AMMONIA
U.S. Gulf/Tampa: New business for Tampa should be just around the corner, according to sources, with sellers now eyeing higher numbers of $340-$350/mt DEL based on higher global price ideas.
As of Sept. 24, Direct Hedge (DH) has October paper trades at $325-$340/mt, with a big fall-off after that to $300-$320/mt for November-March.
Eastern Cornbelt: Anhydrous ammonia remained in the $350-$370/st FOB range for spot tons to the dealer, but sources reported no new sales to test the market. Forward contract ammonia for October through December was referenced by one supplier at $360-$370/st FOB in the region, depending on location.
Western Cornbelt: Sources reported few changes to spot fertilizer prices, and little movement to test the markets. The ammonia spot market remained at $330-$360/st FOB in the region, with the low in Nebraska. One supplier was offering forward contract tons for October through December at $330/st FOB in Nebraska, $355/st FOB Iowa terminals, and $360/st FOB in Missouri.
Southern Plains: Fertilizer movement was slow in the region. Sources continued to talk of brisk ammonia movement earlier on preplant wheat, but dry movement was only slowly underway as weather conditions permitted.
The anhydrous ammonia market was tagged at $290-$310/st FOB to the dealer, with the low end quoted out of most regional production points last week.
Middle East: Mitsui is once again leading the rush to higher prices. Earlier this month, Mitsui paid $270/mt FOB when the marker was hovering near $250/mt FOB. Last week the Japanese trading house paid $300/mt FOB for 15,000 mt from Qafco for late October loading.
Asian sources say the purchase of second half October material at this time fits in with the normal buying pattern.
One trader noted there is nothing special to see in the purchase, other than the tightness of the Middle East market continuing.
Chances are the tons are headed to India, which continues its strong demand.
The Mitsui move now moves the price up $20.
Black Sea: Just as the Middle East jumped straight to $300/mt FOB without the usual intermediary steps, the Black Sea producers are looking to bypass the $270s and $280s/mt FOB and shoot for $290/mt FOB.
Never mind that nothing has been concluded over $265/mt FOB as last week wound down.
Sources report, however, that $290/mt FOB is probably a reasonable price to ask for in the current market. Buyers and traders say this level should be hit before the month is out. Sources point out that the pricing expectation in the current round of Tampa talks is for a price at $340-$350/mt CFR. Material coming in at that level could have a netback in the upper $280s/mt FOB at least.
Reportedly, Tampa buyers are looking to pick up another cargo or two. That, combined with the jump in the Middle East price, argues for higher prices out of Yuzhnyy.
Supplies in the area remain limited because many producers are still closed. If $290/mt FOB is achieved soon, some plants may begin to consider reopening.
For now, however, the price remains in the upper $260/mt FOB range.
Asia: Demand in East Asia remains strong. Sources say industrial buyers are asking for every ounce of ammonia available.
Mitsui reportedly just bought a cargo from Kaltim at $300/mt FOB, pushing up the Asian price. Sources say a regional buyer, rather than India, will most likely get the tons.
The dramatic purchases by Mitsui last week did not raise as many eyebrows as might otherwise have been expected. Sources say the Japanese house is not planning turnarounds for any of its joint venture ammonia plants in the area, nor is it in dire straits with its contracts.
One source said the company has always had to step into the market on occasion to satisfy its contracts to Asian buyers. This time is no different, other than the dramatic increase in price the purchases caused.
UREA
U.S. Gulf: There was quite a bit of discussion last week in the granular urea market. The buyer camp claimed the spot prompt granular barges traded as low as $258/st. The same number was heard the week before; however, it was forward business. This time sources argued it was prompt to beat the river close. Others were just as adamant that new business as high as $265/st FOB had been done. Others were in between – $260-$262/st FOB.
As of Sept. 24, DH has October paper trades as $255-$260/st FOB, with November-December at $253-$256/st FOB.
Eastern Cornbelt: Granular urea was steady at $315-$325/st FOB in the region.
