After getting a five-year break since one of the worst hurricane seasons ever in 2005, Florida – and everywhere else, from North Carolina to Texas – could see something even worse, according to hurricane forecasters.
Justin Roberti of Accuweather said the estimate of 16 to 18 tropical storms for the season, which begins June 1 and runs through the end of November, may be one of the most active in the 160 years of record keeping. Of the storms that are expected to form, seven are predicted to hit the U.S. mainland, and five of those could reach hurricane strength. To make matters worse, the hurricanes that do form will probably be stronger than in recent years.
Hurricanes are classified on the Saffir-Simpson Wind Scale. A storm is declared a hurricane when sustained winds reach 74 mph, which is a category one, with relatively light damage. When sustained winds reach 96 mph it becomes a category two storm, with an increased amount of damage. Damage becomes devastating in a category three hurricane, which starts at 111 mph. By the time a storm reaches category four status of 131 mph, potential damage is catastrophic. At 155 mph or higher, a category five storm would be capable of blowing apart most frame buildings. A hurricane becomes a major threat to property and people at category three or better.
For buildings and people on the coast, storm surge is often the greatest threat. How severe the surge will be is dependent on not only the power of the storm, but also how deep the water is off the shoreline. The deeper the water protecting the coast, the lower the height of the surge. A surge from the Atlantic side would be less of a threat than on the Gulf side.
Two factors were cited by Roberti for the unusually strong forecast, “The end of the El Nino effect and warmer than usual temperatures in the Gulf of Mexico,” he said. “The Gulf is rapidly warming to where it is essentially normal or above normal, and we expect it to be warmer than average this year.”
Although El Nino is not helpful in some parts of the world – such as Peru, where fishing is negatively affected – it tends to force storms north into the Atlantic before they reach the Gulf or the Caribbean and threaten the U.S.
For the phosphate industry, hurricanes pose a threat to mining and production in Central Florida, and to their supply of sulfur from other Gulf Coast states. Storms and hurricanes in 2004 and 2005 caused production problems in Florida, one of which occurred at the phosphate processing plant near Riverview, south of Tampa. The plant, now owned by The Mosaic Co., suffered a breach in the wall of a containment system at the phosphogypsum stack.
Mississippi Phosphates Corp.’s plant in Pascagoula, Miss., was idled by hurricanes in 1985, 1998, and 2005 (GM Sept. 5, 2005). In the latter, with Hurricane Katrina, it went down Aug. 29, 2005, and didn’t restart its DAP plant until February 2006 (GM Feb. 6, 2006).
In addition, hurricanes have forced NOLA area nitrogen producers to take their plants down as a precaution.
Another potential problem is the spill at BP’s well site in the Gulf near Louisiana, which is already a major disaster. Roberti said that the impact of a storm would depend on the location of the storm’s center.
“There could be a wide range of impacts, if it crossed that (oil spill) area,” he said. “It remains to be seen. If it moves toward the coast it will spread to the south. If it is on the west, there is a greater chance of being pushed toward the U.S. coast, and more oil could come ashore.”
The most active period will probably be in August and September, with September considered the peak hurricane month, Roberti said. However, the threat is greatest at different times for different areas. The West Coast of the Florida Peninsula rarely takes a direct hit from a hurricane during most of the season, except in October, when the wind
currents shift. Hurricane Charlie, which hit Port Charlotte in 2004, was an exception.
Officials say their biggest concern is the short-term memory of the public. After not having a major storm for five years precautions tend to be forgotten, which increases the risk of injury and major property damage.