AMMONIA
U.S. Gulf/Tampa: Lower prices for barges and imports are imminent, according to most sources. They cite lower Black Sea numbers and pressure from phosphate producers as the major impetus for those projections. Still, global ammonia prices have been relatively stable compared to urea, which continues in freefall mode. Players expect that new Tampa business may be concluded the week of Oct. 20.
Ammonia imports were up 5 percent in August, to 608,030 st from the year-ago 580,142 st, according to the U.S. Department of Commerce. July-Aug. imports were up 1 percent, to 1.38 million st from 1.37 million st.
Eastern Cornbelt: The spot anhydrous ammonia market remained at $1,000-$1,050/st FOB regional terminals, with the low end confirmed for spot cash sales in Illinois last week.
Western Cornbelt: Anhydrous ammonia was pegged at $975-$1,000/st FOB Iowa terminals for cash market tons, with reference prices reported at the $1,085/st FOB level in Missouri. While the spot market had dropped in other regions, sources said Midwest suppliers were trying to hold the price up due to the presence of quite a bit of fall prepay tons positioned earlier at higher numbers. One Missouri source last week reported a $920/st DEL price for ammonia shipped from southern production points.
Southern Plains: Several sources talked of normal or even slightly above-normal demand for preplant ammonia on wheat this fall. The ammonia market was quoted at $860-$900/st FOB in the region, with the low out of production points and the upper end out of regional pipeline terminals. Those numbers were down considerably from last report.
South Central: The spot market for anhydrous ammonia was tagged at $980-$1,000/st FOB to the dealer, with reports of spring prepay being offered at those same numbers from some suppliers. The low end of the range was quoted FOB Memphis, Tenn., with the upper end in Kentucky.
Black Sea: Reports keep coming in of lower pricing ideas. Some have talked of prices as low as $600/mt FOB by the end of the month. But by the end of last week, sources could only point to talks that left the price in the low-to-mid $800s/mt FOB. The market has been softening and is expected to continue to do so as the year wanes.
Middle East: Market sources report the contract price into India is on its way up. One Asian observer noted that while the price increase might be good news for the producers working under the contracts, the spot price has remained stable.
UREA
U.S. Gulf: Prompt granular barge prices continued to crash last week. Early in the week sources reported new business within the $380-$405/st FOB range. By week’s end, however, several players reported new prompt physical business at NOLA within the $325-$330/st FOB range. While some players cautioned that those numbers surely must be paper trades, others said the paper and physical markets had converged, with paper headed farther south.
One source said he still expects over 90 million acres of corn to be planted next spring in the U.S. He said near-term imports to the U.S. will be down and China is out of the export market. He added that it is just a matter of time before prices work their way back up. Asked how low prices could go, he said it depends on domestic production costs. With relatively low natural gas prices, plant shutdowns may still be a ways off.
According to DOC, U.S. August urea imports were actually up 59 percent, to 532,150 st from the year-ago 334,777 st. This influx may have had something to do with the rapid price decrease. July-August imports were up 20 percent, to 762,181 st from 634,772 st.
Eastern Cornbelt: Urea prices continued to fall, though there was no spot business to test the market. Most sources pegged the dealer market last week in the $470-$530/st FOB range, with expectations for further downward pricing adjustments due to much lower replacement costs.
Western Cornbelt: The rapidly falling urea market, coupled with a lack of buying activity, resulted in a wide range of prices reported last week. A Missouri source said dealer pricing for granular urea was at the $530/st FOB level early in the week, but would likely be down to $500/st FOB or lower by the end of the week. An Iowa source reported considerably lower numbers at the $425/st FOB level late last week, citing a big drop in the U.S. Gulf barge price. Those levels were down dramatically from the prior week, and were off some $300-$400/st from dealer pricing levels just one month ago.
Southern Plains: The urea market continued to tumble on a daily basis. Sources tagged the Inola, Okla., urea market at $445-$470/st FOB, with the lower number reported as the week progressed. Some said they were still hearing dealer pricing in the $500-$510/st FOB range at the port early in the week, but the market was in a freefall and new sales were all but nonexistent. Most sources, citing further reductions in prompt barge numbers as the week advanced, said still lower terminal values were likely by the end of the week.
