AMMONIA
U.S. Gulf/Tampa: Tampa prices were on the move last week for May, with new business reported between $405-$435/mt DEL. April business had been done at $415/mt DEL.
PotashCorp sold a 10,000 mt lot to a trader for $435/mt DEL for Tampa. Sources attributed the uptick to inventory drawdowns in light of good agricultural and industrial demand, as well as demand from the phosphate industry. Sources noted that the U.S. had been taking lower-than-normal volumes. U.S. imports for July-February are off by 3 percent, to 4.24 million st from the year-ago 4.39 million st.
Another possible reason given for this higher price was trouble at Mosaic’s Faustina ammonia plant in Louisiana. In addition to supplying Mosaic’s DAP facility, this plant also has some extra product for the market. Sources reported that problems at the plant were keeping that extra product off the market at a time when dealers in the heartland needed to be restocked. There was no word from Mosaic as to how long or how severe the problem was at the Faustina facility. Some sources suggested that the $435/mt DEL Tampa price could have been in reaction to the Mosaic outage, as players had to move quickly to buy product and cover demand. They also suggested that it was a one-time, one-piece deal and could not be repeated.
On the other hand, Yara was reported to have sold its commitment to Mosaic for May at $405/mt DEL, a good $30/mt below the PotashCorp deal, and $10/mt below April business.
Other U.S. Gulf ports were reportedly attracting tons from Russia, with Nitrochem making sales to Koch and PotashCorp and perhaps others. Koch was expected to take its product off the Touraine at Taft, with another vessel, the Clipper Sea, coming in. These import prices were put in the $410-$420/mt DEL range.
In the meantime, Yara’s Tringen I plant was in the process of start-up last week. The plant has had problems in the past few weeks and has lost about two weeks worth of production.
Eastern Cornbelt: One source said preplant ammonia movement was at “full steam” in the Illinois market last week. Heavy demand and spot outages prompted some suppliers to push pricing for spot and prepay sidedress tons to the $500/st FOB level, with new sales confirmed at that number late in the week. One source said prompt tons were sold earlier in the week at $480/st FOB out of spot Illinois locations.
Several sources said the strong preplant ammonia push would start to ebb as the week advanced. Sidedress demand for ammonia and UAN will pick up quickly, however, and suppliers were restocking terminal inventories. “It’s been a hell of a run,” said one contact, in reference to ammonia usage.
Western Cornbelt: Heavy preplant fertilizer movement continued in the region last week, along with a flurry of planting activity ahead of an approaching storm system. Forecasts called for rain and possibly severe storms throughout southwestern Iowa, central and southern Illinois, and western Missouri late in the week.
Several sources said heavy preplant movement had drained inventories of many products. “All products are tight, and we’ve seen outages on almost everything,” said one Missouri contact. Anhydrous ammonia was in particularly short supply in some locations last week, and pricing had moved up dramatically in response to the heavy demand and localized outages.
Sources quoted new reference prices out of some Iowa and Missouri terminals at the $500-$515/st FOB level as the week progressed. Out of other terminals in Nebraska and northern Iowa, however, where sources said the big preplant ammonia push was already over, the low end of the range was reported at $425-$450/st FOB.
Several sources noted that the weekend rains will likely close the book on the heaviest period of preplant ammonia movement in the region. Sidedress demand could follow shortly in some locations.
Out of production points in Oklahoma, sources said some ammonia suppliers had moved to a firm $385/st FOB for any available prompt tons last week. Other contacts claimed $335-$350/st FOB could still be done on a spot basis in that market, however.
Northern Plains: The anhydrous ammonia market was tagged at $415-$425/st FOB Minnesota terminals for spot tons, with delivered ammonia in North Dakota quoted in the $450-$475/st range. The upper end of the delivered range reflected new dealer reference levels that were published later in the week, sources said.
UREA
U.S. Gulf: As with recent weeks, reports were that barges started low and worked their way up. Sources last week reported NOLA trades as low as $288-$292/st FOB, but by the end of the week were calling the market $295-$297/st FOB. Expectations were that $298-$300/st FOB would soon be achieved.
Well-placed upriver barges were garnering a premium, with the $298-$300/st FOB quotes netbacks on barges already upriver.
Eastern Cornbelt: Granular urea pricing remained at $340-$350/st FOB regional terminals to the dealer.
