AMMONIA
U.S. Gulf/Tampa: There was no change to NOLA or Tampa prices last week, leaving the last done at $300/st FOB and $322/mt DEL, respectively.
At NOLA, producers saw an increase in natural gas prices last week, with suggestion that gas was following oil – which is nearing $100 per barrel. In the meantime, gas prices are also rising in Europe, so much so that sources were saying that European ammonia production may be shut down in favor of imports during November and December, if not beyond.
Eastern Cornbelt: Fall ammonia applications were starting to roll in parts of the region in late October, thanks to cooler temperatures and generally dry soil conditions. The spot ammonia market was pegged at $515-$525/st FOB, with reports of spring prepay on the table from some suppliers at the $530/st FOB level or higher.
Western Cornbelt: Sources said tillage activities were picking up steam last week after rain delays earlier in the month, and fall ammonia movement had officially kicked off in parts of the region. One Iowa source said that was ahead of normal in his territory, but dealers and growers are thankful for the lead time. Most are counting on a full fall application schedule to take some of the pressure off of spring demand.
Sources quoted the regional ammonia market in a very broad range last week at $490-$520/st FOB, with the low reported in Nebraska for spot tons. Iowa sources reported the upper numbers to dealers, with reports of spring prepay being offered for as high as $530/st FOB.
Southern Plains: The anhydrous ammonia market was quoted at $420/st FOB regional production points for spot tons, with reports of spring prepay being offered at some of those locations for $450/st FOB. Spot ammonia pricing was higher out of pipeline terminals in the region, with the dealer market pegged as high as $460-$470/st FOB in Kansas. Those levels were up considerably from last report.
South Central: Ammonia pricing was up in the region, with the terminal market pegged at $460-$490/st FOB to the dealer. The upper end was reported FOB Henderson, Ky.
Black Sea: Sources in Asia report the KIP was lowered to $240/mt FOB. This report follows on the heels of a persistent rumor that a $250/mt FOB deal was done in the last half of October. Without confirmation of the deal and in the absence of any new spot business to nail down a price, Asian buyers and traders are holding to the view that the Yuzhnyy market is holding steady at $254-$260/mt FOB.
As winter approaches, sources say the freight rate should be getting higher as vessel availability tightens. Traditionally this time of year, ammonia traders and customers face fierce competition for vessels from LNG and LPG handlers. At the same time vessels become more difficult to come by, Turkey maintains its restriction on ammonia carriers through the Bosporus Straits.
The Turks allow the ships through only during daylight hours and only one at a time. With winter comes fewer daylight hours and fewer opportunities to transit out of the Black Sea.
Sources also report that the cost of producing ammonia in Europe could lead to shutdowns or cutbacks in the continent’s ammonia production operations. Demand for ammonia, however, is not slackening. Sources expect to see increased demand from Europe applied to Baltic and Black Sea sources.
Middle East: Supplies are tight in the region, with reportedly only one cargo available for loading. Sources say Sabic is firm in its offer of $265/mt FOB for its spot cargo. As of late last week, buyers were equally firm in their refusal to pay $10-$20/mt more than the last recorded spot price. Time, however, seems to be on Sabic’s side, say sources.
Next week two major sources of ammonia in Qatar and Iran are slated for turnarounds. And KPA/Mitsui in Indonesia is already down for routine maintenance. For an ammonia-hungry world, the absence of these major suppliers could push the Middle East price up. Sources report Mitsui exercised all its contracts and options with Middle East producers to ensure the customers normally served by KPA will be fully covered. Reportedly, Mitsubishi has done the same thing in anticipation of its KPI plant going down at the end of the month.
All in all, the Middle East producers are not desperate to sell.
Oddly enough for October and November, buyers don’t seem to be in dire straits, either.
Indian business remains brisk. The material shipped is primarily under contracts worked out a long time ago.
Last year at this time the Safco IV plant was just coming up after months of start-up glitches. Indian buyers were depending on those tons and had to go to the spot market to make up for what was not coming out of Safco.
Now the producer is running smoothly, as are other suppliers. India is on its way to record-high ammonia purchases this year despite the limited number of spot tenders it has called.
