AMMONIA
U.S. Gulf/Tampa: The Tampa and U.S. import market were quiet last week. Most had been speculating that the next round of business would be lower due to weaker prices in the Black Sea. A recent update by PotashCorp may serve to shore up the market.
PotashCorp’s Trinidad Number Four plant is expected to be offline longer than expected. The plant went out of service May 2 to replace an internal heat exchanger in the ammonia converter. With this work underway, management has determined that it will use this opportunity to proceed with more extensive maintenance at the 04 plant. Accordingly, the 04 ammonia plant will now be out of service for 60 days (previously 28 days). This outage will result in lost production of approximately 120,000 mt of ammonia (previously 56,000 mt).
Ammonia imports were off 9 percent in May, to 654,832 mt from the year-ago month, according to the U.S. Department of Commerce. However, July-March imports were up 7 percent, to 6.35 million st from the year-ago 5.96 million st.
Eastern Cornbelt: Sources continued to quote the spot ammonia market at $800-$820/st FOB regional terminals, although many were still pulling prepay to meet the demand. Sources also talked of dealer-to-dealer trades taking place for extra spring prepay tons, and several dealers indicated they would need some more ammonia and UAN for upcoming sidedress demand. Forward contract ammonia continued to be available for June and beyond at $885-$895/st FOB in the region. CF Industries’ new ammonia postings for the May 16-23 order and shipping period were up dramatically, to $1,015/st FOB Illinois terminals and $1,010-$1,020/st FOB in Indiana.
Western Cornbelt: Ammonia pricing continued to be quoted at $750-$800/st FOB regional terminals for spot tons, although many still had spring prepay tons to burn through. On a forward contract basis for June through November, one supplier was referenced at $875/st FOB in Nebraska, $880/st FOB in Iowa, and $885/st FOB in Missouri. CF Industries published much higher ammonia postings for the May 16-23 order and shipping period. These include $1,000/st FOB Nebraska terminals, $1,005/st FOB in Iowa, and $1,010/st FOB Palmyra, Mo.
Northern Plains: Ammonia pricing was up from last report. Sources tagged the market at $800-$820/st FOB regional terminals for spot market tons, with delivered ammonia reported firmly at the $925/st mark in North Dakota. One supplier was offering forward contract tons for June and beyond at $880-$900/st FOB in the region, with the low out of Minnesota terminals and the upper end in North Dakota.
Agrium’s May 8 ammonia postings in the Leal, Velva, Grand Forks, and Beulah sales area in North Dakota included $995/st FOB and $1,010/st DEL. Those levels reflect a $130-$135/st increase from the company’s May 1 ammonia postings in that location, and are up $210-$215/st from Agrium’s April 17 ammonia listings there. CF Industries published a new ammonia price list for the May 16-23 order and shipping period, which bumped ammonia prices up dramatically to $1,005/st FOB Minnesota terminals and $1,025/st FOB in North Dakota.
Great Lakes: The ammonia market was up significantly from last report, with most sources quoting the dealer market at $850-$880/st FOB last week. One source put the number in his trade area firmly at the $880/st FOB level “for spot, summer or fall, take your pick.”
Middle East: Producers remain adamant that the price is not below $500/mt FOB. They point to the recent sale from Qafco to Mitsui at just above $500/mt FOB as proof. Others say the Qafco-Mitsui deal was actually just below $500/mt FOB. Whatever the outcome of the deal, Asian sources are convinced the price will continue to slide, but at a slow rate.
Earlier reports of sub-$500/mt FOB deals apparently were more rumor than fact. Asian sources were hard pressed to name any business below $500/mt FOB last week.
Indian buyers are back in the market for ammonia, and area sellers are more than happy to provide the cargoes as needed.
The recovery of the Indian market came at a time when the producers were getting to a point when they might have to start putting ammonia into reserve stockpiles instead of outbound vessels.