Western Cornbelt: Sources quoted the granular urea market at $310-$320/st FOB regional terminals to the dealer, with one Iowa source quoting the common dealer price at a nominal $315/st FOB. No new sales were reported to test those numbers.
Southern Plains: Granular urea was reported at $305-$310/st FOB, with the low FOB Inola, Okla. As a result of torrential rains in the Tulsa area early in the week, sources said commercial barges on the Arkansas River were tied off at midweek in Muscogee, Okla., and areas upriver due to high water. Commercial barge traffi c on the Arkansas had just reopened on Sept. 11 following several weeks of maintenance work on two locks.
South Central: Granular urea pricing was down slightly, to $295-$300/st FOB regional terminals to the dealer, with no new sales to test those numbers.
Southeast: Granular urea pricing was down slightly from last report, with sources pegging the dealer market at $300-$310/st FOB port terminals. Some locations were said to be out of product until mid-October.
Heavy rains brought fl ooding to many sections of the region last week. Heaviest hit was Georgia, where parts of the state received more than 20 inches of rain.
India: The industry is gearing up for another tender from a major Indian buyer. Sources say the call will most likely come from STC this time around. The buyer is expected to be looking to buy at least 500,000 mt if the price is in the same range as the recent IPL tender.
Sources say, however, that STC will be looking to shave a few dollars off the $276-$271/mt CFR price IPL paid – much to the chagrin of producers in the Middle East and elsewhere.
Chances are STC will be looking for cargoes to arrive in November. If the buyer will accept late November for delivery, sources say Chinese tons could play a role in the tender.
Middle East: A late deal between PCC/Iran and Swiss Singapore at $255/mt FOB pretty much sealed the top end of the market. The last round of public business in the area was the IPL tender, with prices at $254-$255/mt FOB. Sources say pricing ideas from buyers are lower and from sellers higher.
Producers will have their mettle tested soon, when another Indian buyer, STC, is expected to call a tender.
More material is expected to be available, as Fertil restarts its urea operations next month.
The plant was converted from a prilled plant to one that turns out only granular urea. It was slated to be back on line Sept. 15, but is now delayed until next week.
The facility turned out 600,000 mt/y of prilled urea before the conversion. Once it’s up and running, the plant will produce 850,000 mt of granular urea.
For a number of years the granular output in the area has been increasing to such a degree that the once granular premium has effectively disappeared from the area. Prices offered in the IPL were for granular or prilled urea, at the seller’s option.
Sabic has one shining bit of good news, however. Sources report that Pakistan and Saudi Arabia have concluded a deal that will have Saudi Arabia provide Pakistan with a $20 million soft loan to purchase urea. At current market rates, that means about 80,000 mt will be on the Sabic order book soon.
For now, sources say the market price remains at the levels set by the IPL tender. Many are expecting softer prices once the next sets of tenders come through.
Black Sea: Now that buying for the IPL tender is over, traders and producers are looking to the next Indian tender for some help. Sources say even with a tender from STC looming, prices continue to soften.
When the STC tender comes, it will most likely be for November shipments. That means that Chinese tons could play a role in limiting the price range in the offers.
Sources report that the price is already softening a couple of bucks. Reportedly, offers of $225-$228/mt FOB are being seriously entertained. One source noted that $228/mt FOB was done as part of the IPL tender.
Few traders seem willing to take a long position. Buying material to satisfy immediate needs has become the rule of the day. For producers, there is more uncertainty that tons produced will actually be sold. For traders, that means an aversion to taking any position except prompt deals.
Sources peg the current market at $228-$235/mt FOB.
As of Sept. 24, DH has October paper trades at $233-$237/mt for Yuzhnyy, with the price dropping to $230-$235/mt for November-December.
Pakistan: TCP is getting ready to issue a tender for 300-350,000 mt. The government fi rst allowed private importers to purchase offshore urea, but then rescinded the licenses at the last minute. The national buying arm – TCP – was reportedly getting the paperwork together late last week to call the tender.
