AMMONIA
U.S. Gulf/Tampa: The last done business at Tampa continues to be called $540/mt DEL. However, there were reports last week of new import business into Donaldsonville as high as $580/mt DEL. Sources said Yuzhnyy prices are surging.
Eastern Cornbelt: Anhydrous ammonia pricing remained at $660-$670/st FOB terminals for spot tons.
Western Cornbelt: The anhydrous ammonia market was steady at $630-$665/st FOB regional terminals, with some Iowa sources quoting the $670/st FOB level for prepay.
Southern Plains: Anhydrous ammonia was pegged at $570-$600/st FOB regional terminals, with the low out of production points and the upper end FOB Kansas pipeline terminals after discounts. Delivered ammonia remained at $600-$605/st in northern Texas and Oklahoma for the last sales, with postings in the $620-$625/st DEL range.
South Central: The anhydrous ammonia market was tagged at $580-$610/st FOB regional terminals to the dealer, with the low FOB Memphis, Tenn.
Black Sea: Prices continue to push ever upward. Even though Thursday marked the beginning of the Lunar New Year of the Rat, those still at their desks in Asia said $600/mt FOB out of Yuzhnyy is a real likelihood.
While no contracts were reported at that price, sources said the rapid rise in prices last week was enough to make buyers nervous everywhere. By last week $550/mt FOB was tossed about as a likely price. Sources note, however, that most of the February tons were sold some time ago. Deals being made now are said to reflect March cargoes.
One report came out late last week of a March deal at $560/mt FOB, which confirms the upward trend.
Approximately 400,000 mt is slated to move out of the area this month.
Middle East: Producers continue to plead shortages whenever the topic of a spot purchase is raised. Sources say the price in the area is moving up in sync with the Yuzhnyy price. Reports that at least one cargo was done at $500/mt FOB circulated early last week. Sources say the deal most likely will now be the floor producers will consider for future deals.
An ammonia shortage is claimed for the area because the Safco IV facility went down late last month. Operations are not expected to begin until Feb. 22.
Asia: Japanese producers are looking at the Yuzhnyy and Middle East prices with envy. Sources say the local producers are hoping to move their prices up to match the international market. Buyers, however, are pushing back hard.
The chemical companies that need the ammonia claim the Japanese market has long been out of step with the international market. They say there is no reason other than the greed of the producers to move the price up.
Malaysian and Indonesian suppliers remain sold out for February. Sources say March cargoes also appear to be fully booked.
UREA
U.S. Gulf: Most players last week said granular urea prices found their bottom and then strengthened. The only question was exactly where that bottom was found. Most honed in around the $390/st FOB mark, with claims that business was done as low as $387/st FOB. There were also unconfirmed reports that business may have gone as low as $380-$385/st FOB; however, sources speculated that these were cases where delivered product was being netted back to NOLA and not FOB numbers.
While granular was reported to have found a bottom, prills were not as lucky. Sources called them $370-$380/st FOB, and more plentiful in general than granular. Sellers have said all along that the granular at NOLA will be needed to meet demand in coming weeks, so there was no need for price erosion.
Eastern Cornbelt: In spite of the drop in urea barge prices at the U.S. Gulf, most sources said upriver terminal pricing remained unchanged due to lack of new business. Granular urea remained at $470-$480/st FOB regional terminals. The dealer market FOB Cincinnati, Ohio, was quoted at the $475/st mark, but postings from some suppliers were as high as $500/st FOB in Ohio.
Western Cornbelt: Granular urea was steady at $465-$480/st FOB most regional terminals, with the upper end reflecting dealer list prices in Iowa.
Southern Plains: Most of the market discussions in the region last week centered on the weakening urea prices. Dealer postings on Feb. 1 dropped to $410-$415/st FOB Inola and Enid, Okla. Those levels reflected another drop from Koch’s Jan. 29 reference levels, which had been at $430/st FOB Inola and $450/st FOB Enid.
