AMMONIA
U.S. Gulf/Tampa: Nothing new was reported last week in the Tampa or NOLA markets. According to sources there was speculation as to what February business might be done at Tampa, but no firm offers.
Citing the $125/mt DEL Tampa price for ammonia, PotashCorp executives were pressed by analysts last week as to whether Trinidad ammonia plants could make a profit. The company said that it was breaking even in Trinidad and had been able to sell product at $150/mt to non-Tampa destinations. The company expects to make a profit off Trinidad operations in the first quarter and particularly noted urea, which it said has seen a $100 increase in recent weeks.
Eastern Cornbelt: The anhydrous ammonia market remained at $475-$575/st FOB in the region, with the low for cash tons in Illinois and the upper end on a spot basis in Ohio. Although sources continued to report prepay offers on the table at the $550/st FOB mark or higher in the region, some suppliers were reportedly withdrawing programs as the end of January approaches.
Western Cornbelt: Sources reported spot ammonia pricing as low as $400/st FOB terminals in Iowa last week, while delivered tons could reportedly be had at the $437/st mark in Missouri from Oklahoma production points. Reference prices for forward contract tons remained much higher, with one supplier posted at $900/st FOB in Nebraska, $905/st FOB in Missouri, and $910/st FOB in Iowa for February through June shipments.
California: Ammonia prices were down from last report. Effective Jan. 6, Calamco’s anhydrous ammonia postings in the California market dropped to $575/st truck-DEL and $620/st rail-DEL, reflecting a drop of $180/st from the company’s previous postings. Calamco’s aqua ammonia posting moved on Jan. 6 to $155/st FOB in California, down from the previous $185/st FOB level.
On Jan. 13, Agrium reposted anhydrous ammonia at $575/st truck-DEL in central California and $580/st truck-DEL in northern California.
Pacific Northwest: Sources pegged the anhydrous ammonia market at $550-$650/st DEL in the region, with the low for prompt tons and the upper level reported for spring prepay offers.
Western Canada: The anhydrous ammonia market was pegged at $799-$844/mt DEL in Western Canada, reflecting an increase of roughly $70/mt from last report.
Black Sea: Russia and Ukraine came to terms last week on their natural gas dispute. Even though Russian natural gas is once again flowing into and through Ukraine, sources say the state of the ammonia market is not yet strong enough to encourage plants that shut down in late December and early January to restart.
The absence of serious production restarting raises questions from Asian sources about how large a role Yuzhnyy and other Black Sea ports will play in the near-term ammonia market.
Contracted tons are being loaded in Yuzhnyy. Sources say many of those tons are coming from the storage tanks instead of new production.
Middle East: IPCC/Iran reportedly sold one cargo at $145/mt FOB. At the same time, other area producers are now dealing with prices closer to $155/mt FOB.
The Iranian business pushes up the low end of the ammonia market in the area. The other deals confirm the upper end.
Producers are now starting their talks at $200/mt FOB. Sources say no deals have yet been made at that level. This level should be reached within the next week or so, however.
Sources report that supplies in the area are limited with some producers. At the same time, this situation might push prices up. Other producers face a problem of getting their vessels into the right place at the right time.
Asia: Buyers in Taiwan and South Korea have reportedly begun to step back into the market to refill storage tanks.
Sources say the buying is not at levels similar to just six months ago, but enough to make sellers happy.
Mitsubishi reportedly picked up a cargo from MITCO in Malaysia at $200/mt FOB. This price was one quick indicator of a stronger ammonia market in the area.
Mitsubishi is staying with its plans to keep its Indonesian plant down until the end of the month. Sources say the Japanese firm may keep the plant closed a bit longer if prices don’t rebound sufficiently.
Sources report that the Burrup facility in Australia is making preparations to restart soon. If the plant comes back online, it will be adding more ammonia to a soft but strengthening market. One Asian source noted that if Burrup comes in too fast, any gains in pricing could be wiped out.
UREA
U.S. Gulf: Granular barge prices continue to strengthen based on demand from wheat country. Sources said demand from Catoosa and Inola remained strong, and Koch’s Enid plant remained down. Despite the demand, sources reported prices have not surged as in recent weeks. Most were calling the market last week within the $300-$311/st FOB range, with $307-$311/st FOB reported toward the end of the week.
