AMMONIA
U.S. Gulf/Tampa: Major players concluded February business for Tampa at $515/mt CFR, up $40/mt from January. Some sellers said that with increased prices from the Black Sea, prices could have gone up even more.
In the meantime, Yara was reported to have returned one of its Trinidad plants back to production Jan. 31 after it had been down for about a month.
Eastern Cornbelt: Sources continued to report spring prepay ammonia at the $675/st FOB level in the Illinois market, though some suppliers were reportedly trying to firm that number to the $680/st FOB level in early February. The upper end of the regional market was tagged at $685-$690/st FOB Huntington, Ind., for prompt tons.
Western Cornbelt: Anhydrous ammonia was pegged in the $630-$670/st FOB range out of regional terminals, depending on location and time of delivery.
Southern Plains: The anhydrous ammonia market remained at $585-$610/st FOB regional terminals for prompt tons, with the low out of southern production points. Kansas sources talked of spring prepay tons being offered in late January in the $610-$615/st FOB range, but others reported little in the way of spring offerings last week.
Fertilizer dealers continued to talk of hesitancy on the part of growers to commit to spring fertilizer tons. “We are actually having our people ask our customers what they will need to do some forecasting for spring need,” said one contact. “They claim that they are undecided. That’s something new for some customers.”
South Central: The anhydrous ammonia market was quoted at $670-$685/st FOB terminals, with the low reported out of Memphis, Tenn., and the high at Henderson, Ky., for limited prepay tons. Several sources said ammonia inventories have tightened with the loss of ammonia storage at Blytheville, Ark., following the recent decision by Kinder Morgan Energy Partners LP to not renew Terra Industries Inc.’s anhydrous ammonia storage contract (GM Sept. 20, 2010).
Black Sea: Sources report that bids are now coming in above $470/mt FOB, but nailing down any business at that level has been hard. The news from Tampa that the new price for February came in at $515/mt CFR should help move up the Yuzhnyy price.
Sales out of the Black Sea have been steady, with strong demand around the world.
For now, sources are pegging the market at $465-$475/mt FOB, with the real likelihood that the price will be solidly in the $470s over the weekend.
Middle East: In the absence of any spot deals the public price for ammonia remains just under $420/mt FOB. Asian sources say the increase in the Tampa price, along with strong demand in India and Southeast Asia, should move the price up soon.
UREA
U.S. Gulf: Granular urea barge prices continued to fall early in the week, with most players calling the bottom in the $363-$365/st FOB range. However, by midweek prices turned around and shot up, with most saying they hit the $380/st FOB mark if not higher. Why the uptick? While some cited unrest in Egypt, others cited Pakistan’s finally coming back into the market for 225,000 mt as just as big a factor. Most say the NOLA market itself remains flush with tons and that prices have been dropping below international levels. Now, with panic and demand in the international market, they say sellers saw an opportunity to stop NOLA price erosion.
As for the earlier erosion, sources said some players with large inventories were willing sellers at lower numbers, but only to a point. Once they had sold all they wanted and buyers were back in the market, prices started going back up, and they did so at a quick pace. By late in the week, quotes were $380-$385/st FOB.
Eastern Cornbelt: Granular urea remained in the $420-$440/st FOB range in the region, with the low reported in the Illinois market and the upper end on a spot basis in Ohio. One Illinois contact put the dealer market in his territory at the $425/st FOB level last week.
Western Cornbelt: The granular urea market remained in a broad range at $400-$440/st FOB, with the low reported in southern Missouri and the upper end out of inland terminals in Iowa. Out of river locations in Iowa, sources tagged the dealer market commonly in the $420-$425/st FOB range last week.
SouthernPlains: Before snowfall, cold temperatures, and high winds halted activity in early February, dealers reported some wheat topdress activity in the region. On the pricing front, sources quoted the granular urea market at $395-$405/st FOB in the region. Koch’s reference price at Enid, Okla., firmed from $395/st to $400/st FOB on Feb. 4.
SouthCentral: Granular urea pricing remained in the $405-$415/st range FOB regional terminals, with the low quoted in the Arkansas market and the upper end FOB Memphis. Several sources said the market might have bottomed, citing the unrest in Egypt and the outlook for big cotton and rice crops. “Maybe we have an opportunity for urea to actually go up during rice season this year,” said one.
