CF and Agrium squabble over advisory report, antitrust concerns, as tender deadline looms

Agrium Inc. and CF Industries Holdings Inc. intensified their rhetoric again last week as Agrium’s June 22 deadline for CF shareholders to tender their shares neared. Agrium also ran an ad in The Wall Street Journal June 18, addressing CF stockholders and telling them in bold type that time is running out, that it was their last chance to send a message to the CF board, and that RiskMetrics recommends CF stockholders tender their shares, and tender today – the offer expires June 22. Agrium has said it will walk away from the deal if a significant majority of stockholders do not tender.

As for RiskMetrics Group, an independent proxy voting and corporate governance advisory firm, the squabbling over this issue began June 16, with Agrium saying that RiskMetrics recommended that CF stockholders tender their shares into Agrium’s exchange offer of $40.00 in cash plus one Agrium share per CF share. Based on Agrium’s closing stock price on June 15, 2009, the offer has a current value of $88.20 per CF share and represents a premium of 59 percent to CF’s closing price on Feb. 24, 2009, the day before Agrium announced its initial proposal, and 74 percent to the 30-day volume weighted average price through that date.

“We are pleased that RiskMetrics has recommended that CF stockholders tender their shares into Agrium’s compelling offer,” said Agrium President and CEO Mike Wilson. “RiskMetrics clearly concurs that Agrium’s offer provides a significant premium to CF’s standalone stock price, is in-line with precedent deal valuations and provides CF stockholders with the attractive opportunity to ‘participate in any cycle upside from the higher base provided by the offer premium.'”

Wilson concluded, “Our offer is far superior to any alternative articulated by CF, including remaining independent or paying a premium for Terra. We are prepared to execute immediately a fully financed, binding merger agreement – but CF stockholders must send an unambiguous message to CF’s board by tendering their shares into our offer. We have made our best and final offer – unless CF demonstrates new value. We will continue to press CF if we receive a compelling majority of shares tendered, but we will walk from the transaction if we do not.”

CF quickly responded saying that it remains committed to pursuing its long-term strategy, including its proposed strategic business combination with Terra Industries Inc.

“We are committed to continuing to pursue a business combination with Terra Industries, which we believe will create superior value for CF Industries stockholders and provide a significantly better growth platform than a combination with Agrium,” said Stephen Wilson, chairman, president, and CEO. “We are in the process of complying with a request for additional information from the Federal Trade Commission and are confident that we will receive regulatory clearance in the near-term.”

CF said it has heard a consistent message from its stockholders that Agrium’s offer substantially undervalues CF and that the company’s shares would be trading at least in the mid- to upper-$70’s per share absent an offer from Agrium. In a report released earlier on June 16, CF said RiskMetrics supported this view, with analyses showing unaffected trading prices of $77.49 and $73.56 per share. RiskMetrics went on to say that Agrium “should not interpret a high tender as shareholder support for its current offer.”

“In addition to the clear inadequacy of Agrium’s offer, our board continues to be concerned with a number of risks associated with a potential combination with Agrium, including those related to value and timing of any transaction as a result of the ongoing regulatory review and potential remedies that may be required,” Wilson concluded.

The RiskMetrics report offered a nod to both companies, saying that Agrium, after earlier doubts, has now won the right to “engage” or negotiate with CF. However, it said that most CF shareholders expect a $90-$100 per share price. RiskMetrics is essentially telling the CF board of directors they should now talk to Agrium but they can still “just say no,” if they do not like what they hear. RiskMetrics noted that CF’s defensive rhetoric has gone from calling Agrium’s offer “grossly inadequate” in the earlier offers to the more recent “substantially undervalues.”

“On balance, we conclude that Agrium’s current bid is compelling enough to shift the burden to the CF board to justify its ‘just say no’ defense,” said the report. “While we now believe Agrium has now earned a seat at the negotiating table and that CF should now engage Agrium, we also noted that nearly all CF shareholders to whom we spoke expressed a belief that Agrium, upon engaging CF and conducting due diligence, should sweeten the offer. Based on our conversations with these CF shareholders, it appears that a market clearing offer may lie between $90 and $100 per share.”

RiskMetrics said its survey of CF shareholders revealed a near unanimous decision that Agrium’s current bid is insufficient, with a fair number believing it is in the “ballpark,” while others seek an increase of $5-$12 per share.