South Central: Urea pricing continued to drop at a rapid pace. Sources quoted the terminal market in a broad range at $425-$485/st FOB, depending on location and time of the week. The upper end was reported in Mississippi at midweek, but that market had reportedly dropped to $450/st FOB to the dealer by Thursday. More were touting the bottom end of the range late in the week, with some expecting further near-term adjustments as NOLA barge values slip.
Southeast: Sources reported virtually no buying activity to test the fertilizer markets, prompting one source to comment that he didn’t “have a clue what the real markets are.” Several noted the weakness in replacement costs, particularly for urea and UAN, but the regional markets remain untested because “everyone is scared to death to do anything.” Added another source, “Our market is being affected by the economy just like everything else.”
While acknowledging much lower prices at the Gulf, sources continued to quote the granular urea market at $619-$625/st FOB port terminals to the dealer, with the upper end reported at Wilmington, N.C., early in the week. “We’re just going to wait and see,” said one supplier, noting absolutely zero demand for product at the moment.
India: IPL closed its tender Oct. 15 with just about every major player in the world participating. The surprising thing about the tender results was not the large number of tons offered, but the dramatically low prices offered.
The Arab Gulf suppliers appear to be determined not to be shut out again. They cut their offers in half from the previous STC tender of just a month ago. At the same time, offers – most likely from the Black Sea – show a drop of at least $100/mt.
Some traders were torn about making offers into this tender.
IPL canceled some of the orders placed from the July tender. At that time, the price was in the low $800s/mt CFR. The steady drop in prices since August led the Indian Finance Ministry to lean on the buying bodies to dump the old expensive material in favor of new, lower-priced tons.
While some traders are now left without a home for some of the older material, the only game in town is India. To not participate was never an option. Agents of IPL fanned out following the closing of the tender to negotiate lower prices with the Middle East producers. Sources say MITCO and some trading houses are also being approached. Just how many tons IPL takes will depend on the final price.
The IPL tender follows on page 7.
Observers say if IPL can get the prices from the Middle East down to at least the PIC offer of $350/mt FOB, chances are good it will take all the firm offers, for a total of 215,000 mt. Add another 75,000 mt from the sellers’ options and the MITCO firm offers, and IPL could close this tender out taking slightly more than 300,000 mt.
Sources speculate that if IPL stays around the 300,000 mt level, another tender should be expected within two weeks. If, however, IPL can successfully get the price below $350/mt FOB from the Middle East, chances are MITCO and the trader offers would quickly follow suit. The buyer could end up taking more than 300,000 mt, which may also mean a later date for the follow-up tender – if one is called at all during the remainder of this year.
Observers note that India is clearly in the driver’s seat for the rest of the year in the urea market.
Indonesia: PIM pushed back the deadline in its latest selling tender. The sale of 300,000 mt is now slated to close today, Monday, Oct. 20. The sale will be in six lots of 5,000 mt.
Sources say they would not be surprised to see at least 10,000 mt end up in India.
If the price is low enough, shipments may also wind up going to other Southeast Asian countries.
The last tender, a few weeks ago, sold 10,000 mt at $700/mt FOB. Industry observers say the price will have to be in the middle $300s/mt FOB to be competitive with the Middle East tons.
The other main competition in the region is the re-exported Chinese urea coming out of Vietnam. Because these tons are not hit with the 175 percent export duty from China, the price is significantly lower than what is offered from the Middle East or Yuzhnyy.
Sources expect to see a price drop of at least $325/mt in the tender.
If the price is too low for the Indonesians’ liking, said one trader, the tender will most likely be scrapped. The tons could be worked back into the Indonesian domestic market.
Middle East: With rising inventories and a growing fear they might be cut out of a major deal as the year closes, Middle East producers halved their prices so they could grab a piece of the Indian business.