The lack of reserves, said one trader, meant the producers could hold off lowering their prices until buyers came looking. And maybe one or two small deals with other Asian buyers could have kept the reserves at minimum levels.
Demand in East Asia is so strong that more buyers are beginning to look seriously at taking tons from the Middle East, even though the price is significantly higher than that of regional Asian producers.
Asian sources expect to see a continued softening in the Middle East price only because the Yuzhnyy price keeps moving down. The re-emergence of Indian buyers means the slide will be much more gradual.
For now, sources peg the market at $500-$510/mt FOB.
Black Sea: The price appears to be holding even, but apparently ready to slip further. Asian sources peg the market last week at $425-$440/mt FOB, with plenty of room to fall further. One observer argued that with the KIP at $20/mt FOB, there should be no reason to pay any more than that given the current trend in the market. Needless to say, producers disagree.
East Asia: Buyers remain on the lookout for cargoes. PhilPhos in the Philippines is reportedly looking for a cargo. The buyer may have to continue looking, said one trader. It seems they are bidding at $490-$500/mt CFR at a time when the price is closer to $500/mt FOB.
Indonesian production is way down because of problems with production at Kaltim.
The plant was shut down for seven days because of “unforeseen troubles.” The result in the domestic and international market was a growing concern about product availability. Sources report that Indonesian companies that rarely looked to the international market for material were out this past week trying to buy any extra tons that could be found.
Unfortunately for the buyers, the Asian market is so tight that many of the suppliers are having a difficult time meeting their own contracts with material on hand.
If the price slips just a bit more in the Middle East, Asian sources figure East Asian buyers will move quickly to grab any extra tons that might appear.
UREA
U.S. Gulf: Granular barges were reported to be slipping a little last week, with most players putting prompt barges within the $605-$615/st FOB range. Sources said prices have fallen back due to a temporary lull in the market between upriver and rice country demand. Sellers predict prices will rebound once buyers come into the market for rice application.
March urea imports were off 38 percent, to 561,466 st from the year-ago 900,025 st, according to the DOC. However, July-March imports were up 26 percent, to 5.58 million st from the year-ago 4.45 million st.
Eastern Cornbelt: Granular urea was quoted in a broad range at $625-$680/st FOB in the region, with several sources pegging the common dealer price right at the $650-$655/st FOB mark at midweek.
Western Cornbelt: Granular urea was quoted at $650-$680/st FOB in the region, up again from the prior week.
Northern Plains: Granular urea was tagged in a broad range at $625-$675/st FOB, with the low reported out of the Twin Cities market early in the week and the upper end reflecting updated dealer postings as the week advanced. North Dakota sources quoted delivered urea in the $680-$700/st range. On a forward contract basis for June, urea was referenced last week at $690/st FOB Pine Bend, Minn., and $700/st DEL in North Dakota and northern Minnesota.
Agrium’s granular urea postings firmed on May 8 to $670/st FOB Shakopee, Minn., and North Dakota terminals at Alton, Carrington, Colfax, Marion, and Scranton, and $675/st rail-DEL in Minnesota, the Dakotas, and Wisconsin. Those levels reflect a $75/st increase from Agrium’s May 1 postings at those locations.
Great Lakes: The granular urea market was also up dramatically. Sources quoted the dealer price last week at $650-$705/st FOB, with the low in Wisconsin and the upper end reflecting new dealer reference pricing in Michigan as of May 14.
Northeast: Granular urea was pegged at $650-$685/st FOB, with the upper end at E. Liverpool, Ohio. The Baltimore urea price was reportedly referenced at the $680/st FOB level last week, which was up considerably from the prior week. Sources said pricing out of the Philadelphia market had been at the $607/st FOB mark on May 7.
China: The earthquake in Sichuan province has apparently damaged or forced the shutdown of two major urea-producing facilities. The Meifeng and Lutianhua plants have a combined annual output of 2 million mt. Sources were not clear if the plants were damaged in the earthquake or if the earthquake merely disrupted supplies of inputs.