Eastern Cornbelt: Granular urea was quoted in the $350-$360/st FOB range to the dealer out of most terminals last week, with the low reported in Illinois and the upper number out of Ohio River shipping points.
Western Cornbelt: Sources quoted the granular urea market at $350-$360/st FOB to the dealer last week. One contact confirmed new sales at the $355/st FOB level for prepay, noting that few dealers have any room for prompt tons. A regional supplier was reportedly referencing forward contract urea FOB Pine Bend, Minn., at the $380/st mark for February, with delivered urea posted at $450/st in North Dakota and northern Minnesota.
California: The granular urea market remained at $440-$460/st FOB to the dealer, with postings as high as $475/st FOB in desert areas of the state.
Pacific Northwest: Granular urea was up slightly from last report, with sources quoting the dealer market at $435-$445/st DEL and $390-$400/st FOB plant gate.
Western Canada: Granular urea was quoted at $560-$585/mt DEL in the region, up some $40/mt from last report.
Pakistan: TCP scrubbed its tender of Jan. 17. Sources say the buyer was not pleased with the dramatic increased proposed prices by the offers. A new tender will close Feb. 2.
Both the Dec. 31, 2008, tender and the most recent one showed a dramatic increase in pricing ideas. In December the lowest offer, from Dreymoor, was at $236.17/mt CFR. By this month the lowest offer tender came from Helm at $317/mt CFR. All other offers were similarly priced higher. Sabic, for example, offered 50,000 at $265/mt CFR in December. The January offer was for 25,000 mt at $350/mt CFR.
The offers from eight companies in January only totaled 250,000 mt, which was the exact amount TCP wanted to buy. The Dec. 31, 2008, tender, on the other hand, came in with 570,000 mt being offered, with an additional 75,000 mt in options.
Tender results follow.
| Offering Company | Quantity Offered | Origin (S/O-Seller’s Option) | US$/mt C&F |
| Helm | 25,000 | Open at S/O | 317.00 |
| Toepfer | 25,000 | Qatar – Egypt – Malaysia – Open at S/O | 337.75 |
| Transfert | 35- 40,000 35- 40,000 S/O |
Open at S/O | 338.00 |
| Swiss Singapore | 25-30,000 | Open at S/O | 344.00 |
| Dreymoor | 25-30,000 | Open at S/O | 349.50 |
| SABIC | 25,000 | Saudi Arabia | 350.00 |
| Ameropa | 25-35,000 | Open at S/O | 355.00 |
| Transammonia | 25-40,000 | Ukraine – CIS – Egypt – open at S/O | 380.00 |
Sources say TCP might be able to get a few dollars shaved off the figures offered in January, but no one expects offers to be as low as just a month ago.
Working against TCP is the perception that Pakistan is desperate for urea in a short time. Also, other buyers, from India to South Korea, are stepping in and making inquiries for cargoes.
On the supply side, the price of Black Sea material is moving up and Chinese product is already overpriced for the global market. That leaves the Middle East suppliers, who now think the price should be $310-$330/mt FOB instead of the last-done price closer to $245/mt FOB.
Despite Pakistan’s balking at higher prices, the local media continues to report desperate farmers blocking rail lines and stations, demanding urea.
India: The industry was awash in rumors that STC would call a tender this week, possibly as soon as Jan. 26. Sources would argue that the tender will occur, and then would turn around and give reasons why the Indians could wait another month or so.
The bottom line, said one trader, is that India is not desperate for tons. They will need more urea for their application season, but can afford to wait four to six weeks before placing orders.
When an Indian buyer comes in, say sources, it will have to pay more than more recent purchases. On the positive side for India, said one trader, the price will be nowhere near the record prices of last year at this time.
Gas-based urea plants have suffered an overall production loss of 170,000 mt because of the reported disruption in allocated gas supplies in the wake of the recent three-day strike of oil workers, according to a rough estimate by The Fertilizer Association of India (FAI). The FAI says that allocated gas supplies to these plants were restored Jan. 11 on withdrawal of the strike, and most of them have resumed normal operations since then. However, some urea plants are still on partial load to due to start-up and other technical problems. FAI says that gas-based urea units are currently facing an overall 34 percent shortfall in natural gas supply against their requirements. There is also concern that a shutdown of Petronet LNG’s Dahej regasification terminal for expansion could also disrupt gas supplies.