South Central: Sources pegged the urea market at $425-$435/st FOB regional terminals, down roughly $30/st from last report. While some saw the recent downturn in price as an indication of things to come, others were more inclined to view the lower prices as a temporary lull before another in-season firming trend.
Southeast: Granular urea was unchanged at $470-$480/st FOB port terminals to the dealer.
Black Sea: The quiet nature that surrounds the Asian Lunar New Year seems to have reached to Yuzhnyy.
Reports of sub-$300/mt FOB material circulated among the few Asian operators who were not off celebrating the beginning of the year of the rat. Still, the conventional wisdom has the market above $300/mt FOB.
Even with rumors of prices dipping into the upper $200s/mt FOB, the general outlook is that the price will rebound shortly. The upswing in the price, say sources, will come when India once again begins to buy.
With Yuzhnyy reported in the upper $200s/mt FOB and confirmed in the low $300s/mt FOB, sources figure some traders will be stepping in soon to grab some contracts in anticipation of the Indian tender calls.
NITROGEN SOLUTIONS
U.S. Gulf: Barge price ideas continued to erode, though finding actual new trades was difficult. Generally, sources were calling the market $320-$330/st FOB ($10.00-$10.31/unit). Sources said it was simply hard to find the tank space to accommodate a new sale.
Eastern Cornbelt: UAN remained at $11.45-$12.00/unit FOB regional terminals for spot or prepay tons, with the upper end reported in Indiana for spring prepay.
Western Cornbelt: UAN-32 was quoted at $11.41-$11.65/unit FOB regional terminals for spot or prepay. Dealer reference levels were reported as high as the $12.00/unit FOB mark, but no business was confirmed at that level.
Southern Plains: UAN-32 remained at $355-$370/st ($11.09-$11.56/unit) FOB terminals to the dealer, with the low reported out of regional production points.
South Central: The UAN-32 market was unchanged at $350-$360/st ($10.94-$11.25/unit) FOB regional terminals to the dealer.
Southeast: With higher replacement costs noted for incoming vessel tons, sources quoted the UAN-30 market at $330-$340/st ($11.00-$11.33/unit) FOB regional terminals.
AMMONIUM NITRATE
Western Cornbelt: Ammonium nitrate remained at $390-$400/st FOB.
Southern Plains: Ammonium nitrate was quoted at $375-$385/st FOB Catoosa.
South Central: Ammonium nitrate was reported at $375-$385/st FOB in the region, up again from last report. Effective Jan. 25, Terra’s posting for ammonium nitrate moved to $375/st FOB Yazoo city, Miss., up $20/st from the company’s Dec. 17 list price at that location.
Southeast: Ammonium nitrate pricing was steady at $335/st FOB Tampa.
AMMONIUM SULFATE
Eastern Cornbelt: Granular ammonium sulfate was tagged at $280-$295/st FOB in the region.
Western Cornbelt: Granular ammonium sulfate was pegged at $285-$300/st FOB last week.
Southern Plains: Granular ammonium sulfate was up from last report at $240-$270/st FOB in Texas. Effective Feb. 4, granular ammonium sulfate postings from American Plant Food Corp. firmed $20/st to $240/st FOB Freeport, $250/st FOB Galena Park, $260/st FOB Fort Worth, and $270/st FOB Littlefield. The company’s coarse grade sulfate postings moved on that date to $225/st FOB Freeport, $235/st FOB Galena Park, $245/st FOB Fort Worth, and $255/st FOB Littlefield, while standard grade ammonium sulfate firmed to $215/st FOB Freeport and $245/st FOB Littlefield. N-Pac Compacted postings from the company moved on Feb. 4 to $255/st FOB Galena Park.
South Central: Granular ammonium sulfate was up from last report, at $275-$285/st FOB in the region.
Southeast: Granular ammonium sulfate was pegged at $265-$275/st FOB, up from last report. Effective Jan. 28, postings from DSM Chemicals jumped $25/st to $275/st FOB Augusta, Ga., and $300/st DEL in Florida. DSM’s standard grade sulfate postings moved on that date to $237/st railDEL into Florida and $220/st FOB Augusta for customers outside Florida.