Southeast: The granular urea market was pegged in the $425-$430/st range FOB port terminals. Sources quoted the Savannah, Ga., market firmly at the $425/st FOB level, while postings from PCS Sales moved last week to $435/st FOB Norfolk, Va., and $430/st FOB Wilmington, N.C., and Brunswick, Ga.
Pakistan: TCP finally called a tender for 225,000 mt to close Monday, Feb. 7. The rapid nature of the tender indicated to some Asian sources that TCP is hoping to have all the tons delivered – or at least on a vessel – by the end of the month. Pakistan found itself short of urea for the current Rabi season because of the diversion of natural gas away from the domestic urea producers in Spring 2010.
For the month of January industry sources were speculating how Pakistan would pay for a tender. Many in the industry figured the Saudis would eventually back down and providesome form of financial assistance in the end. The final break in that idea, however, came as Sabic refused to accommodate Pakistan’s desire to have the whole 225,000 mt delivered by March 1.
One source with a close tie to the Arab Gulf producer said the Sabic order book is already full of contract orders. He added that diverting 225,000 mt in one month could cause serious problems for the contracted buyers. Sources say a cargo or two could have been delayed a few weeks to accommodate Pakistan by arranging swap deals or renegotiating the contracted delivery times.
Once it was clear there would be no financial help from the Saudis, industry sources began to speculate how Pakistan would pay for the order. Some traders had commented as late as the middle of January that the country might have to think of buying alternative and cheaper nitrogen-based inputs.
The government responded to the issue of funding in the local media. An official of TCP told the media that the company has a line of credit with Pakistani banks of more than Rs110 billion – about US$1.3 billion. He estimated the company would need about Rs8 billion (US$93.5 million) for the deal, for a delivered price of $415.55/mt. That price might be just about right, said some Asian traders.
Arab Gulf granular urea is still pegged in the upper $390s/mt FOB. The Yuzhnyy price has apparently not yet recovered from its January slip, say sources. Even with prices in the $360s/mt FOB, sources say the short delivery date and rising freight rates could rule out tons from the Black Sea.
Chinese tons are also out. Sources say there are not enough tons left in the bonded warehouse to satisfy the demand in Pakistan.
Industry sources expect to see strong offers in the tender.
One trader suggested that Sabic might relent and offer a slight discount on one or two cargoes in the end.
Even if the finances are settled, sources say TCP could face a major political minefield once the tender offers are opened.
The tender allows for offers from “world-wide sources.” Some Asian sources say without a doubt, TCP will not accept offers that include Iranian material. One trader noted that since Pakistan depends on a number of U.S. aid programs to stay afloat, the government might be inclined to honor the U.S.-backed embargo of Iran. He added that the political and religious differences with Iran could also mean rejection of Iranian urea offers.
Without Iranian tons, sources say, TCP will be hard pressed to line up the material it needs in the short timeframe it requires.
And there was always the issue of payment. Sources say if Pakistan agreed to take Iranian product, payment could be handled through any number of currency houses in the region.
In the past, TCP has taken the lowest offer in a tender. If that tonnage did not satisfy the country’s demand, a new tender would be issued right away.
One trader noted that this time around, TCP might engage in some post-tender negotiations to nail down the whole requirement in one shot. A lot, he said, will depend on the source and the price.
Middle East: Sources report the order books remain full and production steady. No producer seems to be in a situation that would require offering tons for less than the current market.
Prills remain in the $370s/mt FOB, say sources, with most deals leaning to the upper end of the register. Granular is solidly in the upper $390s/mt FOB. One Asian trader noted that $400/mt FOB could be broken, depending on the offers made in the TCP tender that closes Feb. 7.
Black Sea: Demand from the area remains strong enough to prevent a major drop in prices following last month’s slip into the $360s/mt FOB. While nothing has been done to take the price down further, sources say buyers are reluctant to agree to prices above $370/mt FOB at this time.
Asia: Most of Asia shut down in the middle of last week for the Lunar New Year. Operations in China are expected to be down though this week. Production and port activities will slowly come back online next week.
NITROGEN SOLUTIONS
U.S. Gulf: Most sources last week said barge prices are moving up, with most putting the range at $290-$295/st FOB ($9.06-$9.22/unit FOB), and some quoting $300/stFOB later in the week.