RiskMetrics noted that in a Feb. 26 report, JPMorgan estimated the replacement value of CF’s fertilizer assets at $10 billion. At the time, Agrium’s offer of $3.1 billion would have only equated to 31 percent of that.

Since April, RiskMetrics believes CF shareholder sentiment has shifted in favor of engagement. It also believes Agrium has greatly expanded upon its communications with CF shareholders, providing a detailed breakdown of the basis for its bid.

RiskMetrics believes engagement is the more likely scenario, saying Agrium could sweeten the deal and there is little downside to CF as it can continue to “just say no.” Given CF’s defensive arsenal, which RiskMetrics has praised to date, it said this will be the last chance for CF shareholders to weigh in on these issues and help to ensure that CF does not turn down a fair offer from Agrium in order to enter into a less attractive transaction with Terra. RiskMetrics said there is little danger that a high tender result will encourage the CF board to roll over for Agrium, as given its defensive arsenal, Agrium must ultimately win over the CF board.

“Absent new developments, RiskMetrics also said that it is unlikely CF’s current bid for Terra will succeed, given Terra’s vociferous rejection of the offer and its strong defensive profile.”

RiskMetrics noted that there is a great deal of cross-shareholding between Agrium, CF, and Terra. Citing Thomson One data as of March 31, some 70 percent of CF and Terra shareholders overlap, 60 percent of Agrium and CF overlap, and 53 percent of Agrium and Terra overlap.

Contacted again by Green Markets on June 17, CF was sticking by its guns not to engage with Agrium. “To date, the board of directors has determined that the proposed CF Industries/Terra combination represents the best strategy to create value for holders of the combined company and that, absent a compelling offer from Agrium, our priority should be CF/TRA,” said CF Director of Public and Investor Relations Charles Nekvasil. “The board is very engaged and, as Steve Wilson has noted on numerous occasions, ‘fiercely independent.’”

Another contentious round of words developed between Agrium and CF June 18, after CF made new filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission alleging possible antitrust problems with an Agrium-CF deal. CF said that based on its ongoing discussions with U.S. and Canadian regulatory authorities and the advice of antitrust counsel, it believes there are serious antitrust issues with such a deal that could substantially delay or prevent Agrium from consummating the offer. For example, CF noted that Agrium and CF are the only two significant nitrogen manufacturers in Alberta, Canada. It said Agrium is by far the largest producer and distributor of anhydrous ammonia and urea in Alberta, with CF as its only significant rival.

CF also believes that it and Agrium are two of very few producers and distributors of ammonia and urea in Saskatchewan and Manitoba.

And unlike Terra, which only has one ammonia distribution terminal in the Corn Belt, CF said Agrium is a significant competitor with CF in the sale and distribution of direct application ammonia in the Corn Belt and Northern Plains. CF estimates that Agrium has the third largest distribution network in the Corn Belt, with many terminals located in proximity to CF terminals. In addition, CF said Agrium and CF are the only two operators of ammonia terminals in North Dakota and an isolated area of the Pacific Northwest.

As a result, CF said the Agrium transaction is likely to continue to be subject to intensive scrutiny from government antitrust authorities in both countries, and in the absence of divestitures of significant manufacturing and distribution assets, could result in antitrust litigation to block the offer. CF also noted that on May 27 Agrium withdrew its HSR Form originally filed with the Department of Justice and the FTC on March 27, and re-filed with the FTC on April 29. CF said according to publically available information, Agrium has not yet filed the new necessary HSR Act notification.

By contrast, CF said that the FTC second request for information from CF about the Terra deal (GM June 8, p. 1) was narrowly focused on the distribution of ammonia for nonagricultural use in certain limited circumstances, a business that represented less than 1 percent of CF’s 2008 total revenues. CF said it expects to promptly respond to the request and continue to work cooperatively with the FTC to resolve the remaining issues expeditiously.

Agrium said on June 18 that CF has seriously misrepresented the status and character of the antitrust review of Agrium’s proposed acquisition of CF, further supporting its concerns that CF is not acting in the best interests of its stockholders.

Agrium and its counsel have been in close communication with the relevant antitrust authorities in Canada and the U.S. and are confident that there are no material impediments to closing an Agrium/CF transaction, nor are there expected to be any material delays in closing as a result of regulatory review.

