AMMONIA
U.S. Gulf/Tampa: Although it is still too early for Tampa numbers to be firm for December, that has not stopped industry sources from speculating. Some overseas sources have predicted they may weaken in light of stagnant international pricing. Last week officials with Phosphate Holdings Inc./Mississippi Phosphates also expressed expectations of lower prices, predicting December may be $25-$40/mt DEL lower (see page 1). Those negative assessments, however, are not in vogue in the Cornbelts, which are seeing very good fall demand.
U.S. ammonia imports in September were off 14 percent, to 579,371 st from the year-ago 673,413 st, according to the U.S. Department of Commerce. However, July-September imports were up, at 1.87 million from the year-ago 1.73 million st.
Eastern Cornbelt: Fall applications of ammonia continued at a brisk pace last week, leaving many terminals out of product. Sources tagged the spot ammonia market at $690-$705/st FOB, with the upper end confirmed for new sales in the Illinois market before inventories ran dry at midweek. A few spot sales continued out of Henderson, Ky., last week at the $690/st FOB level.
Western Cornbelt: Sources tagged the anhydrous ammonia market at $670-$700/st FOB for prompt tons, where available, with the low in Nebraska and the upper end in Iowa. That range was up from the previous week, and sources said many terminals were out of product. Out of southern production points in Kansas and Oklahoma, the ammonia market had reportedly firmed to $600-$620/st FOB, with delivered sales to Iowa reportedly taking place as high as $740-$750/st late in the week.
California: Anhydrous ammonia pricing was firming in the region last week. Effective Nov. 10, Agrium’s anhydrous ammonia postings firmed to $670/st truck-DEL in central California and $675/st truck-DEL in northern California. On Nov. 12, Calamco’s postings firmed to $610/st truck-DEL for anhydrous ammonia and $165/st FOB for aqua ammonia.
Pacific Northwest: Effective Nov. 2, Agrium’s anhydrous ammonia postings firmed to $670/st rail-DEL in Oregon, Washington, and northern Idaho; $690/st truck-DEL in Washington and Oregon east of the Cascades, and in northern Idaho; $695/st rail-DEL in southern Idaho and Utah; and $720/st truck-DEL in Montana and northern Wyoming. Those levels were up $35/st from Agrium’s Oct. 14 ammonia postings. Sources reported discounts of only $5-$8/st from posted levels.
Western Canada: Anhydrous ammonia firmed in early November to $772-$781/mt DEL in Manitoba, $781-$790/mt DEL in Saskatchewan, and $790-$817/mt DEL in Alberta, depending on location. Those levels reflected a $45/mt increase from last report. Dealer postings ranged from $782-$827/mt DEL in the region last week, depending on location.
UREA
U.S. Gulf: Prompt granular sales were called $381-$390/st FOB, with most putting their finger on the $390/st FOB mark last week. Others called December trades within the $390-$395/st FOB range.
September imports were off 5 percent, to 437,013 st from the year-ago 459,671 st. July-September imports, however, were up 28 percent, to 1.17 million st from 912,246 st.
Eastern Cornbelt: Granular urea pricing was firming in the region, with sources quoting the dealer market at $415-$440/st FOB last week. The low was reported in Cincinnati, with the upper end on a spot basis in the Illinois market. Granular urea FOB E. Liverpool, Ohio, was quoted firmly at the $420/st level.
Western Cornbelt: Granular urea was pegged at $420-$440/st FOB regional terminals to the dealer, reflecting another increase from the previous week. The upper end of the range was reported for confirmed sales in the Iowa market late last week.
California: Granular urea pricing was up in California, to $415-$430/st FOB and $435-$440/st DEL. Postings from some producers were even higher; Agrium’s granular urea postings firmed on Nov. 2 to $445/st FOB West Sacramento, $470/st truck-DEL in central California, and $475/st truck-DEL in northern California.
