Trinidad Energy Minister Dr. Lenny Saith and Prime Minister Patrick Manning have been responding to an energy audit conducted by Houston-based Ryder Scott that indicates the country has 12 years of natural gas reserves. Saith was reported by the local press as stating on Aug. 10 that at current usage rates the country would run out of gas in 2019.
Saith and Manning were quick to say the data should not be misinterpreted, and that much exploration is underway that can boost those estimates. Manning, a geologist, said much of the country has not been explored. Manning noted that two firms are planning on investing some $6.2 billion in the energy sector in the next five to six years.
Trinidad nitrogen producers last week were in line with government assessments. “The 12 years referenced by Houston-based Ryder Scott is based on current proven reserves. We are extremely confident, based on the unanimous view of the Trinidad natural gas producers, that extensive reserves remain untapped,” said Tom Pasztor, spokesman for Potash Corp. of Saskatchewan Inc., which has major nitrogen plants in Trinidad.
“At this stage we do not have anything new to report regarding the gas situation in Trinidad,” said Hamed Brodersen, spokesman for Yara International ASA, another Trinidad nitrogen producer. “But, as far as I know, the conclusions from Ryder Scott have not been released yet, and the media reports have based their stories on existing and projected production rates.”
In the meantime, both CF Industries Holdings Inc. and Terra Industries Inc., which are eyeing the construction of a new plant in Trinidad, said they are still trying to locate a suitable site for the plant. They had no specific comment on the Ryder-Scott report last week. However, CF Chairman and CEO Steve Wilson said in an investor meeting a week ago that in today’s environment, the project could make sense with a proper site.
Three or four proposed nitrogen plants for Trinidad still await financing, including the CF/Terra project. Financiers may now look for more gas guidance before proceeding with a new venture. One industry analyst told Green Markets that any new nitrogen project would likely need to have an assured 20 year supply of natural gas before getting a final nod from lenders.
Nitrogen isn’t the only gas user in Trinidad. The country supplied about two-thirds of U.S. LNG imports in 2006, according to industry sources. Trinidad has also recruited other industrials, and Manning argued that some of his foes are against further industrialization. Some critics say the country has not done enough or has been too slow to encourage further exploration in light of the major increases in industrialization it has seen in the past 30 years.