Agrium said the waiting period under relevant Canadian law expired on March 23, 2009. While Agrium and its antitrust counsel continue discussions with the Canadian Competition Bureau, Agrium’s antitrust counsel is of the view that no further Canadian competition approvals under Canadian law are required to legally close the transaction today.

Agrium said it will re-file its HSR Form with the FTC once it completes its ongoing discussions with the FTC, which the company believes can be satisfactorily concluded in short order.

PotashCorp cuts potash production by another 800,000 mt; K+S cuts production and prices

Two major potash producers last week announced further curtailments ?Çô Canada’s PotashCorp and Germany’s K+S Group, with K+S also announcing a cut in domestic prices.

PotashCorp on June 16 indicated a further reduction in 2009 potash production of 800,000 mt, bringing PotashCorp curtailments this calendar year to 4.7 million mt and total curtailments to 5.5 million mt since August 2008.

Lagging demand due to an extremely slow U.S. spring season and extended negotiations with offshore buyers are the reasons behind the shutdowns. However, with the world’s soils and supply chain nearing depletion after almost a year of deferral, it said it expects demand to return in second-half 2009 as Brazil approaches its major application season and India and China inevitably return to the market.

PotashCorp said this unprecedented period of draw-down throughout the supply chain, coupled with the expectation of lower global crop production and higher crop prices, is expected to lead to an even stronger rebound in 2010.

The PotashCorp announcement is just the latest supply news as producers negotiate with buyers in China and India. PotashCorp announced a 400,000 mt curtailment on May 20 (GM May 25) as the industry headed into the IFA Conference in Shanghai, where negotiations with the Chinese and Indians were to get underway. Just last week, PotashCorp said that this fall Canpotex, the Saskatchewan producer export organization, would discuss switching sales to China to spot from contract (GM June 15, p. 1). Initial hopes had been that negotiations might be completed by the end of June; however, those have now been pushed back into July and could lag into August (GM June 15, p. 14).

Despite the curtailments, PotashCorp President and CEO Bill Doyle has remained upbeat that exports and North American consumption will pick up in the second half (GM June 15, p. 1).

K+S on June 17 said it plans to reduce potash production in the second half of 2009 by up to 2 million mt, following a reduction of 2 million mt in the first half. Moreover, K+S said it has noted on major overseas markets that a price of US$735-$750/mt is currently unsustainable for large quantities. Instead, K+S said indications are for lower price levels. As a result, in Europe the company has implemented a price cut from E555 (US$770.69/mt) to E435 ($604.06/mt). K+S said it has already forecast a tangible fall in revenues and a significant fall in earnings for 2009, with further significant reductions expected in the current financial year. These will appear with the release of earnings Aug. 13.

K+S said European agriculture exercised great restraint in the use of potash fertilizers in the spring, and despite the stabilization of agricultural prices, the demand for fertilizers is expected to remain low in the second half. It said there is still no sign of any significant upturn in demand in Europe. Until now, K+S expected that the demand for potash and magnesium fertilizers would normalize in the second half of the year and that total sales would be just under 6 million mt of goods. However, in view of the extraordinarily weak sales, K+S has reduced its sales expectations for 2009 to 4.0 to 4.5 million mt.

Agrium reiterates stance on retail

On June 15 Agrium Inc. President and CEO Mike Wilson reasserted the company’s commitment to its retail business and emphasized its importance to Agrium’s vision for continued growth at Agrium’s recent investor day session in Baltimore, Maryland.

The investor day included a tour of a nearby Agrium retail farm center. In discussing Agrium’s strategy and outlook for the company, Wilson spoke repeatedly of retail’s importance within the company’s core strategy – “to invest across the value chain and continue to add to our stable earnings base.”

In speaking of Agrium’s ongoing efforts to acquire CF Industries, Wilson remarked that when the CF news was released, many people were concerned Agrium would abandon retail. Wilson replied “No. Understand our strategy: it’s across the value chain.” Agrium said Wilson was very clear that when Agrium seeks to grow its wholesale business, it doesn’t mean the company is abandoning its retail business. “And when we invest in retail,” he added, “it doesn’t mean we’re abandoning wholesale.”

