All Posts from December 7, 2009

Market Watch

AMMONIA

U.S. Gulf/Tampa: Nothing new was reported in the market last week, leaving the Tampa benchmark at $325/mt DEL. Sources expect things to remain quiet over much of the holiday season – at least until buyers get closer to the New Year.

In the meantime, barge business was reported to also be quiet – if not at a standstill – at least on the ag market. Sources report that inland terminals are well stocked.

Eastern Cornbelt: Sources continued to report firming nitrogen prices. One source said ammonia movement to the field was dead last week. The spot ammonia market was quoted at $360-$390/st FOB in the region, depending on location, with forward contract and spring prepay quotes falling in the $425-$435/st FOB range out of regional terminals.

Another source said many fall prepay ammonia tons went unapplied in the region, reportedly resulting in a glut of supply at inland terminals. Some suppliers were apparently agreeing to refunds for fall prepay tons booked in the low-$300s/st FOB, knowing that those buyers will now have to make up that lost business by committing to spring prepay tons at much higher prices.

Western Cornbelt: Spot ammonia pricing was pegged at $340-$360/st FOB in the region, with forward contract tons pegged at $410-$435/st FOB regional terminals for January through May shipments, depending on location. There were reports of ammonia tons moving to the field in some areas last week.

California: Anhydrous ammonia remained at $430-$435/st truck-DEL and $465/st rail-DEL in the California market, with aqua ammonia listed at $119/st FOB. Calamco’s postings will firm on Dec. 7 to $480/st truck-DEL. Agrium’s ammonia postings were also slated to firm on Dec. 7 to $480/st truck-DEL in central California and $485/st truck-DEL in northern California.

Pacific Northwest: The spot market for anhydrous ammonia had firmed from last report, with dealer pricing reported in the $355-$425/st DEL range in the Pacific Northwest.

Western Canada: The anhydrous ammonia cash market was quoted at $620-$665/mt DEL in Western Canada, up from last report, with the lower numbers in Manitoba and the upper end in Alberta on a spot basis. Reference levels were reported as high as $675/mt DEL in the region in early December.

Middle East: Sources report supplies are stable, with Sabic looking a bit short when faced with increasing demand from Asian buyers.

Sabic sold a cargo that was originally slated to come from Iran to a European-based trader. One observer said unclear technical issues caused the trader to look to Saudi Arabia to cover the deal.

Traders and producers operating in the area question just how serious Iran is about becoming a major player in the ammonia market, pointing to problems of being a consistent supplier. Industrial buyers are less forgiving of loading and shipping delays than most fertilizer buyers, said one source. He noted that the material usually lifted from Iran is heading to fertilizer buyers rather than industrial ones.

Sabic reports its number II and III facilities are back up and running. Sources do not expect the plants to hit full capacity for another couple of weeks.

Prices have not moved from the current $295-$305/mt FOB, say sources. Observers expect to see the top end begin to slip in the next couple of weeks. By the end of the year, said one source, the lower end will also begin to drop.

Black Sea: Sources in Asia say the price in Yuzhnyy depends on American demand. Just as the U.S. Thanksgiving holidays began, Yara settled its December Tampa price at $325/mt CFR.

A Yuzhnyy equivalent price from the new Tampa price would be $225-$235/mt FOB. Sources were not able to confirm any new deals in the area at that level.

A few purchases have been reported out of the area, but no one is talking about specific prices. At present, the best guess is that prices remain in the upper $290s/mt FOB.

UREA

U.S.Gulf: Granular barge prices continued to move up last week, with most players putting new prompt trades within the $315-$320/st FOB range. Sellers were seeking $322-$325/st FOB for the next round of trading.

In the meantime, sources said prills, which had recently been trading at a premium to granular, are now having a harder time keeping up.

Eastern Cornbelt: The granular urea market had reportedly firmed to $335-$350/st FOB in the region, with forward contract tons in the $350-$360/st FOB range for January through April. Sources said the urea market was a moving target based on barge values that were moving up rapidly last week.

