Washington, D.C.-USDA’s World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report, released Jan. 12, projected higher ending stocks for corn and wheat. Grain demand fell more sharply than expected, and corn use for ethanol collapsed to 3.6 billion bushels from December’s figure of 3.7 billion and November’s estimate of 4.0 billion bushels. Corn exports have also seen a significant drop year over year. Ending stocks for the 2008-09 corn marketing year were 1.790 billion bushels, above the 1.489 billion-bushel trade estimate and higher than USDA’s 1.474 billion December estimate. New-crop wheat ending stocks were at 655 million bushels, over the trade estimate of 600 million bushels and USDA’s December figure of 623 million. Soybean ending stocks also rose, due in part to a lower crush as soy meal consumption by livestock dropped since high grain prices contributed to a greater slaughter of livestock. Ending stocks for the 2008-09 soybean marketing year were 225 million bushels, above the 186 million-bushel trade estimate and above USDA’s December figure of 205 million. USDA also released its annual crop production figures for the 2008 harvest, with corn and soybean production rising since the last USDA tally in November. USDA placed the final size of the 2008-09 U.S. corn crop at 12.101 billion bushels, ahead of trade estimates of 11.982 billion bushels and the November USDA estimate of 12.020 billion. The final size of the 2008-09 U.S. soybean crop was pegged at 2.959 billion bushels, slightly ahead of trade estimates of 2.910 billion bushels and the November estimate of 2.921 billion. USDA said Monday that corn yields for the fall harvest were 153.9 bushels/acre, versus 153.8 bu/a estimated in November. Soybean yields were 39.6 bu/a, versus the 39.3 bu/a forecast in November. Analysts said the higher supplies of corn will likely mean less of an acreage race this spring between corn and soybeans, but estimates for new crop corn continue to vary widely between 80 million and 90 million acres, with 86 million acres commonly cited as the target. USDA also released its first estimate of the new winter wheat crop, with all winter wheat planted acreage for the U.S. pegged at 42.098 million acres. Last year, all land planted to winter wheat was 46.181 million.
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