PHOSPHATE
Central Florida: The cheap railcars of Central Florida phosphates from third parties appeared to evaporate last week, and prices shot up to producer asking prices – and higher in some cases.
“Producers want $680/st FOB and they are not budging,” a source said. “I don’t think I can get it any cheaper, now.”
A producer agreed, but added, “Yes, but we’re going to go up (this week.)”
Although the Gulf’s river market had taken the lead in terms of both price and activity in recent weeks, the Central Florida market has regained the lead on the domestic scene on both fronts. However, due to the time of year, neither of those markets was running at its peak last week. That will change during the next several weeks. A producer said inquiries for the summer period had already begun as of last week, a sign of the strength of the market.
Sales were made at TFI’s Orlando conference last week, but hardly at a record rate. Again, that’s not too surprising due to the time of the year, but prices showed no sign of deteriorating. The force pushing up prices has been the world market, where supplies remain slim and demand heavy. The biggest problem the industry at the dealer level will face during the spring will be getting warehouse prices in line with wholesale, rail, or barge, in order not to lose money. Fortunately, most dealers and traders have filled their phosphate bins with product purchased months earlier at lower prices. Instead of being able to enjoy large profits from that situation, some will be forced to sell at prices closer to their current purchase price.
The Central Florida DAP price range jumped from $605-$663/st FOB the previous week to $680-$685/st FOB last week. Mosaic was posting an asking price for phosphates of $680/st FOB for DAP and $676/st FOB for MAP. PotashCorp’s Central Florida reference price remained at $680/st FOB, and CF’s asking price was $680/st FOB for DAP and $677/st FOB for MAP. MAP supplies were said to be scarce. In Texas, Agrifos’s truck price continued at $705/st FOB, and its rail price was set at $700/st FOB for DAP last week.
U.S. Gulf: Despite a slowdown in activity the past two weeks, phosphate prices on the Gulf’s river system rose again last week. Currently, the shortage of MAP has caused the price to rise above that of DAP by between $21/st FOB and $31/st FOB, depending on the source.
In addition, a supply of excess barges, which had the effect of suppressing prices somewhat, appeared to have been nearly depleted as of late last week. As a result, producers will be back in the driver’s seat this week.
Sales were made at TFI’s Orlando meeting last week, and there were no indications that prices will be coming down anytime soon. The opposite is more likely, said sources.
The biggest problem on the river system has been the difference – or a lack of difference – between barge and warehouse prices. At this time of year farmers had not begun hitting dealers, so dealers, who were close to full, have little need to reorder from terminals. The upriver and Illinois River warehouses were experiencing slow sales, and at prices that were about their replacement cost. “It will be a struggle to get the terminal prices up,” a source complained. The material at warehouses was bought for roughly $100/st less than the current barges price, and the price to dealers will likely be about the same as the barge price. The source said terminals were not likely to actually lose money, but will see reduced profits. That situation could continue until sometime in April or May. The export market has continued to put pressure on the domestic scene, and that situation was not likely to change. India and Pakistan were both short of their needs and seeking additional supplies.
The high cost of phosphates will force reduction of applications for some crops, such as pasture and cotton, but grain farmers will continue to buy as long as the price of their own product remains high. The high price of grains, particularly corn, will force consumer prices to rise. Richard Brock of “The Brock Report” said at the TFI meeting that there was a three-week wait for slaughtering hogs in the Midwest because farmers can no longer afford to feed their animals. That will soon create a shortage of pork, and with many of the sows being turned into sausage, it will take time to restore their population.
“When the little old lady in Chicago has to pay $6.00 for a box of corn flakes, the politicians will step in,” a fertilizer source commented.
Last week, Mosaic made sales of DAP for rail at $700/st FOB, which was well above the NOLA DAP barge price, but not applicable to the price range. In addition, it made several sales of MAP barges at $696/st FOB, but MAP has been selling at a premium due to shortages and was not necessarily reflective of the DAP market. In addition, a barge of TSP was sold at $550/st FOB, which was about $100/st FOB below Mosaic’s asking price.
