at $285-$295/st ($10.18-$10.54/unit) FOB Cincinnati for fill tons shipped in August and September.

CF’s postings for UAN for the July 10-13 order and shipping period moved to $10.00/unit FOB Mt. Vernon, Ind.; $10.50/unit FOB Peru, Ill.; $10.60/unit FOB Cincinnati, Ohio; $10.65/unit FOB Albany, Ill.; $10.70/unit FOB E. Liverpool, Ohio; and $10.85/unit FOB Terra Haute, Ind.

Western Cornbelt: Iowa sources pegged the UAN market in the $10.31-$10.71/unit FOB range, while reference prices for UAN-32 out of Missouri terminals remained as high as $375/st ($11.72/unit) FOB on a spot basis. CF’s postings for UAN for the July 10-13 order and shipping period moved to $10.00/unit FOB St. Louis, Mo., and $11.10/unit FOB Garner, Iowa.

Northern Plains: Minnesota sources pegged the UAN-28 market at $300/st ($10.71/unit) FOB on the low end. CF’s postings for UAN for the July 10-13 order and shipping period moved to $10.95/unit FOB Pine Bend, Minn. In North Dakota, sources reported the last done business for delivered UAN-28 from Canada at the $410/st ($14.64/unit) level, but sources said that was old business, with no firm quotes confirmed for new delivered sales.

Northeast: The UAN-30 market was quoted at $335/st ($11.17/unit) FOB Baltimore, Md. Out of terminals in upstate New York, the UAN-32 market had reportedly slipped to $376/st ($11.75/unit) FOB.

Eastern Canada: Ontario sources pegged the UAN-28 market at $370-$390/mt ($13.21-$13.93/unit) FOB, down slightly from last report.

Urea

U.S. Gulf: Prompt granular business spanned a broad range last week. Sources said prices started in the $430s/st FOB, shot up to $460-$470/st FOB, and then retreated. CF was reportedly seeking as high as $475/st.

One player said the price run up may have been due to buyer panic caused by a limited fill program and a quick and large price increase on the part of one supplier. Early Thursday, barges were reported to have retreated back to the $460/st FOB level; however, others claimed late in the day that price ideas were again back in the $430s/st FOB. Why was still a question, but sources said a fair number of imports are on the horizon in coming months, so the movement this time was in the buyers’ favor.

Sources also pointed to erratic changes in global prices, with the Black Sea shooting up and the Mideast price softening.

Prompt prill barges were reported to now be closer to granular, called $440-$500/st FOB for recent business.

Eastern Cornbelt: The granular urea market in the Eastern Cornbelt was quoted at $465-$500/st FOB regional terminals, down slightly from last report.

Western Cornbelt: Granular urea pricing had reportedly slipped to $480-$500/st FOB regional terminals in the Western Cornbelt, with the low reported in the Missouri market.

Northern Plains: The granular urea market was tagged at $485-$500/st FOB the Twin Cities, although reference prices were as high as $580/st FOB from some suppliers.
No delivered prices were reported in the North Dakota market.

Northeast: The granular urea market remained at $585-$595/st FOB in the Northeast. The nitrogen markets were quiet in the region. “Just like everyone else, we’re looking for fill tons and looking towards FY 2013,” said one contact.

Hot, dry weather continued to stress crops in parts of Pennsylvania and Delmarva, while more favorable conditions were reported in New York and New England.

Eastern Canada: The granular urea market had reportedly fallen to $610-$660/mt FOB in Eastern Canada, depending on location. Fertilizer activity was on the backburner in the region, and inventories were low. “The market is very slow,” said one contact. “Everyone is enjoying summer before the harvest and fall application.”

The region was blanketed with record-setting heat during the first days of July. On July 6, 11 daily heat records were set in Ontario, and record heat was also reported in Montreal.

Heat and drought stress was reported on corn crops in southwestern Ontario. Some 7 percent of Ontario farmland has received record low precipitation since April 1, with some of the worst fields reported around London, Guelph, and Kitchener.

Crop conditions in the Maritimes were described in favorable terms in early July, with crop development running about two weeks ahead of normal in Nova Scotia.