A government report from a committee headed by the agriculture minister said the country would need to import an additional 400,000 mt of urea to ensure a successful Rabi season this year.
The difference between the 400,000 mt called for by the panel and the amount expected in the tender will most likely be covered by a US$20 million soft loan from Saudi Arabia.
Sources report the two governments fi nally reached an accord on the loan, which originally was US$100 million. The new amount could cover about 80,000 mt of Sabic urea at current market prices.
Vietnam: In confl icting press reports, Vietnam is either going to export a record number of tons of urea, or it will not export any urea.
Sources say the bottom line is that the central government is concerned that tons produced in the country are being mixed with tons from China that end up being re-exported.
Concern remains that farmers have enough urea for each application season. New regulations to cover imports and re-exports are coming online soon.
NITROGEN SOLUTIONS
U.S. Gulf: While some players last week were calling the market in the $122-$125/st FOB range, others were doubtful, saying the lowest they could fi nd was $130-$131/st FOB. However, still others said $125/st was done for prompt.
CF/Keytrade were reportedly exporting a vessel to Argentina with a netback to NOLA in the $130s/st FOB. Also, Gavilon was reported to be sending a cargo to France. Sources noted that CF’s price list now quotes prices for domestic sales and says to call if you want the export price. Sources said CF is not likely to be too excited about exporting via anyone other than its export partner, Keytrade.
As of Sept. 24, DH reported October paper trades at $135-$140/st, with much higher numbers reported for November-December at $140-$145/st FOB. First half 2010 numbers were higher still, at $147-$152/st FOB.
Eastern Cornbelt: UAN was tagged at $5.47-$5.94/unit FOB regional terminals, with the low out of spot river locations. One source pegged the Cincinnati market last week at $5.62/unit FOB to the dealer. Forward contract UAN-32 for October through December ranged from $184-$195.20/st ($5.75-$6.10/unit) FOB in the region.
Western Cornbelt: The UAN-32 market remained at $165-$185/st ($5.16-$5.78/unit) FOB regional terminals to the dealer, depending on location.
Southern Plains: UAN-32 remained at $155-$160/st ($4.84-$5.00/unit) FOB most regional production points last week.
South Central: UAN-32 was quoted at $161.60-$178/st ($5.05-$5.56/unit) FOB regional terminals to the dealer, depending on location, with no activity to test that market. The Memphis, Tenn., market was pegged at the $165/st ($5.16/unit) FOB level last week.
Southeast: Sources reported very little fertilizer movement, and described the markets as very quiet. UAN was quoted at $5.00-$5.33/unit FOB regional terminals. One source put the common UAN-30 market to the dealer at $155-$160/st ($5.17-$5.33/unit) FOB last week.
AMMONIUM NITRATE
U.S. Gulf: Price ideas continued to be called $200-$210/st FOB.
Western Cornbelt: Ammonium nitrate was steady at $255-$265/st FOB in the region, with some suppliers referencing a $275/st FOB price to the dealer.
Southern Plains: Ammonium nitrate pricing remained at $255/st FOB Catoosa, Okla.
South Central: Ammonium nitrate remained at $260/st FOB regional terminals to the dealer.
Southeast: Ammonium nitrate remained at $280-$290/st FOB Tampa, Fla.
AMMONIUM SULFATE
Eastern Cornbelt: Granular ammonium sulfate was pegged at $160-$180/st FOB in the region.
Western Cornbelt: Granular ammonium sulfate was quoted at $160-$180/st FOB or rail-DEL in the region. There were rumors that reference levels were about to fi rm to the upper end of that range in the Midwest, but that pricing adjustment was not confi rmed.
Southern Plains: Granular ammonium sulfate was steady at $175-$215/st FOB Texas shipping points, with the low FOB Freeport. American Plant Food Corp. reported that it recently invested in 200 new rail cars. In a notice to customers, APF said it will offer fi ve free days of unloading, excluding holidays and weekends, effective Oct. 1; any private cars kept longer than that will be charged demurrage of $50 per day per car.
