US Gulf:
NOLA urea prices
strengthened again this week, fueled by tightening supply and an early start to
spring application in the US market.
A high of
$390-$398/st FOB was reported for prompt and first-half March business, with
full-March spanning a wide range from $363/st to the low-$390s/st FOB. Last
week’s range was $330-$366/st FOB for February-March business. April trades
ranged from the low-$360s/st up to $385/st FOB during the week.
Eastern Cornbelt:
Urea prices moved up significantly in the Eastern
Cornbelt in late February, fueled by rapidly firming NOLA barge values, early
spring demand, and tightening supply.
Urea prices began the week at a low of $420-$430/st
FOB before firming to $440-$450/st FOB on Feb. 29, up sharply from the prior
week’s $400-$410/st FOB range. Illinois River terminals reportedly moved from
$420/st to $430-$440/st FOB, while the Cincinnati, Ohio, urea market was quoted
firmly at $440-$450/st FOB as the week progressed.
In the Great Lakes region, urea prices jumped to
$445-$480/st FOB, up from last week’s $430-$450/st FOB range, depending on
location, with delivered prices in Michigan pegged at the $455-$465/st range,
depending on time of shipment.
Western Cornbelt:
Urea prices jumped to
$420-$450/st FOB in the Western Cornbelt, up from the prior week’s $400-$410/st
range, with the higher numbers confirmed as the week advanced. The St. Louis,
Mo., market was quoted firmly at the $440-$450/st FOB level on Feb. 29.
In the Southern Plains,
the latest urea offers at Catoosa/Inola, Okla., fell in a broad $440-$470/st
FOB range for the week, while prices in the Northern Plains strengthened to
$450-$470/st FOB St. Paul, Minn. New offers in the South Central region included
$420/st FOB Convent, La., up from $385-$395/st FOB at last report.
California:
Granular
pricing in California strengthened to $535/st FOB Stockton, up $25/st from last
report, with prilled urea remaining at the $580/st level FOB San Diego.
Rail-DEL urea prices were confirmed in the $500-$520/st range in the state in late
February.
Pacific Northwest:
Urea prices were up
slightly in the Pacific Northwest. The latest offers firmed to $500/st FOB
Rivergate, Ore., and $505/st FOB Aurora, Ore., up $20/st from last report, with
delivered pricing pegged in the $515-$540/st range in the region, depending on
location.
Western Canada:
The
urea market in Western Canada edged up to C$720/mt FOB and C$750-$765/mt DEL,
up from recent lows of C$690/mt FOB and C$720/mt DEL.
Mediterranean:
The
Mediterranean granular urea market slipped to $410-$425/mt CFR, with sources
adamant that the prior week’s high end is no longer workable in any market.
In
Spain, demand was scarce so import offers of $435-$440/mt CFR were met with
little to no enthusiasm. Similarly, the Italian import market was muted, with
no tons changing hands despite lower offers of $410/mt CFR. Yara Ferrara’s
expected restart in March is also likely to deter the appetite for offshore product.
Turkey
has seen a flurry of cheaper Iranian material, which is not included in this
week’s range. In nearby Romania, bids were reported to have slipped to
sub-$400/mt CFR levels, while offers remain some $20/mt higher.
Prilled
urea in the Mediterranean moved to a wider range this week. While no
transactions were confirmed, indications by Italian buyers around $380/mt CFR reflected
the low end of the range, with offers by traders into Spain at $440/mt CFR
reflecting the high.
Domestic
producer Fertiberia is reportedly offering prills ex-Huelva at €385-€390/mt
FCA, equivalent to around $417-$422/mt at midweek exchange rates.
Black
Sea:
Prilled
urea softened marginally in the Black Sea. Sources now put prices from the area
at $300-$320/mt FOB.
India:
Speculation
surrounding the date of India’s next urea tender is now centered on March 15 or
later. Throughout the week, traders reported hearing from Indian sources that
the tender will be called on March 15-20.
However,
some have noted rumblings that the Indian government may push back the tender
until the end of March or first week of April. The argument for the delay, said
sources, is that a later tender call could result in lower offer prices.
