AMMONIA
U.S. Gulf/Tampa: So far there is no word on new business for Tampa for December. November stands at $355/mt DEL, with the last done NOLA barge at $275/st FOB.
As of Nov. 19, Direct Hedge (DH) had the December Tampa market at $340-$350/mt DEL, January at $335-$345/mt DEL, and February-March at $330-$340/mt DEL.
>According to the U.S. Department of Commerce (DOC), U.S. September ammonia imports were up 2 percent, to 673,413 st from the year-ago 658,955 st. However, July-September imports are still off 15 percent at 1.7 million st, down from the year-ago 2.04 million st.
Eastern Cornbelt: The harvest pace and wet field conditions continued to slow fall fertilizer applications in much of the region. One source said heavy rains in Illinois last week will most likely shut down any fall ammonia business in those areas. Another speculated that only 35-40 percent of the normal ammonia volumes will be applied this fall, pushing a heavy portion of the nitrogen business to next spring.
Spot ammonia pricing was generally reported in the $350-$370/st range FOB regional terminals. There were reports of excess fall prepay tons being bartered in the Illinois market for as low as $335-$345/st FOB, but other sources downplayed those rumors. Spring prepay ammonia was quoted in the $420-$430/st FOB range.
Western Cornbelt: In areas where weather and field conditions allowed it, sources reported steady movement of ammonia, phosphates, and potash last week. One Missouri source said his location would have seen a heavy application schedule at mid-month if the rainfall hadn’t stalled activity.
While fall ammonia movement was at least underway in the region, sources were mixed on what kind of volumes they’d see. One said he expects a normal fall run if the weather cooperates. Another, however, said less than 20 percent of the fall volumes had been applied to date, and growers are on borrowed time at this late date.
The spot market for anhydrous ammonia remained at $330-$350/st FOB in the region, with spring prepay reportedly being offered in the $415-$425/st FOB range.
Northern Plains: Sources reported some ammonia movement to the field last week, but fall applications were taking a backseat to the harvest schedule. North Dakota sources continued to quote delivered ammonia at the $375/st mark for cash market tons, with limited spring prepay offers reported at the $450/st DEL level. Spot pricing out of regional terminals was pegged in the $350-$360/st FOB range.
Great Lakes: Sources pegged the spot ammonia market at $360-$375/st FOB terminals, with spring prepay quoted by Wisconsin dealers in the $420-$425/st FOB range. One Michigan source quoted the Courtright, Ontario, ammonia market at the $365/st FOB mark to the dealer for cash tons.
Middle East: Sabic has been hustling around making sure all its contracts are covered. Last week the Saudi company reportedly bought two cargoes totaling 22,000 mt from Fertil. The company is finding it difficult to meet its commitments because SAFCO II and III remain down. Sources say the two facilities may be up by this week.
First, the company had problems when SAFCO IV was down. Just as that facility came online, the two other plants shut down.
Sources report Sabic has been tap dancing for several weeks with swaps and outright purchases to ensure it fills all contracts. One trader joked that Sabic was following the U.S. model by overextending itself on credit.
Buyers had originally hoped that once SAFCO IV came back online the tight Middle East market might ease up a bit. Unfortunately, said one Asian trader, anything produced by SAFCO IV had to go toward paying back all the tons that were swapped out in the past. With units II and III down, sources say SABIC may end up further in debt to other producers.
Besides the sale to Sabic, Fertil also sold 23,000 to Mitsubishi for an Asian buyer.
Mitsui and Mitsubishi have been competing with each other to snag whatever extra tons might come from any Middle East supplier. Both companies service buyers in India and Asia – the two hottest markets in the industry.
Asian production is going full blast – and yet, it is not enough to satisfy demand. This leaves only the Middle East as an acceptable place to get the tons necessary to keep buyers happy.
A tender from FACT/India closes Nov. 24. Offers are to be valid until Nov. 30. Middle East observers say the producers will probably be very aggressive in their pricing ideas.
Until the results come in, the market price in the area remains in the low $300s/mt FOB.
Black Sea: Russia and Ukraine appear to be heading for a major confrontation on natural gas prices and supplies again. Gazprom has already warned the Ukrainians to pay their gas bills on time and not to fiddle with the gas passing through its pipelines to Europe.