Western Cornbelt: Urea prices were ratcheting up quickly last week. An Iowa source put the dealer market firmly at the $350/st FOB level at midweek. Koch’s posted price FOB Enid, Okla., moved on Dec. 1 to $335/st from the Nov. 26 list price of $320/st FOB. CF’s cash price FOB St. Louis, Mo., moved to $335/st FOB on Dec. 1 before firming to the $350/st FOB level on Dec. 3.

Agrium’s granular urea postings firmed on Nov. 27 to $360/st FOB North Dakota terminals at Alton, Carrington, Colfax, Scranton, and Grand Forks, and $365/st rail-DEL in Minnesota, Wisconsin, and the Dakotas. Those numbers reflected a $20/st increase from the company’s Nov. 9 list prices.

California: Granular urea was reported at $370-$385/st rail-DEL and $375-$390/st FOB to the dealer, reflecting an increase of $15-$25/st from last report.

Pacific Northwest: Granular urea was tagged at $360-$380/st DEL in the region, reflecting a $20/st increase from last report. Agrium’s granular urea postings firmed on Nov. 27 to $360-$375/st DEL in Montana and Wyoming, depending on location; $380/st FOB warehouses at Acequia and Pella, Idaho, and at Washington locations at Glade, Warden, and Wilson; $385/st DEL in Washington, Idaho, Oregon, and northern Nevada; $395/st DEL in northern and central Utah; and $400/st DEL in southern Utah. Those levels were up $20/st from the company’s Nov. 9 list prices.

Western Canada: Granular urea pricing was up slightly from last report. Sources pegged the dealer market at $446-$471/mt DEL, with the high reported in Alberta. The common dealer price in Saskatchewan was quoted at the $451/mt DEL level last week. Reference levels for urea were as high as $480/mt DEL in the region in early December.

India: An IPL tender closed Saturday, Dec. 5.

How many tons IPL will take will depend on the price and basic logistics. There are already reports of pre-tender tons purchased. Sources did not specify the suppliers, however.

One observer said IPL stepped up because it wanted to get in ahead of a major jump in price they feel is coming due to U.S. demand. The latest numbers from Indonesia and China confirmed that increases were happening quickly and could hold.

Most traders were unwilling to guess how many tons IPL would buy. Quantities range between 200,000 mt and 500,000 mt. One player, however, said Indian reserves are in pretty good shape. He predicts IPL will only take five or six cargoes in the tender. It will all depend on the price.

When the tender was called Nov. 30, sources said IPL was hoping to secure its purchases under $300/mt CFR. Few now think that is possible.

The tender documents call for a validity date until Dec. 8, and for loadings to take place within 14 days of an offering company getting an award.

This timetable, said one trader, suggests IPL will be spending most of its time at the IFA conference this week in Malaysia talking to companies looking to make a deal. Sources report that IPL added a number of new delegates to the IFA gathering. Industry watchers are speculating that the extra IPL team will be part of the talks to lower the final import price.

One source familiar with India said the additional names on the IPL list might be government officials. The government is under an austerity program that limits spending for international events. The source said it is not unusual for Indian companies to pay for some government participation in conferences under these circumstances.

The loading time also suggests that IPL designed the tender to ensure Chinese tons are considered in the mix of offered tons.

Black Sea: Prices moved up on news of the IPL/India tender and reports that some pre-tender deals have been done.

Sources report deals concluded in the mid $260s/mt FOB. At least one deal at $265/mt FOB was confirmed by Asian sources. Other deals at $268/mt FOB are also reported.

Sources say owners are now rejecting bids in the $270s/mt FOB, but there are no reports of buyers accepting the higher prices as last week ended.

As the week ended and before the IPL tender numbers were released, industry watchers put the market at $265-$268/mt FOB. Some argue the upper end of the range will go into the $270s/mt FOB.

Industry watchers say Black Sea tons may not be seriously considered in the Indian tender because of freight issues.

Vessel owners, sources say, are not anxious to commit their ships to Indian ports during the rainy season. Ships could end up sitting for days at anchor waiting for an unloading berth if the weather does not cooperate. These same ships, said one source, could be used to carry other goods to less problematic ports.

Middle East: Producers in the Arab Gulf all claim they have no excess reserves and that supply and demand is nicely in balance.

Traders, however, say that with the exception of Sabic, producers in the area might be aggressive in the IPL/India tender in order to secure an award or two.

