AMMONIA
U.S. Gulf/Tampa: The market was quiet leading up to talks about June pricing. Mosaic’s Faustina ammonia plant has returned to production, taking some pressure off the market for the next round of trading.
Ammonia imports were up 11 percent in March, according to the U.S. Department of Commerce (DOC), to 649,399 st from the year-ago 584,980 st. However, July-March was still off 2 percent, to 4.89 million st from 4.97 million st.
Eastern Cornbelt: Sources quoted the anhydrous ammonia market at $440-$480/st FOB regional terminals, with the low end reported out of spot Illinois locations and the upper number quoted out of Indiana terminals. List prices from several regional suppliers remained at the $480/st FOB mark or higher, with some reportedly still indicating no prompt tons for sale after the heavy preplant run.
Western Cornbelt: The spot ammonia market remained in a broad range at $410-$480/st FOB regional terminals, with the low in Nebraska and the upper end in Missouri. Iowa sources pegged the common dealer market in the $425-$450/st FOB range last week.
Northern Plains: Dealers said the heaviest nitrogen run was finished now that most of the region’s corn crop was in the ground. Sources said they still expect some strong fertilizer demand for soybeans in the region, particularly for potash. Fields were wet in much of the region last week, however, and temperatures were below seasonal averages.
The anhydrous ammonia market was quoted at $405-$425/st FOB Minnesota terminals, depending on location, with the low at Vernon Center and the upper end reflecting the dealer price FOB Pine Bend. North Dakota sources quoted delivered ammonia at $455-$460/st for limited tons to limited locations in the state, with some suppliers on allocation at mid-month.
Great Lakes: Wet weather slowed field activities in the region last week, but planting was well advanced thanks to favorable weather conditions in April. Dealers talked of excellent spring fertilizer volumes, and additional movement is expected for the sidedress run. One source said he expects UAN and ammonia sidedress volumes in his trade area to be down slightly from average due to the plentiful preplant run.
Ammonia was quoted in the $480-$490/st FOB range by Michigan dealers FOB Courtright, Ont. Wisconsin sources reported slightly lower numbers out of Illinois terminals on a spot basis.
UREA
U.S. Gulf: Urea barges were reported to be quiet last week, with most players calling the market in the low $270s/st. Sources said all the action is at terminals and not at NOLA, and they were hoping that once those terminals run out, NOLA would again see some interest.
Some buyers felt confident that if they gave a firm offer below $270/st FOB they would own it. And there were rumors of lower prices to come, with speculation about the pricing for recent Russian imports. The paper market fed into this, with sources noting that third-quarter paper trades for NOLA were down in the $240s/st FOB.
Prills were reportedly being unloaded in NOLA, and more were on the way.
Urea imports were up 28 percent, to 849,436 st from the year-ago 661,226 st, according to DOC. However, for July-March, they were still off 3 percent, to 4.56 million st from 4.68 million st.
Eastern Cornbelt: Granular urea pricing had reportedly dipped to $320-$340/st FOB most regional terminals to the dealer, although dealer reference prices out of some inland locations in Ohio remained as high as $360/st FOB.
Western Cornbelt: Granular urea continued to slide, with dealer pricing quoted in the $310-$330/st FOB range in the region, depending on location. Dealer pricing out of lower Mississippi River terminals had reportedly slipped to the $300-$305/st FOB range at mid-month.
Northern Plains: Sources said granular urea pricing out of the Twin Cities market had dropped to $300-$310/st FOB, with the upper end reflecting the more common quote to the dealer at mid-month. In North Dakota, sources pegged reference prices at the $360/st FOB level, with delivered urea quoted in the $370-$380/st range.
Great Lakes: Urea pricing was down from last report. The granular urea market was reported in the $330-$355/st range FOB regional terminals, with the low in Wisconsin and the upper end to the dealer FOB Michigan warehouses. Michigan contacts talked of tight urea inventories at many locations, with some touting dealer reference prices as high as $370/st FOB last week.