Black Sea: Urea plants that shut down because of the natural gas dispute between Russian and Ukraine are expected to be back online soon. In the meantime, however, supplies from the area are limited.
Sources report growing demand from Asian buyers, coupled with limited supplies, has pushed the Yuzhnyy price up. Traders now say the price range has narrowed to $290-$310/mt FOB, with prices expected to go way past $300/mt in the next couple of weeks.
Middle East: Egypt is reported to have concluded a deal at $350/mt FOB for its granular urea.
Sabic submitted an offer of $350/mt CFR to Pakistan for an estimated netback of $335-$340/mt FOB.
Asian sources say producers are only willing to talk to buyers if the starting numbers are above $320/mt FOB.
Despite all the talk of what Arab Gulf producers want for their material, no one has been able to point to an actual deal that moved the same price that has dominated the market for the past few weeks.
Reportedly, the producers are now more interested in making deals based on delivered prices rather than FOB. It seems the freight rates have plummeted for most areas. Freight rates of only $8-$10/mt are being mentioned to India’s west coast. A couple more dollars gets a cargo to Pakistan, and maybe $5/mt more gets a shipment to India’s east coast.
With delivered offers at $350/mt FOB now the starting point for Arab Gulf producers, the netbacks – once the deals are consummated – will show a dramatic rise in Middle East prices.
Helping the producers are the high prices from China and limited quantities from the Black Sea. This combination is focusing the attention squarely on the Arab Gulf.
China: This week marks the beginning of the year of the ox under the lunar calendar. Most of China will be closed this week as its residents get together with families and friends. As the new year approaches, more Asian sources are convinced that Beijing will not make any changes to its export duty plan. Feb. 1 will most likely see an increase of the export duty for urea to 110 percent from the current 10 percent.
Some observers say the export duty issue may be revisited for alterations later in the year. The Chinese economy is hurting just as all other economies. Sources say the economic planners in Beijing may want to make Chinese product more attractive to offshore buyers.
Asia: Indonesia will most likely have some material for export in March, said one trader. The supply of natural gas to the urea and ammonia plants has been worked out, along with a plan to ensure local demand is fully covered.
Sources say once the government is convinced there will be no domestic shortages of urea, PIM will be allowed to start selling cargoes offshore.
The northern part of the Philippines is still short a cargo or two for the current application season. Sources say attempts to find the tons necessary are running into the problems of a strengthening market.
The border trade between Vietnam and China is showing signs of strength.
Once, traders were able to pick up small cargoes – 1-5,000 mt – for regional shipment at reasonable prices. Now, say traders, the price has moved up dramatically. Just a couple of weeks ago the offering price was close to $300/mt. Now it is closer to $340/mt, with some sellers holding out for $350/mt.
Thailand and Sri Lanka are also in the market. Sri Lanka will hold a couple of tenders either this week or next. Thai buyers have been kicking a few tires looking for deals as well.
NITROGEN SOLUTIONS
U.S. Gulf: The market is being called $215-$225/st FOB ($6.72-$7.03/unit). Sources reported that for the most part quantities of railcars are being shipped, but that barges themselves are hard to place due to full inventories. Sources also said forward product was more in demand than prompt.
Eastern Cornbelt: The UAN market was tagged at $8.25-$8.75/unit FOB regional terminals, with the low quoted by an Indiana source for spot prepay offers and the upper end reported in Illinois for immediate take.
Western Cornbelt: The UAN-32 market was up slightly from last report. Most sources tagged the dealer market at $280-$290/st ($8.75-$9.06/unit) FOB regional terminals, up from the prior week’s report of prompt tons available for as low as $260/st ($8.13/unit) FOB on a spot basis.
California: Postings for UAN-32 from traditional regional suppliers remained as high as $380-$400/st ($11.88-$12.50/unit) FOB terminals in California, but sources said rail-delivered solutions tons were coming into the region for as low as $285-$338/st ($8.91-$10.56/unit).
Pacific Northwest: The UAN-32 market was pegged at $320-$350/st ($10.00-$10.94/unit) DEL in the region, with the upper end reported as the common dealer price for truck-delivered tons from regional suppliers and the low for some railed material available for prompt ship to some locations.