The tightness Sabic enjoys is a combination of long-term contracts and the soft loan program between the government of Saudi Arabia and Pakistan. Sources say no date has been set for the first shipment to Pakistan. The conventional wisdom has cargoes flowing out of Sabic facilities in January, a traditionally slow period for Arab Gulf urea.

Industry watchers will look at the IPL tender closely to see how producers play their prices and how many tons the Indians will buy.

In the past, when stockpiles are building in producers’ warehouses, Arab Gulf producers have low-balled the price to grab as many awards as possible. At one time an India buyer settled with only Middle East buyers, leaving Yuzhnyy offers on the table.

The other option the producers could take is to use the tender to push prices higher. Sources say this strategy only works if supplies and freight work against Yuzhnyy and Chinese producers. Currently, said one source, the Chinese tons are in play, but Yuzhnyy tons may be eliminated because of higher freight rates.

Until the new numbers are known from the tender, sources say the price of Middle East urea has not changed.

Indonesia: Pusri closed a selling prilled tender Dec. 2 for 20,000 mt in 5,000 mt lots. The new price shocked the market. Just the previous week, Liven took the Kaltim granular tender with $297/mt FOB.

Sakura Hanaku won 5,000 mt at $328/mt FOB. The runner up was Urbantara, which matched the Sakura price and took the remaining 15,000 mt.

The price surprised many in the Asian market. Sources say Liven’s phone has been ringing off the hook with companies looking to buy the 20,000 mt it won during Thanksgiving week at $297/mt FOB.

Sources report Pusri still has about 50,000 mt available for export.

China: Prices keep moving up. In addition to strong domestic demand, sources say the IPL tender announcement has caused producers to start asking for higher prices.

Sources peg Chinese urea just at the $300/mt FOB level, with prills at $293-$295/mt FOB.

Even at those higher rates, sources say compared to the Middle East and Black Sea, the Chinese product could prove to be a reasonable purchase for IPL.

The issue that might hurt Chinese sales is the shipping industry. Sources say ship owners might be more interested in moving any cargo other than urea into India.

Bangladesh: The national government’s cabinet purchase committee has approved the import of 200,000 mt of urea from China under a contract to meet high demand in the upcoming season.

NITROGEN SOLUTIONS

U.S. Gulf: The last done prompt barge business reported last week was in the $172-$178/st FOB ($5.38-$5.56/unit) range. Sources differed over whether there were any spot barges available or whether the quotes had just gotten too high to garner any buying action. One seller said buyers started walking away once prices hit $170s/st FOB.

Many sources were talking $200/st FOB and above for first quarter cargoes, much of this based on the paper market. Others said the prompt market may indeed get there, but that buyers are not paying those numbers for product on a prompt basis.

Eastern Cornbelt: UAN was quoted at $6.88-$7.45/unit FOB regional terminals for cash market tons, reflecting another increase from the previous week. Cash market postings from one supplier firmed on Dec. 3 to $7.20-$7.45/unit FOB in the region, with forward contract prices ranging from $7.20-$7.65/unit FOB for January through May, depending on location.

Western Cornbelt: Sources quoted the UAN-32 market in a broad range at $210-$232/st FOB ($6.56-$7.25/unit) FOB, with the low in Nebraska on a spot basis and the upper end reported in Iowa to the dealer.

California: The UAN-32 market was quoted at $230-$240/st ($7.19-$7.50/unit) DEL in California, with the warehouse number now pegged in the $215-$240/st ($6.72-$7.50/unit) FOB range to the dealer.

Pacific Northwest: Delivered UAN had reportedly firmed to $230-$240/st ($7.19-$7.50/unit) in the region.

Western Canada: The UAN-28 market was up some $15/mt from last report, with pricing to the dealer reported at $267-$283/mt ($9.54-$10.11/unit) DEL in Western Canada. Reference levels for UAN-28 were quoted at the $293/mt ($10.46/unit) level on the upper end.

AMMONIUM NITRATE

U.S. Gulf: There appears to be more interest now in the product, and sources expect that it may now be under pressure to move up and follow urea and UAN. Still, for now, most continue to call the market $200-$205/st FOB, with more saying it is currently weighted more toward the $205/st end of the range.

