TFI takes issue with Gulf hypoxia study

Madison, Wisc.-A new study that attempts to quantify the impact of increased corn acreage for biofuels production on the size of the Gulf of Mexico’s “Dead Zone” states that nutrient loading will worsen in the Gulf because of the U.S. government’s corn-based ethanol production goals. “This rush to expand corn production is a disaster for the Gulf of Mexico,” said Simon Donner, an assistant professor in the Department of Geography at the University of British Columbia and one of the study’s authors. By combining agricultural land use scenarios with models of terrestrial and aquatic nitrogen cycling, Donner and co-author Chris Kucharik of the University of Wisconsin suggest that if the U.S. were to meet its proposed ethanol production goal of 36 billion gallons annually by the year 2022, nitrogen loading from fertilizer carried by the Mississippi River to the Gulf of Mexico would increase by 10-19 percent. “The nitrogen levels in the Mississippi will be more than twice the recommendation for the Gulf,” Donner said. “It will overwhelm all the suggested mitigation options.” The study, published in the March 10 edition of the Proceedings of the National Journal of Sciences, concludes that increasing ethanol production from U.S. croplands without endangering water quality and aquatic ecosystems will require a substantial reduction in meat consumption. The Fertilizer Institute took issue with several of the study’s claims. “With the record corn acres, it’s not hugely surprising to see these kinds of stories coming out,” said Kathy Mathers, TFI’s vice president of public affairs. “It all harkens back to fertilizer use efficiency. Farmers are doing a better job now than they ever have in the past of making sure that these nutrients are getting to the plants.” Bill Hertrz, TFI’s vice president of Scientific Programs, said there are a number of factors driving this efficiency, including precision agriculture, better management techniques, and drought resistant hybrids. “The size of the Dead Zone doesn’t necessarily correspond to the use of fertilizers,” Hertrz told Green Markets. “The highest correlation is simply with the amount of water coming into the system, not with the amount of N or P.” Both Hertrz and Mathers were skeptical of the study’s conclusions. “The real point is that we shouldn’t tack this as a biofuels vs. hypoxia argument,” Hertrz said. “That’s clearly a tactic to drive public opinion about the use of biofuels.”