Reportedly, gas pipelines throughout the area were damaged enough to force the shippers to turn off the tap. So even if a plant avoided damage from the quake, sources say additional urea plants will most likely have to shut down.
In the end, said one trader, China will be short of urea for a while.
Other production facilities outside the devastated area are continuing to turn out urea, but demand is so strong that supplies are just keeping up with demand.
Sources report the central government is so focused on getting relief and help to the stricken area that all infrastructure resources are being bent to this task.
For urea plants still up and running and for local fertilizer distributors, that means railcars or trucks that once would have been used for fertilizer are now being diverted to the relief and rescue efforts.
While all eyes are now turned to helping Sichuan province, sources say port authorities are releasing more cargoes for export from the bonded warehouses. Observers say the local authorities earlier argued material in bonded warehouses was still subject to the 135 percent duty instead of the lower 35 percent rate because it was not shipped by the mid-April deadline.
Traders who were trying to take possession of the cargoes argued that the national guidelines stipulated that the urea could indeed be shipped at the lower rate if the tons were in the warehouse and a vessel was nominated by the deadline.
Some buyers have faced recalcitrant port authorities when the buyers tried to change the nominated vessel. Others had no problems with making the switch.
With an export duty of 35 percent, the Chinese tons could easily be competitive into India.
Sources report some traders who reportedly own some of the bonded tons have been talking to the Indians about a deal.
One observer noted that before the earthquake occurred the price of Chinese urea was on a steady downward glide path. Following the earthquake, sources are beginning to report a stability and uptick in the domestic price.
Had the price continued to drop, observers were convinced that eventually the 135 percent export duty would be swallowed up by the gap between the domestic and international prices.
Now, no one is sure if anything other than the stuff in the bonded warehouses will make it out of the country.
One source noted that the Beijing central planners have looked at the current situation following the earthquake and have hinted to some in the industry that the high duty may remain in place all year.
Black Sea: Producers are now saying material for the first half of June will cost buyers $700/mt FOB. Even last week producers were spreading reports that $650/mt FOB was done. A few traders acknowledged that the reports of $650/mt FOB sound plausible.
With Chinese urea out of play and India poised to start buying, sources say there is no reason for Black Sea or Middle East suppliers to moderate their pricing ideas.
Reportedly, about 450,000 mt are booked for export so far this month, with more consignments expected as the industry gathers in Vienna for the IFA conference.
Asian sources say that even though $650/mt FOB is likely by the time the IFA conference really gets rolling, as of late last week nothing at that level can be confirmed.
One observer noted that the price out of Yuzhnyy is being driven by producers looking to take advantage of a market that will soon show strong demand and limited supply. As of late last week, nailing down actual sales to real end users is difficult.
Even with more talk than action, sources say the price has clearly moved up again. The price range is now pegged at $625-$640/mt FOB, with a very real likelihood that $650/mt FOB could quickly become the low end of the scale before the IFA conference is half done.
Middle East: Reportedly, Sabic turned down a bid at $650/mt FOB because it was too low.
Middle East suppliers reportedly are offering tons to Bangladesh in the mid $660s/mt FOB and calling it a “friendly rate.”
The buyer sees little friendship in that price.
What is clear in the pricing ideas now being publicly discussed is that the price out of the Middle East is rising even faster than the Black Sea rate.
Source say suppliers here are looking to the upcoming calls for cargoes from India with the knowledge that the variety of shipping options from Middle East ports will make their offers more acceptable to the buyers.
Sources say Indian buyers were once again visiting the main producers looking for some sort of pre-IFA, pre-tender deal.
The gap in what buyers and sellers each thought was fair was great enough that the Indian buyers were thanked very much for their interest and then politely shown the door.
Sources expect to see a flurry of activity at the IFA conference. It would not be unusual to see STC or IPL announce a tender during the event. One trader commented that the buyers might try one more time in Vienna to secure pre-tender tons and then call the tender.