California: Effective July 1, Agrium’s granular urea postings in California moved to $580/st FOB West Sacramento; $590/st FOB Hanford and Richvale; $615/st truck-DEL in Central California; $625/st truck-DEL in Northern California; and $635/st truck-DEL in desert areas of California.

Pakistan: The TCP tender closed July 12 with prices up a tick from the previous tender. Sources said they were surprised that the price did not go up more.

The results of the tender came out after IPL/India announced it would close a tender July 14. The million or so tons that IPL is expected to take caused a number of players to begin taking positions with cargoes from Yuzhnyy to Indonesia and running up the price.

The tally of the TCP tender follows.

Ammonia

U.S. Gulf/Tampa: The markets remained quiet last week, with Tampa continuing to be called $690-$710/mt DEL and NOLA $655/st FOB.

Eastern Cornbelt: The anhydrous ammonia market was steady at $700-$735/st FOB in the region.

The intense heat of late June and early July had eased somewhat in the region, but the Eastern Cornbelt was in the throes of a rapidly worsening drought at mid-month. “It seems as though, for the most part, everybody needs rain, and growers are being very cautious on future decisions,” said one source.

USDA reported that 60-77 percent of the corn acres in Indiana and Illinois were silking by July 8, along with 41 percent of the corn crop in Ohio. Crop development was well ahead of the five-year average, but crop quality was falling quickly in the region. Only 28 percent of Ohio’s corn was rated as good or excellent last week, and it was the garden spot of the region. Good or excellent ratings were assigned to only 19 percent of the corn acres in Illinois and 12 percent in Indiana.

Corn in the poor or very poor categories, however, totaled fully 61 percent of Indiana’s crop, compared with 41-48 percent in Ohio and Illinois.

As for soybeans, 36-44 percent of the regional crop was blooming by July 8, with good or excellent ratings assigned to 27 percent of the crop in Ohio, 20 percent in Illinois, and 14 percent in Indiana. Soybeans rated as poor or very poor totaled 51 percent of the crop in Indiana, 42 percent in Illinois, and 36 percent in Ohio.

Western Cornbelt: The anhydrous ammonia market was quoted at $650-$700/st FOB, with delivered tons pegged at $680-$690/st in central Missouri. Effective July 1, Agrium’s anhydrous ammonia postings moved up to $750/st FOB Iowa terminals at Garner, Early, and Whiting; $745/st FOB Greenwood, Neb.; $740/st FOB Hoag, Neb.; $735/st FOB Clay Center, Kan.; $730/st FOB Conway, Kan.; $725/st FOB Mocane, Okla.; and $685/st FOB Borger, Texas.

Heat and drought continued to take a toll on the region’s corn and soybean crops, and drought conditions were expanding in the Western Cornbelt. Crop conditions were rapidly deteriorating as the corn enters pollination.

Fully 75 percent of the Missouri corn crop was silking by July 8, compared with 48-50 percent in Iowa and Nebraska. Just 12 percent of Missouri’s corn was rated as good or excellent last week, with fully 60 percent of the acreage in the poor or very poor categories. In Iowa and Nebraska, 46-47 percent of the corn was rated as good or excellent last week, down 9-16 percentage points from the previous week.

Soybean conditions were similar in the region, with good or excellent ratings assigned to 48 percent of Iowa’s crop, 41 percent in Nebraska, and just 13 percent in Missouri. USDA placed 54 percent of Missouri’s soybean crop in the poor or very poor categories last week. As for cotton, only 17 percent of Missouri’s crop was rated as good or excellent, with 42 percent labeled as poor or very poor. Missouri’s rice crop was 4 percent headed by July 8, with 72 percent of the acreage rated as good or excellent.

Northern Plains: The anhydrous ammonia market had reportedly firmed to $675-$720/st FOB Minnesota terminals, with delivered ammonia fill tons quoted at $715-$750/st in the North Dakota market, depending on supplier. Fill tons FOB Murdock, N.D., were quoted at the $730/t FOB level in early July.

Effective July 1, Agrium’s anhydrous ammonia posting FOB Mankato, Minn., moved to $750/st.

Dry weather settled over the Northern Plains in early July, just as corn crops in the region were tasseling and beginning pollination. Crop conditions remained favorable in the region last week, however, in spite of the dry conditions.