Western Cornbelt: The ammonium nitrate market was quoted at $260-$270/st FOB in the region, up slightly from last report. Sources pegged the Catoosa, Okla., market at $250-$260/st FOB, also reflecting a slight increase, while the reference price FOB Yazoo City, Miss., had reportedly firmed to the $325/st level for truck shipments.

California: No market was reported for ammonium nitrate in the state. The CAN-17 market was unchanged at $235-$245/st FOB to the dealer.

Pacific Northwest: Ammonium nitrate remained at $335-$350/st DEL for the last done business. CAN-17 pricing was unchanged at $245-$250/st FOB and $260/st DEL in the region.

AMMONIUM SULFATE

Eastern Cornbelt: Granular ammonium sulfate was pegged at $195-$200/st FOB in the region.

Western Cornbelt: Granular ammonium sulfate remained at $185-$200/st FOB in the region.

California: Ammonium sulfate pricing was steady at $210-$247/st FOB, depending on grade and location, with the lower numbers quoted for standard grade product.

Pacific Northwest: Ammonium sulfate had reportedly firmed to the $200/st DEL level in the region.

Western Canada: Granular ammonium sulfate remained at $290-$305/mt DEL to the dealer, depending on location.

PHOSPHATES

Central Florida: The Central Florida phosphate market finally got a boost last week, in terms of both price and transactions. Traders and producers reported a definite uptick in sales, although one said it appeared buyers were taking less than they normally would for this time of year. However, all agreed business had improved substantially in comparison to recent months.

Although Mosaic ceased operations of its Green Bay and South Pierce phosphate processing plants in Central Florida back in 2006, it announced last week that the shuttering would be permanent and that the company would take a write down for equipment at the facilities, which were expected to amount to about $50-million in pre-tax dollars.

PotashCorp will delay the planned turnaround at its Aurora plant in North Carolina from early December to mid-month. Its White Springs facility was said to be “producing to meet market demand.”

CF had no phosphate available for immediate delivery, but was expected to begin offering sometime in January.

The Central Florida DAP price range last week moved up from $270-$275/st FOB the previous week to $285-$290/st FOB. Both Mosaic and PCS Sales were charging a $10/st FOB premium for MAP. Agrifos increased its prices $10/st FOB, to $315/st FOB for DAP, $320/st FOB for MAP for trucks, and $5/st less for rail shipments. Mosaic posted a price of $285/st FOB for rail shipments, which was about the same as PCS Sales out of White Springs, but below what it charges out of Aurora.

U.S. Gulf: It may not be rocket science, but prices on the river were acting like it was stage two of a space shuttle take off on the river system last week. Very, very early in the week, a barge deal was done at $300/st FOB, but shortly after the same buyer took another at $5/st higher.

The NOLA DAP barge market was actually acting like what it was supposed to be, a market ruled by supply and demand. The supply was low so prices were heading upward, and the pace was faster later in the week.

Due to circumstances earlier in the year when the market was doing less than Congress on break, producers took the opportunity to do turnarounds and slowdowns, and curtailed production significantly. At that time export was pretty much the only game in town, and supplies everywhere from terminals to dealers’ bins were barely covered by dust. Since few were buying, it did not matter. Farmers were waiting for the rain to stop so dealers were reluctant to commit, especially after getting burned last year. Then, a couple of weeks ago, fields dried, crops were harvested, and the game began. The problem was, there wasn’t much to sell. Terminals were nearly empty, and barges were not loaded or available.

After trailing the barge market for months, warehouse prices finally began to rise. Dealers were not hitting terminals in massive numbers, but when supplies were so low, it was more than enough to begin the drive. By late last week, terminal prices for DAP were as high as $335/st FOB and MAP was $10/st FOB more. The lowest warehouse prices found were in the St. Louis areas, at $315-$325/st FOB.

Yields for corn and beans were very good, and prices were extremely healthy. Corn for December was above $3.90/bushel, and soybeans for January were about $10.40/bushel. Farmers will have money to spend on fertilizer for their spring planting, and after having mined their land for the past two years, need to put some serious quantities on the ground.