The previous few tenders from Indian buyers had the Middle East suppliers iced out of any deals. At first, this lack of business was fine with the producers. They went into turnarounds and satisfied contract buyers. Warehouse inventories were kept to a minimum, and prices were able to soar with the rising prices of Yuzhnyy urea and other fertilizer markets.
The first real crack appeared last month, when the area producers offered tons in the low $700s/mt FOB. At the time, these offers represented a drop of $150/mt.
The offers were rejected.
That left producers with plants coming back online and asoftening market.
To ensure they would sell product to India, the producers aggressively cut their prices in the just-closed IPL tender.
Now, say sources, IPL agents are talking to the producers to secure even lower prices. One Asian source noted IPL might be willing to settle at the lowest of the Middle East offers of $350/mt FOB, but would rather take the price even lower.
Reportedly, the producers rejected the initial request for a lower price, but as of late Friday buyers and sellers were still talking.
Whether IPL accepts the Middle East offers or not, sources say the offers represent the basis for new prices for prills and granular in the region.
Sources are convinced that even if a deal is reached, the area price still has room to fall further. One observer noted that sub-$300/mt FOB is not out of the question. If that happens, the price will revert to where the year started.
Black Sea: Prices continue to fall. The lowest prices offered into India that are expected to come from the Black Sea have an estimated netback of $370-$395/mt FOB.
Within 24 hours of the tender closing, however, the talk immediately shifted to $350/mt FOB and lower.
Even as the offers into IPL reflect a price not seen since the beginning of the year, sources say the paper market moved to the $350/mt FOB area – and producers are entertaining deals at that level. No one could point to a deal actually done at that price, but the mere fact that producers are willing to talk with bidders at that level indicates a continued soft market.
The price has been sliding since August, when it hit a high of $815/mt FOB.
As with the Middle East, plants that were on turnaround are now coming back online. More production is hitting the market just as India steps up as the main game in town.
Industry observers had been warning of a pending correction in prices most of the summer. Once the Yuzhnyy price hit $815/mt FOB, most said that level was too high to be sustained. Buyers would back off and let reserves build up rather than pay close to $900/mt for delivered product.
IPL Tender |
|||||
| Supplier/Origin | Total Quantity Offered (mt) | Shipment Quantity (mt) | Price USD PMT | Discharge Port | |
| FOB | CFR | ||||
| Qafco/Qatar Prilled/Granular |
60,000 30,000(SO) |
30,000 OCT 30,000 Nov 30,000 Nov |
352.00 | ||
| Fertil/A. Dhabi Prilled |
50,000 15-20,000 (SO) |
Oct/Nov | 352.00 | ||
| Sabic /Saudi Arabia Granular/Prilled |
75,000 25,000 (SO) |
Oct./1st Half Nov 1st Half Nov |
351.00 | ||
| PIC/Kuwait Granular |
50,000 25,000 |
350.00 | |||
| Mitco/Malaysia Prilled/Granular |
50,000 (2-3 Lots) 25,000 (SO) |
Oct/Nov | 382.50 | West Coast | |
| Eurochem CIS |
105,000 (3 lots)
45,000 |
Oct. 25 | 398.00 400.00 396.00 396.00 |
West Coast East Coast Mundra/Kandla Mundra/Kandla |
|
| Transammonia/Open | 20-40,000
20-40,000 20-40,000 |
As Per Tender | 424.90 426.90 428.90 474.90 476.90 478.90 494.90 496.90 498.90 |
Mundra/Kandla Pipavav Tuti/Vizag Mundra/Kandla Pipavav Tuti/Vizag Mundra/Kandla Pipavav Tuti/Vizag |
|
| Dreymor/CIS | 30-50,000
30-50,000 |
Within 21 days after receipt of Letter of Credit |
429.85
449.85 |
||
| Gavilon/Open | 25-60,000
25-60,000 25-60,000 (SO) |
2nd Half Oct/ 1stHalf Nov 2nd Half Oct/1st Half Nov 1st Half Nov |