Eastern Cornbelt: Fertilizer sources talked of firming UAN prices in early February due to tightening supplies. An Illinois source said that while UAN-32 tons could still be found at the $340/st ($10.63/unit) FOB level out of the terminal system last week, the market was starting to firm, with some suppliers touting $345-$350/st ($10.78-$10.94/unit) FOB in early February. There were reports of spring prepay offers now as high as $370/st ($11.56/unit) rail-DEL in the Wisconsin market. In the Ohio and Michigan market, sources reported UAN-28 as high as $312.20/st ($11.15/unit) FOB for prompt tons last week.
Western Cornbelt: Sources quoted firming UAN prices on reports of tightening supplies. The dealer market for UAN-32 was tagged at $335-$352/st ($10.47-$11.00/unit) FOB regional terminals last week, with the low in southern Missouri and the upper end reflecting new reference levels from some Iowa suppliers. Effective Feb. 4, Koch’s UAN postings FOB Fort Dodge, Iowa, firmed to $345/st ($10.78/unit) for UAN-32 and $301.88/st ($10.78/unit) for UAN-28.
Southern Plains: UAN was in tight supply in the region due to production problems at some plant locations. CF confirmed that its Woodward, Okla., plant went down the previous week, and the facility’s restart was slowed by the Feb. 1-2 storm. Some other producers were reportedly running – but not pricing – product last week.
“There are a bunch of tons that have been removed from the supply chain,” said one UAN contact. “On top of that, a couple manufacturers are running behind schedule on delivery already. From what I hear, the retail marketplace isn’t oversupplied by any means, and a strong topdress demand could easily put pressure on supply.”
The UAN-32 market was pegged at $330-$350/st ($10.31-$10.94/unit) FOB, with the low out of spot production points. Kansas sources put the dealer market firmly at the $340/st ($10.63/unit) FOB level or higher out of shipping points in
that state. Effective Feb. 4, Koch’s Enid, Okla., UAN postings
moved to $350/st ($10.94/unit) for UAN-32 and $306.25/st
($10.94/unit) for UAN-28.
South Central: UAN-32 pricing was up slightly from last report, with reports of tight supplies at some locations. Sources pegged the terminal market at $320-$335/st ($10.00-$10.47/unit) FOB in the region, with the upper end quoted in the northern Arkansas market. The low end was quoted FOB Memphis for prompt tons.
Southeast: Southeast sources quoted the UAN-30 market in the $280-$290/st ($9.33-$9.66/unit) range FOB port terminals, up slightly from last report, with most touting the lower end of that range as the common number for any actual business. The UAN vessel market was up as well, with indications for new business reported in the $320-$325/mt CFR range.
AMMONIUM NITRATE
U.S. Gulf: The most recent business continues to be called $330/st FOB, with quotes for forward product in the mid-$330s/st FOB.
Western Cornbelt: Ammonium nitrate was steady at $365-$385/st FOB in the region, with the low in Missouri and the upper end in the Iowa market.
Southern Plains: Ammonium nitrate was pegged in the $350-$360/st range FOB in the Tulsa, Okla., market last week.
South Central: Ammonium nitrate was steady at $350/st FOB regional terminals to the dealer.
Southeast: The Tampa ammonium nitrate market remained at the $350/st FOB level for the last done business, but sources said higher replacement costs should firm that market to the $360-$370/st FOB range for new business.
AMMONIUM SULFATE
Eastern Cornbelt: Granular ammonium sulfate remained in the $325-$340/st FOB range for any available tons. One supplier was referenced at $309/st rail-DEL in the Midwest for granular ammonium sulfate, but was not taking new orders until a backlog of existing orders could be filled.
Western Cornbelt: Sources quoted the dealer market for granular ammonium sulfate at $330-$340/st FOB for limited tons in the Western Cornbelt region.
Southern Plains: Effective Jan. 17, American Plant Food Corp.’s (APF) granular ammonium sulfate postings at Texas shipping points firmed to $260/st FOB Freeport, $270/st FOB Galena Park, $285/st FOB Fort Worth, and $300/st FOB Littlefield. APF’s coarse grade ammonium sulfate postings moved to $250/st FOB Freeport, $260/st FOB Galena Park, $275/st FOB Fort Worth, and $290/st FOB Littlefield, while standard grade firmed to $245/st FOB Freeport and $285/st FOB Littlefield. The company’s N-Pac Compacted posting moved on Jan. 17 to $275/st FOB Galena Park.