Asian buyers also remain keen to keep their downstream customers satisfied.
The crunch will come, say sources, once all the turnarounds kick in. Those with long-term contracts will have the contracts honored, but at slightly higher prices.
The dwindling number of buyers who depend on spot purchases will find themselves in trouble.
Besides the turnarounds, sources say the continued problems of getting IPCC #3 up and running will add to the woes of spot buyers. Sources say those who had planned on the IPCC tons are beginning to look longingly at the Sabic tons, but still balk at the high price.
For now, Asian sources peg the Middle East market at $250-$255/mt FOB, with every likelihood the Saudis will get their way with pricing in the next week or so.
Asia: In anticipation of major turnarounds in the Middle East and Indonesia during the next two months, buyers worked with their trading agents to secure shipments from alternative sources. The activity left precious few tons available for spot business or for a firm to exercise an option for additional tons.
Mitsui has taken down its KPA plant for a scheduled turnaround; it is slated to be down through the month. Just as KPA is scheduled to come back on line, Mitsubishi will take its KPI facility down. Both companies went out to secure tons from other sources to ensure their customers are not left to the tender mercies of an ever-tightening spot market.
Ammonia demand in the region is picking up, largely because of China’s increasing needs. Improved port facilities all along the eastern and southern coasts of China signal the growing needs of China’s industrial engine. More and more tons are moving into China from the Black Sea and any other source that can be found. China now finds itself trying to secure as many long-term contracts as possible in an ever-tightening market.
Japanese buyers are reportedly in good shape despite the upcoming dearth of tons in Asia.
Previously, the local producers tried to take advantage of rising international prices, only to find that some buyers preferred to take imported tons instead of the homegrown variety.
To prevent a repeat of last year, the producers priced their product independently of the global market. Sources say the action resulted in marginally lower costs to the buyers.
UREA
U.S. Gulf: The granular urea market saw quite a rally last week, with prices moving up throughout the week. Early in the week, sources reported that business was done at $360-$365/st FOB; however, by week’s end most were putting the market within the $370-$375/st FOB range. By Friday, sources reported product was $376-$378/st FOB.
Why the rapid increase? Sources cited a few factors. They said that once product was priced off on one particular import vessel not much was left to sell, causing those holding any tons to demand more. In addition, word also quickly came leading into this past week of huge amounts of Indian buying. And it was Indian buying at higher prices. Sources said this heavy buying for India meant less product would be available for the U.S. in the near term. Others suggested that forward prices have been so high that it was economic to buy now and hold the product until later.
In the meantime, prills were reported within the $360-$370/st FOB range.
Eastern Cornbelt: Granular urea was quoted at $395-$405/st FOB in the region, up from last report, although sources reported little new business to test the market.
Western Cornbelt: Granular urea was quoted in a broad range at $390-$410/st FOB, with the low reported by Iowa sources out of spot river locations and the upper end reflecting dealer pricing FOB St. Joseph, Mo. Agrium’s granular urea postings firmed on Nov. 2 to $425/st FOB Shakopee, Minn., and North Dakota terminals at Alton, Carrington, Colfax, Marion, and Scranton. The company’s rail-DEL urea postings moved on that date to $430/st in Wisconsin, Minnesota, and the Dakotas.
Southern Plains: Urea pricing ideas covered a wide range last week, with reports of some spot sales at older levels while higher numbers take effect. Several sources quoted the Tulsa, Okla., market at $380-$390/st FOB, with reports that the lower priced tonnage was rapidly disappearing. There were even claims of netbacks bringing the Arkansas River terminal market to as low as $375/st FOB for spot sales, but that was the exception. Other sources confirmed urea sales for as high as $395/st FOB Catoosa, Okla., as the week advanced, with expectations of higher postings going forward.
South Central: The granular urea market was pegged at $385-$395/st FOB regional terminals to dealers, with the upper end reflecting dealer reference pricing FOB Vicksburg, Miss.
Southeast: The granular urea market was tagged at $400-$410/st FOB port terminals in the region. Sources said that range reflected a $10-$15/st increase from the previous week. The dealer reference price FOB Baltimore, Md., had reportedly firmed to the $420/st level, and sources quoted rail-DEL urea as high as $430/st in the Northeast region last week.
