AMMONIA
U.S. Gulf/Tampa: While some said it was too early last week to even talk about Tampa ammonia prices for March, others were not so reluctant, wondering if the ammonia market still has enough steam for another increase on top of the one seen for February. Last month some sellers were very bullish, saying the market could have gone higher to $525-$550/mt, instead of $515/mt for February ?Çô which was still up $40/mt over January.
December ammonia imports were up 59 percent, according to the U.S. Department of Commerce, to 674,420 st from the year-ago 423,840 st. July-December imports were up 24 percent, to 3.9 million st from 3.14 million st.
Eastern Cornbelt: Anhydrous ammonia pricing remained at $675-$680/st FOB Illinois terminals, with the upper end of the range pegged at the $690/st FOB level in Indiana.
Western Cornbelt: The anhydrous ammonia market remained at $630-$670/st FOB regional terminals, depending on location and time of delivery.
There were no field activities reported in the region in mid-February, but sources said fertilizer tons were moving to storage in advance of the spring planting season. “I think we’re setting up for the same mess we had last fall,” said one contact, who recalled supply outages during the heavy fall application season, but also a continued reluctance on the part of farmers and dealers to position tons. “We’re all doing business different than we were two or three years ago. There was a lot done last fall, but there’s a lot to do this spring, too.”
Other contacts, by contrast, said buying interest had heated up in recent weeks, not only for the spring but also for summer and fall tons.
Northern Plains: North Dakota sources quoted delivered ammonia in the $715-$720/st range for limited tons, with postings as high as $760/st DEL from some suppliers. Out of regional terminals, the ammonia market was quoted in the $670-$680/st FOB range, depending on location and time of delivery.
Middle East: Without any spot sales to firmly place the current market, sources say the public prices remain pretty stable in the mid-$450s/mt FOB.
One producer noted that earlier deals at $450/mt FOB are gone, but nothing new has happened to move up the price. An Asian trader agreed with this assessment.
The price range has tightened. Sources say the range is now $455-$458/mt FOB.
The Arab producers continue to move out material at a brisk pace. None seem to be concerned about a softer market.
Demand from Asia remains a strong pulling force on the supplies.
Normally the Arab producers would also count on steady buying from India. Lately, however, India has been taking significant quantities of tons from Iran.
Nailing down exactly how many tons are flowing from Iran to India is difficult, said one trader. He did point out however, that Iranian material is not being pushed to other markets as aggressively as in the past.
One producer representative noted that last year he would often run up against Iranian agents trying to sell ammonia to Taiwan and South Korea. So far this year, he said, he has not seen any evidence that Iranian tons are making significant inroads in the Asian market.
A trader commented that the Arab producers would have pushed the prices higher if it wasn’t for the Iranian tons, but achieving prices in the mid-$450s/mt FOB is nothing to sneer at.
For now, sources are calling the market in the region balanced, with a slight nod to more demand than supply.
UREA
U.S. Gulf: Players last week say the market topped out as high as $383/st, but soon retreated. By Thursday, sources said $373/st FOB was done. The drop was attributed to a