Western Canada: UAN-28 pricing was up slightly, with sources quoting the dealer market at $353-$368/mt ($12.61-$13.14/unit) DEL in the region last week.
AMMONIUM NITRATE
Western Cornbelt: The ammonium nitrate market remained at $250-$300/st FOB in the region.
California: No market was reported for ammonium nitrate in California. CAN-17 pricing was down from last report, with sources quoting the market at $270-$285/st FOB. CAN-17 postings were reported as high as $310/st FOB in some parts of the state. AN-20 was posted at $245/st DEL in California.
Pacific Northwest: Ammonium nitrate pricing was reported at $353-$368/st DEL for the last done business, though some speculated that new pricing might be up from that based on higher urea values. CAN-17 remained at $250-$255/st FOB in the region, with Agrium’s Dec. 12 posted level at $255/st FOB Kennewick, Wash.
AMMONIUM SULFATE
Eastern Cornbelt: Granular ammonium sulfate was tagged at $150-$175/st FOB in the region.
Western Cornbelt: Granular ammonium sulfate was pegged at $150-$175/st FOB, with delivered tons from Honeywell referenced at the $150/st level as well.
California: Ammonium sulfate pricing was down from last report. Sources tagged the market at $300-$307/st FOB to the dealer, with postings out of desert warehouses as high as $335/st FOB.
Pacific Northwest: Ammonium sulfate was reported at $175-$195/st FOB in Idaho, with delivered tons quoted at $210-$220/st in the region, depending on grade and location. Those levels were down from last report.
Western Canada: Granular ammonium sulfate remained at $350-$355/mt DEL in the region.
PHOSPHATES
Central Florida: As phosphate production plants continued to be curtailed or shut down in Florida last month, inventories grew, which was not a good sign. However, sales have increased – at least somewhat – since around the beginning of the year, and most believe that trend will continue, although it did not last week. Winter kept its icy grip on most of the country, including Florida, and farmers were holding off work in their fields.
“People are reluctant to buy right now,” a source said, but added a large number of railcars had been moved during the previous two weeks. Conditions should begin to improve in the next few weeks, and farmers will start preparing the ground for spring crops, which means more fertilizer may move out of warehouses.
As a result of the wild ride of phosphate prices the past year and the rapidly falling price during the second half, many buyers were waiting to see when a stable price might be reached. Last week that appeared to have been achieved.
When the price of phosphate was high, so was the cost of raw materials, which became in short supply. Last week negotiations for first-quarter sulfur prices looked like a settlement was near, after Mosaic reached an agreement with several of its sulfur suppliers at a new price of $0.00/lt Tampa, down from the previous quarter’s $150/lt. The lower sulfur price will help keep the cost of production down for phosphate companies.
Producers took another look at MAP last week and decided to lower the difference between that product and DAP to $10/st FOB, down from a premium of $25-$40/st FOB over DAP.
The Central Florida DAP price range was unchanged last week at $310-$370/st FOB. CF was said to be asking $310/st FOB. PCS Sales, which had been holding at $1,070/st FOB, withdrew its published price entirely last week because its plants were no longer in operation. PCS Sales’s parent, PotashCorp, told analysts last week that it was “folly” to lower prices in the nitrogen and phosphate market anyway, as those producers were not going to increase orders when prices go down.
Mosaic had no posted price for Central Florida, but was said to be selling for as low as $310/st FOB. The most recent price from Agrifos was $350/st FOB for trucks $340/st FOB for rail shipments.
PotashCorp says its Florida finished product production is curtailed thru the first half, and that the Aurora, N.C., plant will run at reduced rates through the first quarter.
U.S. Gulf: After a flurry of business when Mosaic offered prompt DAP at $300/st FOB a couple of weeks ago, business slowed last week as farmers and the industry hunkered down for winter. Most believe activity will end hibernation within the next couple of weeks, as the spring season approaches.
Business at warehouses in Arkansas was reasonably brisk for the time of year, but Texas was suffering through a difficult drought.
The national economy continued to be a factor in the slowdown of agriculture but grains were still profitable last week, although nowhere near the highs of last year. Still, corn was well worth planting and using fertilizers.