Last year a dispute over prices and allegations the Ukrainians were siphoning off Russian gas destined for Western Europe led to a Russian mid-winter embargo of natural gas shipments to the west.
Few in the industry expect to see a similar battle arise this year. Higher gas prices and traditional winter heating demands for natural gas, however, are expected to limit the amount of gas available for ammonia production.
One Asian source said he does not expect to see Yuzhnyy as a major player until after the spring thaw.
Prices remain hovering at just $300/mt FOB, a level too low for many plants to operate.
As of Nov. 19, DH had the paper market at $290-$300/mt for December and $280-$280/mt FOB January-March.
India: FACT closes a tender Nov. 24 for two cargoes of 75,000 mt each. Delivery is set for December 18-26 and December 30 – January 1, 2010.
The tender will be the first bit of public spot business in a while. Sources say it could set the tone for contract sales for the first quarter. Industry watchers expect to see higher prices. The usual winners in these tenders are Middle East producers. In the past, some have been in desperate straits with an over abundance of material and have cratered the market to ensure an award. Sources say this is not the situation now – material from the Middle East is tight. Producers and traders are engaging in swap deals on a regular basis to make sure all contracts are honored.
UREA
U.S. Gulf: Granular prices continued to work their way up last week. Sources said they started off as low as $273-$276/st FOB early in the week and were a firm $280/st FOB by week’s end for prompt, with quotes now at $285/st FOB for the next round of business.
Sources said there are more buyers than sellers in the market, and that a late harvest and low inland inventories are starting to take their toll on prices. Add to that the reality that imports are off, though one source said it is only November, that imports could catch up by spring. Regardless, sources say when you add that corn prices and acreage expectations are up and the fall season is expected to be light, there should be a big spring season for nitrogen. Sources say all these factors boost the prospects for both urea and UAN, and should serve to keep them firm in the near term.
As of Nov. 19, DH had the December granular urea paper market at $280-$285/st FOB, January-March at $288-$295/st FOB, and April-June at $275-$285/st FOB.
U.S. September urea imports were off 12 percent, to 459,671 st from the year-ago 521,251 st. However, July September imports were off 31 percent, to 912,246 st from 1.32 million st.
Eastern Cornbelt: Granular urea pricing in the region was firming on the back of stronger barge prices at the Gulf. The dealer market had reportedly firmed to $310-$320/st FOB in the region, with some talking of a move to $330/st FOB out of locations in the near term
Western Cornbelt: Granular urea was pegged at $310-$320/st FOB, reflecting a $10-$15/st increase from the previous week.
Northern Plains: The granular urea market had reportedly firmed to $325-$335/st FOB in the region, with the low in Minneapolis and the upper end out of North Dakota terminals. Delivered urea was quoted at the $340/st level in North Dakota. Agrium’s granular urea postings firmed on Nov. 9 to $340/st FOB North Dakota terminals at Alton, Carrington, Colfax, Scranton, and Grand Forks, and $345/st rail-DEL in Minnesota and the Dakotas. Those numbers reflected a $20/st increase from the company’s Oct. 29 postings.
Great Lakes: The low end of the granular urea market was reported at the $310/st FOB mark in southern Wisconsin. Out of Michigan terminals, the dealer market had reportedly firmed to the $350/st FOB level from some suppliers, with the most recent business confirmed at $335/st FOB. List prices included $343/st FOB Saginaw, Mich. Agrium’s granular urea postings firmed on Nov. 9 to $345/st rail-DEL in Wisconsin, up $20/st from the company’s Oct. 29 list price.
Northeast: The granular urea market remained at $305-$315/st FOB in the region.
India: The eyes of the industry remain firmly planted on Indian buyer MMTC. Sources say the company is getting ready to call a tender. One source noted that the call might come as early as this week.
A growing number of sources say the tender will be called just before the IFA Asia regional meeting in Malaysia Dec. 8. The tender will close just a couple of days after the gathering. “That will give people plenty to talk about,” said one Asian trader.
Additional scenarios include calling the tender just after the IFA meeting so the Indian buyers could use the sessions in Malaysia to test the temperature of the market.
Others say calling the tender before November ends could lead to a closing date just as the IFA participants arrive at the resort city of Kota Kinabalu. The buyer could then engage in post-tender negotiations at the conference.