Western U.S.: Agrium’s granular urea postings firmed on Nov. 2 to $425-$440/st DEL in Montana and Wyoming, depending on location; $450/st FOB Washington warehouse locations at Glade, Kennewick, Warden, and Wilson; $455/st DEL in Idaho, Oregon, Washington, and northern Nevada; $465/st DEL in northern and central Utah; and $470/st DEL in southern Utah.
India: The MMTC tender confirmed what the previous IPL tender indicated: Indian buyers are willing to pay more than $375/mt CFR.
The steady drumbeat of need has kept the urea market moving upward for the past few months. Even the presence of Chinese urea has not been able to stem the steady increases Indian buyers have had to face as each new tender closes.
Higher prices in this tender surprised no one. Only about 600,000 mt was offered in the IPL tender, indicating a growing tightness of availability.
This tender shows about 650,000 mt for under $380/mt CFR. One observer noted that keeping the price below that level is about the only victory MMTC could claim. Offers follow.
| Offering Company | Source | Qty ‘000 mt | US$/mt | Comments | |
| FOB | CFR | ||||
| Helm | Open | 100 | 366.45 | Nov-Dec 7-8 lots | |
| 60 | 369.45 | ||||
| 50-60 | 379.00 | In 2 lots | |||
| Ameropa | Open | 50 | 375.00 | Nov- Dec In 2 lots | |
| 373.50 | Nov. | ||||
| 379.50 | S.O. | ||||
| Transammonia | China | 150 | 374.00 | Nov-Dec. 3-4 lots | |
| 379.00 | |||||
| Toepfer | China | 20-25 | 375.00 | Nov. – Dec. | |
| 20-25 | 376.00 | S.O. | |||
| Open | 50-58 | 415.00 | Dec. – Jan. 2008 | ||
| IMR | China | 25 | 376.00 | Mid-Dec. | |
| CIFC | Open | 20-25 | 376.00 | Nov. – Dec. | |
| 378.00 | |||||
| 384.75 | |||||
| KIT | Open | 50 | 378.75 | Dec. In 2 lots | |
| 20-25 | S.O. Mid-Dec. | ||||
| Sabic | Saudi Arabia | 25 | 345.00 | Nov. | |
| 25 | 368.00 | Dec. | |||
| Fertil | UAE | 20 | 365.00 | Dec. – Jan. 2008 | |
| 20-25 | 369.00 | Jan. 2008 | |||
| QAFCO | Qatar | 20-25 | 365.00 | Nov. | |
| 25 | 370.00 | Dec. | |||
| PIC | Kuwait | 25 | 365.00 | S.O. Dec-Jan 2008 | |
| 25 | 370.00 | S.O. Dec-Jan 2008 | |||
Leading up to the tender, sources report MMTC has secured handshake deals with a number of suppliers. All told, 435,000 mt were included in those deals that the tender verified.
The companies who were part of the pre-tender deal are: Helm @ 160,000 mt; Ameropa @ 50,000 mt; Transammonia @ 150,000 mt; Toepfer @ 50,000 mt; and Sabic @ 25,000 mt. Awards are expected by Nov. 8.
Sources say chances are another tender will be called within the next week or so.
The tender will be needed, because even if all the sub$380/mt CFR material is snapped up, India will still need another 300,000 mt or so by the end of the year.
Black Sea: Sources peg the market at $350-$355/mt FOB. Sources report $353/mt FOB was done for a full cargo. Producers are now saying they will only start talks with buyers willing to pay $360/mt FOB. Industry observers figure that number will be reached by the end of the week.
As prices steadily increase, sources say opportunities to sell to India reduce. With India taking most of the Middle East tons and large portions of the Chinese export output, the Yuzhnyy players have no competition in other major markets.
The support for the prices seems to be coming from Turkey and Latin America.
Middle East: Prices offered in the India tender at first appeared to indicate an attempt to create a premium for granular material. Upon closer look, however, sources dismissed that idea. Offers from $345-$370/mt FOB are a better reflection of the market tightening from November into January. The January tons especially will be more expensive, because Chinese urea will become more expensive if producers maintain their ex-plant prices.