Western Cornbelt: Granular urea was pegged at $335-$350/st FOB in the region, with the low reported out of river locations in southern Missouri and the upper end in Iowa. One Missouri source pegged the common dealer market in his trade area at the $345/st FOB level last week.
Northern Plains: Dealers said granular urea pricing out of the Twin Cities market had dropped to $325/st FOB. In the Dakotas, the dealer market was reported in the $365-$375/st FOB or DEL range, with reference levels reportedly as high as $390/st FOB.
Northeast:Granular urea was unchanged at $350-$360/st FOB in the Northeast region. The low end was reported out of warehouse locations in western Pennsylvania, with the upper end reflecting dealer reference pricing FOB Philadelphia.
Eastern Canada: Sources tagged the granular urea market at C$455-$479/mt FOB in Eastern Canada, with the upper end reflecting dealer reference pricing. Those numbers were down from last report.
India: The industry is waiting for Indian buyers to come back into the market. Rumors are circulating that a tender might be called as early as the first week of May. Some in the industry, however, are saying that the tender call could come as late as the last week of May. If this is true, the Indian business may be the dominant topic of discussion at the IFA conference in Paris.
In the last tender India set a top price of $310/mt CFR for purchases. With the global market softening, sources say a lower ceiling should be expected.
In addition to the softer prices out of the Arab Gulf and the Black Sea, a May tender could involve July shipments of material. If that happens, Chinese tons could become part of the mix and force prices down even further.
Pakistan: It looks as if TCP is taking a short break from buying urea. Industry watchers had expected TCP to come back into the market quickly for the remaining 25,000 mt it needs from its original call for 125,000 mt of urea in March.
In two subsequent tenders, TCP issued awards for 50,000 mt each. The conventional wisdom said a third and final tender for 25,000 mt would be called by now.
Sources now say TCP may hold off until early or mid-May before it calls another tender. When that new tender comes, say sources, it could be for as much as 300,000 mt.
Pakistan’s government agencies have long held the position that following the 125,000 mt purchases, the country would still need another 200,000 mt for the upcoming application season.
Middle East: Sources report Egypt concluded a deal at $262/mt FOB for granular material. With all eyes looking at India as the next major buyer to enter the market, sources say the price an India buyer would pay is $292/mt CFR. That is about $10 less than what IPL paid in its most recent tender. Working back from the $292/mt CFR price, sources say the Arab Gulf price should be about $272/mt FOB.
Industry watchers say producers are rejecting bids at $270/mt FOB. Instead of tossing the bidder out, however, producers are reportedly inviting the potential buyer to sit down and talk about the price.
One trader noted that while nothing has been done in the Arab Gulf below the business secured in the Indian and Pakistani tenders, the conventional wisdom now puts the area for discussion below $280/mt FOB for prills and granular.
Without any new deals other than the Egyptian sale to hang a serious new price range on, sources are saying the Egyptian deal marks the low end of the Middle East granular market and the $285/mt FOB paid by IPL to Fertil marks the high end of the range.
Black Sea: Like the rest of the market, the price out of Yuzhnyy is reported down, but with little to back up the claims. Sources report buyers and sellers are talking about prices sub-$250/mt FOB. Traders are quick to point out that while the talk centers around the mid-$240s/mt FOB, no one can point to an actual sale in that range.
Many are convinced that if a deal were to be done, it would be no higher than $248/mt FOB. One trader said a firm bid at that price would secure a full cargo. Another trader added that the only reason such a deal would go through is that producers are desperate to sell at almost any price.
Traders point to a lack of buying support around the world. When tons are purchased, the deal tends to be the bare minimum needed by the buyer.
Over all, sources say, buyers are looking at a hand-to-mouth pattern for the next couple of months.
Asia: Chinese producers guessed wrong on the market trend. Sources report that a number of producers and Chinese traders moved tons into bonded warehouses at the beginning of the year anticipating strong prices and strong demand from India and Pakistan.
While the demand has been healthy, the price has been anemic.
Material that went into the warehouses at $320/mt FOB is now being offered on the market at $270/mt FOB. And the offers are still going unanswered.
The holders of those tons are now coming up on the threat of a continued soft market and more Chinese urea being offered in post-July 1 sales.
