Coming on the heels of near-record heat in July, the USDA is predicting lower production than last year for corn, soybeans, cotton, and wheat in the U.S., according to the Aug. 11 Crop Production report.
Corn production for 2006 is forecast at 11 billion bushels, down 1 percent from last year and 7 percent below 2004. Based on conditions as of Aug. 1, corn yields are expected to average 152.2 bushels/acre, up 4.3 bushels from last year. If realized, corn yields would be the second largest and production would be the third largest on record.
USDA said corn conditions declined in July across the Great Plains and Western Cornbelt due to above-normal temperatures that depleted soil moisture levels, while expected yields are generally higher than last year in the Eastern Cornbelt and Ohio Valley due to frequent rainfall and adequate soil moisture. The largest corn yield increase from last year is projected in Illinois, USDA said, where farmers expect a 172 bu/a crop on average, compared with last year’s drought-related 143 bu/a yield average. The largest corn yield decreases, however, are expected in Alabama, Mississippi, Georgia, and North Dakota.
U.S. soybean production in 2006 is forecast at 2.93 billion bushels, down 5 percent from 2005 and down 6 percent from 2004. Based on Aug. 1 conditions, yields are expected to average 39.6 bu/a, down 3.7 bushels from the record high U.S. yield set last year. Soybean area for harvest was estimated at 73.9 million acres, unchanged from June but up 4 percent from 2005.
Soybean yields are lower than 2005 throughout the Great Plains, the Western Cornbelt, and the Gulf Coast states, USDA said, while yields are expected to remain unchanged or increase in the Ohio Valley, Arkansas, Missouri, and the Atlantic Coast states.
All cotton production in the U.S. for 2006 is forecast at 20.4 million 480-pound bales, down 14 percent from last year’s record high 23.9 million bales. Yield is expected to average 765 pounds per harvested acre, USDA said, down 66 pounds from 2005. The best cotton crops appear to be taking shape in Missouri and Tennessee, where growers are expecting record high production at 1.03 million and 1.25 million bales, respectively. U.S. producers expect to harvest 12.8 million acres of all cotton in 2006, down 7 percent from last year.
As for the U.S. wheat crop, all production for 2006 was estimated at 1.8 billion bushels, down slightly from the July forecast and down 14 percent from 2005. Based on Aug. 1 conditions, the U.S. yield is forecast at 38.3 bu/a, unchanged from last month but 3.7 bushels below last year.
Winter wheat production in the U.S. is forecast at 1.28 billion bushels, up slightly from last month but 14 percent below 2005, while area harvested for grain totals 31.1 million acres, unchanged from last month but down 8 percent from last year. The U.S. winter wheat yield is forecast at 41.2 bu/a, up 0.1 bushel from July 1.
U.S. rice production is forecast at 197 million cwt, down 12 percent from last year and down 15 percent from 2004. Area for harvest, at 2.9 million acres, is unchanged from June but down 14 percent from last year. Rice plantings, at 2.91 million acres, are also unchanged from the June estimate. USDA attributed the decline in acreage from last year to higher fuel, fertilizer, and irrigation costs. The U.S. rice yield is forecast at 6,813 pounds/a, up 177 pounds from last year, with a record high of 6,900 pounds/a expected in Missouri.
The report’s weather summary for July contained some startling statistics, reinforcing the scope and severity of the heat wave that blanketed much of the nation during the second half of the month. With an average temperature of 77.2 degrees, the nation experienced its second-hottest July on record, trailing only the 77.5 degree average observed during the Dust Bowl July of 1936. The period from May to July was the third hottest on record for the contiguous U.S., behind 1934 and 1936, and it was the driest May-July period since the record-setting drought year of 1988.
Monthly temperatures averaged as much as 8 degrees above normal in California and the Northern Plains, USDA said, with more than 800 daily-record high temperatures and at least 20 all-time records set or tied from July 12-31. Hotter-than-normal weather also prevailed across the remainder of the Plains and the West, while near-normal temperatures in July were confined to the southern Atlantic region and an area stretching from the western Gulf Coast region northeastward to the lower Ohio Valley