Sources say the $345/mt FOB reflects the pre-tender price that will disappear as soon as the pre-tender Fertil and Sabic tender cargoes are loaded.
The area producers have been trying to raise prices for the past couple of months. Their attempts in the past, however, were seen as too much too soon.
On the heels of the strong IPL prices, producers saw their opportunity to push for higher prices for January tons, with steady increases along the way.
Prill and granular remain at parity, with sources now pegging the upper end of the offers in the MMTC tender, $365-$370/mt FOB.
NITROGEN SOLUTIONS
U.S. Gulf: Barge prices continued to move up last week, with most sources reporting a firm $295/st FOB to higher as the week progressed. Higher import numbers were cited.
Eastern Cornbelt: UAN-32 remained in a broad range at $310-$323.20/st ($9.69-$10.10/unit) FOB regional terminals, with the upper end reflecting dealer reference levels.
Western Cornbelt: UAN-32 was quoted in a broad range at $305-$320/st ($9.53-$10.00/unit) FOB terminals. The dealer market FOB Bigelow, Mo., was pegged at the $307/st ($9.59/unit) mark for spot tons last week, while Iowa sources talked of spring prepay offers at the $10.00/unit FOB level.
Southern Plains: UAN pricing covered a wide range in the region. The UAN-32 market was generally quoted at $295-$305/st ($9.22-$9.53/unit) FOB terminals for allocated spot tons, with some sources pegging the top of the range at the $270/st ($9.64/unit) FOB level for UAN-28. There were also unconfirmed reports of problems at one regional production facility last week, which was further tightening UAN supply.
South Central: UAN-32 was up slightly at $300-$310/st ($9.38-$9.69/unit) FOB regional terminals to the dealer.
Southeast: UAN-30 was quoted at $275-$280/st ($9.17-$9.33/unit) Norfolk, Va., and Wilmington, N.C. Some sources claimed $270/st ($9.00/unit) FOB could still be had out of port terminals, but others said reference levels had moved to as high as $285/st ($9.50/unit) FOB, with additional increases likely in the near term.
Vessel UAN tons were pegged at the $310-$315/mt C&F mark for the last business, but sources talked of indications in the high-$330s/mt for the next round.
Western U.S.: Agrium’s UAN-32 postings firmed on Nov. 2 to $345/st ($10.78/unit) DEL in Washington, northern Idaho, and northwestern Oregon excluding Malheur County; $350/st ($10.94/unit) rail-DEL and $355/st ($11.09/unit) truck-DEL in southern Idaho, Nevada, Utah, and Oregon’s Malheur County; $353/st ($11.03/unit) FOB Sacramento, Calif.; $370/st ($11.56/unit) truck-DEL in Central California; and $375/st ($11.72/unit) truck-DEL in northern California, Montana, and northern Wyoming. Agrium’s UAN-28 postings moved on that date to $328/st ($11.71/unit) truck-DEL in Montana and northern Wyoming.
AMMONIUM NITRATE
U.S. Gulf: As with UAN barges, $295/st FOB plus appeared to be the price. Most players called the market at least $295/st FOB.
Western Cornbelt: Ammonium nitrate was steady at $325-$335/st FOB in the region, where available.
Southern Plains: Ammonium nitrate was pegged at $325-$330/st FOB the port of Catoosa, Okla.
South Central: Ammonium nitrate was quoted at $315-$328/st FOB in the region. Effective Oct. 22, Terra’s ammonium nitrate postings moved up to $315/st FOB Yazoo City, Miss., and $328/st FOB McComb, Miss.
Southeast: Ammonium nitrate was tagged at $335/st FOB Tampa, Fla., up $10/st from last report.
AMMONIUM SULFATE
Eastern Cornbelt: Granular ammonium sulfate pricing was firm at $230-$240/st FOB in the region.
Western Cornbelt: Granular ammonium sulfate remained in tight supply at $225-$235/st FOB, with delivered granular sulfate at $235/st in Nebraska. Agrium’s ammonium sulfate posting will firm on Nov. 9 to $245/st rail-DEL in Nebraska, Wisconsin, Minnesota, and the Dakotas.