Observers say the producers are under no pressure to moderate their prices.
Besides Indian demand, Bangladesh and Pakistan are waiting in the wings to buy. And even if any of those buyers try to hold off or reduce their estimated take, there are enough other buyers in the world who need the tons and who are able – if not willing – to pay.
Bangladesh was not ready to pay. The tender BCIC closed in late April and then postponed until the first week of June showed pricing ideas from the Middle East at $680-$690/mt FOB for June.
Inventories at the producers’ plants are said to be very low. One trader noted that the low inventories make it clear that producers could easily wait out any of the big buyers who might try to push down the price by holding off on their tender calls.
Even though Sabic turned down a bid at $650/mt FOB, said one source, that did not mean some other supplier might not take the deal just to tighten things up a bit.
Asian sources are now pegging the Middle East market at $650-$660/mt FOB.
India: Reportedly, buyer representatives were moving from Middle East producer to producer last week, once again looking for a pre-tender or pre-IFA deal. All were rebuffed.
The big issue for the Indian buyers will be convincing the government that the market has moved as far as it has.
The government will be in a difficult position once the buying companies start signing contracts for the much-needed urea. The subsidies the government will have to pay to keep urea cheap to farmers will have to nearly double from previous years.
The growing cost of subsidies is a major concern for the finance ministry. However, the government is facing re-election this year. Elections have been won and lost on even the perception that a urea shortage might happen.
Producers are in no mood to modify their prices even for promises of cargoes well into the fourth quarter. Sources say with China effectively out of the international market, only Yuzhnyy and the Middle East can offer the necessary tonnage the country needs.
And of those two areas, only the Middle East can offer a variety of vessel sizes to better accommodate the needs of inland buyers.
Reportedly, some major traders were talking to the Indians about taking some of the Chinese tons still sitting in bonded warehouses waiting for export.
If anything came out of those talks, no one is talking.
Ironically, if the producers keep moving up their prices, Chinese urea – even with a 135 percent export duty – might become competitive.
Bangladesh: Even though BCIC postponed its tender from late last month to early June, sources say the company has been talking to each of the offering companies, as well as the Middle East suppliers, looking for a discount on prices.
Reportedly, at least one Middle East supplier offered in the mid-$660s/mt FOB. The Bangladesh buyers were hoping for something under $650/mt CFR.
The results from the tender apparently scared BCIC and the government’s finance ministry. The subsidies that would be required to bridge the gap between the offers and what the farmers would pay would cause severe harm to an already impoverished country.
Shipment was for early and late June in two cargoes. The offers from the April 28 tender follow.
BCIC Prill Urea Tender |
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| Prilled Urea | ||
| Offering Company | Quantity (mt) | UST/mt CFR bagged |
| Bulktrade | 12,500 | 769.40 |
| 12,500 | 774.00 | |
| New Trader | 12,500 | 775.00 |
| Wilson | 12,500 | 794.87 |
| Granular Urea | ||
| Bulktrade | 25,000 | 787.40 |
| 25,000 | 788.40 | |
| Mongla Desh | 25,000 | 787.40 |
| 25,000 | 788.40 | |
Source: Industry sources
In the end, not enough tons were offered and the price was too high. The estimated netback to the Middle East was $680-$690/mt FOB.
Indonesia: The PIM tender was pushed back because the plant operators decided they might not be able to meet the commitments of the tender. Reportedly, the tender would have sold two lots of 40,000 mt each in June, but disruption in the natural gas supplies caused reductions in output. Rather than risk not being able to deliver on time, PIM pushed back their selling contract until the input supply problem was resolved.
NITROGEN SOLUTIONS
U.S. Gulf: Most players called the most recent business within the $400-$405/st FOB ($12.50-$12.66/unit) range.
