Representatives from more than 80 companies in the U.S. and overseas tuned in March 4 to the Green Markets 2009 Agriculture & Fertilizer Outlook audio conference. The event was the fourth annual spring outlook conference sponsored by Green Markets, and its most successful to date.
The interactive event allowed registrants to tune in via telephone and computer to hear three industry experts talk about a range of issues, detailed on more than 50 graphs and slides, including the latest planting estimates for 2009; factors behind the wild swings in fertilizer pricing in 2008 and early 2009; and long-range forecasts for acreage and fertilizer pricing/supply.
Dr. Gerald Bange, chairman of the World Outlook Board for USDA, kicked off the event with a look at the most recent acreage estimates for major crops in 2009 and beyond. Bange said USDA is estimating U.S. corn acreage for 2008/09 at 86 million acres, and likely to remain at that level for the 2009/10 crop year. Soybeans are projected at 75.7 million acres in 2008/09 and expected to jump 1.7 percent to 77 million acres in 2009/10. Wheat acreage is estimated at 63.1 million acres in 2008/09 and projected to drop more than 8 percent to 58 million acres in 2009/10. Dr. Bange estimated all U.S. cotton acreage for 2008/09 at 9.5 million acres, dropping more than 10 percent to 8.5 million acres in 2009/10.
Total planted area for the eight major crops (wheat, corn, sorghum, barley, oats, soybeans, upland cotton, and rice) is projected to total 248 million acres in 2009 – identical to 2007, but down from last year’s 253 million acres.
Dr. Bange also offered in-depth supply/demand figures for the next two crop years for corn, soybeans, wheat, and cotton, as well as detailed observations about the effect of the Renewable Fuels Standard on future corn/ soybeans acreage and ethanol/biodiesel production through 2017/18.
Tom Blue, senior fertilizer industry consultant for Blue, Johnson and Associates, offered his own acreage estimates for 2009 for corn, soybeans, wheat, cotton, and other grains, and also detailed expected nutrient demand and usage estimates for nitrogen, phosphates, and potash for the 2009 spring planting season. Ammonia and UAN supplies could approach “adequate” volumes via imports and operating rates, he said, while high producer stocks of DAP, MAP, and potash will be “drawn down” due to large production curtailments, in spite of weak domestic purchases.
Timothy Chrislip, director of product management and business development for CHS Crop Nutrients, concluded the event by providing answers to key questions pressing the industry: how did fertilizer prices get so high and fall so fast, and where are they going from here? Chrislip gave an overview of the factors driving both the pricing increase and the subsequent fall in 2008, and also provided a detailed outlook for nitrogen, phosphate, and potash pricing going forward.