Southern Plains: Ammonium sulfate pricing took an increase in the region at midweek. Prior to Nov. 1, sources pegged the market for granular sulfate in Texas at $200/st FOB Freeport and $230/st FOB Plainview. As of the first of November, however, a $10/st increase took effect, bringing the Plainview market to $240/st FOB for granular, $230/st FOB for coarse, and $215/st FOB for standard.
American Plant Food Corporation’s Nov. 1 granular ammonium sulfate postings include $210/st FOB Freeport, Texas, $220/st FOB Galena Park, Texas, $230/st FOB Mermentau, La., and $240/st FOB Littlefield, Texas. The company’s postings for coarse grade ammonium sulfate moved on that date to $195/st FOB Freeport, $205/st FOB Galena Park, and $225/st FOB Littlefield, while postings for standard grade sulfate firmed to $185/st FOB Freeport and $215/st FOB Littlefield. APF’s posting for N-Pac Compacted ammonium sulfate moved up on Nov. 1 to $225/st FOB Galena Park.
South Central: Granular ammonium sulfate was steady at $230-$235/st FOB in the region.
Southeast: Granular ammonium sulfate was quoted at $220-$230/st FOB, and up to $255/st DEL in Florida.
Western U.S.: Agrium’s ammonium sulfate postings will firm on Nov. 9 to $250/st FOB warehouses in Washington, Idaho, Oregon, Utah, and Nevada, and $255/st DEL in Montana, Wyoming, Idaho, Washington, Oregon, Utah, and Nevada.
PHOSPHATE
Central Florida: With a huge amount of business already on the books, producers in Central Florida were sweeping the floors to keep up with demand. A source said he was told Mosaic had nothing left to offer until April, but the company said that was an exaggeration, although they agreed the situation was very tight. Sources also said CF’s inventory was extremely low, and PotashCorp was in the same situation. As a result, prompt sales of DAP and MAP out of Central Florida were nonexistent last week.
The impact on traders who rely on Central Florida for phosphate supplies to sell was hard to predict. “Somehow, someway, I think we can come up with something, but the fall season is almost over. Some (dealers) have already filled for the winter.”
Part of the problem for the domestic shortage was due to the export market, where the price was running about $30/st FOB higher than Central Florida, which was an indication the domestic price will rise again. Late last week, PhosChem made a sale of 10,000 mt of DAP into Mexico at $480/mt FOB, which created the wide gap. PhosChem needs to provide for its export customers or risk losing that business to competitors.
Railcars for phosphates moving out of Florida continued to be scarce last week, and that situation will not change in the near future.
No new sales were reported, leaving the last done business at $400/st FOB. However, the lowest price being offered last week, according to sources, was actually $405/st FOB without a discount. Mosaic raised its asking price from $405/st FOB to $410/st FOB for DAP and $4/st FOB less for MAP. CF also increased its list price from $400/st FOB to $405/st FOB for DAP and priced MAP at $402/st FOB. PotashCorp bumped its Central Florida reference price another $5/st FOB from $405/st FOB to $410/st FOB. In Texas, Agrifos increased its truck price last week to $450/st FOB from $440/st FOB and hiked its rail price from $425/st FOB to $435/st FOB, although railcars were sold out into January.
U.S. Gulf: NOLA DAP barges on the upper Mississippi River were apparently gone by late last week. With the fall season coming to a close, buying has slowed, but what activity there was last week brought higher prices than the previous week.
On the Arkansas River, terminals still had phosphates in their bins and the wheat season was quickly drawing to a close. The remaining source for sales in that area was for row crops, such as soy beans, peanuts, and cotton. Terminals had lower than normal sales in August and September, but sales expectations were met in October – although not enough to offset the sales lost earlier.
Warehouses throughout the Midwest were raising their prices last week to reflect the higher cost of new barges arriving. Prices climbed from the $435/st FOB level the previous few weeks to a range of $440-$450/st FOB, depending on location. Several traders said warehouse activity was running between good and excellent.