Part of the problem the Chinese producers faced is the weather. Droughts throughout Asia have pushed back applications seasons to such a degree that some countries are considering scrapping an entire crop season.
In some cases, such as Thailand, the omission of a rice season is also because rice prices have fallen, said one source. By skipping a planting season, the rice prices should rebound.
At the same time, the urea that is currently stored in the warehouses can be used later.
Other Asian countries have also experienced drought conditions and are only now beginning to start applications. And in just about every case, the warehouses from port to field are full. The best guess for most of Asia is that no new cargoes will be needed any time soon.
NITROGEN SOLUTIONS
U.S. Gulf: Barges continued to be called $200-$205/st FOB ($6.25-$6.50/unit) last week, with CF still seeking $215/st FOB. While some still felt something could be done between $195-$200/st FOB, there was no firm word on such being done last week. There was some concern uttered that a great ammonia season, complete with sidedress, might hamper UAN’s luster.
Eastern Cornbelt: One Illinois source said he was glad to see rain moving in for the weekend, as he was waiting on replacement UAN tons and wanted to be fully restocked and ready for the upcoming sidedress demand.
Sources continued to quote the UAN-32 market in the $240-$260/st ($7.50-$8.13/unit) FOB range, with the low reported on a spot basis in Illinois. One source pegged the common dealer market in the $255-$260/st ($7.97-$8.13/unit) FOB range in his trade area last week.
Western Cornbelt: UAN-32 was quoted in a broad range at $240-$260/st FOB ($7.50-$8.13/unit), with the low reported out of regional production points and the upper end reflecting the common dealer price out of terminals. One source talked of low UAN inventories and/or outages at some locations in the region.
Northern Plains: The UAN-28 market was quoted at $222-$230/st ($7.93-$8.21/unit) FOB regional terminals, with the low FOB Pine Bend, Minn. One source pegged the Sioux City, Iowa, market for UAN-32 at the $253/st ($7.91/unit) FOB level last week. Delivered UAN-28 in North Dakota was reported in the $250-$260/st ($8.93-$9.29/unit) range.
Northeast: UAN-30 remained at $210-$216/st ($7.00-$7.20/unit) FOB Baltimore, with the low to national accounts. One source pegged the common level to dealers in the $212-$216/st ($7.07-$7.20/unit) FOB range at midweek. Out of terminals in upstate New York, the UAN-32 market was tagged at $7.50-$8.00/unit FOB, with the upper end reflecting reference levels.
Eastern Canada: UAN-28 pricing was down from last report in Eastern Canada, with sources quoting the dealer market at C$262-$277/mt ($9.36-$9.89/unit) FOB regional terminals. Dealer reference levels remained at C$283/mt ($10.11/unit) FOB for UAN-28 and C$315/mt ($9.84/unit) FOB for UAN-32, depending on location and supplier.
Western U.S.: Agrium’s UAN-32 postings in California moved on April 19 to $268/st ($8.38/unit) FOB Sacramento, $290/st ($9.06/unit) truck-DEL in Central California, and $295/st ($9.22/unit) truck-DEL in Northern California.
Dyno Nobel issued a statement last week apparently putting to rest talk of a shutdown at the company’s St. Helens UAN plant in Oregon. The St. Helens plant was reported to be fully operational as of April 13 after being down for a short period of time to resolve maintenance issues.
AMMONIUM NITRATE
U.S. Gulf: The last word on barges was the action during the previous week for May barges at $245-$250/st FOB.
Western Cornbelt: Ammonium nitrate was reportedly in very tight supply in the region. Sources quoted the dealer market at $290-$295/st FOB for the last tons sold. One supplier said he would have more ammonium nitrate tons available by the final week of April, with dealer pricing likely to firm to the $305/st FOB mark at that time.
Eastern Canada: Sources reported no current prices for ammonium nitrate in the region, with one claiming product was sold out in his trade area. CAN-27 was pegged at C$348/mt FOB in Ontario.
AMMONIUM SULFATE
Eastern Cornbelt: Granular ammonium sulfate was pegged at $240-$260/st FOB or rail-DEL, with the upper end reflecting new dealer postings. Sources reported tight supplies in the region.
Western Cornbelt: Granular ammonium sulfate remained at $235-$240/st FOB in the region, where available. Several suppliers said they were out of product last week. Others claimed one producer had recently reposted to the $260/st rail-DEL level in the region.
