The USDA on Jan. 12 released its latest crop production estimates for 2011. While lower than 2010 production totals, the updated production and yield numbers for corn and soybeans were up from USDA’s last estimates. The bearish news for corn and soybeans fueled a drop in the fertilizer markets late in the week, according to industry sources.
NOLA urea and DAP barge prices sank on Thursday in the wake of USDA’s crop production and ending stocks updates, according to sources. One said the phosphate market was “in a panic” on Thursday, as DAP barge prices plunged to $450/st FOB after reaching $490/st FOB early in the week. USDA’s new numbers were not the only driver, however; sources also noted that NOLA phosphate barges purchased a few weeks ago at low prices had come on the market, putting pressure on prices. In the meantime, an early week rally in urea prices was also quashed by the crop news, with prices quickly retreating.
Corn for grain production was estimated at 12.4 billion bushels, up some 48 million bushels from the previous forecast, but 1 percent below 2010. The average yield in the U.S. for 2011 was estimated at 147.2 bushels/acre – up 0.5 bushel from the November forecast, but 5.6 bushels below the 2010 average yield of 152.8 bushels. Area harvested for grain was estimated at 84.0 million acres, up 45,000 acres from the November forecast, and up 3 percent from 2010.
Soybean production in 2011 totaled 3.06 billion bushels, up slightly from the November forecast, but down 8 percent from 2010. U.S soybean production in 2011 was the sixth largest crop on record, USDA reported. The average soybean yield was estimated at 41.5 bushels/acre, 0.2 bushel above the November forecast, but 2.0 bushels below last year’s average yield. Harvested soybean area in the U.S. was down 4 percent from 2010, to 73.6 million acres.
USDA faulted unfavorable planting and growing conditions for the production drop from 2010. “Depending on location, producers in the U.S. battled everything from drought and above normal temperatures to heavy rains and lowland flooding, which led to decreased production of corn, soybeans, cotton, and wheat – the first time such a year-to-year decrease has occurred in all four commodities since the 2002 crop year,” USDA noted.
All cotton production was estimated at 15.7 million 480-pound bales, down 1 percent from last month and down 13 percent from 2010. The U.S. cotton yield was estimated at 772 pounds/acre, up 1 pound from the December forecast, but down 40 pounds from last year. Harvested area for cotton, at 9.75 million acres, was down 1 percent from December and down 9 percent from last year.
USDA estimated all wheat production in 2011 at 2.00 billion bushels, down 9 percent from 2010, with the average wheat yield pegged at 43.7 bushels/acre, down 2.6 bushels from last year. Harvested area for wheat, at 45.7 million acres, was down 4 percent from the 2010 crop.
Sorghum grain production in 2011 was estimated at 214 million bushels, a significant 38 percent drop from 2010 due to the drought that hit the sorghum growing areas of the Southern Plains in 2011. The sorghum average yield was 54.6 bushels/acre, down 17.2 bushel from the previous year. Area planted for sorghum, at 5.48 million acres, was up 1 percent from the prior year, while the harvested area, at 3.93 million acres, was down 18 percent from 2010.
Rice production in 2011 was estimated 185 million cwt, down 2 percent from the previous forecast and 24 percent below 2010. Planted area for rice was estimated at 2.69 million acres, down 26 percent from 2010, while the harvested area, at 2.62 million acres, was down slightly from the previous forecast and 28 percent below the previous crop year. The average yield for all U.S. rice was estimated at 7,067 pounds/acre – down 100 pounds from the previous