China
also appears to be paying close attention to when the tender is called, traders
noted. In China’s case, the government is looking to ensure the price does not
rise in a way that could spill over into the domestic market.
At
the same time, the Chinese government does not want the price to crash and
cause a hardship for producers. If Chinese urea is not released for export
until May, as some rumors claim, sources estimated that only one or two cargoes
of Chinese material might find their way into India. India would then be forced
to depend on the Arab Gulf, and possibly Russia, to meet its needs.
Southeast
Asia:
Pupuk Kaltim
closed a granular urea tender with Koch last week at $386.25/mt FOB. Since
then, Kaltim made another deal for a shipment to Australia at the same price.
The deal followed
the usual pattern in Indonesia. Pupuk will often close a tender before entering
into private talks to sell additional cargoes at the tender price. Sources
expect to see several additional deals closed in the near future.
Urea in the
Southeast Asia market remains tight, although some easing was felt with
Indonesia back in the export market, having awarded its 25,000 mt tender. The
country could supply up to 150,000 mt in the coming weeks, provided that no
changes occur to export permitting.
No further deals
were heard ex-Malaysia, where Petronas has both its Bintulu and Gurun plants
down. Granular urea was quoted at $386-$405/mt FOB this week, with the low
end reflecting the Indonesian tender and the high reflecting last week’s
Vietnam cargo to Latin America.
Thailand imported
245,000 mt of urea in January, according to Trade Data Monitor, asignificant
increase from the year-ago 62,000 mt. Saudi Arabia accounted for 56% of the
imports, sending 137,000 mt.
The size of the
Saudi shipment is of no surprise. In past years, Saudi urea has accounted for
about half of all urea imports into Thailand. Sources noted that SABIC often
gives Thai buyers extremely favorable rates in order to remain the country’s
dominate source of urea.
Middle
East:
No
new spot deals were reported from the area, leaving the granular price in the
upper-$370s/mt FOB. Most new discussions were noted firming into the
low-$380s/mt FOB, however, with producers pushing hard for $385/mt FOB.
The
drive for higher prices comes as some regional buyers expressed concern that
the US might step into the market for a series of major purchases. That concern
ebbed by the end of the week, however, giving buyers in Southeast Asia in
particular an edge in talks with producers.
Circulating
rumors placed discussions for Egyptian product around $395-$400/mt FOB. No new
deals have been announced, however, leaving prices at the last-done $406/mt FOB
level. The market’s most recent price is down from early February, when deals
were cut at $410/mt FOB.
Iranian
producers are now said to be quoting $335/mt FOB while noting that supplies are
limited. Output is reportedly down from at least three plants as natural gas is
being diverted for residential use.
China:
Industry
watchers seem resigned to the notion that no Chinese urea will hit the market
until May. The process to clear product for export might begin in mid-April,
sources speculated, but the first vessels are unlikely to load until the first
week of May.
Reports
of rising domestic urea prices offered the latest indication that China will
delay permission to export urea. The purpose of China’s restrictive export
policy was to ensure cheap and plentiful urea to the domestic market, one
trader noted. Any upward movement in the domestic price could signal the need
to continue building local reserves.
The
government was also said to be watching what India does with its upcoming
tender. To avoid a rush of product in the tender, sources said China may wait
until India calls the tender and then decide when exports may be allowed. Even
if the tender is called soon, the current May shipping estimate could mean that
only one or two cargoes might be included in the tender.
Brazil:
Brazil urea prices
rebounded 5.2%, to $394-$395/mt CFR from last week’s $370-$380/mt CFR, though
product originating from sanctioned countries remained available at $390/mt
CFR. Following a handful of small-volume transactions in the mid-$390s/mt CFR,
new offers firmed to the $395-$400/mt CFR range.
Despite limited demand in Rondonópolis, urea prices
narrowed to the $500-$520/mt FOB ex-warehouse range, with players citing low
market activity, a push for discounts, and bullish signals in the CFR market.
Argentina:
January
urea imports to Argentina stood at 150,000 mt, Trade Data Monitor
reported, up sharply from 3,600 mt in January 2023. Nigeria supplied 56% of the
tonnage with 86,000 mt, followed by Algeria with 42,000 mt.