AMMONIA
U.S. Gulf/Tampa: The Tampa market appears to be somewhere within the $275-$280/mt DEL range. Major players settled first half July at the $280/mt DEL mark last week, with second half July settled at $275/mt DEL. In the meantime, sources reported that Mosaic bought an August spot cargo at the $275/mt DEL number.
Over at NOLA, the range continues at $242-$245/st FOB, though there were unconfirmed reports that new business may have been concluded in the $230s/st FOB. Sellers were reportedly unsuccessful at getting new business at higher or current numbers, enhancing speculation that the lower numbers may have been done. Likewise, natural gas prices, which have been trending below $6.00/mmBtu for the forward month, lend weight that NOLA ammonia could still drop some more. Those gas prices were back up this past week, with August settling at $6.129/mmBtu on July 13. Growing unrest in the Middle East was given as a major reason for energy price increases last week, particularly Israel’s attacks on Hezbollah in Lebanon.
Eastern Cornbelt: Anhydrous ammonia was down $5/st FOB at Meredosia, Ill., to $330/st FOB last week. An ammonia seller said dealers were not buying at this time because of concerns about theft from their tanks. The regional range was pegged at $330-$340/st FOB.
Western Cornbelt: Anhydrous ammonia was said to be flat at $320-$330/st FOB in Iowa.
Northern Plains: With the season pretty much over, at least for fertilizer dealers, there was little movement of any significance in the region, and prices were essentially flat. Sidedressing with ammonia and UAN was finished in the region. Anhydrous ammonia spot pricing was quoted at $315-$335/st FOB in the region, down from last report. In the Dakotas, ammonia pricing was pegged at $335/st FOB Grand Forks and $365/st DEL.
Eastern Canada: Ammonia was quoted by Ontario sources at $410-$430/mt FOB last week.
UREA
U.S. Gulf: The prompt granular barge market literally took off last week, with sources reporting a quick uptick throughout the week. The market was put at $205-$215/st FOB, with sellers quoting product at $220/st FOB by late Thursday.
Sellers gave several reasons for the increase. One major reason was simply a lack of product, with a pick up in demand. They said all of those excess imports were sold or exported out of the market. Likewise, CF exported cargoes as well and allotted tons for its major customers – i.e., former owners. Sources reported that CF was sold out into October.
There were also unconfirmed reports that Koch had opted to take its Enid, Okla., facility down for a turnaround and was in the market to cover obligations. Others said there may be problems getting barges up the Arkansas River due to lock repairs in the near term, so buyers are anxious to locate barges while they can. Sellers also claimed seasonal demand for wheat is picking up, with better wheat prices. They said phosphates are also seeing this increased demand from wheat country.
Not everyone was on the higher price bandwagon. Some buyers have downplayed the demand from wheat country and claimed the higher prices were trader-to-trader speculation. One player said such trader business may have been the case when the market was around $200/st FOB, but said the current spike is based on real demand.
Sellers note that most imports will not start to make it into NOLA until September. One Sabic cargo has reportedly been delayed due to slower-than-expected startup of Safco 4. A ConAgra vessel is reportedly due in August, with some of that already sold at $185/st FOB and expectations that the remainder may go to inland ConAgra locations.
Long-term, buyers are hoping that new plants coming up over the next year will significantly alter the demand/supply scenario.
Eastern Cornbelt: Granular urea was unchanged at $235-$245/st FOB. The dealer market FOB Cincinnati, Ohio, was $240/st FOB.
Western Cornbelt: Urea was unchanged at $235-$245/st FOB. Although barge pricing was said to be firming at the Gulf, terminal pricing remained flat, due in part to an overabundance of tons in some locations. There were unconfirmed reports that a turnaround was in effect at Enid, Okla., with urea pricing there now reportedly at the $240/st FOB level.
Northern Plains: Urea was $235-$240/st DEL and $230-$235/st FOB in the region.
Northeast: Granular urea was tagged at $265/st FOB E. Liverpool, Ohio, and $270/st FOB Philadelphia, Pa.
Eastern Canada: Granular urea was tagged at $395-$420/mt FOB in the region.
Bangladesh: BCIC recently issued tenders for import of 100,000 mt each of prilled and granular urea separately. Bids are due on Aug. 3.
NITROGEN SOLUTIONS
U.S. Gulf: Many speculated that UAN barge numbers would start to follow urea upward, with sellers generally being bullish. However, there were no firm reports of new business last week.
Agriliance is reportedly offering a fall fill program for UAN-32 FOB NOLA, with barges at $152.50/st for pickup Oct. 1 through Oct. 31. Rail tons were at $153.80/st FOB NOLA for the same period.
