USDA released two reports last week that buoyed crop prices and fueled prospects for still higher fertilizer prices.
USDA’s Nov. 9 Crop Production Report estimated the U.S. corn crop at 12.5 billion bushels, down 1 percent from last month’s estimate and down 4 percent from last year’s record production of 13.1 billion bushels. As of Nov. 1, corn yields were expected to average 154.3 bushels/acre, down 1.5 bushels from the previous month and 10.4 bushels below last year’s record of 164.7 bushels. USDA said yield forecasts had dropped from last month throughout much of the Cornbelt; yield projections increased in the Northern Plains and Great Lakes areas.
The World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report on Nov. 9 reduced U.S. feed grain supplies for 2010/11 on the basis of lower expected corn production. Corn ending stocks for 2010/11 are projected at 827 million bushels, down 75 million bushels from last report and the lowest since 1995/96. Those figures represent a carryout of 6.2 percent of projected usage, compared with 5 percent in 1995/96.
WASDE projected the season-average farm price at $4.80-$5.60 per bushel, up 20 cents on both ends of the range and well above the previous record of $4.20 per bushel in 2007/08.
The Nov. 9 Crop Production Report pegged U.S. soybean production at a record high 3.38 billion bushels, down 1 percent from the October forecast but up slightly from last year. Based on Nov. 1 conditions, soybean yields were expected to average 43.9 bushels/acre, down 0.5 bushel from last month and down 0.1 bushel from last year’s record high. USDA projected yield decreases from last month in Kansas, Nebraska, New Jersey, and South Dakota, but said projected yields in Illinois, Louisiana, New York, and Wisconsin will reach record levels if realized. USDA estimated that 76.8 million acres of soybeans will be harvested in the U.S. this year, up 1 percent from 2009.
WASDE projected total U.S. oilseed production for 2010-2011 at 101.8 million tons, down 1 million tons from last month. Soybean ending stocks were projected at 185 million bushels, down 80 million from last month. Prices for soybeans and products were projected higher for 2010/11. The U.S. season-average soybean price range was projected at $10.70-$12.20 per bushel, up 70 cents on both ends. Global oilseed production for 2010/11 was projected at 440.7 million tons, up 0.1 million from last month.
All U.S. cotton production was forecast at 18.4 million 480-pound bales in the Crop Production Report, down 2 percent from last month but up 51 percent from last year’s 12.2 million bales. Cotton yields are expected to average 821 pounds per harvested acre, up 44 pounds from last year.
WASDE estimated ending cotton stocks at 2.2 million bales, down 500,000 bales and the lowest since 1925. The range for the marketing year average price for 2010-2011 received by producers was forecast at 74-86 cents per pound, up 7 cents on both ends. The midpoint of the range, if realized, would be the highest price since the Civil War. Global ending cotton stocks were reduced 5 percent to 42.2 million bales.
U.S. rice production in 2010/11 was forecast at 241.6 million cwt, 0.7 million below last month due to a decrease in yield. The average rice yield was estimated at 6,669 pounds/acre, down 18 pounds from last month. Harvested area was unchanged at 3.62 million acres. The long-grain, combined medium- and short-grain, and rice season-average farm price forecasts were all unchanged from last month at a range of $10.50-$11.50 per cwt, $17.30-$18.30 per cwt, and $12.10-$13.10 per cwt, respectively.
Global 2010/11 rice production was forecast at a record 451.4 million tons, down 1.1 million from last month. Global ending stocks for 2010/11 were projected at 94.3 million tons, nearly unchanged from last month, but down 1.1 million tons from the previous year.