South Central: The granular ammonium sulfate range had narrowed considerably from last report, with sources quoting the dealer market at $175-$195/st FOB in the region, depending on location.
Southeast: Granular ammonium sulfate was pegged at $150-$165/st FOB, with the low FOB Hopewell, Va., and the upper level refl ecting the reference price FOB Augusta, Ga. Rail-delivered postings into Florida from DSM Chemicals included granular sulfate at $205/st and standard at $168/st.
PHOSPHATES
Central Florida: In sports, when the hometown team fails to make the playoffs, its fans say, “Wait until next season.” Phosphate sales people have been saying the same thing this fall – “Wait until the spring season.”
On the calendar, fall started last week. There was no big rush on dealers by farmers, and not much from dealers to traders and producers. Last week the best scenario people were hoping for was a spurt of activity by mid-October, after corn and soybeans are harvested.
Central Florida DAP sales for domestic consumption were barely even sluggish last week – a few truckloads here and there, but new prompt sales of railcars were only a glimmer in the eye for some distant point.
The Central Florida DAP price range last week continued to be fl at at $275/st FOB, based on the most recent sales. Small buyers can expect to pay a little more once traders unload what they have on hand. Both Mosaic and PCS Sales had a $10/st FOB additional charge for MAP. Agrifos had no posted railcar price, but its price for truckloads was $300/st FOB for DAP and $305/st FOB for MAP.
U.S. Gulf: Warehouse prices for DAP and MAP were generally too low to support current NOLA barge prices. However, most terminal operators were either holding off on increases or doing the opposite, lowering their prices just to get the business. Over the long term, that situation is not sustainable. Either the cost of barges will have to go down, or warehouse prices will have to go up.
The problem continued to be a lack of demand. The corn and soybean crops were late going in the ground, and the harvest will be late coming out. Most were hoping what was left of the fall season would begin by the middle of October, but that may not happen. If farmers decide to wait until the spring to fertilize, the question will remain – how much will they use?
Last week, sellers were saying about the only thing they could move was a truckload here and there. The price of NOLA DAP barges has been essentially stagnant, and buyers believe there was as good a chance of it going down as going up. Regardless of the direction, it won’t be much, so why buy now? “That’s hard to argue with,” said one trader. The only reason a farmer might buy fertilizer at this time would be to take a write-off on taxes – otherwise, it would make little sense.
While most crops were still not ready for harvest, the wheat crop in areas like Oklahoma was cooperating, and warehouse sales of phosphates had increased. The only prompt DAP barge sales found last week were in that area.
Meanwhile, corn prices were around the same as a week earlier. Late the previous week the price went down, but rebounded to its previous level in the middle of last week.
The NOLA DAP barge price range drifted south last week from $280-$283/st FOB the previous week to $276-$280/st FOB. Asking prices late last week were as high as $285/st FOB, but no deals were done at that level. Mosaic was seeking $295/st FOB. Both Mosaic and CF were charging a $10/st FOB premium for MAP.
As of Sept. 24, DH paper trades were reported at $270-$280/st FOB for October-December.
Eastern Cornbelt: DAP remained at $310-$320/st FOB regional warehouses to the dealer, with MAP $10/st higher. Forward contract DAP for October was posted at $315/st FOB Peoria, Ill., and $320/st FOB Cincinnati, with a $5/st increase slated for November through December.
10-34-0 was unchanged at $315-$320/st FOB in the region.
Western Cornbelt: DAP was quoted at $310-$320/st FOB warehouses to the dealer, with MAP $10/st higher. The upper end of those ranges was reported in Missouri on a spot basis. One Nebraska source pegged delivered DAP at the $318/st level in his trade area last week. He added that he still expects brisk fall demand for phosphates as long as weather conditions are favorable and the harvest progresses steadily.