Mosaic’s Donaldsonville phosphate processing plant, which shut down in mid-December, remained down last week. Currently, enough barges remain on the river to meet demand, but additional supplies will likely come from Central Florida either by rail or cross-Gulf shipment. Overall, the number of loaded NOLA DAP barges on the river system has been cut sharply by recent sales by both producers and traders.
Last week, the premium for MAP over DAP fell from $25-$40/st FOB to a more reasonable $10/st FOB. Mosaic was continuing to make sales on a formula basis, but a few traders actually set the range with sales in the $310-$315/st FOB range, which set the price range. The previous week, the range was a wider $294-$320/st FOB. Prices appeared to be stabilizing in that range.
Eastern Cornbelt:The DAP market continued to be quoted in a broad range at $350-$425/st FOB in the region, with the low out of river terminals and the upper end out of inland warehouses to the dealer. MAP was $10-$20/st higher than DAP out of most locations. One supplier was referencing forward contract DAP for February at $390/st FOB Peoria and $405/st FOB Cincinnati.
10-34-0 remained in a broad range as well at $650-$850/st FOB, with the low reported in Illinois and the upper end quoted by Ohio and Indiana sources FOB local terminals.
Western Cornbelt: The DAP market continued to be reported in the $350-$375/st FOB range out of regional warehouses. One source quoted the dealer market at the $365/st FOB level with confirmed sales, which he said was up slightly from the previous week’s low. MAP was quoted at $365-$385/st FOB to the dealer. Forward contract prices for February included DAP at $360/st FOB St. Louis, Mo., and $370/st FOB Pine Bend, with MAP at $380/st FOB Pine Bend.
The 10-34-0 market remained at $550-$675/st FOB in the region, with the low in Nebraska and the upper end in Iowa.
California: MAP and DAP were pegged at $455-$460/st DEL or FOB warehouse, reflecting a sizable drop from last report. Simplot made its downward pricing adjustment on Jan. 6, while Agrium’s MAP postings dropped on Jan. 8 to $460/st FOB or DEL in California and Arizona. Simplot’s list price for 0-45-0 TSP with Avail was $425/st rail-DEL or FOB French Camp.
The 16-20-0 market was quoted at $320-$327/st FOB, down $60/st from last report. 10-34-0 was also down some $60-$70/st from last report at $453-$473/st FOB, with the low reported in the Central Valley and the high in desert areas of the state.
Super phosphoric acid (SPA) and merchant grade acid (MGA) were quoted at $10.00/unit DEL in the region, with Simplot referenced at $10.20/unit FOB for MGA in California. Agrium’s Jan. 1 phosphoric acid postings included $1,000/st rail-DEL for both SPA and MGA in California, Arizona, and Nevada. On Jan. 21, Agrium distributed a phosphoric acid price schedule starting Feb. 1, with both SPA and MGA levels remaining at the $1,000/st rail-DEL mark in the region.
Pacific Northwest: The MAP market was down from last report at $445-$455/st FOB or DEL in the region, with DAP in the same range. Effective Jan. 8, Agrium’s MAP postings dropped to $445/st DEL to Montana and Wyoming, $450/st DEL to southern Idaho, Utah, Nevada, and Oregon’s Malheur County, and $450/st FOB and $455/st DEL in Washington, northern Idaho, and Oregon excluding Malheur County.
16-20-0 pricing was also down, with sources tagging the dealer market at $300-$305/st DEL in the region. Dealer postings were reported as high as $335/st FOB from some regional suppliers. Simplot’s reference prices for TSP with Avail fell in the $420-$425/st FOB range.
10-34-0 pricing covered a wide range, with the low reported at $445-$455/st FOB in Oregon, which was down considerably from last report. The upper end was quoted as high as $570/st FOB in Washington to the dealer, but sources reported little interest and no news sales at that level.
SPA and MGA were quoted at $10.00/unit DEL in the region. Effective Jan. 1, Agrium’s phosphoric acid postings dropped to $1,000/st rail-DEL for both SPA and MGA in Utah, Washington, Oregon, Idaho, and Montana. On Jan. 21, Agrium released a new price sheet effective Feb. 1, with SPA and MGA remaining at $1,000/st rail-DEL in Washington, Oregon, Idaho, Utah, and Montana.
Western Canada: MAP pricing was steady at $790-$825/ mt DEL to the dealer in Western Canada.