Northeast: Granular urea continued to be quoted in the $350-$355/st range FOB Philadelphia to the dealer. Out of terminals in Virginia, Georgia, and the Carolinas, urea pricing had reportedly fallen to $320-$330/st FOB.
Pakistan: Late last week TCP announced it would close a tender for 200,000 mt on June 5. The tender is for only half of what the government estimates it needs for the upcoming application season.
Just a month ago the agreed-to consensus was that TCP would only need to import an additional 200,000 mt during the summer. That changed after natural gas was diverted from urea production to electricity generation. The loss in urea production doubled the number of tons needed for import.
Industry sources are not surprised at the number of tons asked for in the tender. Pakistan rarely takes large quantities in one purchase.
Unlike its Indian counterparts, TCP does not engage in negotiations prior to or after a tender. It takes whatever quantity is offered at the lowest price. The company will then issue follow-up tenders until the original tonnage request is fulfilled.
Sources do not expect to see large initial offers in the tender. One source said that with the Indians ready to call a tender soon and a falling market, few seem willing to make large, long-term commitments for tonnage.
India: With the TCP tender now called, sources expect to see a tender call from India soon. Some traders are still holding to the idea that the call may come just as people begin arriving in Paris later this week for the annual IFA conference. Some say the call may come early this week. Others say the tender will be called after the conference.
The “after IFA” group argues that Indian reserves are strong enough to get the season started. They also say the delay in the monsoon season means demand for material will not come as early as usual.
If India can hold off until after the IFA conference, sources argue, the buyer will see competition among Black Sea, Middle East, and Chinese urea in a market that is already soft and growing softer.
In addition to the increased competition among urea sellers, the change in the Indian subsidy program means that the buyers do not have to import as much urea as before.
The new subsidy system is based on the nutrient content rather than a specific fertilizer. That means buyers could look to other nitrogen-based fertilizers. Sources point out that NPK or ammonium sulfate can be imported by the private sector and receive subsidy backing. This, observers say, could mean less urea imported and a more balanced input program for farmers.
Sri Lanka: The Ministry of Agriculture closed a tender May 7 that had area traders wondering about the direction of the market.
For example, the Toepfer “sight” offer of $355/mt CFR showed an estimated netback to the Arab Gulf of $300-$315/mt FOB. Even with subtracting $10/mt for the bagging, the price is more than $20/mt higher than where most see the market.
The other thing that surprised some traders is that while the agriculture ministry tender called for 60,000 mt, more than 400,000 mt was offered.
Overall, the offers all show a stronger market than many thought possible. The tally of the tender follows below.
The Chinese material, sources say, is most likely tons already sitting in bonded warehouses and ready for prompt shipping.
The ministry had not made a decision by the end of last week. Sources say the ministry might scrap the tender in the hopes of drawing lower prices.
Middle East: Sources say prices have not changed much. Despite the higher prices offered into Sri Lanka, sources say prills and granular have pretty much remained stable.
One source opined that one reason TCP/Pakistan called a tender for only 200,000 mt instead of the needed 400,000 mt is because the governments of Pakistan and Saudi Arabia may be in talks about another aid package that will include fertilizer deliveries. The two countries have agreed to several of these deals in the past. The current one will provide Pakistan with about 300,000 mt of urea from Sabic in the next couple of months.
Other contract deals by producers with the United States and Australia are keeping cargoes flowing.
Sources say increased demand for tons into South East Asia is being considered by suppliers. Unfortunately for the Middle East producers, there is just enough Chinese material being offered into that part of the world to offer serious competition.
Granular is seen at $260/mt FOB. One trader said a firm bid at $255/mt FOB would be snapped up. The problem, he added, is that finding a buyer at that price would be difficult.