One regional supplier was referencing forward contract DAP at $315/st FOB St. Louis, Mo., for October, moving to $320/st FOB for November and December shipments.
10-34-0 was steady at $310-$320/st FOB in the region.
Southern Plains: DAP remained at $305-$310/st FOB Catoosa and Inola, with MAP $10/st higher. The 10-34-0 market was pegged at $310-$315/st FOB in the region. “There are no supply issues because there are demand issues,” said one fertilizer source. Added another, in reference to phosphate movement, “That market is ready to move, but conditions just have to get right.”
South Central: Sources continued to report no movement on phosphates. DAP to the dealer remained at $300-$310/st FOB regional warehouses, with MAP $10/st higher. TSP was pegged at $285-$290/st FOB to the dealer.
U.S. Export: No new export deals from North America were found last week, but India did issue an offer to buy 200,000 mt. However, India wanted it delivered quickly, so it would most likely be fi lled from existing supplies within the country. PhosChem was not able to respond.
It appeared Brazil and Argentina will not make much in the way of new buys for a while. Buyers in both countries made signifi cant acquisitions earlier this year and will work through those supplies before returning to the market.
With no new transactions, the export DAP price range last week was unchanged at $310-$312/mt FOB.
As of Sept. 24, DH Tampa paper trades were $300-$310/mt for October and $290-$300/mt for November-December.
Pakistan: According to a report from the National Fertilizer Development Centre (NFDC), the opening inventory of DAP for Rabi 2009-10 (Oct.-March) would be around 212,000 mt. Domestic production is estimated at 300,000 mt. An import of 450,000 mt of DAP is needed to meet demand.
POTASH
Eastern Cornbelt: Spot quotes for wholesale potash remained in the $475-$510/st FOB range in the region, with the low for Russian tons and the upper end from Canadian producers.
Western Cornbelt: The regional potash market remained at $475-$510/st FOB, with the low for Russian product and the upper end from Canadian producers. Several sources pegged the common warehouse price last week in the $490-$500/st FOB range for red granular potash.
Southern Plains: Sources put the potash market at $490- $500/st FOB regional warehouses, depending on grade and supplier. Postings FOB Carlsbad, N.M., included standard 60 percent at $477/st, granular 60 percent at $482/st, standard 62 percent at $493/st, fi ne standard 62 percent at $496/st, and granular 62 percent at $498/st FOB.
New potash sales were hard to come by. “No one cares,” said one source. Added another, “There are two reasons people will buy – if it’s a good value, and if they need it. Right now no one is sure it’s a good buy, and nobody really needs it.”
South Central: Sources reported no potash sales taking place, and some feared that potash cutbacks this fall will also affect phosphate usage. “When will we see the potash number get right?” asked one source. “I don’t know why these guys are being so obstinate. Without that happening, the farmer is not likely to apply DAP with potash.”
Potash out of regional terminals was pegged in the $475-$490/st FOB range last week, with the lower numbers for Russian tons. One source placed potash barge values in the $430-$440/st range FOB the Gulf, again for Russian product. Others continued to call that market $445-$450/st FOB.
Southeast: Delivered potash was tagged in the $510-$530/st range in the region, depending on grade and supplier, with the low reported for truck-DEL tons from river locations and the upper end refl ecting rail-DEL levels.
SULFUR
Tampa: Negotiations for fourth quarter sulfur prices had not begun late last week, and the new period begins this week. Nobody was in a big hurry to get the job done.
Oil companies were said to be relatively satisfi ed just to get rid of their inventories. Phosphate producers had little motivation, because they have been paying very little for the raw material.
Domestic phosphate sales have been sluggish to say the very least, and that has not led to any major increases in production. However, refi neries continued to operate well below normal levels, and the use of more sweet crude oil has resulted in reduced sulfur production.
What may come out of price talks could be a more stable pricing formula, but what shape that would take was unclear. Price increases, if any, will most likely be limited.