USDA drops corn production
USDA is forecasting a 10.7 billion bushels corn crop in the U.S. this year, according to the latest Crop Production and World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) reports, released on Oct. 11. The updated corn projection is down slightly from the September forecast and down 13 percent from 2011, and represents the lowest production in the U.S. since 2006.
The average U.S. corn yield was lowered to 122 bushels/acre, down 0.8 bushel from September and 25.2 bushels below the 2011 average. USDA said this yield, if realized, will be the lowest average corn yield in the country since 1995. Corn area harvested for grain is forecast at 87.7 million acres, up less than 1 percent from the September forecast and up 4 percent from 2011. Total planted area was estimated at 96.6 million acres.
USDA noted that only 25 percent of the U.S. corn crop was rated in good or excellent condition as of Sept. 30. Half of crop fell in the poor or very poor categories by that date, with drought taking a heavy toll on crop quality. USDA said yield data as of Oct. 1 indicates the lowest number of ears per acre since 2005 in Iowa, Illinois, Indiana, Kansas, Minnesota, Missouri, Nebraska, Ohio, South Dakota, and Wisconsin.
Corn ending stocks for 2012/13 are projected 114 million bushels lower at 619 million. The season-average farm price for corn was also lowered 10 cents on both ends of the range, to $7.10-$8.50 per bushel based on early season cash and future prices and prices available for forward delivery through early 2013.
Although corn has taken a hit, USDA said the U.S. soybean crop benefited from September rains. Soybean production is forecast at 2.86 billion bushels, up 9 percent from September based on higher harvested area and yield, but down 8 percent from last year. Based on Oct. 1 conditions, soybean yields are expected to average 37.8 bushels/acre, up 2.5 bushels from last month but down 4.1 bushels from last year.
Soybean area for harvest in the U.S. is forecast at 75.7 million acres, up 1 percent from September, up 3 percent from last year, and the third largest crop on record if realized. Planted area was estimated at 77.2 million acres. Soybean ending stocks are projected at 130 million bushels, up 15 million from last month. The U.S. season-average soybean price range for 2012/13 is projected at $14.25-$16.25 per bushel, down $0.75 on both ends of the range.
All cotton production in the U.S. is forecast at 17.3 million 480-pound bales, up 1 percent from last month due to increases in the Mississippi Delta states, and up 11 percent from last year. Cotton yields are expected to average 795 pounds/acre, up 5 pounds/acre from last year.
The forecast range for the 2012/13 marketing year average price received by cotton producers is 62-74 cents per pound, down 4 cents on the upper end of the range due to lower prices in recent months.
U.S. rice production for 2012/13 is forecast at 198.9 million cwt, up 2.5 million from last month, with the increase attributed entirely to a record yield expectation of 7,428 pounds/acre, up 94 pounds/acre from last month. Yields were raised in all states but Missouri, with record yields forecast for Arkansas, Louisiana, and Texas. The all rice season-average farm price is forecast at $14.20-$15.20 per cwt, up 50 cents on each end of the range.
USDA also noted some increases in U.S. tobacco and sugar beet production. Tobacco production for 2012 is forecast at 780 million pounds, up 30 percent from 2011, with harvested area forecast at 338,080 acres, up 4 percent from last year. The average tobacco yield for 2012 is forecast at 2.308 pounds/acre, up 467 pounds/acre from 2011.
Sugar beet production for 2012 is forecast at 35.6 million tons, up 23 percent from last year, and yields are expected to average 29.3 tons/acre, up 5.5 tons/acre from last year. USDA said this will be a record