Urea Tender |
||||||
| Company | Quantity MT | US$/mt FOB | US$/mt CFR Sight | US$/mt CFR 180 days | US$/mt CFR 270 days | Origin |
| Muscat Overseas | 25,000 | 365.00 | 391.00 | 409.00 | Ukraine | |
| Toepfer | 24,000 | 355.75 | 365.55 | 372.05 | Qatar | |
| Transammonia | 60,000 | 327.00 | Oman – China – CIS | |||
| Blue Dee Barge | 12,000 | 291.75 | 331.75 | 343.36 | 349.17 | Iran – Egypt – CIS – China |
| 12,000 | 300.00 | 340.00 | 351.90 | 357.85 | ||
| 12,000 | 305.00 | 345.00 | 357.08 | 363.11 | ||
| 24,000 | 310.00 | 350.00 | 362.25 | 368.38 | ||
| Ameropa | 36,000 | 337.65 | China – CIS – Indonesia | |||
| 12,000 | 342.05 | |||||
| 12,000 | 352.05 | |||||
| Bary Chemicals | 60,000 | 328.00 | China | |||
| Valency | 12,000 | 284.68 | 314.68 | 319.38 | China – Uzbekistan | |
| Midgulf | 24,000 | 348.50 | CIS – China | |||
| ETA* *CIF Delivered to Warehouse | 60,000 | 352.77 | 361.37 | 365.67 | Middle East – CIS – China | |
| Swiss Singapore | 24,000 | 329.43 | 333.20 | China – Middle East – Indonesia | ||
| 36,000 | 334.10 | 337.80 | Vietnam | |||
Urea in the area remains topsy-turvy compared to traditional patterns. Prills are seen as the more expensive version of urea at this time, with granular running about $10/mt cheaper.
Black Sea: While some tons are moving out, sources say large-scale sales out of the area are practically nonexistent. Demand for large cargoes is not strong enough to move the price up. At the same time, the purchases that are being made are for just enough to satisfy the buyers’ needs rather than any reserve building.
Prices remain in the low $230s/mt FOB. Even the TCP tender and the expected Indian purchases are not expected to be enough to seriously move the price.
China: Sources report ships are being booked to move material out of Chinese ports in mid- to-late June. The booking, said one trader, seems to be in anticipation of Chinese urea already in bonded warehouses finally getting sold. Some say the material may end up in Pakistan, while others say the vessel bookings are being done to anticipate prompt shipping under an Indian tender.
The urea ships are competing at the ports with vessels loading phosphates. That competition will increase after June 1, when the phosphate export duty drops to 7 percent.
For now, Chinese urea is pegged in the $260s/mt FOB.
The main markets for the Chinese product are fellow Asian buyers.
Sources say the ability to pick up cargoes of 5-15,000 mt is attractive to buyers in Thailand or the Philippines.
Producers continue to face the problem of weak domestic demand and pressure to continue to operate. Sources report many of the domestic warehouses are full. The only place to move the tons, they say, is to offshore markets.
One trader said that come July 1, when the export duty drops to 7 percent, many of the tons currently in domestic warehouses will be offered to international buyers.
The export season will be briefly interrupted in August and September, and then restart in October for the rest of the year. Producers hope to nail down plenty of end-year sales.
NITROGEN SOLUTIONS
U.S. Gulf: The market remained quiet, with sources still calling it $200-$205/st FOB ($6.25-$6.41/unit). Some players remember last year when prices dropped into the $120s/st FOB during the summer, and are a tad skittish about holding onto too many barges as the season ends. However, unlike last year, inland inventories are more likely to be empty, according to most.
March imports were up 57 percent, to 312,023 st from the year-ago 198,846 st, according to DOC. However, July March imports were off 6 percent, to 1.27 million st from 1.35 million st.
Eastern Cornbelt: UAN-32 was pegged at $7.50-$8.00/unit FOB in the region, with the low out of Illinois river terminals and the upper end out of inland locations in the region. One source quoted the Cincinnati market at the $7.85/unit FOB level to the dealer last week.
Western Cornbelt: UAN-32 was quoted in the $235-$255/st ($7.34-$7.97/unit) range FOB regional terminals, with the low out of spot river locations at mid-month. Those numbers reflected a slight drop from last report.
Northern Plains: The UAN market remained at $7.91-$8.21/unit FOB regional terminals, with the upper end quoted at $230/st for UAN-28 out of spot Minnesota terminal locations.