Like urea, sources were saying CF was sold out into October.
Eastern Cornbelt: UAN remained at $5.30-$5.75/unit FOB, with the lower numbers out of Illinois River locations. The dealer price for UAN-28 was pegged at $161/st ($5.75/unit) FOB Cincinnati.
Western Cornbelt: UAN pricing was quoted at $5.25-$5.70/unit FOB regional terminals, up just slightly from last report.
Northern Plains: UAN was said to be selling for $5.50-$5.75/unit FOB regional terminals.
Northeast: UAN-30 was quoted at $179-$180/st ($5.97-$6.00/unit) FOB Baltimore, Md., and Philadelphia. The UAN-32 market out of terminals in upstate New York was tagged at $208/st ($6.50/unit) FOB, down slightly from last report.
Eastern Canada: UAN-28 remained at $256-$265/mt ($9.14-$9.46/unit) FOB terminals.
AMMONIUM NITRATE
U.S. Gulf: No changes were reported to the barge market, which was called quiet. Sources continued to put product in the $195-$202/st FOB range.
Western Cornbelt: Ammonium nitrate was unchanged at $255-$260/st FOB.
AMMONIUM SULFATE
Eastern Cornbelt: Granular ammonium sulfate was steady at $150-$152/st FOB.
Western Cornbelt: Granular ammonium sulfate was $150-$155/st FOB and $155/st DEL in the region.
Northern Plains: Ammonium sulfate was put at $150-$155/st FOB and $155/st DEL in the region.
Northeast: Granular ammonium sulfate remained at $137-$150/st FOB, with the low at Hopewell, Va., and the high at Philadelphia. Delivered ammonium sulfate was $155-$175/st in the region, depending on location.
Eastern Canada: Ammonium sulfate was unchanged at $280-$290/mt FOB in the region.
Pacific Northwest: Agrium has posted granular product at $175/st FOB warehouse and $180/st DEL.
PHOSPHATES
Central Florida: The Central Florida DAP market remained extremely slow in terms of new business, but producers were keeping busy loading vessels for export and under existing contracts. However, most believe any serious increase in domestic activity will not occur for another two-to-six weeks. Most terminals it serves already have some supplies, and will not likely reorder until those become depleted. When that will happen depends on when the fall season actually gets into gear. The small amount of new sales that were done last week were at the bottom end of the range.
CSX Transportation’s freight rate increase of about $2/st will begin on Sept. 1, so expect somewhat more in the way of new sales to occur in August, before the higher rate kicks in.
The Central Florida DAP price range last week remained at $223-$227/st FOB. Mosaic’s posted price remained at $235/st FOB, and CF’s posted price was $227/st FOB. Prices do not include discounts; however, some large buyers can obtain a lower price without a discount from some producers. CF was said to be selling DAP as low as $223/st FOB. Mosaic discounts MAP $4/st from the price of DAP, while CF has no price difference. PotashCorp’s Central Florida reference price remained at $245/st FOB. In Texas, Agrifos’ prices were unchanged at $255/st FOB for DAP and $261/st FOB for MAP.
U.S. Gulf: New NOLA DAP barge sales continued to move like stagnant water last week, but it was more active than Central Florida. Traders said they had enough of a supply of phosphate products on hand to begin the fall season, but were not reordering because of a lack of demand. However, one noted that there appeared to be fewer DAP barges on the river, and less fleeting, than in past weeks. While a few barges were available at the bottom end of the range last week, more were actually sold above the previous week’s high end of the range. That could be an indication that those who purchased barges and were sitting on them could be finally getting out from under, even with low demand.
Producers said they were receiving more inquiries than in past weeks, although that has yet to translate into a multitude of new sales. The fall season will begin earliest at locations along the Arkansas River, but terminals will want their existing stocks depleted, or in the process, before reordering.
Watch for barges on the lower end of last week’s range begin to disappear this week. Based on spot sales last week, the NOLA DAP barge price range changed from $228-$230/st FOB the previous week to $228-$233/st FOB.
Eastern Cornbelt: DAP was $263-$276/st FOB regional terminals, and MAP was quoted at $262-$273/st FOB, with the low on the river system and the upper numbers inland. TSP remained at a nominal $233-$240/st FOB, and 10-34-0 was quoted at $265-$275/st FOB in the region.
Western Cornbelt: DAP and MAP remained at $265-$275/st FOB in the region, while TSP was an untested $235-$240/st FOB. 10-34-0 pricing was steady at $265-$275/st FOB.