APF announced another increase on Feb. 2, moving its granular ammonium sulfate postings up an additional $15/st to $275/st FOB Freeport, $285/st FOB Galena Park, $300/st FOB Fort Worth, and $315/st FOB Littlefield. APF’s coarse grade postings moved on Feb. 3 to $265/st FOB Freeport, $275/st FOB Galena Park, $290/st FOB Fort Worth, and $305/st FOB Littlefield, while standard grade firmed to $260/st FOB Freeport and $300/st FOB Littlefield. The company’s N-Pac Compacted posting moved on Feb. 3 to $290/st FOB Galena Park.
Martin Resources also raised its ammonium sulfate postings FOB Plainview, Texas, on Feb. 2 to $315/st for granular, $305/st for coarse, and $300/st for standard grade.
South Central: Granular ammonium sulfate pricing was up from last report. Sources tagged the market at $295-$315/st FOB, with the low at Memphis and the upper end in Arkansas to the dealer. Arkansas sources also talked of delivered barge tons at the $295/st level, based on a $285/st FOB NOLA value for Texas product.
APF’s reference price for granular ammonium sulfate firmed on Feb. 2 to $305/st FOB Mermentau, La., up $15/st from the Jan. 17 posting.
Southeast: Granular ammonium sulfate remained at $265/st FOB Augusta, Ga., and $280/st DEL in the Southeast region from DSM Chemicals, with standard grade referenced at $192/st FOB Augusta and $210/st DEL. DSM’s rail-delivered granular ammonium sulfate price in the Northeast region had reportedly firmed to $310/st.
PHOSPHATES
Central Florida: With a massive blizzard stretching across much of the country last week, applying fertilizer was not a priority – or even a possibility. Not surprisingly, no new prompt phosphate sales were found out of Central Florida.
Although some in the industry were becoming a little concerned at the lack of activity in recent weeks, others point out that the situation was basically normal for this time of year. Most expect a robust spring season.
The Central Florida DAP price range was unchanged from the previous week at $540-$550/st FOB. Smaller lots from traders could cost $5-$10/st FOB more. CF’s price was $540/st FOB. Mosaic’s price was $550/st FOB. MAP was listed at a premium of $10/st FOB in comparison to DAP in Central Florida. PCS Sales was making sales at comparable prices to the market. Agrifos’ price for truck sales was $585/st FOB for DAP and $595/st FOB for MAP, but was $5/st FOB less by rail. The company has said it will still be able to make sales until at least the end of March.
U.S. Gulf: Much of the Midwest and the Northeast were locked in a hard winter storm of heavy snowfall, ice, and bitter cold last week, which took a toll on sales of phosphate. Unable to reach their offices, many in the industry were stuck at home and were telecommuting as much as possible.
The middle of winter is never a great time to sell phosphate, but prices for urea were on the upswing last week, and sources said it was likely that phosphate would be dragged along.
TFI’s meeting in Scottsdale will kick off Feb. 6, and many said they thought it would inspire buys and sales among those attending. During the past several weeks phosphate prices have been drifting south, but not as much as some believed would have happened. Still, transactions did occur in the NOLA DAP/MAP market last week, just slightly south of the previous week’s range.
Orders for summer delivery were already coming in last week, while spring deliveries had not really even started. Most believe dealers had already purchased enough phosphate to get started for the spring and would wait until farmers began their buying before reordering. In large part that was due to the beating dealers took a couple of years ago, when they were left holding the bag when prices dropped from around $1,200/st FOB to less than half that.
The influx of imported phosphate into the market was a concern for some, who wondered how long it would take to be absorbed into the system. Russian DAP has been criticized by a few in the industry because they feared the color and the larger granulation would hurt their sales, but the product has been generally accepted by most and the quality was actually better than domestic DAP, according to some sources. A rumor last week held that a NOLA DAP barge of Russian product had been sold well below the current index, but that could not be confirmed, and major sellers of Russian DAP have been charging the same price as domestic DAP.
Warehouse prices were essentially unchanged last week in the $580-$600/st FOB range, with upriver terminals obtaining the highest prices.