Great Lakes: The UAN market was pegged in a broad range in the region. In Michigan, UAN-28 was reported in the $230-$240/st ($8.21-$8.57/unit) FOB range to the dealer, while Wisconsin sources quoted UAN-32 at $250/st ($7.81/unit) FOB on the low end.
Northeast: UAN-30 was quoted at $205-$215/st ($6.83-$7.17/unit) FOB Baltimore and Philadelphia to the dealer, down slightly from last report. Sources talked of brisk solutions movement in recent weeks, and tight inventories. Some suppliers have reportedly moved in additional tons for the sidedress run in late May and June.
Out of terminals in upstate New York, the UAN-32 market was steady at $7.50-$7.75/unit FOB.
AMMONIUM NITRATE
U.S. Gulf: Barges were called $250-$255/st FOB and hard to find.
March imports were about level with year-ago levels, with the recent month at 59,985 st and the year-ago 59,807 st. However, July-March were off 28 percent, to 377,750 st from 522,017 st.
Western Cornbelt: Ammonium nitrate remained in the $305-$325/st FOB range in the region, where available, with the upper end reported in Iowa.
AMMONIUM SULFATE
Eastern Cornbelt: Granular ammonium sulfate was steady
at $250-$260/st FOB or rail-DEL in the region.
Western Cornbelt: Granular ammonium sulfate was quoted in the $250-$260/st FOB range in the region, with tight supplies reported.
Northern Plains: Granular ammonium sulfate was tagged at $250/st FOB Minneapolis and $250/st DEL in North Dakota out of Beulah. Dealer reference pricing was quoted at $260/st FOB or DEL from some suppliers.
Great Lakes: Granular ammonium sulfate was quoted at $238-$260/st FOB, with the low in Michigan. The upper end was reported by Wisconsin sources for FOB or rail-delivered tons from Honeywell.
Northeast: Granular ammonium sulfate was reported in a broad range at $214-$240/st FOB, with the upper end in Philadelphia.
PHOSPHATES
Central Florida: As bad as it was, the Central Florida DAP market was leading the charge last week for the major North American wholesale markets. Producers were shipping some railcars and truckloads purchased on a prompt basis into the Southeast, but even that will likely dwindle this week.
The spring season has essentially ended and no fill programs were being offered, so dealers were allowing their bins to run empty and were willing to bet that prices will decline during the next month or two, when they will have to refill for the fall season.
Producers were not overly concerned, because they have a large book of export business they will need to fill. That will last until the domestic buyers are in the mood to return to the market for fall.
Most buyers believe that prices will decline during that time – and they may – but it did not appear the drop would be very significant. However, there was not much chance prices will suddenly escalate during the next couple of months, either, so doing nothing was probably a good idea.
The Central Florida DAP price range last week continued unchanged from the previous week at $410-$415/st FOB. Mosaic’s posted price was $415/st FOB, but national accounts could purchase product for about $5/st FOB less, while CF’s price was $410/st. MAP prices were uniformly $10/st FOB more than DAP. PCS Sales was charging market-based prices. The prices from Agrifos were $440/st FOB for DAP and $450/st FOB for MAP, but railcars were about $5/st FOB less, if available.
U.S. Gulf: Weather in the Midwest slowed field activity last week, but the season was coming to a close there and almost everywhere, except the Dakotas and western Canada, which should be starting soon. However, little of that business was supplied from the Gulf river market. The worst of the weather hit in Oklahoma and Kansas last week, where tornadoes killed three people and hospitalized more.
Warehouses accounted for most of the business last week, but terminals were running low on phosphate and very few had any plans to re-supply before they prepare for the fall season. Little activity was expected until June or July. Most would like to see a decrease in price, but that will probably be on a small scale, because the industry had large commitments in the export market, which will hold down inventories.
Warehouse prices were relatively unchanged from the week before, in the $445-$455/st FOB range.
Mosaic’s Faustina ammonia plant was up and running again last week, which will help the company with its supply situation, although it will not make much difference in NOLA DAP demand.