Whenever MMTC does call a tender, sources say all the talk of the tender is already moving up price expectations in Yuzhnyy, China, and the Middle East. Sources speculate that logistics and a rising market could eliminate Yuzhnyy from consideration, leaving the tender to be a December battle between the Chinese and Arab Gulf producers.
Middle East: Producers continue to claim they are tight, with no tons to spare. One trader pointed out, however, that when word came that a cargo of PIC urea destined for South Africa was hijacked by Somali pirates, Sabic was able to step in quickly and cover the deal.
Sources say complaints of a tight Middle East market are justified. Just not as much as the producers say.
Observers say a Qafco plant is just coming back online after being down for a while.
A Fertil plant is now said to be down for an unexpected maintenance check. Sabic II and III are also down, but should be back up this week.
A Qafco facility just came back online. It is expected to be at full capacity by the end of the month.
Overall, sources say the prices remain in the upper $260s/mt FOB to low $270s/mt FOB. The most commonly quoted range for prilled and granular urea is $268-$275/mt FOB.
No one is really sure where a firm price sits. The material that is moving out are tons purchased either under long-term contracts, and therefore on a formula basis, or from a tender award from Pakistan or India.
In either situation, the price is based on events long past.
One source said the upcoming Indian tender could be a battle between Chinese and Middle East producers. If that is true, said one producer, MMTC should expect to see higher prices in the tender.
Black Sea: The big question industry watchers have relates to the stockpiles in the area.
Sources report the current shipments are all based on awarded business from Pakistan and some trailing deals from older Indian tenders. No new major buyers are stepping up to pick up the slack once those deals end.
Industry watchers say the current pricing level of $240-$245/mt FOB, combined with rising shipping rates, could make Black Sea tons uncompetitive in the upcoming Indian tender. At the same time, they say, demand from Latin America does not appear to be coming in as strongly as expected.
The combination of weaker Western Hemisphere demand and the possibility of being iced out of December-January Indian business could lead to order books with a lot of blank spaces.
Producers have tried to argue that their production will be down during the winter months as natural gas is diverted to home heating. While this has traditionally been a strong argument, Asian sources say what is lacking is a firm understanding of how many unsold tons are still sitting in the Yuzhnyy warehouses looking for a home.
In the past, sales and prices have been sufficient to provide a workable balance of supply and demand. This time, with higher input prices and fluctuating transportation costs, industry watchers are unsure where supplies currently stand in the area.
As of Nov. 19, DH had the Yuzhnyy December paper market at $242-$247/mt FOB, January at $250-$255/mt FOB, and February-March at $252-$257/mt FOB.
China: Producers keep quoting higher and higher prices in anticipation of an Indian tender. Sources say prills have stabilized in the $270/mt FOB area, while granular remains about $5/mt more.
Reportedly, some producers in the north have been having a hard time getting their material to the ports. Record snowfalls are affecting rail and road transportation. The delays are not yet causing any major backups in ship loadings, but some in the industry say unless the land logistics are corrected quickly, some vessels may have to wait at anchor while the tons trickle into the bonded warehouses.
Domestic demand is reportedly down. Anticipation of the Indian tender seems to be the driving force on prices right now.
Indonesia: Sources are torn about what is going to happen with Pusri. The conventional wisdom from a couple of weeks ago was that Pusri would call a tender by the end of the month.
The company still has permission to export about 70,000 mt more of urea by the end of the first quarter 2010.
With the international price on the rise, one source is now saying Pusri will most likely hold off until January to call its tender. By that time, Indonesian urea will not have to compete with Chinese material. And, he says, with prices heading up, the producer figures it can get a better price for its product early next year.
The downside to any Pusri tender involves the limits on loading. The pier for the plant is on a river that limits purchases to 5,000 mt lots. From there, the material can economically go to Malaysia, the Philippines, Vietnam, and, at the outer edges, Thailand and Taiwan.
Agricultural and industrial buyers in any of those countries would be willing to take the tons, and even to pay a small premium.
The last tender settled at $277.50/mt FOB. Traders in the area say the price jump of almost $10/mt from the previous tender was uncalled for, but they all went along with the pricing hysteria just in case the price keeps going up.
Pakistan: Now that Pakistan and Saudi Arabia have signed an assistance package that includes US$100 million for urea purchases, sources say Pakistan is done buying material.