439.00
447.00 447.00 |
Mundra
Mundra Mundra |
|
| Ameropa/Open | 25-50,000 (1-2 Lots) 50-75,000 |
By Nov 10 | 418.50 418.50 |
Kandla-Mundra-Vizag | |
| Havi/Iran Granular |
20,000 | 1st Half Nov | 508.00 513.00 505.00 510.00 |
East Coast East Coast West Coast East Coast |
|
| Liven/Open | 15-20,000 (2 lots) | 465.00 | Chennai/Kandla/ Vizag/Paradip/ Tuticorin |
||
| Stirol/Yuzhnyy | 40,000 30,000 30,000 |
By Nov 22 Nov 6-8 Nov 16-19 |
415.00 415.00 415.00 |
||
| Keytrade/Open | 100-150,000 (Multiple Shipments) |
Oct/Nov | 419.80 | Kandla/Mundra | |
| Toepfer/Open Prilled/Granular |
25-40,000 25-40,000 (SO) 20-30,000 (SO) |
By Nov 22 By Nov. 30 |
398.75 398.75 418.50 |
Kandla Kandla Vizag |
EDA/Dubai/Open | 6-12,000+/-10% | Oct/Nov | 530.00 | 550.00 | Vizag |
| Swiss-Singapore | 60-75,000 (3-4 Lots) 20-25,000 (Bagged) |
November | 473.00 | 506.00 489.00 |
Kandla-Vizag-Chennai – New Mangalore |
Aiding the buyers are increasingly lower shipping costs.
Sources say that panamax shipping rates from Yuzhnyy to India are now in the mid-$30s/mt. This also represents a major savings for buyers.
One observer noted that without the IPL deal, a large number of tons will be sitting around Yuzhnyy with no place to go. Sources say if IPL takes only 300,000 mt from this tender, another one will have to be called within the next two weeks. Likewise, if that amount is all that is awarded, sources add that the tons will most likely come from the Middle East, leaving the Yuzhnyy tons homeless once again.
Sources report there are no vessels slated for pick-up this month. The pressure on producers will continue to build, say sources.
As the week closed, the best bet for the current price range is $350-$375/mt FOB – with no floor yet in sight.
Bangladesh: The country is likely to face a shortage of urea due to the closure of a unit. Zia fertilizer factory, a unit of BCIC, is scheduled to stop production for about month for overhauling and annual maintenance. A team of engineers and workers from China, some European countries, and India, along with local engineers, will carry out the overhauling. If no “major and complex problem” is found, the work will be completed by Nov. 19, according to the local media. The company hopes production levels will actually increase after the work. Current capacity is 528,000 mt/y.
BCIC has issued two tenders for the import of 75,000 mt of prilled/granular urea in bags. The breakdown showed that BCIC is looking to import 50,000 mt and 25,000 mt of prilled and granular urea, respectively, through two separate tenders in a maximum of six lots on a CFR (C) Chittagong or Mongla Port basis. The minimum offer quantity is 12,500 mt. Bids are due Nov. 17, with offers to remain valid up to Dec. 17, 2008.
NITROGEN SOLUTIONS
U.S.Gulf: Finding actual trades in a rapidly falling market has been hard to do in recent weeks. Last week, however, sources said a little business had been done, and it was as low as $300/st FOB. Others were reporting rumors of $290/st FOB.
U.S. UAN imports were off 17 percent in August, to 222,289 st from the year-ago 268,795, according to DOC. July-August imports were off 5 percent, to 410,816 st from the year-ago 434,656 st.
Eastern Cornbelt: UAN-32 was quoted in a broad range at $450-$512/st ($14.06-$16.00/unit) FOB regional terminals to the dealer, reflecting not only much lower replacement costs, but also the lack of new activity to test the market.
Western Cornbelt: Prompted by a huge drop in Gulf pricing, the regional UAN market appeared to be following urea. UAN-32 reference pricing remained as high as $525/st ($16.41/unit) FOB in the region early last week, but several sources said numbers in the $425/st ($13.28/unit) FOB range were circulating out of spot terminal locations as the week advanced. Sources reported no new buying to test those lower numbers.