The NOLA DAP barge price range moved up from $650-$665/st FOB to $660-$675/st FOB last week. MAP prices were higher. Mosaic’s barge price last week was set at $700/st FOB, and CF said to be moving its price to $720/st FOB for March NOLA DAP barges.
Eastern Cornbelt: DAP and MAP remained in a broad range at $680-$735/st FOB regional warehouses last week, with no new business to test the higher numbers. No market was reported for 10-34-0 due to extremely tight supply.
Western Cornbelt: DAP was quoted in the $675-$725/st range FOB regional warehouses last week, although no actual sales were confirmed at the upper end of that range. MAP was steady at $680-$725/st FOB the warehouse, again with the top of the range reflecting dealer reference levels.
10-34-0 was very tight, with the market firm at $550-$580/st FOB in the region. Effective Feb. 1, Agrium’s phosphoric acid postings moved to $940/st rail-DEL for both super phosphoric acid (SPA) and merchant grade acid (MGA) in Iowa, Nebraska, and Missouri. Additional per-month increases of $10/st are slated for both products in March, April, and May.
Southern Plains: Most sources pegged the DAP and MAP markets at the $675/st level FOB the Catoosa, Okla., market last week. Postings were reportedly as high as $720-$725/st FOB, give or take, but no actual sales were reported at the higher numbers.
No current prices were reported for 10-34-0, which sources described as incredibly tight in the region. Effective Feb. 1, Agrium’s postings for super phosphoric acid (SPA) and merchant grade acid (MGA) moved up dramatically, to $940/st rail-DEL in Colorado, Kansas, New Mexico, and Texas, with $10/st per month increases slated for March, April, and May.
South Central: DAP and MAP were tagged at $650-$685/st FOB regional warehouses, up from last report, but sources reported few new sales to test the market. TSP was reported at the $625/st FOB level on the low end, again with few sales to test the market.
Western U.S.: Effective Feb. 6, Agrium’s MAP postings moved to $740/st DEL in Montana and Wyoming; $745/st DEL in southern Idaho, Utah, Nevada, and Oregon’s Malheur County; $745/st FOB and $750/st DEL in Washington, northern Idaho, and Oregon excluding Malheur County; and $755/st FOB or rail-DEL in California and Arizona.
U.S. Export: Although the export market has been forcing up the domestic markets, it’s taken a break during the past couple of weeks. PhosChem has not been offering product in an effort to build inventories.
Last week, Pakistan was believed to have purchased about 60,000 mt of DAP from Russia and China at about $900/mt DEL, which would equate to a price of about $780/mt FOB in the U.S. India was said to also be in the market, and worldwide demand remained strong.
The deal reported the previous week between Fertinal and a buyer in Ecuador was confirmed. The amount was 6,000 mt, and was priced within the current DAP export range. In addition, it sold another 24,000 mt in Mexico at similar netbacks. Phosphate from the newly restarted plant enjoys a competitive advantage due to shorter delivery distances and lower freight rates. Fertinal began producing phosphoric acid last week, and should be granulating by the beginning of this week. The company hopes to build inventories during the early startup phase before plunging into the market.
With a lack of new sales, the export DAP price range last week was unchanged at $745-$760/mt FOB, but watch for prices to hit $800/mt FOB sometime soon.
POTASH
Eastern Cornbelt: Potash out of regional warehouses was pegged at $475-$500/st FOB, and in very tight supply.
Western Cornbelt: Potash remained at $475-$500/st FOB regional warehouses for limited tons, with most sources touting the upper end of that range for brokered sales to the dealer.
Southern Plains: Potash postings from Intrepid Potash FOB Carlsbad, N.M., firmed on Feb. 1 to $397/st for 60 percent granular and 62 percent standard, $400/st for 62 percent fine standard, and $405/st for 62 percent granular. Those levels represent a $40/st increase from the company’s January postings, and an $80/st increase from December levels.