Pacific Northwest: Sources tagged the low end of the granular urea range at $425/st FOB on a spot basis last week, but higher postings were in effect in the Pacific Northwest region. Effective Nov. 2, Agrium’s granular urea postings firmed $20/st to $445/st FOB Idaho warehouses at Acequia and Pella; $445-$455/st DEL in Montana and Wyoming, depending on location; $460/st FOB West Woodburn, Ore.; $465/st Washington warehouses at Glade, Warden, and Wilson; $470/st DEL in Washington, Oregon, Idaho, and northern Nevada; $480/st DEL in northern and central Utah; and $485/st DEL in southern Utah.
Western Canada: Urea pricing in Western Canada was quoted at $526-$551/mt DEL, up $25/mt from last report, with the low in Manitoba and the upper end in Alberta. Dealer reference levels for granular urea ranged from $535-$560/mt DEL in the region, depending on location.
Bangladesh: BCIC has issued four tenders for import of 12,500 mt each of urea – two cargoes of prilled and granular urea in bags for a total of 50,000 mt. The product is to be offered on a CFR Chittagong or Mongla basis. The tenders close Nov. 23 and are to be valid up to Dec. 23, 2010. Sources say the urea is needed to make up for the urea plants that were idled due to the diversion of natural gas earlier in the year.
The BCIC urea plant at Ghorashal in central Bangladesh has resumed production after remaining closed for the last seven months due to the diversion of gas to power plants. The plant has production capacity of 470,000 mt/y urea.
NITROGEN SOLUTIONS
U.S. Gulf: Most put the UAN barge market at $285/st FOB ($8.91/unit).
U.S. imports in September were 160,173 st, up 87 percent from the year-ago 85,698 st. July-September imports were 351,574 st, up 48 percent from 237,559 st.
Eastern Cornbelt: UAN pricing had reportedly firmed to $10.50-$10.89/unit FOB terminals, with the low quoted for spring prepay in the Cincinnati market and the upper end for spot market tons out of inland terminals in Ohio. Illinois sources pegged the cash market for UAN-32 firmly at the $340/st ($10.63/unit) FOB level last week.
Western Cornbelt: UAN-32 was steady at $325-$340/st ($10.16-$10.63/unit) FOB regional terminals, with the low in southern Missouri on a spot basis and the upper end in Iowa.
California: The UAN-32 market had reportedly firmed to $335-$345/st ($10.47-$10.78/unit) FOB and $345-$355/st ($10.78-$11.09/unit) DEL in California. Agrium’s UAN-32 postings firmed $10/st on Nov. 2 to $343/st ($10.72/unit) FOB Sacramento, $365/st ($11.41/unit) truck-DEL in Central California, and $370/st ($11.56/unit) truck-DEL in Northern California.
Pacific Northwest: The UAN-32 market had reportedly firmed to $350-$360/st ($10.94-$11.25/unit) DEL in the region. Effective Nov. 5, IRM’s UAN-32 posting firmed to $360/st ($11.25/unit) DEL in Eastern Oregon and Washington.
Agrium’s UAN-32 postings firmed $10/st on Nov. 2 to $350/st ($10.94/unit) DEL in Washington, northern Idaho, and Oregon excluding Malheur County; $355/st ($11.09/unit) rail-DEL and $360/st ($11.25/unit) truck-DEL in Nevada, southern Idaho, and Oregon’s Malheur County; and $360/st ($11.25/unit) DEL in Montana and northern Wyoming. Agrium’s UAN-28 posting firmed on Nov. 2 to $315/st ($11.25/unit) DEL in Montana and northern Wyoming.
Western Canada: UAN-28 was quoted at $316-$331/mt ($11.29-$11.82/unit) DEL, up $15/mt from last report, with the low again reported in Manitoba and the upper end of the range in Alberta. Dealer reference levels in the region moved up to $326-$341/mt ($11.64-$12.18/unit) DEL at mid-month, depending on location.
AMMONIUM NITRATE
U.S. Gulf: While the last done business continues to be called $300-$302/st FOB, sources say barges for December are being offered at $320/st FOB.
U.S. AN imports were up 25 percent in September, to 39,177
st from the year-ago 31,325 st. July-September imports were
up 15 percent, to 106,968 st from the year-ago 93,132 st.