Last week China agreed to buy another six cargos of corn from the U.S., which will bring the total to eight vessels of 50,000 to 55,000 mt each. Although the amount was relatively small, it was considered to be significant, because China has made few purchases of corn from this country for several years. Meanwhile, the price of corn for December had moved very little as of late last week, still near $3.80/bushel.
Because crops went into the ground early this season, an early harvest was expected. Sources said the spring season was good and, if the corn price and harvest meet expectations, the fall season will follow suit.
By late last week the barges in position were essentially gone, and the only ones available were still to be loaded in New Orleans and were being offered at a lower price, $410/st FOB.
The NOLA DAP barge price range last week flattened from $417-$420/st FOB NOLA the previous week to $410/st FOB, with the disappearance of barges in position and the end of the spring season. Sources predict prices will likely remain at the low level for several weeks.
Eastern Cornbelt: DAP was tagged at $445-$460/st FOB regional warehouses, down slightly from last report, with the low out of spot river locations in Illinois and the upper end at inland shipping points in the region. MAP was $10/st higher than DAP. 10-34-0 remained at $340-$360/st FOB, with the low in Illinois.
Western Cornbelt: DAP was quoted at $445-$455/st FOB regional warehouses, with MAP $10/st higher. 10-34-0 remained at $335-$355/st FOB in the region, with the low in Nebraska and the high in Iowa.
Northern Plains: The DAP market was pegged at $445-$450/st FOB the Twin Cities, with MAP $10/st higher. The upper end of the MAP range was quoted at $475/st FOB North Dakota warehouses on a spot basis.
The 10-34-0 market remained at $340-$345/st FOB Minnesota terminals, with little demand reported now that the preplant run is finished. No current delivered prices were reported in the North Dakota market.
Great Lakes: DAP pricing covered a broad range at $445-$480/st FOB regional warehouses, with the upper end out of Michigan warehouses and the low reported by southern Wisconsin sources out of spot river locations. MAP was $10/st higher than DAP.
The 10-34-0 market was pegged at $350-$360/st FOB regional shipping points, down slightly from last report.
Northeast: The MAP market was pegged at $465-$475/st FOB regional warehouses, with DAP priced $10/st less, where available. The low end of the MAP range was quoted out of warehouse locations in western Pennsylvania. 10-34-0 was tagged at $355-$360/st FOB in upstate New York, and $370-$375/st DEL in southern Pennsylvania.
U.S. Export: Although no new export deals were found last week, it will be the export market that carries the phosphate industry for the next couple of months. PhosChem, as well as other sellers from North America, has a huge book of business with India, and India was pushing for deliveries to be made as fast as possible. In the case of PhosChem, the contract has a plus-minus clause, and India wants the plus so that deliveries will almost assuredly exceed the 2 million mt called for in the agreement. Brazil was expected to enter the market sometime soon, which will also help keep inventories down for the summer.
Due to a lack of new transactions last week, the export DAP price range was unchanged at $472-$473/mt FOB.
Sri Lanka: The Ministry of Agriculture closed a TSP tender May 7. The dominance of Chinese product underscored for some observers how many tons China has available for export once the lower export tariffs kick in June 1 (see next page).
A final decision on which company will get the award is expected soon.
India: Sources report Indian buyers have been talking about additional purchases that indicate they are willing to spend a few extra dollars per ton to ensure a steady supply of DAP and TSP.
The increase in the Indian costs appears to be coming in freight rather than the price paid to producers. Freight rates appear to be going up as more vessel owners get inquiries about moving more phosphates out of China to India after June 1.