March imports were up 11 percent, to 365,035 st from the year-ago 328,642 st, according to the DOC. July-March imports were up even more at 54 percent, to 2.75 million st from the year-ago 1.78 million st.
Eastern Cornbelt: The UAN market was tagged at $13.25-$13.90/unit FOB regional terminals to the dealer for spot tons. Forward contract UAN-32 for June was being referenced at $14.00-$14.30/unit FOB in the region last week.
Western Cornbelt: The UAN-32 market was pegged at $415-$425/st ($12.97-$13.28/unit) FOB to the dealer, also up from last report. One Iowa source reported strong demand last week for both UAN and urea.
Northern Plains: The UAN market was pegged at $13.75-$14.20/unit FOB Minnesota terminals to the dealer, up significantly from last report. The dealer market FOB Winona, Minn., was reported at the $13.90/unit level last week. North Dakota sources pegged delivered UAN-28 in a very broad range at $400-$420/st ($14.29-$15.00/unit), depending on time of delivery. One supplier was referencing forward contract UAN-32 for June at $459.40/st ($14.36/unit) FOB Pine Bend.
Great Lakes: The UAN market was tagged at $13.22-$14.06/unit FOB, with the low in Michigan and the upper end reported in Wisconsin. One supplier was referenced at a firm $13.90/unit FOB Wisconsin terminals last week, while rail-delivered UAN-32 was quoted at the $460/st ($14.38/unit) mark in central Wisconsin.
Northeast: The UAN-30 market was pegged at $360-$365/st ($12.00-$12.17/unit) FOB Baltimore, Md., and Philadelphia, Pa. Those levels were up again from the prior week, when sources talked of spot pricing in the $335-$342/st ($11.17-$11.40/unit) FOB range. Out of terminals in upstate New York, dealer reference pricing for UAN-32 was quoted last week at $430/st ($13.44/unit) FOB before discounts.
Sources reported replacement vessel tons in a broad range at $425-$450/mt C&F, suggesting that the terminal UAN price will continue to ratchet up.
AMMONIUM NITRATE
U.S. Gulf: Ammonium nitrate barge prices continued to be quiet, a surprise to many in light of the huge run-up in urea and UAN prices. However, most said the price increases for those products came too late for AN.
One of the arguments has been that there simply wasn’t much AN around anyway, which may have been the case – at least with imports. March imports were off 54 percent, to 73,676 st from the year-ago 160,470 st. July-March imports were up a marginal 5 percent, to 878,707 st from the year-ago 833,073 st.
Western Cornbelt: Ammonium nitrate pricing remained at $395-$400/st FOB in the region.
AMMONIUM SULFATE
Eastern Cornbelt: Granular ammonium sulfate was quoted at $335-$370/st FOB in the region, with several sources reporting a $350/st FOB level to the dealer for new sales.
Western Cornbelt: Granular ammonium sulfate was tagged at $335-$350/st FOB regional terminals, and in tight supply.
Northern Plains: Granular ammonium sulfate was tagged at $340-$350/st FOB in Minnesota, with delivered sulfate reported at the $350/st mark in North Dakota. Several sources reported good movement last week, with sulfate in tight supply. Agrium’s ammonium sulfate postings firmed on May 2 to $342/st DEL in North Dakota, Minnesota, and Wisconsin.
12-0-0-26 ammonium thiosulfate was quoted at $295-$310/st FOB in the region, and also in tight supply.
Great Lakes: Granular ammonium sulfate was reported at $350-$370/st FOB, up significantly from last report, with the upper end in Michigan to the dealer. A Wisconsin source pegged the mid-grade sulfate price last week at $335/st FOB. 12-0-0-26 ammonium thiosulfate was quoted at $295-$310/st FOB in Wisconsin.
Northeast: Ammonium sulfate was quoted at $322-$335/st FOB, with the low FOB Philadelphia. Sources also talked of delivered ammonium sulfate in roughly the same range at $324-$335/st in the region.