Effective April 26, ammonium sulfate postings from American Plant Food will firm $10/st. As a result, the company’s granular ammonium sulfate prices in Texas will move to $215/st FOB Freeport, $225/st FOB Galena Park, $240/st FOB Fort Worth, and $255/st FOB Littlefield. Granular ammonium sulfate FOB Mermentau, La., will move on that date to $245/st. Coarse grade postings will move to $205/st FOB Freeport, $215/st FOB Galena Park, $230/st FOB Fort Worth, and $245/st FOB Littlefield, while standard grade ammonium sulfate will move to $200/st FOB Freeport and $240/st FOB Littlefield. APF’s N-Pac Compacted posting will firm on April 26 to $230/st FOB Galena Park.
Northern Plains: Granular ammonium sulfate pricing was up from last report. Sources tagged the market at $240-$260/st FOB in the region, with the upper end also reflecting new rail-delivered postings from one supplier.
Northeast: Sources tagged the granular ammonium sulfate market at $214-$226/st FOB in the region, which was up from last report. No current delivered prices were reported last week.
Eastern Canada: Granular ammonium sulfate was up from last report at C$318-$340/mt FOB in Ontario, with fine grade referenced at the C$190/mt FOB level.
PHOSPHATES
Central Florida: Activity in the Northeast slowed last week, when spring fell back and cold returned. Nevertheless, the season was in full bloom, and railcars and trucks were moving throughout the eastern part of the country.
Trucks were in heavy demand around the country, and Florida was no exception. Most business was being done out of nearby terminals, and trucks were better able than rail lines to deliver phosphate to dealers.
Most rail deliveries made last week were purchased earlier, but Mosaic was making sales in the $410-$415/st FOB range. CF was said not to have product available for new, prompt shipment.
The Central Florida DAP price range last week changed from $410-$420/st FOB the previous week to $410-$415/st FOB. Mosaic’s posted price was $415/st FOB, but it was also offering some buyers as low as $410/st FOB, while CF’s price was $410/st, although product may not be available. PCS Sales was charging market-based prices. Agrifos’ prices were $450/st FOB for DAP and $460/st FOB for MAP, but railcars were about $5/st FOB less, if available.
U.S. Gulf: NOLA DAP barges in position were not only bringing a premium last week, but were pretty much the only ones being sold.
The spring season was going full throttle last week, as farmers were hard at work in their fields, and terminals and warehouses were running low or out completely. Most traders and dealers want to see the bottoms of their bins by the end of the season, and few were willing to take a chance on buying material that they can’t move right away because of the possibility the price will go down when the season comes to an end.
Sellers don’t really mind the reluctance of their customers to hold off buying, because those bins will need to be refilled by late summer for the fall season.
Apparently even more corn was being planted than originally anticipated, and the corn market dropped on the news last week. However, near the end of the week, the price had risen to nearly the same level, about $3.90/bushel.
Warehouse and terminal prices were on the way up last week, which will help offset the higher price for NOLA DAP barges. The range ran from $450/st FOB to $460/st FOB. However, as the season comes to a close and bins run empty, the remaining supplies will bring a better price, said sources. One trader who bought last week said he had not set a price for it at the terminal, because he expected the price to rise this week.
Based on transactions last week, the NOLA DAP barge price range changed from $420-$425/st FOB to a flat $425/st FOB. Unless warehouse prices go up, it will be difficult for NOLA phosphate prices to go up more than a few dollars. Time and location will continue to be the biggest influences during the next week, and some locations will not be able to receive new shipments in time for this season.
Eastern Cornbelt: DAP was steady at $450-$465/st FOB most regional warehouses to the dealer, with most sources touting the low end as the common dealer number. MAP was $10-$15/st higher than DAP. Sources talked of tight phosphate supplies, with one saying his business was out of product at 75 percent of their locations.
10-34-0 was unchanged at $355-$365/st FOB in the region.
Western Cornbelt: DAP was pegged at $440-$450/st FOB regional warehouses to the dealer, with the low out of spot river locations. Most sources quoted the $450/st level as the common dealer price in the Western Cornbelt last week. DAP was in low supply at some locations.
MAP was quoted at $450-$465/st FOB in the region. 10-34-0 remained at $350-$360/st FOB, with several Iowa sources quoting the common dealer price at the $355/st FOB level.