Observers add that by the second half of next year Pakistan may actually join the ranks of urea exporters.
The most recent round of buying brought in 600,000 mt. Combined with the 305-370,000 mt expected from the Saudi-Pakistan aid package and domestic production, the county will have enough buffer stock to carry farmers through the next application season without fear of shortages.
As the year progresses new production will also kick in, so that by the third quarter, sources say Pakistan will be urea self-sufficient. By the fourth quarter, the country may begin offering tons for export.
NITROGEN SOLUTIONS
U.S. Gulf: Prompt tons were reported to have moved last week within the $163-$168/st FOB ($5.09-$5.25/unit) range. While there were several reports of product in the $170s/st FOB, some said those were forward trades into the first quarter. Others, however, argued that there is very little prompt material available, and that anyone looking for it now is going to have to start paying in the $170s/st FOB.
As with urea, sources cited wet weather and the late harvest in the Cornbelt as curtailing ammonia use and driving up possible demand for UAN come spring. Inland inventories, as with other products, are low. And imports are significantly behind year-ago levels. U.S. September UAN imports were off 49 percent, to 85,698 st from the year-ago 168,110 st. July-September imports were off 56 percent, to 237,559 st from 542,166 st.
Another source lamented the market loss of the 200,000 st plus of UAN exports that were shipped out of the Gulf this past summer.
As of Nov. 19, DH had the December paper market at $165-$175/st FOB and January-March at $187-$190/st FOB. April-June was $185-$195/st FOB.
Eastern Cornbelt: Sources quoted the UAN market in a broad range at $5.89-$6.41/unit FOB last week, with the low end out of spot river terminals. One source said that low number would likely firm to $6.07-$6.25/unit FOB in the near term. Reference levels for UAN-28 out of some Ohio shipping points were reported as high as $185/st ($6.61/unit) FOB last week. Spring prepay UAN was reported in the $6.56-$6.88/unit FOB range in the region.
Western Cornbelt: Sources quoted the UAN-32 market at $185-$210/st ($5.78-$6.56/unit) FOB regional terminals for prompt tons. One Iowa source put the common dealer price at the $6.30/unit FOB level at mid-month.
Northern Plains: UAN pricing continued to firm. Sources quoted the dealer market at $6.25-$6.50/unit FOB regional terminals, with delivered UAN-28 pegged at $185/st ($6.61/unit) in North Dakota.
Great Lakes: UAN was up from last report, with prices covering a broad range in the region. Wisconsin sources tagged the prompt UAN-32 market at the $205/st ($6.41/unit) FOB level, with spring prepay offers reported in the $210-$220/st ($6.56-$6.88/unit) range. In Michigan, UAN-28 was pegged at $185-$190/st ($6.61-$6.79/unit) FOB to the dealer, with some suppliers referenced as high as $195-$205/st ($6.96-$7.32/unit) FOB for new spot market tons. The dealer market for UAN-32 FOB Courtright was quoted at the $208/st ($6.50/unit) level last week.
Northeast: The UAN market continued to strengthen. Sources pegged the Baltimore UAN-30 price range at $169-$180/st ($5.63-$6.00/unit) FOB, with the market likely to firm to the higher end of the range fueled by replacement vessel values in the $185-$190/mt CFR range for UAN-32. Spring prepay UAN-30 was reportedly being offered in the mid-$180s/st FOB Baltimore for product paid for by mid-December and shipped through next June. Out of terminals in upstate New York, sources quoted the UAN-32 dealer price at $208/st ($6.50/unit) FOB for spot tons, and likely to firm again in the very near term.
AMMONIUM NITRATE
U.S. Gulf: Players continue to call barges $200-$205/st FOB, though others are citing higher prices on the paper markets. DH has paper at $200-$215/st FOB for December-February.
U.S. September AN imports were off 56 percent, to 31,325 st from the year-ago 71,640 st. July-September imports are off 42 percent, to 93,132 st from 160,078 st.
Western Cornbelt: Ammonium nitrate was steady at $255-$260/st FOB in the region.
AMMONIUM SULFATE
Eastern Cornbelt: Granular ammonium sulfate was unchanged at $170-$180/st FOB in the region.
Western Cornbelt: Granular ammonium sulfate remained at $170-$180/st FOB or rail-DEL.