U.S. Imports: March imports were up 24 percent, to 63,361 st from the year-ago 50,953 st. July-March imports were up 23 percent, to 331,390 st from the year-ago 268,937 st.
PHOSPHATES
Central Florida: Normally at this time of year business is slow, and last week was normal in terms of activity. Of course, prices were not normal, but much higher. The planting season got a late start in much of the country due to really nasty wet weather, but farmers were in their fields in most areas late last week. However, the business was being done out of warehouses, which were busy, and not at the wholesale side.
A trader said it appeared that most of the lower-priced phosphate, which was available from third parties, was gone, and producers were the remaining sources. Mosaic was a beneficiary. It sold both DAP and MAP for rail delivery on a prompt basis last week, which had not been the case in recent weeks.
With the announcement that Agrifos was ceasing production of super-phosphoric acid to meet the terms of a consent order, PotashCorp stepped in the fill the gap. Agrifos was producing about 100,000 tons a year at Houston, but PotashCorp will increase production of phosphate products at Aurora and super-phosphoric acid at its White Springs facility. The exact quantity produced at each plant was not reported; however, it was said to approximately match the Agrifos outage. Still, one source complained that not enough was available before Agrifos stopped production.
The Central Florida DAP price range last week moved from $1,000-$1,025/st FOB the previous week to $1,025-$1,070/st FOB, based on actual sales. PotashCorp’s Central Florida reference price stayed at $1,050/st FOB for DAP. Mosaic’s asking price was still $1,070/st FOB for DAP and $1,095/st FOB for MAP. CF’s price was $1,050/st FOB for DAP and $1,125/st FOB for MAP, which continued to be scarce. In Texas, Agrifos’s truck price remained at $1,050/st FOB for trucks and $1,045/st FOB for rail shipments.
U.S. Gulf: Prompt sales of phosphates on the nation’s river system were as quiet as a corpse last week. With the long delay for planting due to wet conditions, bins of traders and dealers were both near capacity last week. That worked out, because the weather improved enough by last week for farmers to get to work. Their buying was being done from warehouses, however, and no barge sales were reported by traders or producers.
On the Arkansas River, conditions for navigation remained poor last week, with only a limited number of tows with fewer barges able to move northward during daylight hours only due to high water and the fast current. That won’t make much difference, because sales were well below normal last week, and have been for some time.
The lack of business in the Gulf market in recent weeks has had a breaking effect on prices, which remained below those of Central Florida. Offers were generally in the range of $985-$1,000/st FOB, but no sales were made. Farmers will have to empty dealers’ warehouses, or come close, before reordering begins.
With less corn being planted this year, grain prices were anticipated to remain at high levels, which will put money in the pockets of farmers, who will need it to buy more expensive fertilizer and fuel next season.
With no new NOLA DAP barge sales last week, the price range remained at $995/st FOB early and $1,000/st FOB. MAP barges were available at higher prices. Mosaic’s asking price for forward sales from June through August was $1,090/st FOB for DAP and $1,105/st FOB for MAP. CF was seeking $1,070/st FOB for DAP and $1,145/st FOB for MAP for prompt deliveries.
Eastern Cornbelt: The regional DAP market was pegged at $1,050-$1,100/st FOB to the dealer, with MAP in roughly the same range last week. Forward contract DAP for June through September was on the table for $1,104/st FOB Peoria, Ill., and $1,107/st FOB Cincinnati. Sources offered no current pricing levels for 10-34-0 in the region.
Western Cornbelt: The DAP market was reported at $1,040-$1,100/st FOB regional warehouses to the dealer, with MAP at $1,050-$1,100/st FOB. One supplier was referencing forward contract DAP for June through September at $1,104/st FOB St. Louis, Mo., with MAP at $1,182/st FOB Inola, Okla.
10-34-0 remained in very tight supply at $900-$950/st FOB in the region “if you can find it.” That range was up again from the previous week.