Out of regional warehouses, sources pegged the spot potash market last week at a firm $475-$500/st FOB, provided any tons could be found.
South Central: Potash out of the regional warehouse system was pegged at $445-$460/st FOB, provided any spot tons could be found. That range was once again up from last report. Intrepid Potash’s postings for 60 percent red granular potash FOB McComb, Miss., firmed on Feb. 1 to $446/st FOB.
Southeast: As for potash, regional sources continued to quote the market for spot tons at $442-$445/st FOB and $445-$465/st DEL in the Southeast, if available.
SULFUR
Tampa: World prices for sulfur continue to surge upward, as Abu Dhabi set its February price at $600/mt FOB last week. With most refineries running at about normal rates, increasing demand continues to propel the market. However, the Tampa molten price phosphate producers pay will almost certainly go up again for the second quarter, probably by $100/lt or more, say sources. That situation was also hurting industrial customers, who base their contracts on the Tampa price. There was no relief on the horizon.
CF was said to be planning a turnaround at its Plant City, Fla., processing plant in mid-February, which will last between two and three weeks. The work on the sulfuric acid plant will help eliminate bottlenecks and increase capacity.
Valero’s refinery at Aruba should be restarting by this week, after a fire broke out in a vacuum tower while the plant was restarting following an outage a few weeks earlier. The company was planning on bypassing the damaged tower and operating others at the facility.
West Coast: Contracts for refinery to prill plants have been settled at about $100/mt over the first quarter prices.
Alberta: Kinder Morgan’s plan to build a regional sulfur forming and handling terminal in the Heartland, Alberta area, could help put some additional sulfur into the system. The facility, which would be located near refineries and would offer economies of scale not possible by smaller operations, also has access to transportation. Initially, it would be able to meet the needs by 2010 and would be able to increase capacity until 2021. It would be able to load a 100-car unit train in four to six hours. The project does require environmental approval, which was not expected to be a problem.
MARKET NOTES
India: IFFCO reports that it has successfully retrofitted the ailing Paradeep fertilizer plant – bought from Oswals – into what it terms as a “brand new” unit. The capacity of the DAP (and complexes) plant has been restored to 1.95 million mt/y, thus reasserting its position as the largest grassroot DAP plant in the world. A lot of effort had gone in to getting the plant back in shape. However, even though the company had been able to scale up the capacity of the plant, production was targeted at only around 1.2 million mt/y in the current year, though the actual figure is expected to be only 900,000 mt/y – entirely on account of lack of adequate quantities of rock phosphate. In 2008-09, IFFCO is expecting to produce around 1.5 million mt/y of DAP. Rock supplies have been reportedly tied up by the cooperative giant from different buyers to achieve the production target.
Russia: Uralkali has announced its decision to take part in the auctions for licenses for newly available sections of the Verkhnekamskoye Potash Deposit (Perm Territory). The auctions, organized and held by the Federal Agency for Subsoil Use, are scheduled to take place on March 11, 2008. Uralkali says that rights to the newly available sections of the deposit are to be sold off in three lots: the first includes the Talitski section; the second includes the Polovodovski section, a part of the Novo-Solikamski section, and a part of the Ostalnaya area; and the third includes the Palasherski section and the Balakhontsevski section. Uralkali is interested in acquiring rights to all of these sections.
Australia: The federal government has asked the Australian Competition and Consumer Commission to carry out an inquiry into fertilizer price hikes. Farmer organizations applauded the news. “The Fertilizer Industry Federation says the price hikes are because of a global shortage and high shipping costs, but given half of Australia’s fertilizer is produced locally, we feel an ACCC inquiry is justified,” said NSW Farmers Association President Jock Laurie. He said Australia farmers were particularly hurt in the wake of Australia’s worst-ever recorded droughts, and added that fertilizer prices have escalated from $400/mt to over $1,100 mt in just two years.