Northern Plains: Granular ammonium sulfate remained
at $180/st FOB, with delivered product at $180-$195/st in
the region, depending on location and supplier.
Great Lakes: Granular ammonium sulfate was pegged at $175-$180/st FOB or rail-DEL in the region for Honeywell product. One Michigan supplier was referenced at the $215/st FOB mark to the dealer for granular ammonium sulfate from another producer.
Northeast: Granular ammonium sulfate had reportedly firmed from $163/st to $175/st FOB Hopewell, Va. One source quoted barge-delivered tons to his location at the $186/st level.
PHOSPHATES
Central Florida: As crops come out of the fields, dealers have been making significantly more inquiries about phosphate than they have during the past several months. That was expected to result in a boost in rail sales out of Central Florida, but has not yet begun on a major scale.
Mostly as a result of increased export sales, CF has notified its customers that it will not have DAP available for spot sales until January. CF has not curtailed production and it appeared Mosaic was unlikely to do so, because of higher than normal activity in both the domestic and export markets.
PotashCorp planned a two-week turnaround at its Aurora plant in North Carolina, which will cut its current rate of production by about half during the first two weeks of December. The company’s Florida facility at White Springs will continue operating to meet market demand.
Phosphate inventories remained about the same in October, according to TFI’s recently released report for that month. Most of the disappearance in October was due to export business, while the domestic market was quiet.
With no new prompt DAP or MAP sales by rail found in Central Florida last week, the Central Florida DAP price range was unchanged at $270-$275/st FOB. Both Mosaic and PCS Sales were charging a $10/st FOB premium for MAP. Agrifos dropped its prices from $300/st FOB for DAP and $305/st FOB for MAP by $10-$15/st FOB for trucks and $5/lt less than trucks for rail shipments.
U.S. Gulf: Better late than wait-until-next-year. After a long, long delay in getting the fall season underway, business kicked into high gear on the river system last week as sales jumped and prices followed.
Meanwhile, farmers were well on their way to bringing in their crops by late last week and most will be done this week, weather permitting. In Oklahoma, harvesting was essentially done, while in the Cornbelt, completion of harvesting was running as high as 85 percent in the east, 75 percent in the west, and somewhere between 55 and 60 percent in the central areas.
Yields were said to be very good in most regions – and even better, prices were relatively high. Late last week, corn for December was running $3.93/bushel, while December 2010 was at $4.34/bushel. Soybeans were fetching $10.27/bushel for January.
Farmers who held back on fertilizer applications during the past couple of years were hitting warehouses with large orders, and dealers were making calls to traders and producers for re-supply. Inventories were low due to earlier curtailments and export sales, however, and some bins will go empty for the balance of this season. In addition, the up-river areas will have to rely on a combination of barge and rail to refill, because the upper river closed last month.
Warehouse prices were also moving upward last week, as terminals struggled to meet the higher DAP barge prices. The lowest prices were on the Arkansas River, which were at $305/st FOB and attempting to move to $310/st FOB. Prices in other river-served areas were between $310/st FOB and $315/st FOB. Expect to see higher prices this week, as barge prices continue to escalate with increased demand.
Early last week, NOLA DAP barge sales were completed for as low as $275/st FOB, but increased by late in the week to as high as $290/st FOB. Transammonia made the decision to commit its allotment from Miss Phos to its own terminal operations and export contracts, and CF informed its customers that it will have no phosphate available for prompt sales until January. At the same time, few floating barges were for sale, and Mosaic had only a limited number.
The NOLA DAP barge price range last week was $275-$290/st FOB, which was up from the previous week’s range of $262-$275/st FOB. Sources expect DAP and MAP prices to continue to rise this week.
As of Nov. 19, DH had the December paper market at $280-$285/st FOB and January-March at $285-$290/st FOB.
Eastern Cornbelt: DAP pricing had reportedly firmed to $315-$325/st FOB regional warehouses, up some $10/st from last report, with the low reported in Illinois and the upper end in the Ohio market. There were also reports of direct-transferred tons moving out of some Mississippi River locations in Illinois at sub-$300/st levels to the dealer.
MAP was $10/st higher than DAP. The 10-34-0 market was pegged at $315-$330/st FOB in the region, with the upper end of that range also quoted for spring prepay tons.