Western Cornbelt: Ammonium nitrate was up $5/st from last report at $355-$365/st FOB in the region for any available tons. The upper end of the range was quoted in the Iowa market.
California: No market was reported for ammonium nitrate in California. CAN-17 was pegged at $252-$270/st FOB in the state, with reference prices from Simplot in the $260-$270/st FOB range. Calamco’s AN-20 posting moved onNov. 12 to $260/st truck-DEL in California.
Pacific Northwest: Ammonium nitrate was pegged at $383/st DEL in western Montana. No current pricing was reported for CAN-27.
France: Yara’s fertilizer plant in Ambes is now not expected to be back up until late in first quarter 2011. The plant was taken down for a planned major turnaround in September, with expected start-up in December. The work needed has proven more extensive than originally foreseen. Yara’s Ambes plant has an annual production capacity of 500,000 tons ammonium nitrate using imported ammonia.
AMMONIUM SULFATE
Eastern Cornbelt: New ammonium sulfate warehouse and rail-DEL postings were announced by Honeywell, but several sources said the company also reported that they were not accepting new orders in certain areas at this time. As for existing orders on the books before the posting hike, Honeywell said those warehouse orders were required to be shipped by the end of Nov. 10.
Effective Nov. 8, Honeywell’s granular ammonium sulfate postings moved up to $250/st FOB Danville, Ill., Amherst Junction, Wisc., and Prairie Du Chien, Wisc. Honeywell’s mid-grade ammonium sulfate postings moved on that date to $240/st FOB Danville and Byron, Ill. On a rail-delivered basis in Illinois, Wisconsin, Arkansas, and Mississippi, Honeywell’s postings moved to $260/st for granular and $250/st for mid-grade ammonium sulfate.
Western Cornbelt: Iowa sources pegged the ammonium sulfate market at $250-$260/st FOB last week. Effective Nov. 8, Honeywell’s granular ammonium sulfate postings moved up to $250/st FOB Roseport, Minn., Dubuque, Iowa, St. Louis, Mo., and Omaha, Neb. Honeywell’s mid-grade ammonium sulfate postings moved on that date to $240/st FOB Roseport and Omaha. On a rail-delivered basis in Minnesota, Iowa, and Missouri, Honeywell’s postings moved to $260/st forgranular and $250/st for mid-grade ammonium sulfate.
Southern Plains: Effective Nov. 11, American Plant Food’s granular ammonium sulfate postings in Texas firmed to $225/st FOB Freeport, $235/st FOB Galena Park, $250/st FOB Fort Worth, $255/st FOB Mermentau, La., and $265/st FOB Littlefield. APF’s coarse grade postings moved to $215/st FOB Freeport, $225/st FOB Galena Park, $240/st FOB Fort Worth, and $255/st FOB Littlefield, while standard grade moved to $210/st FOB Freeport and $250/st Littlefield. APF’s N-Pac Compacted postings moved on Nov. 11 to $240/st FOB Galena Park. Those new postings reflected a $15/st increase from APF’s Oct. 4 ammonium sulfate postings.
California: Ammonium sulfate remained at $230-$240/st FOB in the California market, with the lower end for standard and fluid grade and the upper end for granular product.
Pacific Northwest: Ammonium sulfate was steady at $250-$255/st DEL in the region.
Western Canada: Granular ammonium sulfate pricing in Western Canada was up another $10/mt from last report at $340-$345/mt DEL. Dealer reference levels ranged from $350-$355/mt DEL in the region.
PHOSPHATES
Central Florida: As a trader said, there were far more buyers than there was phosphate available out of Central Florida last week. The fact that demand greatly exceeds supply was not exactly a surprise, but the desperation of those seeking it immediately was.
Inventories in Central Florida have been extremely low for months, and that situation was not likely to change until at least February – and it could be a bit longer. The heavy export schedule, mostly to India, was and still is the culprit.
None of the producers in Florida had much available to sell last week, although Mosaic was able to find enough in its bins to sell a few railcars, and a trader considered himself lucky to have placed an order a few months ago and received the product last week. He quickly turned around and sold the material for a few dollars over the current market value.