By last Thursday, the price of NOLA DAP barges moved from $305/st FOB to $310/st FOB, and the new asking price was generally about $315/st FOB by the afternoon. With the export market on the move and the Jupiter-sized hole in supplies, the market should be in good shape well into the spring season, so prices were unlikely to make a retreat, said sources. A sale of a NOLA DAP barge for delivery in January was done at $315/st FOB, but hours later the new asking price was $320/st FOB for that period.

The NOLA DAP barge range last week was $300-$310/st FOB, up from the previous week’s range of $285-$297/st FOB, and was likely to be up again this week, said sources. MAP prices were running about $10/st higher than DAP, but that commodity was scarce and the price differential may increase in the near future.

Eastern Cornbelt: DAP was steady at $320-$330/st FOB regional warehouses to the dealer, with MAP at a $10/st premium. One supplier was referencing forward contract DAP at $335-$350/st FOB in the region for January through April, depending on location and month.

10-34-0 was unchanged at $315-$330/st FOB in the region.

Western Cornbelt: The DAP market was pegged at $315-$330/st FOB in the region, with the upper end reported in Iowa to the dealer. The low end was reported in the St. Louis market early in the week, but sources said DAP cash market pricing there had firmed to the $320/st FOB level as the week progressed, with forward pricing for January through March in the $330-$345/st FOB range.

MAP was $10/st higher than DAP. 10-34-0 was reported at $310-$345/st FOB, with the common dealer market in Iowa reported at the $330/st level last week. The upper end of the 10-34-0 range was reported in Missouri on a spot basis.

Agrium’s phosphoric acid postings are slated to firm $10/st on Jan. 1 to $680/st rail-DEL in Colorado, Iowa, Kansas, Minnesota, Nebraska, New Mexico, the Dakotas, Oklahoma, Texas, and Wyoming. Another $10/st takes effect on Feb. 1, bringing reference prices in those states to the $690/st rail-DEL for both merchant grade acid (MGA) and super phosphoric acid (SPA).

California: DAP and MAP continued to be quoted at $370-$375/st FOB or DEL in California on the low end, although higher postings were in effect from some suppliers. Agrium’s MAP postings firmed on Nov. 30 to $395/st FOB warehouse or rail-DEL in California and Arizona.

16-20-0 remained at $270-$277/st FOB and $270/st railDEL, and the 10-34-0 market in California was pegged at $333-$354/st FOB, with the low in the Central Valley and the upper end at desert locations.

SPA and MGA were unchanged at $7.40/unit DEL in California, with Simplot referenced at $7.60/unit FOB the warehouse for MGA. Agrium’s phosphoric acid postings are slated to firm $10/st on Jan. 1 to $750/st rail-DEL in California and Arizona. Another $10/st takes effect on Feb. 1, bringing Agrium’s reference prices in those states to the $760/st rail-DEL for both SPA and MGA.

Pacific Northwest: DAP and MAP remained at $360-$365/st DEL on the low end. Agrium’s MAP postings firmed on Nov. 30 to $380/st DEL in Montana and Wyoming; $385/st DEL in southern Idaho, Utah, Nevada, and Oregon’s Malheur County; and $390/st DEL and $385/st FOB the warehouse in Washington, northern Idaho, and Oregon excluding Malheur County.

10-34-0 was steady at $350-$360/st FOB, and 16-20-0 pricing remained at $265-$270/st DEL in the region.

SPA and MGA were steady as well at $7.40/unit DEL in the region. Agrium’s phosphoric acid postings are slated to firm $10/st on Jan. 1 to $750/st rail-DEL in Idaho, Montana, Oregon, Utah, Nevada, and Washington. Another $10/st takes effect on Feb. 1, bringing reference prices in those states to the $760/st rail-DEL for both SPA and MGA.

Western Canada: MAP was quoted at $462-$497/mt DEL in the region, up roughly $20/mt from last report. One source put the common dealer range in Saskatchewan in the $467-$477/mt DEL range last week. Reference levels for MAP were pegged as high as $505/mt DEL in the region in early December.

The 10-34-0 market was reported at $420-$423/mt DEL in Alberta and Saskatchewan, up $15/mt from last report.

