AMMONIA
U.S. Gulf/Tampa: No new trades were reported last week in the Tampa or NOLA markets; however, that did not keep people from speculating. One suggested that higher numbers might be on the way for both Tampa and NOLA. Sources have added that NOLA might actually get more action as idled production comes up at Geismar and Beaumont. However, both of those are going to take some time.
Supplies to Tampa might be a tad crimped due to outages brought on by tighter gas supplies in Trinidad. Gas to all ammonia producers was cut in mid-February due to pipeline maintenance, according to sources. It is expected to resume by mid-March. PotashCorp’s number one and two ammonia plants were operating at 85 percent capacity as a result, while three and four and the urea plant were not impacted.
U.S. January ammonia imports were up 3 percent, according to the U.S. Department of Commerce, to 606,293 st from the year-ago 588,004 st. June-January imports were up 21 percent, to 4.5 million st from 3.73 million st.
Eastern Cornbelt: Anhydrous ammonia was unchanged at $670-$690/st FOB regional terminals, depending on location and time of delivery, with the low quoted in Illinois and the upper end in the Indiana market. One source pegged fall prepay offers in the $670-$685/st FOB range out of Illinois terminals last week.
Western Cornbelt: The anhydrous ammonia market remained at $635-$650/st FOB regional terminals for prompt tons, with reports of fall prepay being offered in the $645-$660/st FOB range in the Western Cornbelt, depending on location.
Northern Plains: Delivered ammonia prices in the North Dakota market covered a wide range from $715-$760/st, depending on supplier. Minnesota sources pegged spring ammonia tons out of regional terminals at the $660/st FOB mark last week.
Great Lakes: The ammonia market was quoted at $685-$710/st FOB in the region, with the low reported by Wisconsin sources. Michigan dealers tagged the prompt ammonia market in the $700-$710/st FOB range last week. One source said fall prepay offers in roughly the same range were also on the table from some suppliers.
California: Effective March 9, Calamco’s postings in the California market firmed to $690/st truck-DEL for anhydrous ammonia and $185/st FOB for aqua ammonia. Those levels reflect a $30/st increase from the previous level for anhydrous, and an $8/st increase for aqua ammonia.
Middle East: Sources report the base ammonia price in the area is now easily $460/mt FOB.
Arab producers are asking $480/mt FOB, but not yet getting that level. One Asian trader noted, however, that the producers should be getting the price they want soon.
Demand for ammonia remains strong from Asia through Europe and into North America.
Sources use a recent deal to Gresik in Indonesia by Transammonia to estimate the netback to the Arab Gulf at $470-$475/mt FOB. The material may be actually coming from Egypt, which could mean a lower netback but not below the $460/mt FOB level.
The price is having a hard time growing as fast as the Arab producers would like, largely because of the steady presence of Iranian tons.
Sources report that another sale to Gresik was concluded late last week via Swiss Singapore from Iran. At least one Turkish buyer also took Iranian tons.
To compensate for currency exchange issues, the Iranian ammonia is often priced lower than the material from the Arab producers.
Indian buyers are using the Iranian price as the basis for any deals coming out of the Arab Gulf. This move is adding to the stalemate in pricing.
Sources say $460-$470/mt FOB is the best guess for the price from the area.