Western Cornbelt: The DAP market was pegged at $310-$320/st FOB regional warehouses, up $10-$15/st from last report. MAP was $10/st higher than DAP. The 10-34-0 market was quoted at $305-$345/st FOB in the region, with the low in Iowa and the upper end reported in Missouri on a spot basis.
Northern Plains: DAP was pegged at $315-$320/st FOB the Twin Cities, with MAP $10/st higher. Delivered MAP in North Dakota was reported in the $330-$340/st range.
The regional 10-34-0 market was tagged at $310-$320/st FOB. Delivered 10-34-0 in North Dakota was quoted as low as $305/st last week, with the upper end of the delivered range at $320/st in the region.
Great Lakes: Some dealers reported a little dry movement at mid-month in the region, and there was also some interest from growers in spring tons. “Nobody’s filling the barn, but farmers are buying some anyway,” said one source.
DAP was quoted at $315-$335/st FOB regional warehouses, with the low in Wisconsin and the upper end in Michigan. Another Wisconsin source said the market was firming to the $325-$330/st FOB level in his trade area as well. MAP was $10/st higher than DAP.
The 10-34-0 market was quoted at $315-$330/st FOB for the prompt market, with the low again in Wisconsin and the upper end in Michigan to the dealer. Wisconsin sources also quoted spring prepay 10-34-0 at the $330/st FOB level.
Northeast: MAP was quoted at $325-$345/st FOB in the region, with the low in western Pennsylvania and the upper end quoted out of the Philadelphia market. DAP was $10/st less than MAP, with the E. Liverpool, Ohio, dealer market pegged at the $330/st FOB level.
10-34-0 was reported in a broad range at $325-$350/st FOB in the region, with the low end out of tanks in upstate New York.
U.S. Export: Export business continued to be strong last week, as PhosChem made sales to Africa, Brazil, and Central America totaling 47,000 mt at prices between $293/mt FOB and $295/mt FOB. Africa accounted for 25,000 mt at $295/st FOB, while sales of DAP and MAP to Brazil and DAP to Central America both totaled 11,000 mt.
China has been the primary player and market driver during the past month, and has purchased somewhere between 700,000 and 800,000 mt from around the globe. The major beneficiaries included PhosChem, Gavilon, and Transammonia. Much of that business will be reflected in reports from The Fertilizer Institute (TFI) in November and December.
India was said to have only about 150,000 mt of inventory, and will have to hit the market next year for another 6 million mt or so.
October was a bumper month for the U.S. phosphate industry and sales were up 69.5 percent from a year earlier to 684,897 mt, according to TFI. Naturally, India led the way in October with deliveries of 553,657 mt. Neighboring Pakistan purchased 43,682 mt, while Japan was the third biggest customer at 23,362 mt. For the calendar-year-to-date, India led the way with 3,398,283 mt, followed by Pakistan at 157,185 mt and Vietnam at 154,246 mt. Total deliveries thus far this year amounted to 5,014,976 mt, an increase of 17.5 percent over the same time period in 2008.
TFI said MAP sales also took a huge jump in October, with deliveries up 190 percent over the same month the previous year, to 119,738 mt. Argentina led the way with 53,059 mt, followed by Brazil at 28,355 mt and Japan at 15,000 mt. For the calendar-year-to-date, Brazil was tops with 457,555 mt, with Canada next at 318,834 mt, and Australia at 189,697 mt. For the calendar-year-to-date, MAP sales were down 3 percent to 1,352,152 mt.
The export DAP price range last week rose to $293-$295/mt FOB from $282-$293/mt FOB the previous week. PhosChem was seeking an increased price for its next sale at $305/mt FOB Tampa.
As of Nov. 19, DH had the December paper market at $290-$295/mt FOB and January-March at $285-$300/mt FOB.
India: Under an RCF tender for two lots of 18-20,000 mt rock phosphate (min. 29 percent P2O5) for shipment November-January, the following bids were received: 1) JPMC 2 x 18-20,000 mt ex Jordan (35.70 – 36.61 percent P2O5); 2) Geetax 2 x 40,000 mt ex Togo (25.25 – 26.16 percent P2O5); 3) CIFC 2 x 18-20,000 mt ex Egypt (29.75 percent P2O5); 4) Agora 2 x 18-20,000 mt ex Egypt (30 percent P2O5); 5) Procadence Impex 2 x 18-20,000 mt ex Egypt (29 percent P2O5); 6) Sun Intl 2 x 18-20,000 mt ex Egypt (30 percent P2O5); 7) Tradeline 2 x 18-20,000 mt ex Iran or Syria (29 percent P2O5; and 8) Swiss Singapore 2 x 18-20,000 mt ex Egypt (29 percent P2O5).