Wilson went on to explain that Agrium will grow its retail business through acquisitions, continued enhancement of the base business, including growth in its seed business, and broader offerings of Agrium’s private label products. “We will double our retail business in the next five years,” he told the audience.

Following his presentation, Wilson fielded a question from the audience about whether it makes sense for Agrium “to give the public markets a chance to invest in a ‘pure play retail asset.'” While Wilson acknowledged that spinning off its retail business “is always an option,” Agrium said he was unequivocal that the company has no plans to divest its retail business. A Bloomberg article was published based on this response, claiming that Agrium was considering spinning off its retail business. Wilson reiterated his position, noting that the remark about looking at all options was taken out of context. “We continually evaluate all options as we strive to provide our investors with superior returns. That includes the possibility of divesting or spinning-off various segments of our business. But simply considering a possibility doesn’t mean it is likely to occur … especially when such a move would be out of line with the company’s strategy, clearly retail will continue to play a crucial role in Agrium’s vision for growth for the foreseeable future.”

As Green Markets previously reported, Agrium earlier asserted retail’s importance to Agrium, and that Wilson did not mean to indicate it was to be spun off (GM June 15, p. 14).

Industry supports existing chem security regs as Congress considers alternatives

The fertilizer, agribusiness, and chemical industries are ramping up efforts to make sure Chemical Facility Anti-Terrorism Standards (CFATS) are not expanded as Congress prepares to reauthorize the rules, which are set to expire on Sept. 30, 2009.

The original CFATS rules took effect in 2007 and establish security standards and requirements for “high risk” chemical facilities, which include many fertilizer manufacturers, agricultural retailers, and distributors. Green Markets sponsored an audio conference in October 2007 to familiarize industry participants with the new requirements (GM Oct. 29, 2007).

Now Congress is considering alternatives, including HR 2868, the Chemical Facility Anti-Terrorism Act of 2009, which would renew the CFATS requirements but also permit civil suits against chemical facilities not in compliance with the regulations, and would require companies to use inherently safer technologies (IST) if alternatives to dangerous chemicals are available.

The House Homeland Security Committee held a hearing on HR 2868 on June 16 after it was introduced by Rep. Bennie Thompson (D-Miss.), committee chairman. The committee’s mark-up on HR 2868 was originally scheduled for June 18, but was delayed due to other House votes. Mark-up on the bill was slated to resume Friday morning, June 19.

The Agricultural Retailers Association is pressing members to contact Congress to oppose HR 2868 and urge support for HR 2477, the Chemical Facility Security Authorization Act, which was introduced by Rep. Charlie Dent (R-Penn.) and simply extends authorization of the current program through Oct. 1, 2012.

“Currently, many well-funded anti-chemical activist groups are pressuring Congress to expand these rules, which would result in additional regulations and significant compliance expenses for many ARA members,” ARA warned in emails to members on June 12 and 16. “A simple reauthorization of existing regulations will prevent enactment of counter-productive provisions that will have an adverse economic impact on American agriculture and disrupt the cooperative working relationship between industry and DHS.”

ARA warned that HR 2868 would change CFATS rules to include provisions that “mandate industry to utilize ISTs, allow for citizen suits, weaken protection of sensitive security information, impose stiff monetary penalties for administrative errors, and create conflicts with other existing federal security standards.”

Martin Jeppeson, director of regulatory affairs for the California Ammonia Company (Calamco), testified for The Fertilizer Institute last week at the hearing before the House Homeland Security Committee. In his remarks, Jeppeson pressed for the maintenance of existing CFATS regulations to allow DHS to complete the first phase of implementation before altering the existing program.

Jeppeson noted that much of the fertilizer supply chain was regulated in 2002 with the passage of the Maritime Transportation Security Act, and highlighted the industry’s support of the Secure Handling of Ammonium Nitrate Act in 2008. “Our facilities can be protected without implicitly or explicitly discouraging the use of our products in legislative text,” he said.

Jeppeson told the committee that the requirement to assess the use of ISTs for all regulated facilities, including manufacturers, wholesale distributors, and retailers, as proposed in the draft legislation, could have a crippling impact on American agriculture. He said such a mandate could jeopardize the availability of lower-cost and more efficient sources of fertilizer such as anhydrous ammonia and ammonium nitrate. “The options for an agricultural retail operation under IST provisions are to switch to a ‘safer’ product or reduce the quantity on-site – both options potentially remove several regulated products from the farmer’s agronomic tool box,” he said.