U.S. Export: India claimed to have made a purchase of 1 million mt of DAP last week, but neither the price nor the identity of the supplier was available. However, the most likely suspect in the mystery was the Russians. PhosChem said it was not them, China had taken itself out of the game, and the North Africans were holding out on further cutting their price for a phosphoric acid deal with the Indians. Without the acid, the Indians’ only alternative was to import DAP. If a deal on acid cannot be reached, it will likely prove to be a boon to other phosphate suppliers in the world, including PhosChem.
China was closing its door on phosphate exports last week; in about a month, export tariffs will rise from 10 percent to 110 percent, which will effectively take them out of the market for several months until taxes go back down.
South America was suffering a drought, and phosphate sales into that continent have been and will probably continue to be down until the rain comes. That has been a prime market for U.S. phosphate producers, which have seen sales sharply curtailed in recent months.
The export DAP price fell to $330-$340/mt FOB.
POTASH
Eastern Cornbelt: Potash was quoted at $720-$800/st FOB regional warehouses, depending on grade and location. One Illinois source pegged the common dealer range in the $720-$775/st FOB range last week, but said there was no business to test those numbers.
Western Cornbelt: Sources reported some interest in phosphate and nitrogen products for spring at both the retail and wholesale level, but potash sales remained very slow. Sources continued to quote potash out of regional warehouses in the $700-$750/st FOB range to the dealer, depending on grade and location. Just what pricing level is required before buyers come to the table is a point of debate. “Upper management at the potash companies have no idea what’s going on in the trenches,” said one source, who reported a consensus among retailers that farmers “won’t pay $800 or $900 for potash.” Several dealers continued to indicate they already had enough potash in the bin to carry them through spring, with some expecting carryover at the end of the planting season.
California: Several sources talked of potash usage cutbacks due to high retail prices. One Central Valley source said only 10 percent of the almond ground in his territory has gotten any potash so far this winter, and he said growers will likely apply just a third of what they normally due in the next month.
Muriate of potash pricing remained at $849-$875/st FOB and $875-$900/st DEL in the region.
Sulfate of potash was quoted at $1,028-$1,055/st FOB depending on grade, reflecting a significant drop in pricing from last report. The low end of the range was reported for granular SOP, while the upper end reflected water soluble SOP pricing.
Potassium nitrate was steady at $1,310-$1,380/st FOB in the state, with the low for bulk and the upper end for bagged product.
Pacific Northwest: Potash remained at $840-$900/st DEL in the region. Potash sales remained all but nonexistent. “Who is going to spend $850 for potash to raise $3.00 corn?” said one contact. “That’s a tough sell.”
SULFUR
Tampa: Early last week, Mosaic began settling first-quarter prices with some of its suppliers at $0.00/lt, down $150/lt from the previous quarter, which set the new price at $0.00/lt. Not a bad deal, considering the supplier provides the transportation. However, Mosaic had more contracts to settle and PCS was still negotiating, so the new range did not become official. The new price will be posted once all major contracts have been settled.
A rumor, which was not confirmed, held Mississippi Phosphates was being paid triple digits to take sulfur from the nearby Chevron refinery. Another sulfur customer near refineries said his company was being paid to take sulfur.
Most people have noticed the price of gasoline at the pump rose during the past several weeks, while the price of a barrel of oil declined to low levels. That was not the result of refineries curtailing or shutting down due to problems with sulfur storage, but was simply going in the pockets of refiners. Wherever possible, excess sulfur was simply being put onto the ground, in holes, or in landfills. Sulfur storage facilities at Tampa were said to be full, and sulfur was still being blocked at Galveston. A few refineries were undergoing turnarounds, but nothing out of the usual.
Martin was in the final stages of starting its second priller at Beaumont, which will also help ease storage problems. Portions of the prilled sulfur were going onto vessels for storage, and hopefully later offshore sales.
Vancouver: A source said Canadian sulfur producers had signed some contracts with China in the $50-$60/mt DEL range, which will help ease their storage burden. However, blocking sulfur has been a way of life in the oil sands areas for years, so it has been less of a problem than along the Gulf.
Western Australia: BHP Billiton has announced that it will suspend indefinitely nickel production at its Ravensthorpe facility. Some 1,800 may lose their jobs as a result, according to the local press. The facility also uses a huge quantity of sulfur for acid production.