Southern Plains: UAN-32 was tagged at $450-$460/st ($14.06-$14.38/unit) FOB regional production points, also down significantly from last report. The upper end of the range was quoted at $420/st for UAN-28 ($15.00/unit) FOB to the dealer out of spot Kansas shipping points
South Central: UAN appeared to be in a free-fall, with the rapid drop in the barge pricing leaving a wide range of terminal prices reported across the region. As of midweek, Mississippi sources reported terminal pricing for UAN-32 down to as low as $400/st ($12.50/unit) FOB, while sources in Arkansas continued to report dealer pricing at the $475/st ($14.84/unit) FOB level in a very thinly traded market.
Southeast: Several sources put the UAN-30 market at $460-$465/st ($15.33-$15.50/unit) FOB East Coast terminals, while acknowledging that the dealer price should be considerably less than that based on new replacement vessel cost indications at well under the $500/mt CFR level. “No one has a clue what the real market is, and nothing is going on,” said one.
AMMONIUM NITRATE
U.S.Gulf: Unlike urea and UAN, ammonium nitrate barge prices have been slower to move down. One observer noted that AN was slow to follow urea up, so why not be slow in coming down as well?
AN imports were off 32 percent in August, to 51,858 st from the year-ago 75,772 st. July-August imports were off 38 percent, to 88,439 st from 143,314 st.
Western Cornbelt: Ammonium nitrate was quoted at $540-$560/st FOB, down slightly from last report.
Southern Plains: Ammonium nitrate was quoted at $550-$560/st FOB Catoosa, Okla., down just slightly from last report, with limited supply and very little movement reported.
South Central: The ammonium nitrate market remained in the $530-$535/st FOB range in the region, down just slightly from last report, but sources reported very little new business to test the market.
Southeast: Ammonium nitrate pricing remained at $550/st FOB Tampa last week.
AMMONIUM SULFATE
Eastern Cornbelt: Granular ammonium sulfate remained at $495-$505/st FOB in the region, but several sources said they expected a downward pricing adjustment in the near term.
Western Cornbelt: Granular ammonium sulfate was pegged at $475-$495/st FOB in the region.
Southern Plains: Granular ammonium sulfate was unchanged at $410-$450/st FOB Texas shipping points, with the low FOB Freeport.
South Central: Granular ammonium sulfate was tagged at $430-$450/st FOB regional warehouses, which was down from last report. Sources also said inventories were not as tight due to lack of movement.
Southeast: Granular ammonium sulfate was unchanged at $465-$470/st FOB and $490-$495/st DEL in the region, but several sources said a big price drop was imminent, with rumors of one supplier expected to drop postings by $180-$220/st in the near term. As of late Thursday, no confirmation was forthcoming on that pricing adjustment.
U.S. Imports: Imports were off 29 percent in August, to 23,381 st from the year-ago 33,083 st. July-August imports were also off 29 percent, to 40,360 st from 57,126 st.
PHOSPHATES
Central Florida: Watching and waiting for the Central Florida DAP market to move has been akin to watching for a mountain to wear down – it will happen, but perhaps not in your lifetime.
There were no new sales in Florida last week, and there was nothing on the horizon to spark a fire. Meanwhile, the price of corn was tanking last week, just as farmers in the Midwest were beginning to bring in their crops. At the same time, Mosaic was continuing its curtailment of production, but inventories were growing.
Sooner or later, and when business does kick back in gear, prices will have to come down. That will not likely be a disaster to phosphate producers, because the price of commodities in general was on the downswing. Ammonia prices will drop, and negotiations for new fourth quarter sulfur prices were headed in the same direction. With lower input costs, the price of DAP and MAP may still result in a profit margin near the same high levels, or at least will be very handsome.
Agrifos was back up and running last week, after restarting the previous weekend. Approximately 75,000 st of production was lost, and the company was attempting to determine its price structure based on the current market.