Jeppeson said Calamco is one of only two ammonia terminals in the state of California and handles approximately 80 percent of all of the ammonia used in the state. Under the proposed legislation, he said, if urea is encouraged as a safer alternative to anhydrous ammonia, the cost could be devastating to the nation’s food supply.

“The additional cost for a typical 1,000 acre corn farm of utilizing urea instead of anhydrous ammonia, given the current cost and nitrogen content of each product, would exceed $15,000,” he said. “However, this does not provide an accurate and fully comprehensive picture as this cost increase would only hold true if there was ample additional urea available at today’s prices. The United States, however, is already the world’s largest importer of nitrogen fertilizer and the second largest importer of urea, accounting for a full 17 percent of urea traded in the world. If the United States had to turn to the world market to import an additional 7,576,066 tons of urea to replace the nitrogen in anhydrous ammonia – a 116 percent increase from our level of imports in the latest fiscal year 07/08 – it would drive the world price of urea sky high.”

Jeppeson stressed that TFI and its member companies support DHS in its efforts to implement the existing CFATS regulations. “What is important to recognize and analyze, however, is the impact of changes to the CFATS regulation on not just fertilizer manufacturers, but all aspects of the fertilizer supply chain and still, potentially, our farmer customers,” he concluded.

The American Chemical Council also added its voice to the debate last week. “While we share the goal of establishing permanent chemical security regulations, we are concerned several provisions in the legislation as introduced could undermine the important work that is already underway,” said Marty Durbin, ACC’s vice president of federal affairs, in a June 16 statement. “While we have strong views on these issues, we appreciate the willingness of both the House Homeland Security and the Energy & Commerce Committee to seek our input and consider our viewpoint. We have had constructive discussions, and remain hopeful that our concerns can be addressed as the legislative process progresses.”

Other industry advocates were taking a more confrontational approach, however, and were using Tea Party tactics to attack HR 2868. The Agribusiness Freedom Foundation, a website billing itself as the “freedom watchdog for American agriculture,” charges that the bill “proposes to mandate the government to take a large measure of control over products and processes in the chemical industry, much like it has taken over leadership, compensation and control functions at some banks, insurance and auto companies.”

EPA will not veto PCS phosphate mine permit

Aurora, N.C.-The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency has declared that it will not seek further review of an Army Corps permit allowing expansion of PCS Phosphate’s mining operations in Beaufort County, N.C. “After more than eight years in this permitting process, we are obviously pleased to have the 404 wetlands permit in-hand,” said Steve Beckel, general manager of the PCS Phosphate Aurora facility. “Yesterday’s decision by the EPA demonstrates the company’s commitment to protecting the environment for current and future generations.” The final step in this 8+ year permitting process will be receiving the necessary state mining permits and certifications from the N.C. Department of Environment and Natural Resources. Once those permits are received, the company will have the necessary authorizations to extend its mining operations in Aurora until 2045. “We would like to thank our employees, elected officials at all levels, as well as the community at-large, for their support throughout this permitting process,” added Beckel. Not everyone was happy with the decision. “After elevating the permit to the national level in a rare move, EPA could have vetoed the destruction of 1,200 acres of the most critical wetlands and nurseries while still allowing continued mining by the company for 29 years,” said the Southern Environmental Law Center. SELC and other groups are likely to file a lawsuit over the permit.