Corn for December was up slightly from the previous week’s $5.89/bushel to $5.9025/bushel last week, but corn for December 2012 moved down from $5.41/bushel to $5.33/bushel. Soybeans for November were stronger at $13.65/bushel, compared to $13.23/bushel the previous week and $12.4225/bushel for November 2012. Wheat for July was also up from $9.61/bushel to $9.6825/bushel, and July 2012 was up $9.01/bushel.
Based on actual sales, the NOLA DAP barge price range last week was down at $542-$547/st FOB from $548-$550/st FOB a week earlier. MAP was bringing a premium of $15-$20/st FOB for NOLA barges.
Eastern Cornbelt: DAP was steady at $590-$610/st FOB in the region, with MAP $10-$20/st higher, where available. 10-34-0 continued to be quoted in the $625-$640/st FOB range in the region for any available tons, which were very tight.
Western Cornbelt: DAP pricing remained at $585-$600/st FOB regional warehouses, with the low in southern Missouri and the upper end in the Iowa market to the dealer. MAP was quoted at $610-$635/st FOB, with the low in Missouri on a spot basis. Iowa sources quoted the MAP market commonly in the $620-$635/st FOB range in early February, with the low out of river locations and the upper end at inland warehouses.
10-34-0 continued to be quoted in the $625-$640/st FOB range in the region for any available tons, which were scarce.
Simplot’s phosphoric acid postings firmed $1.20/unit on Feb. 1 to $12.60/unit DEL for both SPA and MGA in its Midwest sales area. Agrium also announced a phos acid pricing increase for Feb. 1, moving to $1,260/st rail-DEL for both SPA and MGA in Iowa, Minnesota, Nebraska, Wyoming, and the Dakotas.
Southern Plains: Kansas sources said some dry phosphate tons were being applied to row crop ground before the storm settled in. DAP was quoted at $580-$585/st FOB the Tulsa market, down slightly from last report, with MAP tagged at $600-$610/st FOB for limited tons.
By most accounts, 10-34-0 was simply unavailable in the region in early February. “It’s out. There is no product,” said one source. Added another, “If the dealer is expecting (10-34-0) to be available by making a phone call they’re in for a surprise.” The only pricing quote came from one Kansas contact, who put the dealer market at a solid $625/st FOB “if it can be found.”
Agrium announced a phos acid pricing increase for Feb. 1, moving up $10/st to $1,260/st rail-DEL for both SPA and MGA in Colorado, Kansas, New Mexico, Oklahoma, and Texas.
South Central: DAP was quoted at $585-$590/st FOB regional warehouses to the dealer. No current spot quotes were available for MAP in the South Central region. The TSP warehouse market remained at $495-$505/st FOB in the region last week.
U.S. Export: PhosChem made a sale of 15,000 mt into Australia last week at the current range of $600/mt FOB. Quantum revealed it had made a sale of 10,000 mt of TSP into Uruguay at about $510/mt a couple of weeks earlier. In addition, it was believed KeyTrade made a sale into South America below the range, but that could not be confirmed.
India and PhosChem had still not reached an agreement on a new supply agreement, but that could come before the end of the month. A source said other international buyers were waiting and watching before taking the plunge.
A couple of sources said buyers in Central and South America were getting ready to make a move. Argentina was said to be in the market for MAP.
Some of the Russian phosphate being imported into the U.S. could be re-exported, if the export market improves and the domestic market declines significantly.
Tunisia, which produces about 100,000 mt a month, had shut down its processing plants late last week due to a lack of rock after street demonstrators toppled the government; however, a lack of information made it difficult to confirm. If true, it would take about a month to completely restart and another month to build inventories, which could help export prices.
The export DAP price range was unchanged last week at a flat $600/mt FOB.
Pakistan: Fauji Fertilizer Bin Qasim Ltd. CFO Syed Amir Ahsan estimates the country will need to import about 800,000 mt of DAP to ensure the availability of 1.5 million mt of DAP during 2011, showing a growth of 10 percent over 2010 in terms of availability. DAP consumption is expected at 1.4 million mt in 2011, a 5 percent increase over 2010. Pakistan consumed about 1.328 million mt of DAP in 2010 against 1.784 million mt in 2009, reflecting a decline of 26 percent. The country imported 632,000 mt of DAP in 2010 against 981,000 mt in 2009, showing a fall of 36 percent. Ahsan said DAP consumption data in the country showed negative growth of 0.6 percent during the last five years due to the increase in the price of DAP, as well as less demand. The DAP local price in Pakistan increased to Rs.3,000/ in December 2010 from Rs.2,210 in January 2010.