Northern Plains: The DAP market was tagged last week at $1,050-$1,100/st FOB regional warehouses to the dealer, with MAP reported at $1,100-$1,150/st FOB. One supplier was referencing forward contract tons for June through September FOB Pine Bend at $1,110/st for DAP and 1,185/st for MAP.
10-34-0 remained in extremely tight supply. Minnesota sources reported green product available for $900/st FOB on a very limited basis, with black 10-34-0 reported at the $750/st FOB mark.
Great Lakes: The regional DAP market was quoted in a broad range at $1,050-$1,143/unit FOB warehouses to the dealer, with the upper end in Michigan and the low reported by southern Wisconsin sources. Truck-delivered DAP was tagged at the $1,060/st mark in central Wisconsin. MAP was $1,060-$1,158/st FOB in the region, with the high end again reported in Michigan to the dealer. One Michigan dealer said he expects to see some cutbacks in phosphate usage when spring volumes are tallied at the end of the planting season.
No current prices were reported for TSP. 10-34-0 remained in extremely tight supply in the region, with the only current price quote offered from a Wisconsin source at $925/st DEL from Iowa or Missouri shipping points.
Northeast: Phosphate pricing covered a wide range in the region. Sources quoted both the DAP and MAP markets at $997-$1,104/st FOB, depending on location and supplier. 10-34-0 was pegged at $850/st FOB Baltimore for the most recent spot quote, but other sources talked of supplies being sold out with no new sales being made.
U.S. Export: Last week, PhosChem made a sale of 6,500/mt of MAP into Africa at $1,255/mt FOB.
IFFCO Phosphate of India purchased between 230,000 mt and 265,000 mt from three American and two other suppliers last week, with deliveries scheduled for June and July. KIT got the biggest chunk of business, with three vessels loaded with between 40,000 and 45,000 mt at $1,277 CFR. ConAgra will make two deliveries of 25,000-30,000 at $1,285/mt CFR, and Keytrade/CF Industries will be providing 35,000-40,000 mt at $1,278/mt CFR. The FOB prices will be determined after deducting freight rates, which have been in the $100/mt range. If so, that would be well below the current Tampa export price range. In addition, Australia will provide 25,000-30,000 mt at $1,295/mt CFR, and another will deliver the same amount at $1,297/mt CFR.
The massive and deadly earthquake in China last week was believed to have caused major damage to two 11-44-0 MAP processing plants and a feed phosphate plant in Sichuan Province. In addition, other phosphate operations in the area were halted due to dangerous conditions. The area around Chengdu, the provincial capital, produces about 1.5 million mt of MAP and around 300,000 mt of phosphate rock a year, so its impact will have a direct effect on China. As a result, it was expected the high export tariff of 135 percent – which amounts to a ban – will be extended for some time. That will continue to put pressure on the world market.
The Fertilizer Institute issued its export report for April, which showed India was continuing to be the largest DAP customer of U.S. producers by taking 167,042 mt that month. Thailand was second at 41,028 mt, and Brazil third with 18,828 mt. Total DAP exports for April were 292,771 mt, a slight decrease of 4.5 percent from the same month last year. For the calendar-year-to-date, India was on top with 463,224 mt, Australia next at 157,212 mt, and Mexico third at 114,290 mt. Total DAP exports for the first four months amounted to 1,264,189 mt, which was 2 percent more than in 2007.
TFI said MAP exports totaled 139,777 mt, a decline of 20.5 percent over the same period last year. Canada was the biggest MAP buyer at 48,139 mt, followed by Brazil at 30,485 mt, and Argentina with 23,481 mt. For the calendar-year-to-date, Australia was the major recipient at 165,933 mt, Canada next at 154,137 mt, and Brazil was the third biggest at 71,548 mt. Total MAP exports so far this calendar year were 544,876 mt, a decrease of 26 percent compared to the previous year.
The DAP export price range last week was $1,160-$1,255/mt FOB, with sources citing Africa and IFFCO for the high and low.