Chinese company eyes big stake in Congo project

Toronto-MagIndustries Corp. reports that a large, unnamed Chinese-based multi-national company intends to subscribe for 400 million MagIndustries shares at a price of C$.70. Mag says it has agreed to negotiate exclusively with the company until the earlier of July 31, 2009, or the date definitive documentation is entered into. In addition, Mag says the memorandum of understanding includes that the definitive documentation will contain a right for the subscriber to participate pro rata in any future financings completed by the company, and to appoint a majority of directors to the company’s board. The share subscription is also conditional on the subscriber arranging substantially all of the debt financing required for the completion of Phase I of the company’s Kouilou potash project in the Republic of Congo as an alternative to debt financing that might be available to the company from other sources. Mag said the company would be in a fully-funded position with respect to the Project if the transaction contemplated by the MOU is completed. Upon conclusion of the investment, the Chinese company would hold approximately 52.7 percent of the company’s common shares outstanding. The latest technical report for the project indicates proven and probable reserves of 33.2 million mt of potash, which can support a reserve life of more than 54 years at a projected production rate of 600,000 mt/y. Phase 1 capital expenses are estimated at US$835 million. Estimated operating expenses are now $124 per mt of K60 resulting from increased expectations for higher natural gas costs. Potash price assumptions for 2012 are $649/mt, up from $464/mt net realized price KCl (based on current third-party potash price forecasts). Mag said the report authors project an internal rate of return of 23 percent, with the net present value estimated at US$914 million using a discount rate of 12 percent. Assuming total project costs of US$1.2 billion, pay back is achieved in approximately five years, assuming cumulative cash flows from operations for the period 2012 to 2016.

Natural gas leak blamed for ConAgra blast

Garner, N.C.-ATF investigators have concluded that a natural gas leak that was accidentally ignited was the cause of the explosion that rocked the ConAgra Slim Jim plant here (GM June 15, p. 10). “It has been ruled a natural gas explosion with ignition from an unknown source, although there were several possible identified sources in the room,” Garner Police Dept. spokesman Chris Clayton told Green Markets. Clayton said he didn’t think anhydrous ammonia, used in the plant for refrigeration, was ever seriously considered as a source of the explosion. “I think in the beginning everything was considered and investigators went to work with all possibilities on the table, but soon narrowed it down to the natural gas. The ammonia release was a result of the explosion.” The explosion killed three employees and injured more than 40 others.

Gavilon unit opens new warehouse in Mexico

Savannah-Pacifex, a wholly-owned subsidiary of Gavilon Fertilizer LLC, has opened a new fertilizer storage facility in Los Mochis, Mexico, near the Port of Topolobampo. The new facility has a 40,000-ton storage capacity and features a dry blend plant, as well as truck and railroad scales, making it possible to dispatch and receive railcars. Gavilon notes that with more than 20 million hectares of crops, ranging from coffee to sugar cane, Mexico is the second largest agricultural market in Latin America after Brazil. One of the largest importers/distributors in Mexico, Pacifex was founded in April 1993 in response to the market’s need for fertilizer. This is just the latest in a long list of recent announcements from Gavilon (GM June 15, p. 1).

Potash One Legacy project valued at $4.47 B

Vancouver-Potash One said last week that a pre-feasibility study (PFS) of its Legacy potash project in Saskatchewan gives it a value of US$4.47 billion. This is an estimated net present value after tax at a 10 percent discount rate. The PFS estimates are based on estimated capital and operating costs for a 2.5 million mt/y potash solution mine, a financial model based on 100 percent equity, and future potash prices. The initial mine life is 40 years. Estimated capital cost is $1.877 billion, including allowances for contingency, risk, and escalation. The estimated after-tax and royalty internal rate of return is 30.1 percent. “The PFS study estimates confirm our view that the Legacy project has the potential to become a high quality, long-life potash solution mine with robust economics,” said Paul Matysek, Potash One president and CEO. “We have a sizeable resource, a best in class technical team and a strategic plan for international capital investment. By utilizing proven solution mining technology, we believe that Potash One will develop a scalable, low risk mining operation which could see its first production as early as Q4 2013.”

California ag officials deny rift over budget

Sacramento-State agriculture officials are downplaying any differences with legislative leaders who have started looking for savings in the department to help ease the California budget crisis, including changes in fertilizer oversight. State Sen. Dean Florez is proposing shifting major duties of the California Dept. of Food and Agriculture to other state or local agencies to recoup as much as $100 million of its $300 million budget by eliminating its executive office; transferring fertilizer, chemical, and pest control work to the Dept. of Pesticide Regulation; and assigning health and animal inspection to state health agencies. Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger, who has been working hard to close a $24 billion budget gap, is reported to be opposed to cutting back agriculture. Still, Florez is determined, insisting that “in agriculture, there are business considerations, and there are public health considerations, and we already have agencies that serve both of those functions. Agriculture had its own set of rules on air quality and worker protections for a long time, but we have finally reversed those to protect both the environment and public health. There are certainly more changes in the pipeline to protect the state’s finances.”

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