With no new sales, the Central Florida DAP price range last week remained at $1,070-$1,080/st FOB. PCS Sales’ Central Florida reference price was unchanged at $1,070/st FOB for DAP and had a $25/st FOB premium for MAP. Mosaic’s asking price was $1,090/st FOB for DAP and $1,115/st FOB for MAP. CF’s price was $900/st FOB for DAP, and its MAP was $940/st FOB, which was a little more realistic.
U.S Gulf: The NOLA DAP barge market was the bright spot of all the major markets last week, and it was incredibly slow. Few barges remain on the river because traders took a hesitant approach out of fear of getting stuck with high-priced barges that will return less than the original investment. Dealers were waiting on farmers to finish harvesting their crops to see what demand would be, and farmers were not showing their hands. With the price of corn falling on a regular basis, the outlook for a robust season was far from optimistic. Even with Mosaic’s curtailment at Donalsonville and Central Florida, inventories were on the rise. In September, inventories rose about 29,000 mt, despite massive shipments to India.
Offers on the market reflected the reality of the situation. One trader said he had been trying to sell a barge all week at $750/st FOB and would have gone even lower if he could have found an outlet. Another pointed out that farmers hate to pay taxes to the government, but they can do math. This year, it might be better for them to pay taxes on the healthy profits from this year than buy fertilizer for the next season. While that may help to offset another record deficit, it would not help spur the economy.
There has been some movement out of warehouses, but not at the levels needed to get the market moving. The stagnant market was causing a financial crunch for some traders who have contracts based on current market prices. They still have to take the tons, but they can’t resell the product at equal or higher prices. As one said, “The market went higher than anyone anticipated, and when it comes down, it will be by big amounts quickly.”
Sales last week were in the $780-$785/st FOB range. This set the NOLA DAP barge range, which was down from the previous week’s $832-$835/st FOB. MAP barges were $25-$60/st FOB more than DAP. Mosaic’s asking price for NOLA DAP barges was $1,100/st FOB and $1,125/st FOB for MAP, but the company has not set new barge prices since the market began reversing. As of last week, posted prices meant little to the market.
Eastern Cornbelt: The DAP market continued to slide, with dealer pricing reported last week in the $940-$965/st level FOB regional warehouses. MAP was $25/st higher than DAP, but sources reported no new sales to test either market last week. 10-34-0 remained at $1,150-$1,200/st FOB, with the low continuing to be reported in Ohio on a spot basis.
Western Cornbelt: Phosphate pricing was also in a slide, with most sources quoting the DAP market in the $940-$950/st FOB range and MAP $25/st higher. Several said they expected further downward pricing adjustments late in the week.
10-34-0 remained at $1,200-$1,250/st FOB in the region.
Southern Plains: Phosphate pricing was also dropping fast, although new sales were hard to come by. “We have to get to a point where we get some physical movement,” said one source, noting that phosphate movement on pre-plant wheat was virtually nil. The DAP market had reportedly dipped to $830-$850/st FOB Catoosa, with MAP priced $20-$25/st higher.
10-34-0 was reported at $1,200-$1,250/st FOB, unchanged from last report. Availability was said to be loosening up somewhat due to lack of demand.
South Central: Phosphate prices were also sliding, but new sales were nonexistent. DAP was quoted in a broad range at $850-$895/st FOB regional warehouses to the dealer, with the low reported in Arkansas. MAP was $25/st higher than DAP, and TSP was reported in the same range as DAP, where available. All three ranges were down dramatically from last report.
U.S. Exports: Neither PhosChem nor any other domestic source made any new export sales last week, but several vessels went to India last month, according to data from The Fertilizer Institute.
TFI reported 610,450 mt exported in September, which was 22.7 percent ahead of the same month last year – and, no surprise, India led the way with 513,686 mt, while Japan was second at 55,745 mt, and Chile third in line with 18,356 mt. For the calendar year-to-date, India has been the major buyer at 2,576,633 mt, followed by Japan at 251,080 mt, and Australia at 168,238 mt. Total DAP exports so far this year were 3,684,811 mt, an increase of 16.4 percent over 2007.