Price offers of those found technically qualified will be opened at a later date.
POTASH
Eastern Cornbelt: Potash continued to be quoted at $450-$460/st FOB regional warehouses, with discounts reportedly bringing the low end of the range to the $445/st level on a spot basis.
Western Cornbelt: The dealer market for potash was quoted at $445-$457/st FOB in the region, with the low for discounted red granular tons and the upper end reported in Missouri for white granular potash. One source said he’d be making sales at those numbers – “one load at a time” – if field conditions were suitable for application in his territory.
There were also reports of Russian potash being offered in the St. Louis area as low as $430/st FOB, but sales at those levels were not confirmed.
Northern Plains: The potash market had reportedly slipped to $440-$450/st DEL in the region. The only available pricing quotes out of Saskatchewan reflected the most recent posted levels, which ranged from $467-$480/st FOB, depending on grade.
Great Lakes: Potash prices continued to fall. Sources pegged the warehouse market at $450-$460/st FOB, with some claiming discounts could be had. A Michigan contact pegged the market at $450/st FOB for red granular and $457/st FOB for white in his trade area, and said he was seeing buyer interest at those levels.
Northeast: Potash pricing continued to slide in the region. The market was pegged at $450-$460/st FOB regional warehouses, with the E. Liverpool market quoted at the $455/st FOB level. One source also confirmed that rail-delivered potash to his location had dropped to $460/st at mid-month from the previous $485/st level, while another source talked of a truck-delivered price to his location of $468-$470/st. There was also discussion of price protection terms being offered from some potash suppliers.
U.S.Imports: Potassium muriate imports were off 58 percent in September, to 386,531 st from the year-ago 917,907 st. July-September imports were off 55 percent, to 1.09 million st from 2.44 million st.
SULFUR
Tampa: As sulfur supplies continued to diminish last week, demand was still strong and will probably increase during the next several months. The phosphate industry finally found its feet in the domestic market last week and was off and running. Coupled with high export demand, the threat of additional curtailments eased.
Refineries were moving away from producing gasoline for the lackluster summer driving season and toward making fuel oil for winter heating, which contains a higher sulfur level. At the same time, sweet crude was dominating the inflow, as oil producers were supplying a larger percentage due to the advantage of prices for sweet crude over sour.
Some were predicting that prill sulfur would need to be imported and re-melted in order to meet demand early next year. However, it was more likely Canada will increase its shipments south into the U.S. Either way, prices for molten sulfur to Tampa for the first quarter were forecasted to increase, although how much was difficult to predict.
Prillers on the Gulf were running at around the same rate, about 50 percent of capacity, and inventories were about normal, although most has already been spoken for.
U.S. September sulfur imports were off 35 percent, to 115,661 st from the year-ago 177,941 st. July-September imports were off 48 percent, to 349,243 st from 677,385 st.
India: Under its tender, FACT has confirmed 25,000 mt sulfur to Swiss Singapore at US$73.10/mt CFR Cochin for delivery Nov. 29-Dec. 3.
MARKET NOTES
India: Zuari Industries Ltd. is looking to spend $800-$900 million (around Rs36.88-41.49bn) to build a gas-based factory in Karnataka that would have the capacity to produce 1 million mt/y of urea. The plant will be built in the Belgaum district bordering Maharashtra and Goa, which has a gas pipeline running through it. The company has asked for approval from the Karnataka government to go ahead with the project, a state industry department official said, speaking on condition of anonymity.
“It is in a very preliminary stage,” said Zuari Industries Managing Director H.S. Bawa. “The project will progress based on the availability of gas.” The firm will take around 40 months to build the factory once it inks a deal that ensures the supply of natural gas, Bawa said. The Union government has allocated about one-fourth of the natural gas from the offshore KG D6 field of Reliance Industries Ltd. to fertilizer companies.