U.S. Export: International buyers who had been sitting on the fence in hopes prices would fall were in the process of jumping onto solid ground in a surging market by last week.

Pakistan bought three vessel loads, about 125,000 mt, which included two from Tunisia and another from Mexico.

PhosChem made a sale of 10,000 mt into Central America at $330/mt FOB, then another 5,000 mt into Mexico at $335/mt FOB. Agrifos got back into the export game with a sale of about 8,000 mt at the highest price of the week at $342/mt FOB.

China, which surprised everyone in November with purchases of around 450,000 mt, raised its own price to an uncompetitive $400/mt FOB. That move will help push export prices for the rest of the world higher.

Last week, the export DAP price range rose from $305-$320/mt FOB the previous week to $330-$342/mt FOB. PhosChem was seeking an increased price of $345/mt FOB for its next sale. Export prices will continue to rise, at least for the near future.

Pakistan: Engro Fertilizer has finally booked two 25,000 mt DAP cargoes of Tunisian origin from Trammo and ICEC, both at a negotiated price of US$360/mt CFR Karachi, according to market sources. That said, the government says there is sufficient supply of local production and imports to meet the demand of 550,000 mt during the Rabi season.

POTASH

Eastern Cornbelt: Potash was steady at $440-$450/st FOB in the region, depending on grade and location.

Western Cornbelt: Potash pricing remained at $440-$450/st FOB in the region.

California: Potash was pegged at $475-$495/st DEL in California, depending on grade and location. Warehouse postings for granular potash remained as high as $500/st FOB in Northern California. Potassium nitrate was steady at $1,080/st FOB for bulk tons and $1,150/st FOB for bags, and the sulfate of potash (SOP) market was unchanged at $675-$730/st FOB for bulk tons, depending on grade and supplier.

Pacific Northwest: Rail-delivered potash remained at $475-$495/st in the region, depending on location. Out of mine locations in Utah, the market was pegged at $432-$440/st FOB, with regional warehouse postings at the $484/st FOB.

Western Canada: Potash postings to Canadian customers FOB Saskatchewan mines remained at a nominal $560-$569/mt, depending on grade.

SULFUR

Tampa: Unlike the phosphate markets, sulfur prices were essentially stagnating last week, although delivered prices for export moved up – only because of rising ocean freight rates. A drop in freight rates would be a minor boon to sulfur producers.

Oddly, the supply of sulfur was limited, and some under contract to deliver had to pay more on the spot market to make up for short supplies than they were receiving under their contracts.

Refineries were running at below 80 percent capacity, and many were down due to problems and turnarounds. That, combined with much more sweet crude than a year ago, was cutting into supplies. With the depressed economy, motorists were using less gasoline.

In December, at least four vessels were scheduled to be loaded with prill sulfur at Gulf ports. That will remove around 140,000 mt from inventories, which were beginning to grow.

The bright light on the horizon was the higher level of activity in the phosphate industry, which has been on the rise in terms of both price and sales during the past few weeks. Phosphate producers will want to kick up output, and that means a greater need for sulfur. Negotiations for the first quarter probably will not start until the second week of January, when the hangovers pass and everyone gets back to work. Expect higher prices out of the next round of talks.

Vancouver: Contract prices will likely rise for consumers buying from Vancouver during the next round, as supplies tighten.

MARKET NOTES

India: Fertilizers and Chemicals Travancore Ltd. (FACT) has appointed Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu India Pvt. Ltd to prepare a five-year growth and diversification roadmap for the Rs 20bn investment plans of the public sector unit, according to a senior official. The company had been posting lossses since 1998 and came out of it in the financial year ended March 2008, when it posted a net profit of Rs 60mn. It posted profit of Rs 429.5mn in fiscal 2009.

The new projects include setting up a urea plant with an annual capacity of 500,000 mt/y at an investment of Rs. 6.95bn to be in tune with the availability of liquefied natural gas (LNG) by 2012, revamping and modifying the existing complex fertilizer unit to 1.0 million mt/y from the current 633,000 mt/y at an investment of Rs. 2bn, and a Rs 7.5bn caprolactam production capacity expansion from 50,000 mt/y to 150,000 mt/y.