POTASH
U.S. Gulf: Product continued to be called $475-$485/st FOB, with the range depending on quality issues, according to sources.
Eastern Cornbelt: Potash was steady at $505-$515/st FOB regional warehouses at mid-month.
Western Cornbelt: Potash was tagged at $505-$515/st FOB regional warehouses.
Southern Plains: Sources continued to quote the potash market in the $505-$515/st range FOB regional warehouses, with most sources touting the bottom of that range to the dealer. Potash pricing FOB Carlsbad, N.M., was steady at $480/st for 60 percent standard, $482/st for 62 percent standard, $485/st for 60 percent granular and 62 percent fine standard, and $493/st for 62 percent granular.
South Central: The potash market was unchanged at $495-$505/st FOB most regional warehouses.
Southeast: Rail-delivered potash remained in the $525-$535/st range last week. One Carolina source said movement to the field should commence in several weeks.
Germany: K+S reported that production at its Sigmundstall potash plant fully resumed Feb. 1. During assembly work in the extraction shaft by an outside contractor, parts of the shaft conveyor equipment were damaged during the Christmas and New Year break. Due to the plant interruption of about four weeks, there was a decline in the level of production by about 70,000 mt of potash and magnesium products (equivalent to about one percent of the annual sales volume of the Potash and Magnesium Products business segment anticipated for 2011). The resulting damage to property and financial losses were claimed from the assembly company.
SULFUR
Tampa: Last week, PotashCorp settled prices for first quarter sulfur at $25/lt up from the previous quarter. The previous week Mosaic settled at the same increase, which took the delivered price for molten sulfur at Tampa to $185/lt from $160/lt. Green Markets does not adjust the indexed price for sulfur until both companies have settled their contracts, so the new indexed price is for the first quarter.
The horrid weather that brought much of the country to a halt hurt the logistics for moving sulfur by rail, truck, and vessel. Some also said it might impact refinery operations in parts of the Midwest, although that was less clear. That may not be felt for a couple of weeks.
However, large phosphate producers have stockpiled sufficient supplies to avoid interrupting their processing operations.
Refinery capacity rates increased last week to 84.5 from 81.8 percent the previous week, according to the U.S. DOE. The use of more sweet crude oil has helped reduce available sulfur supplies.
Vancouver: The market was stronger in China, which was paying $190-$200/mt for sulfur.
A strike at Vancouver could shut operations down, if the unions approve the move. So far, one of the five unions had voted for a strike mandate but had not issued a 72-hour notice, as required. The remaining four unions had not voted as of late last week. A 21-day “cooling-off period” was scheduled to end on Feb. 6.
MARKET NOTES
Australia: Incitec Pivot Ltd. (IPL) has reported impacts from Cyclone Yasi, while Orica Ltd. points to lost earnings due to recent flooding.
IPL said fertilizer production and distribution in North Queensland were impacted. IPL operations in that area include the Phosphate Hill fertilizer plant, Mt. Isa acid plant, fertilizer distribution centers in Cairns, Townsville, and Mackay, and export fertilizer port operations at Townsville.
As of Feb. 3, IPL said Phosphate Hill and Mt. Isa had been operating at reduced rates over the past two days and on Feb. 3 temporarily suspended production. IPL expects it will return to production early the week of Feb. 7, assuming a return to normal conditions and the availability of employees. IPL estimates Phosphate Hill will lose five days of production.
All operations on the coast at Cairns, Townsville, and Mackay were suspended Feb. 1. IPL said assuming minimal damage to port facilities and no loss of access to rail, distribution and port operations can ramp up quickly.
IPL also said the Dyno Nobel Asia Pacific explosives business could be impacted as a result of any disruption to mining activities in Central Queensland resulting from the rain from Yasi.
Orica Ltd. said Feb. 3 that as a result of recent flooding in Queensland, earnings before interest and tax are estimated to have been adversely impacted by between A$20-$30 million for the four months ending Jan. 31, 2011. However, actual damage to company assets and inventories has been relatively minor.
Subject to further adverse weather, Orica maintains previous earnings guidance, which is for net profit after tax to be higher in 2011 than in 2010.