Virtually all of the material being sold during this time of year from Central Florida was going into the Eastern Cornbelt, and then onto the fields in preparation for planting corn. That’s not true for most of the northeastern part of the country, where many states do not allow it to be applied until March or April. In Maryland, applications prior to that period are not allowed out of fear the runoff would reach tributaries that flow into the already polluted Chesapeake Bay. The exception to the fertilizer application ban is for wheat crops.
Prices for DAP/MAP out of Central Florida marginally exceeded the NOLA barge market. While that was out of whack by at least $15/st FOB, the season was coming to a close, so it will matter little.
Based on actual sales last week, the Central Florida DAP price range last week was $560-$563/st FOB. Small lots from traders could cost $5-$10/st FOB more. PCS was making sales at “competitive prices.” CF raised its price for DAP from $535/st FOB to $540/st FOB, but had nothing available to sell until late this year or early next year. Mosaic’s posted price was $560/st FOB, and had a small amount of MAP available in November. MAP was bringing a premium of $10/st FOB. Agrifos’ price for truck sales was $580/st FOB, and rail – if available – was $570/st FOB. The company had no MAP available for sale. Agrifos was expected to have enough product to carry it through the first quarter of next year.
U.S. Gulf: Terminals and warehouses were scrambling to find phosphate to replace what was going out the door last week, but for most it will be for naught. NOLA phosphate barges that were ready to go late last week would not be able to reach potential buyers until it would be too late for use this winter, and would have to be used for fill. The only phosphate barges that had a chance of being bought on a prompt basis for immediate use were those near the location of the buyer.
Meanwhile, phosphate in warehouses was taking wings and flying out of bins, as farmers were looking for product to put on the ground for next spring. Like, right now. An important side benefit for warehouse owners and operators was the price – phosphate was bringing a handsome premium over the NOLA DAP/MAP barge cost. In some areas, the price the dealers were paying was between $625/st FOB and $635/st FOB.
“By Nov. 30, I think most warehouse bins will be empty,” a source said.
For growers who put phosphate down in the fall/winter for the spring, the rates have been up, and farmers in some areas who normally apply phosphate in the spring were also getting started early. So far, the weather has been very cooperative to the effort, with temperatures mild and no severe storms.
A few in the phosphate industry were a little concerned in the middle of last week, when the price of corn and other crops sagged. Although the declines were not severe, a source said that if the price of corn fell below $5/bushel, farmers might reduce their spending on fertilizers. Perhaps, but perhaps not. Remember, a few months ago farmers were buying and the price of corn was about $4/bushel.
At the middle of last week, the price of corn for December 2010 was down just a little to the $5.70/bushel range on the futures board, but the corn price for July 2011 was around $6/bushel. During the same period, the price for soybeans was about $12.80/bushel for September 2011, and wheat was $7.88/bushel for May 2011. However, if soybeans carve out ground where corn would have been planted, that would hurt the phosphate industry, because soybeans use less phosphate than corn.
Last week, the NOLA DAP barge price range was $558-$560/st FOB, which was close but below the previous week’s range of $560-$565/st FOB. Still, few sales were made. MAP, where available, was bringing a premium of about $10/st FOB for NOLA barges last week, but was $10-$20/st FOB higher at warehouses.
Eastern Cornbelt: Brisk fall movement of phosphates and potash was also taking place last week, as long as tons were available. One dealer described fall volumes as heavy in his location, noting that he hadn’t run out of tons yet, but had come very close.
Provided you could get a pricing quote last week, sources put the DAP market at $615-$630/st FOB, with the low quoted out of spot Ohio locations for January shipments. MAP was pegged at $625-$650/st FOB, where available. The low end of the MAP range was again reported in Ohio for very limited tons, but sources were unsure if that was still a good offer as the week advanced.
The 10-34-0 market was up significantly to $520-$525/st FOB based on firming ammonia and acid prices, but finding any for sale was difficult last week.
Western Cornbelt: DAP pricing continued to tick up in the region, with most sources pegging the warehouse market in the $610-$620/st FOB range for limited tons. The low was reported in Missouri, with the upper end in Iowa. MAP was reported at $620-$650/st FOB river terminals, where available.