India: IFFCO booked about 300,000 mt of DAP in a tender that closed last week.
IFFCO DAP tender |
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| Offering Company | Source | Quantity (mt) | US$/mt CFR | Comments |
| Keytrade/CF Industries | U.S.A. | 35-40,000 | 1,278 1,284 |
June shipment With 60 days |
| ConAgra | Open | 2 x 25-30,000 | 1,285 | June and July shipment |
| KIT | U.S.A. | 3 x 40,000 | 1,277 | June and July shipment |
| Pivot/Incitec | Australia | 25-30,000 | 1,295 | June shipment |
| Open | 25-30,000 | 1,297 | June shipment | |
Source: Industry sources
POTASH
Eastern Cornbelt: The potash market continued to climb, with most sources tagging the dealer price for brokered tons in the $650-$725/st FOB range in the region last week. Some suppliers were now referenced as high as $825/st FOB to the dealer, but no spot sales were confirmed at that level.
Western Cornbelt: The regional potash market was pegged at $670-$740/st FOB warehouses to the dealer, depending on grade and locations, with reference prices as high as $825/st FOB from resellers.
Northern Plains: North Dakota sources reported the potash market at $650-$665/st DEL, which backs up to $488-$493/st FOB the mine, depending on grade. Minnesota sources pegged the warehouse market for potash in a very broad range at $570-$800/st FOB, but the low end was expected to firm by $150/st on June 1.
PCS Sales will raise its terminal potash prices for all grades by $150-$175/st for all shipments between June 1 and Aug. 31. Agrium’s postings for 60 percent red premium potash for the July 1 forward shipping period include $623/st FOB Shakopee, $616/st rail-DEL in northern Minnesota and North Dakota, and $618/st rail-DEL in southern Minnesota and South Dakota. The company’s potash postings FOB Vade, Saskatchewan, include $585/st for standard grade and $590/st for red premium for July 1 forward.
Great Lakes: Potash was reported in a very broad range at $610-$750/st FOB the warehouse. One Michigan source quoted a $618/st FOB level for white granular potash last week, while Wisconsin sources quoted a $725-$750/st FOB range for spot tons from resellers or brokers. One source also reported truck-delivered coarse potash in Wisconsin at the $764/st level last week.
Northeast: Potash was quoted at $525-$625/st DEL in the region, essentially unchanged from last report, although availability of product remained a question. Sources talked of a significant increase June 1. Agrium’s potash postings for the July 1 forward shipping period include 60 percent red premium potash at $647/st FOB Lewistown, Pa., and $642/st rail-DEL in the Northeast region.
U.S. Imports: Imports were up 11 percent in March, to 1.32 million st from the year-ago 1.18 million st, according to the DOC. They tracked July-March imports, which were also up 11 percent to 8.84 million st from the year-ago 7.94 million st.
Russia: In the past week there have been reports that the crater in Berezniki may have grown in April by as much as 25 meters, to within 115 meters of the latest rail line built near the site. However, other sources have denied the reports, saying it is only speculation because the government has again been looking at the construction of a bigger bypass of the site.
SULFUR
Tampa: Refineries were said to be running at their best rates since late last year, after getting off to a rocky start this year. The sulfur shortage has taken a toll on the production of sulfur prill for export, and the domestic business has kept supplies low.
Sulfur production problems were rumored in Wyoming, which will not help the supply.
No serious talk of prices for the third quarter was circulating last week, but speculation was that customers will see another triple-digit increase. Nevertheless, the domestic market remains several hundred dollars below that of the world market.
U.S. Imports: Sulfur imports were up 144 percent in March, to 284,639 st from the year-ago 116,828 st. The bulk of this increase came to Canada. Imports from that country in March were 209,860 st, compared to the year-ago 84,701 st. Overall, U.S. July-March imports were up 53 percent, to 1.68 million st from the year-ago 1.09 million st.