Northern Plains: The DAP market was pegged at $450-$460/st FOB the Twin Cities. MAP was $10-$15/st higher than DAP. Dakota sources quoted MAP at $475-$480/st FOB Sioux City and $490-$515/st DEL to points in North Dakota, depending on location.
10-34-0 was reported at $345/st FOB Minnesota terminals and $355-$365/st DEL in North Dakota.
Northeast: MAP was pegged at $470-$480/st FOB in the Northeast region, with DAP at $460-$465/st FOB, where available. The 10-34-0 market was quoted at $355-$360/st FOB.
Eastern Canada: MAP was tagged at C$571-$589/mt FOB in Ontario, with the upper end reflecting the dealer reference price. That range was down from last report. One supplier quoted DAP at C$560/mt FOB in Ontario, with TSP at the C$565/mt FOB mark, where available.
U.S.Export: PhosChem, which has a big book of business for delivery in May, was not in the market last week due to lower export DAP prices.
India, which was the source of PhosChem’s May business, was still buying. It made a deal for 200,000 mt from Morocco. Pakistan was said to have purchased 30,000 to 40,000 mt from China at $495-$505/mt CFR.
Another source said more inquiries were being received from Latin America, although no new deals had been concluded.
The export DAP price range last week was unchanged at $465-$470/mt FOB.
Pakistan: The country has placed another order for the import of 30,000 mt DAP to partially meet requirements in the coming season. According to market sources, Transammonia sold one cargo of Chinese DAP to Pak-American Fertilizer for June shipment at a price said to be at the $495-$505/mt CFR level. Earlier, Engro bought 100,000 mt of DAP (30,000 mt from Dreymoor and 70,000 mt from Transammonia) in February 2010.
Pakistan will need to import 500,000 mt of DAP to meet partial requirements in the Kharif 2010 season (April-September), according to a report from the National Fertilizer Development Centre (NFDC), which also estimates the domestic production at 300,000 mt during this period.
POTASH
Eastern Cornbelt: The potash market appeared to be up out of regional warehouses, with sources talking of good demand and some spot shortages. The dealer market was reported in the $400-$420/st FOB range, depending on grade and location.
Western Cornbelt: Potash pricing continued to bounce around on the secondary market, with some sources reporting shortages “here and there.” The dealer market was tagged in a broad range at $400-$420/st FOB, with the upper end reported in western Iowa. One Missouri supplier was listing granular potash to the dealer at $405/st FOB for red and $412/st FOB for white.
Northern Plains: Potash remained at $367-$380/st FOB Saskatchewan mines, depending on grade and supplier. Delivered potash was quoted in a broad range at $410-$440/st in the Dakotas, with reports of limited truck availability and higher freight rates. Out of regional warehouses, the potash market was quoted in a broad range at $395-$420/st FOB, with the low at the Twin Cities and the upper end FOB Sioux City.
Northeast: The potash market was tagged at $410-$417/st FOB and $425-$433/st rail-DEL in the Northeast, depending on grade and location. Several sources talked of brisk potash movement so far this spring.
Eastern Canada: Potash out of regional warehouses remained at C$480-$490/mt FOB in Eastern Canada, depending on location and grade, with the upper end reported for white granular product.
K-Mag was quoted at C$335-$344.50/mt FOB in Ontario, with the upper end reflecting the posted dealer price. The sulfate of potash (SOP) market was tagged at C$645/mt FOB in Ontario.
SULFUR
Tampa: Second-quarter contract price negotiations between phosphate producers and their sulfur suppliers continued last week, and a source close to the talks said the two sides were moving toward an agreement on the price.
The question was – how much will it go up? Speculation has held it will be somewhere between $150/lt and $200/lt. During the past few weeks the international sulfur market was closer to the lower figure, but that did not include delivery, which Tampa contracts do include in the price.
Refiners were continuing to produce more fuel and rates were running above 85 percent of capacity last week. That has helped the supply, but demand still was in excess of supply. Phosphate producers have curtailed production due to the shortage, and phosphate inventories were relatively low.
A sulfur vessel was loaded at Beaumont last week, which drew down the inventories at Martin’s prill plant there.
Vancouver: Negotiations for new contracts with Brazil were continuing last week, and China was still holding off making new buys due to the higher price.