Extremely tight inventories of 10-34-0 were also “big news” in the region, according to one source. The dealer market for 10-34-0 had reportedly firmed to $520-$525/st FOB for any available tons, up significantly from last report due to rapidly firming ammonia and acid costs.
California: DAP and MAP were tagged at $650/st FOB or DEL; Simplot republished at that level on Nov. 3, and Agrium also moved its MAP posting up on Nov. 3 to $650/st FOB warehouse or rail-DEL in California and Arizona. That level reflected a $15/st increase from Agrium’s Oct. 19 MAP posting.
16-20-0 was up as well, to $416-$423/st FOB in the state, depending on location. 10-34-0 was pegged at $431-$441/st FOB in California, up $25-$30/st from last report, with the upper end of the range reported on Nov. 12 following Calamco’s $40/st hike in ammonia pricing.
Simplot’s new reference prices for 11-37-0 ranged from $463-$468/st FOB El Centro.
Simplot’s postings for super phosphoric acid (SPA) and merchant grade acid (MGA) firmed on Nov. 1 to $10.00/unit DEL, with MGA also posted at $10.20/st FOB in California. Effective Nov. 1, Agrium’s phosphoric acid postings firmed to $1,000/st DEL for both SPA and MGA in California and Arizona. Agrium has an increase to $1,075/st DEL scheduled for Dec. 1.
Pacific Northwest: Sources reported some phosphates and potash moving to the field in the region in early November. The DAP and MAP markets had firmed to $635-$645/st FOB or DEL in the region, with the low in Montana and the upper end in Washington. Simplot’s reference prices moved on Nov. 3 to $645/st in Washington, Oregon, and Nevada, $640/st in Idaho, and $635/st in Montana.
Also effective Nov. 3, Agrium’s MAP postings firmed to $635/st DEL in Montana and northern Wyoming; $640/st DEL in southern Idaho, Utah, Nevada, and Oregon’s Malheur County; and $640/st FOB and $645/st DEL in Washington, northern Idaho, and Oregon excluding Malheur County. Those levels were up $15/st from Agrium’s Oct. 19 MAP postings.
10-34-0 was in tight supply, with the market quoted at a solid $475/st FOB in the region last week. Simplot’s new reference price for 16-20-0 was $408/st DEL in the region, also up from last report.
Simplot was referencing SPA and MGA at a firm $10.00/unit DEL in the region for November, with the FOB Pocatello price at $9.50/unit for truckloads. Effective Nov. 1, Agrium’s phosphoric acid postings firmed to $1,000/st DEL for both SPA and MGA in Idaho, Montana, Nevada, Oregon, Utah, and Washington. The company has an increase to $1,075/st DEL scheduled for Dec. 1.
Western Canada: The MAP market had reportedly firmed to $737-$742/mt DEL in Manitoba, $742-$752/mt DEL in Saskatchewan, and $747-$772/mt DEL in Alberta, depending on location. Those levels reflected a $20/mt increase from last report. MAP postings ranged from $740-$775/mt DEL in the region last week.
10-34-0 was pegged at $540-$553/mt DEL in the region last week, up $10/mt from last report.
U.S. Export: PhosChem made a sale of a small vessel of DAP into Mexico at $582/mt FOB for delivery in December. Although the price was below the one it made a week earlier, the earlier sale was for delivery in January, so both were still indicative of the market.
Export sales could get a boost now that the Federal Reserve has moved to reduce the value of the U.S. Dollar, but inventories were already extremely low and the North American market was paying a premium to the export business.
While the export market was expected to continue to be restrained in the near future, exports could get a bounce if China imposes its 110 percent levy on its own phosphate exports. That would remove about 1 million mt from the supply chain, and help push up prices.
The export DAP price range last week moved from $580-$600/mt FOB the previous week to $582-$600/mt FOB, based on sales, although they were few and small.
Bangladesh: BCIC is seeking to buy 15,000 mt of phosphate rock (65.5 percent BPL Min.) on a C&F Chittagong basis. Offers shall be received up to Dec. 20 and be valid for 30 days.