TFI said MAP sales were down again in September by 40.1 percent, with total exports of 149,122 mt. Canada was the major buyer at 53,440 mt, with Australia second at 29,815 mt, and Brazil 28,936 mt. Canada has been the biggest customer for the calendar-year-to-date and took 420,302 mt; Australia was second at 274,415 mt, and Brazil third from the top at 270,879 mt. Thus far this year, MAP exports amounted to 1,353,213 mt, a decrease of 18.8 percent in comparison to the previous year.
With no new sales last week, the export DAP price range remained at $1,013-$1,015/mt FOB.
Pakistan: The country’s Economic Coordination Committee (ECC) has approved the subsidy for DAP. The total impact is expected to be Rs. 27 billion (US$337.5 million), and the price capping facility will be available until Dec. 31, 2008, to facilitate the farmers during the wheat sowing season.
POTASH
Eastern Cornbelt: The potash market was pegged at $870-$920/st FOB in the region, reflecting a pricing drop from last report – although new business was nonexistent.
Western Cornbelt: Potash pricing was starting to show some cracks. Sources tagged the dealer price last week at $875-$900/st FOB regional warehouses, with the low reported in Missouri for red granular potash. Postings remained as high as $925/st FOB, depending on grade and location.
Southern Plains: The potash market remained at $875-$900/st FOB regional warehouses from secondary sources, though movement was at a standstill. Most sources were touting the low end of that range, and some speculated that potash, too, was on its way down. “High prices take care of high prices,” reasoned one source.
Posted potash prices at Carlsbad, N.M., included 60 percent granular at $800/st FOB; 60 percent standard at $794/st FOB; 62 percent standard at $820/st FOB; 62 percent fine standard at $823/st FOB; and 62 percent granular at $826/st FOB.
South Central: The potash market showed signs of slippage in the region last week, although interest from prospective buyers was minimal. Sources tagged the dealer market at $835-$890/st FOB regional warehouses, with the low FOB Vicksburg, Miss. The upper end was reported in Arkansas, but sources said that level was “probably too high.”
Southeast: The potash market remained at $920-$930/st DEL in the region from secondary sources.
U.S. Imports: Potassium muriate imports were up 6 percent to 799,022 st in August, up from the year-ago 756,428 st. July-August imports were up 5 percent, to 1.52 million st from 1.45 million st.
SULFUR
Tampa: Late last week, a crack appeared in the dam on the negotiations for fourth quarter sulfur prices. Mosaic signed a deal with its largest supplier, believed to be ExxonMobil, for a new price of $150/lt, which would amount to a decrease from the third quarter of $465.50-$467.50/lt. Shortly before, PotashCorp said it was suspending its negotiations for the fourth quarter. If the deal Mosaic struck holds, a flood of settlements could quickly follow. However, until all contracts are settled, the price range in Green Markets will not change.
Prices on the world sulfur market have been falling faster than the Dow on a bad day, and spot sales in the $100-$120 mt range were believed to have already happened – and some may have been even lower. China was in negotiations for new prices for the fourth quarter of this year and the first quarter of next year, but it was unclear how much that country would take, or even how much it still had in storage.
For the most part, refineries on the Gulf Coast were back in operation last week, and only a couple reported problems. Meanwhile, supplies were back to normal and transportation was not a problem, although rail rates were scheduled to rise 10-15 percent next year – despite the sharp fall in fuel prices.
Other contracts for the fourth quarter will likely be settled during the next week around the same $150/lt price.
West Coast: Contracts on the West Coast were settled at a wide range of prices, anywhere from as low as $75/mt to $125/mt, depending on the situation of the buyer.
Vancouver: Space for additional supplies of sulfur at Vancouver was becoming severely limited last week, as the international market has taken a nosedive. Negotiations with China were still underway, but there was no report of progress.
U.S. Imports: August imports were up 36 percent to 254,694 st from the year-ago 187,057 st. July-August imports were up 63 percent, to 499,444 st from 307,263 st.