Northern Plains: DAP remained at $270-$275/st FOB the Twin Cities and Winona, Minn., with MAP quoted at $268-$274/st FOB. No current numbers were reported for 10-34-0 in the region.
Northeast: DAP and MAP remained at $275-$280/st FOB. The 10-34-0 market in upstate New York was quoted at $265/st FOB and about $15/st more delivered.
Eastern Canada: DAP was $384-$395/mt FOB in Ontario. MAP remained at $374-$390/mt FOB in the region, and TSP was quoted at $341-$343/mt FOB in southern Ontario.
Pacific Northwest: Agrium has announced a summer fill program for MAP and APS, effective July 12. MAP is offered at $310/st FOB warehouse Washington, North Idaho, and Oregon (except for Malheur County), while APS is $240/st. The two are delivered into that area at $315/st and $245/st, respectively. In other areas of the region, MAP is offered at $305-$310/st DEL and APS at $240/st DEL.
U.S. Export: The export DAP market continues to be the dim light in a dark room, meaning at least it continues to show signs of life. Last week, PhosChem made multiple sales of DAP and MAP to various customers in Central and South America – a total of 33,000 mt at $260/mt FOB. The actual delivered prices were about the same, but higher freight rates have cut into the FOB price.
As of late last week, India had not awarded contracts based on several new tenders it recently issued, which total about 300,000 mt. Both India and Pakistan were apparently poised to make additional phosphate buys within the new few weeks.
The higher freight rates continued to reduce FOB prices for U.S. producers. The previous week’s DAP price range was $261-$263/mt FOB, but slipped slightly to $260-$263/mt FOB as a result of the higher delivery charges.
Bangladesh: Bangladesh Agriculture Development Corp (BADC) plans to import 200,000 mt of TSP during 2006-07 (July-June). The Bangladesh government has asked the authority to again import product after a gap of 16 years. BADC is expected to issue a tender for 50,000 mt soon.
POTASH
Eastern Cornbelt: Potash was quoted at $200-$207/st FOB regional warehouses, depending on grade and location.
Western Cornbelt: Rumors that new pricing for potash would soon be available, and possibly a decline of about $10/st FOB, could not be confirmed. At warehouses, potash was selling at $202-$205/st FOB in Iowa. The low end of the range remained in the mid-$190s/st FOB St. Louis, Mo.
Northern Plains: Potash remained at $178-$183/st FOB Saskatchewan mines, depending on grade. Delivered potash was tagged at roughly $203-$213/st in the region.
Northeast: Potash was reported in a broad range at $217-$248/st DEL, depending on grade and location, with the upper end reported for delivered soluble tons on a spot basis. Red potash FOB E. Liverpool was quoted at $217/st last week.
Eastern Canada: Potash remained at $260-$266/mt FOB New Brunswick mines, and $301/mt rail-DEL or FOB warehouses in Ontario and Quebec.
Bangladesh: BADC is expected to import 100,000 mt of MOP during 2006-07 (July-June). BADC is expected to issue a 50,000 mt tender soon.
India: Indian officials were in Belarus last week to discuss trade, including potash.
SULFUR
Tampa: Negotiations for third quarter sulfur contract prices were still underway last week, and phosphate producers were continuing their push for another decrease, which may be as much as $5/lt. Although there was no glut of supply in the gulf, the world market continues to flounder.
Vancouver: Prices have been deteriorating, largely due to freight costs, which continue to rise. Last week, both spot and new contract prices were found below $50/lt, down to $48/lt on an FOB basis. Phosphate producers look at that as a signal that prices for the Gulf market should go down. One sulfur supplier said that if U.S. phosphate producers cannot purchase sulfur at or below what the product costs North African producers, they would be at a competitive disadvantage and may be forced to cut production, which would not be good for the sulfur interests.
West Coast: Contracts will be settled by next week and will likely go down, but by how much was not clear.
India: FACT has announced a tender for 3 lots of 15,000 mt for arrival Cochin during Aug. 11-15, Aug. 29-Sept. 2, and Sept. 25-29. The tender closes July 18, and offers are to remain valid through July 25.
MARKET NOTES
U.S.: Agrium says fuel surcharges to several states will be increasing, effective with loads shipped July 11 going forward. There are fuel charges of 22.5 percent for Iowa, the Dakotas, Nebraska, Minnesota, Oklahoma, Missouri, Kansas, and Wisconsin. Fuel charges are 22 percent for Texas and New Mexico.
Saudi Arabia: Saudi Arabian Mining Co. (Maaden) has reportedly awarded a $240 million contract to Dragados Industrial SA, to construct four ammonium phosphate plants. The plants would produce 9,000 mt/d of DAP.