Pakistan: According to the latest report of the Pakistan National Fertilizer Development Centre (NFDC), about 150,000 mt of DAP has to be imported in October/November 2010 to meet the demands for the country’s Rabi season (Oct-March 2010-11). The country would need a total of 750,000 mt of DAP during the season.
Meanwhile, Pakistani farmers have been hard hit by the high price of imported DAP and recent increases in the diesel and power tariffs. Market sources observed that dealers/importers are minting money on old stocks. It is said that with the advent of the wheat sowing season, DAP prices are up sharply in the country.
POTASH
Eastern Cornbelt: Potash remained tough to find out of regional warehouses. Sources quoted the market firmly in the $510-$515/st FOB range for any available tons, with one source reporting that the only business taking place was between dealers. Others said they were still waiting on shipments of summer fill tons. “It will take a long time to replenish the system,” said one contact.
Western Cornbelt: Potash was pegged at a firm $510-$515/st FOB for very limited warehouse tons in the region.
California: Potash pricing had firmed dramatically and was in very tight supply. Sources tagged the dealer market at $545-$558/st DEL, depending on grade and supplier, with reports that granular potash from some suppliers is sold out through February 2011.
Potassium nitrate remained at $929-$996/st FOB, with the low for bulk tons and the upper end for bagged product.
Sulfate of potash (SOP) was quoted at $635-$655/st FOB for bulk tons, with the upper end of the range reflecting new reference levels.
Pacific Northwest: Potash pricing had reportedly firmed to $535-$560/st DEL in the region, depending on grade, supplier, and location. Effective Nov. 4, Agrium’s red premium potash postings firmed to $525/st FOB and $535/st rail-DEL in southern Idaho, Utah, and Oregon’s Malheur County; $530/st FOB and $540/st rail-DEL in Washington, the Idaho panhandle, and Oregon excluding Malheur County and the Willamette Valley; and $535/st FOB and $545/st rail-DEL in Oregon’s Willamette Valley.
Intrepid Potash’s postings FOB Moab and Wendover, Utah, moved on Nov. 1 to $480/st for 60 percent standard and $485/st for 60 percent granular.
Western Canada: Potash pricing was up dramatically from last report. Sources pegged the market FOB Saskatchewan mines at $542-$551/mt FOB, with the low for 60 percent and the upper end for 62 percent muriate. Those numbers reflected a $50-$70/mt increase from October pricing. Out of regional warehouses, the potash market was up at least $80/mt from last report at $557-$582/mt FOB, depending on grade and location.
U.S. Imports: Potassium muriate imports were up 98 percent in September, to 763,916 st from the year-ago 386,531 st. July-September imports were up 97 percent, to 2.14 million st from the year-ago 1.09 million st.
SULFUR
Tampa: As expected, Hurricane Tomas swung northeast and entered the Atlantic without ever entering the Gulf of Mexico. Most likely, it was the last gasp of a busy storm season that spared the sulfur industry from shipping problems, as well as the refineries along the Gulf Coast and phosphate mining and processing in Florida from damage. A blow to anyone of those industries would have had serious consequences for the sulfur industry.
Sulfur continued to be in strong demand from the phosphate industry, as well as metals producers, tire manufacturers, and the chemical industry. All of that demand should also translate into a growing economy, which in turn will demand even more sulfur.
Refinery rates bumped up a little bit last week, about 0.6 percent, to 82.4 percent of capacity, in comparison to a rate of 81.8 percent the previous week, according to the U.S. Department of Energy.
A source said the sulfur meeting recently held in Prague was generally optimistic, although it was believed the world price had hit a ceiling – at least temporarily.
U.S. Imports: Imports were up 69 percent, to 195,671 st in September from the year-ago 115,661 st. July-September imports were up 84 percent, to 642,729 st from the year-ago 349,243 st.
Vancouver: Spot prices were in the $135-$150/mt FOB range last week, while recent contracts for the fourth quarter were in the range of $125-$145/mt. There had been no success in pushing the price China pays to as much as $200/mt DEL.