Sales made for delivery in December and later were done at $435/st FOB, and that price may go up, if Mosaic kicks its asking price up above the current $425/st FOB level. However, Mosaic had virtually a full book of business into next year, and spot sales from Donaldsonville will be, well, spotty.
The NOLA DAP barge price range last week, based on actual sales, moved up to $421-$425/st FOB from the previous week’s flat $420/st FOB.
Eastern Cornbelt: Warehouses throughout the region were raising phosphate prices in late October, with reports of brisk plow-down demand in some areas. The DAP and MAP markets were quoted at $440-$450/st FOB in the region, with the low out of spot river locations and the upper numbers inland. No current prices were reported for TSP in the region. 10-34-0 was pegged at $385-$390/st FOB, where available.
Western Cornbelt: DAP and MAP prices were up from last report, with the dealer markets quoted at $440-$450/st FOB in the region last week. Most pegged the river terminal pricing in the $440-$445/st FOB range, with the upper end out of inland locations. 10-34-0 remained in tight supply at a firm $385-$395/st FOB in the region.
Southern Plains: DAP and MAP pricing was up from last report, and MAP was in particularly tight supply. DAP was pegged at $440-$450/st FOB the port of Catoosa, and was reportedly moving to the upper end of that range quickly. One source at midweek quoted the Tulsa DAP market at a firm $445-$448/st FOB. MAP was generally priced the same as DAP, where available, although some suppliers were referencing MAP at the $455/st level FOB Catoosa as the week advanced.
10-34-0 pricing was up as well. The regional market was quoted at $350-$365/st FOB, with the low in the Texas panhandle and the upper end FOB El Dorado or Wichita, Kan.
Agrium’s phosphoric acid prices in Colorado, Kansas, Oklahoma, Texas, and New Mexico for November include $715/st rail-DEL for merchant grade acid (MGA) and $725/st rail-DEL for super phosphoric acid (SPA). Postings for both products will increase by $10/st in December.
South Central: DAP and MAP warehouse prices were up $10/st from last report, with the regional markets pegged at $440-$450/st FOB to the dealer. TSP was tagged at $410-$420/st FOB the warehouse, also up from last report.
U.S. Export: With the domestic fall season drawing to a close, PhosChem was concentrating on the export market last week. PhosChem made a sale of 6,000 mt of DAP into Mexico at $459/mt FOB, then another 6,000 mt of DAP to South America at $464/mt FOB, and still another sale of 6,000 mt to Mexico at $467/mt FOB. PhosChem was considering hiking the price of its next sale to $470/mt FOB but instead moved that figure to $480/mt FOB, and made a sale at $480/mt FOB into Mexico late last week. The new price will move to $485/mt FOB this week. Worldwide, phosphate remained scarce and the price high and moving higher.
Ocean freight rates, which had been moving up faster than a rocket, moved down somewhat for larger vessels last week, and even dipped a little for smaller vessels. Considering the high price of oil, freight rates were not likely to take a deep plunge anytime soon.
Meanwhile, Pakistan was said to be in the market seeking 500,000 mt, but will probably not make a buy due to the high price worldwide. Europe remained one of the hottest markets in the world, and Ethiopia was also in the market. Brazil and Argentina, along with the rest of the Western Hemisphere, were the most likely customers for PhosChem.
Based on sales last week, the export price range moved up from a flat $450/mt FOB to $459-$467/mt FOB. This week, new sales should be made in the $470-$480/mt FOB range.
POTASH
Eastern Cornbelt: Potash pricing continued to climb, provided spot tons could be had out of regional warehouses. Sources quoted the market at $310-$325/st FOB last week, with some expressing doubts about the low end of that range as the week advanced.
Western Cornbelt: Potash was in extremely tight supply, with some suppliers reportedly no longer offering spot pricing. Where material was available, sources tagged the warehouse market at $313-$325/st FOB, up considerably from the prior week, with the low reported on a spot basis in Missouri early in the week.
Southern Plains: Potash availability was extremely tight, and the under-supply “couldn’t have come at a worse time” with field movement picking up in the region, according to one source. Most dealers had filled as much as they could in preparation for fall demand, and one said he hoped that supply “would get them through this run” since replacement tons were increasingly difficult to source.
