AMMONIA
U.S. Gulf/Tampa: March Tampa business was a late bloomer last week but it finally came in early last week at $545/mt DEL, up $30/mt from February. Some sellers thought it could have gone higher, but they usually do.
The really late bloomer was NOLA ammonia barges which have not literally changed in ages. Just as Green Markets was ready to slap a price into the long-dormant $420/st category, came word that a new, spot barge transaction had actually occurred. The new number is $524/st FOB to an industrial end user.
Eastern Cornbelt: Anhydrous ammonia was steady at $670-$690/st FOB regional terminals, depending on location and time of delivery. Sources said the low end was doable for fall prepay tons on a spot basis in the Illinois market, while the upper end reflected the spot market out of some Indiana terminals.
Western Cornbelt: The anhydrous ammonia market was quoted at $635-$660/st FOB in the region, depending on location and time of delivery. The low end was quoted in the Nebraska market for prompt pull, with fall prepay tagged at $645/st FOB. In Iowa, sources tagged spring ammonia at $640-$650/st FOB, with fall prepay reportedly being offered in the $655-$660/st FOB range.
One Iowa contact reported that soil temperatures in his trade area had climbed to 31 degrees at the four-inch level by early March. “If we do not receive any more measurable moisture, we could see an earlier-than-normal start to the NH3 application season,” he said.
California: Anhydrous ammonia was steady at $660/st truck-DEL in California, although sources said a price increase in early March was possible. Aqua ammonia was unchanged as well at $177/st FOB from Calamco.
Pacific Northwest: Washington sources pegged the anhydrous ammonia market in the $675-$720/st DEL range, with the low for railed tons and the upper end for truck-delivered material.
Western Canada:Anhydrous ammonia remained at $817-$825/mt DEL in Manitoba, $825-$834/mt DEL in Saskatchewan, and $834-$861/mt DEL in Alberta. Dealer postings were in the $827-$871/mt DEL range in the region.
Middle East: The increase in Tampa is as much a reflection of the unrest in the area as it is demand in the U.S., one Asian trader noted.
The reduced supplies from North Africa because of the unrest in Libya and nervousness over demonstrations in Oman have led some Asian sources to speculate that prices will continue to rise.
Arab producers in the Gulf are now offering tons at $480/mt FOB but no one could point to business done at that level yet.
The last done business that could publically be named put the regional price just under $460/mt FOB. Sources say nothing has been done to confirm a price higher than $460/mt FOB as the week closed.
The bullish attitude, however, comes from the lack of Libyan material.
One trader said the equation was very easy to figure out. Europe needs ammonia and it can no longer get it from Libya, one of its main suppliers. The European buyers will then go to the Arab Gulf and the Black Sea to get what they need.
In the Gulf, the buyers are again limited because they cannot buy Iranian tons, so that limits them to the Arab producers.
The Arab producers all claim full order books for their contracts and other long-term buyers. One source noted that East Asia has remained a strong and steady customer.
Then add to the already tight supplies in the region buyers’ reluctance to commit to buying a cargo too far in advance.
While demonstrations in Oman and other Arab Gulf countries have not yet affected ammonia or urea production or shipping, sources say some buyers are just nervous enough