TSP Tender |
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| Company | Quantity MT | US$/mt FOB | US$/mt CFR Sight | US$/mt CFR 180 days | US$/mt CFR 270 days | |
| Valency | 24,000 | 347.48 | 377.48 | 382.14 | China | |
| 12,000 | 356.98 | 386.98 | 391.71 | China | ||
| Blue Dee Barge | 12,000 | 397.25 | 452.25 | 468.08 | 475.99 | China |
| 12,000 | 390.00 | 445.00 | 460.58 | 468.36 | ||
| 12,000 | 410.00 | 465.00 | 481.28 | 489.41 | ||
| Ameropa | 12,000 | 379.16 | China | |||
| 12,000 | 389.16 | |||||
| Midgulf | 24,000 | 374.80 | China – Egypt | |||
| ETA* *CIF Delivered to Warehouse | 36,000 | 402.97 | 410.57 | 415.87 | China | |
| Swiss Singapore | 36,000 | 392.42 | 394.41 | China – Egypt – Tunisia | ||
POTASH
Eastern Cornbelt: Potash was generally reported in the $395-$405/st range FOB regional warehouses, depending on grade and location, with the upper end also quoted by Illinois sources for rail-delivered potash tons at mid-month.
Western Cornbelt: Potash was pegged at $395-$410/st FOB regional warehouses, depending on location.
Northern Plains: Potash remained at $367-$380/st FOB Saskatchewan mines, depending on grade and supplier. Delivered potash was quoted at $410-$425/st in the Dakotas. Out of regional warehouses, potash was quoted at $390-$410/st FOB, with the low out of the Twin Cities market.
Great Lakes: Potash was pegged at $405-$417/st FOB, with the upper end quoted by Michigan sources for white granular tons.
Northeast: The potash market was tagged at $402-$410/st FOB and $425-$430/st rail-DEL in the Northeast region, depending on grade and location. The low end of the FOB range was once again reported out of warehouse locations in western Pennsylvania.
U.S. Imports: Potash imports soared 215 percent in March, to 1.17 million st from the year-ago 371,637 st. The surge caught imports up for the year. July-March imports are now up 2 percent, to 6.2 million st from the year-ago 6.1 million st.
Sri Lanka: The Ministry of Agriculture closed a tender for MOP May 7. Results in the tender follow below.
| Potash Tender | |||||
| Company | Quantity MT | US$/mt CFR Sight | US$/mt CFR 180 days | US$/mt CFR 270 days | Origin |
| Toepfer | 36,000 | 440.20 | 451.25 | 459.80 | CIS |
| Dragon Asia | 12,000 | 450.00 | 457.75 | CIS | |
| 24,000 | 449.65 | 457.55 | CIS (In 1-2 lots) | ||
| 36,000 | 449.20 | 457.15 | CIS (In 2-3 lots) | ||
| Midgulf | 12,000 | 520.00 | Jordan | ||
| ETA In 3 lots/CIF to warehouse | 36,000 | 517.07 | 522.41 | 528.97 | CIS/Middle East |
| Swiss Singapore | 36,000 | 533.00 |
SULFUR
Tampa: The impact on sulfur of the multi-million-barrel BP oil well leak in the Gulf of Mexico was still hard to determine last week. Sources said some refineries along the Gulf were planning on reducing processing, because vessels carrying crude oil to them were fearful that they might experience long delays. As of late last week efforts to stop the leak had been unsuccessful, and the doubt will make planning difficult for all concerned.
Refineries were running around 85 percent last week, which was down slightly from the previous week. Overall, supply and demand was close to being in balance.
Predictions were that this year would be the most active hurricane season in several years. El Nino, which had cooled temperatures in the Atlantic and Gulf, had thwarted the strong storms in recent hurricane seasons, and its absence was ominous. A large storm could threaten phosphate production in Florida, oil refineries on the Gulf coast, and sulfur transportation.
Koch was said to have finished building its sulfur formation unit at Corpus Christi, although it was not clear whether full-scale production had begun.
U.S. Imports: Imports jumped 231 percent in March, to 163,678 st from the year-ago 49,495 st. However, they are still off 21 percent for the year. The July-March period was 1.02 million st, versus the year-ago 1.29 million st.
Vancouver: With prices around $130/mt FOB, not much was likely to change in the Vancouver market, unless China makes a decisive move and starts large-scale buying again. Brazil was said to be less active in recent weeks.