Sources confirmed warehouse sales as high as $325/st FOB Catoosa early last week, but some suppliers had shut off sales at that location by midweek. Kansas sources reported spot warehouse sales early in the week for as low as $305-$313/st FOB, but business at those levels was “day to day,” and availability was questionable as the week advanced.
Effective Nov. 5, potash postings from Intrepid Potash FOB Carlsbad, N.M., will move to $264/st for 62 percent standard, $267/st for 60 percent granular and 62 percent fine standard, and $272/st for 62 percent granular. Intrepid’s postings FOB Moab, Utah, will move to $267/st for 60 percent granular and $261/st for 60 percent standard, and potash postings FOB Wendover, Utah, will move on Nov. 5 to $275/st for 60 percent standard and $281/st for 60 percent granular. Those levels represent a $30/st increase from the company’s Oct. 1 potash postings at those locations.
South Central: Potash business was hard to come by last week, as several suppliers had suspended sales based on very tight inventories. Sources pegged the regional warehouse market at $310-$320/st FOB, if available. That range was up significantly from last report.
Southeast: Sources reported no current potash prices in the region, with some reporting that availability was now “locked up” until 2008. One Carolina source said fall movement was off considerably due to the drought conditions, but supply concerns remain for next spring and for movement in ice melt mixtures this winter up and down the East Coast.
Saskatchewan: Mosaic expects its Esterhazy potash mine to be back in production early next week as originally planned. The facility had been down due to a problem with a hoist (GM Oct. 29, p. 10).
U.S.: Due to continuing supply pressure, unprecedented global demand, and escalating transportation and production costs for sulfate of potash, Potash Import & Chemical Corp. says that effective with shipments on Nov. 19, 2007, it will raise SOP prices by $35/st on all grades.
SULFUR
Tampa: The contentious sulfur negotiations for fourth quarter pricing were settled last week at $28/lt up from the previous quarter. That price was roughly halfway between what sulfur suppliers and phosphate producers had initially offered. Accountants for both sides were said to be responsible for pushing for a settlement.
Odds are sulfur producers will seek a similar hike for the first quarter of 2008 and may be successful, but by midyear the supply and demand situation should begin to level off. More sulfur production will be coming on line in the former countries of the Soviet Union and the Middle East, and between 2009 and 2010 sulfur will again be in a surplus. “When it turns next year, be careful what you wish for, because (the market) will go down faster than it went up. This is the last hurrah,” a sulfur source advised.
Refineries along the Gulf Coast were running normally last week, which should help ease the current shortage, assuming the transportation to make deliveries is available. Late last week, Mosaic’s Sulfur Enterprise was out of dry dock and back in service, which would help the transportation problem.
Tropical Storm Noel veered northeast late and into the Atlantic Ocean last week, after hovering over Cuba for several days, and posed no threat to shipping in the Gulf of Mexico.
West Coast: Valero’s sulfur production on the West Coast will be curtailed until around the middle of December due to turnarounds at the company’s refineries there. The turnaround at the plant near Stockton was still underway but nearly complete last week, but the refinery at Long Beach was getting ready to start, and that will be at reduced production until the middle of December.
Vancouver: Sulfur supplies at Vancouver were said to be in good shape after a long period of shortages, but there was no indication prices will be lowered anytime soon.
Although prices in Vancouver were running about $150/mt FOB, Agrium told analysts last week that it was paying only $35-$40/t under long-term contracts for its phosphate processing plants.
MARKET NOTES
Poland: The country may postpone construction of a gas terminal at Swinoujscie on the Baltic Coast near the German frontier because of the “tight situation” on the world gas market. The government has held talks on the import of gas with Saudi Arabia and Algeria without result. On the other hand, there is pressure to build a terminal in existing Naftoport near Gdansk, which currently exports Russian crude oil. This port can be readily adapted to import gas.
Pakistan: Total fertilizer imports during the first three quarters of the current financial year ( July-September) stand at 429,447 mt of DAP, and other fertilizer at $201.5 million compared to 392,688 mt at $116.2 million – showing a growth of 9.36 percent and 73.38 percent, respectively.