Central Florida:

Central Florida DAP trucks continued to be priced at $630/st FOB, sources said, while MAP was unchanged at $655/st FOB. North Florida MAP postings were steady at $650/st FOB.

US Gulf:

An early start to the spring application season stimulated the barge market, sources said. With inland sales reportedly generating high netbacks relative to NOLA prices, DAP pressed 3% higher, to $605-$620/st FOB from the week-ago $580-$610/st FOB. MAP trades were reported at a flat $625/st FOB, rising from $605-$625/st FOB at last report.

US Exports:

Nothing new was reported on the US Gulf market, leaving DAP and MAP export prices steady at $570/mt FOB.

Eastern Cornbelt:

DAP prices moved to $660-$670/st FOB in the Eastern Cornbelt, up from the prior week’s low of $650/st FOB. Illinois River terminals were pegged solidly at the $660/st FOB level for March-May tons, with the Cincinnati market reported at $660-$670/st FOB for the latest offers. In the Great Lakes region, delivered DAP was quoted at $695-$710/st in Michigan.

MAP tightened to $685-$690/st FOB in the Eastern Cornbelt, with the low reported on the Illinois River. The Cincinnati market was pegged at $685-$690/st FOB for the latest offers, up from last week’s $675-$685/st FOB range. MAP pricing in the Great Lakes region included $725-$745/st FOB Michigan warehouses, up from the prior week’s $720-$730/st FOB.

Western Cornbelt:

DAP edged up to $650-$660/st FOB in the Western Cornbelt, with MAP reported at $670-$690/st FOB in the region. The lower end of both ranges was reported at St. Louis during the week.

California:

MAP was steady at $760-$765/st FOB or DEL level in California in late February.

Pacific Northwest:

MAP postings in the Pacific Northwest were reportedly up $5/st, to $750-$760/mt DEL, depending on location.

Western Canada:

MAP pricing was steady at C$1,110-$1,125/mt FOB and C$1,120-$1,130/mt DEL in Western Canada.

Morocco:

Moroccan netbacks from DAP sales into Europe increased by $5/mt, to $615/mt FOB, which reflects the high end of this week’s range. Netbacks from business into Latin America remained on par with previous Indian netbacks of $550/mt FOB. No further business was concluded ex-Tunisia this week.

Benelux:

DAP prices in Benelux and neighboring France and Germany have moved up on robust seasonal liquidity and snug supply in the Baltic. Sales of Russian material into Northwest Europe at €615/mt FCA brought the upper end of the DAP Benelux range to $660/mt FCA, while business in France was heard higher still at €620/mt FCA.

Demand is expected to remain robust in the coming weeks as those who had previously delayed purchases are now back in the market.

Baltic:

Baltic MAP prices saw a modest rebound compared to last week based on cheaper freight to Brazil, firming to $495-$510/mt FOB. No additional spot sales could be confirmed.

China:

The government of China has announced quotas for DAP and MAP exports through April 2025. The plan is to allow 4.5 million mt of DAP and 2.2 million mt of MAP to be shipped. Other phosphate products such as TSP will still be subject to the CIQ process, but will not be limited by the quota system.

Processing of export tons is slated to begin on March 15. Rumors began spreading at the end of the week that the CIQ process could take up to 40 days instead of the previously expected 10-15 days. There were also reports that some plants have secured assurances that their exports will be processed in 10 days.

One trader noted that such talk is normal when policy changes are about to occur. So far, he said, nothing is cast in stone.

The uncertainty of when tons can be exported has not stopped speculation on pricing. Once the DAP clearance process begins, sources expect the price to edge upward from its current estimated level in the $570s/mt FOB. If, however, the price moves up too fast, one trader said the Chinese government could be concerned that the higher price will filter back into the domestic market. If that happens, the export permissions might be throttled back.

The new quotas do not differ much from what China has exported in the past. If anything, said one trader, China seems to be favoring an increase in MAP exports. According to Trade Data Monitor, China exported 4.4 million mt of DAP and 1.5 million mt of MAP in April-December 2023.

How the total export quotas will be allocated to phosphate producers has yet to be determined. For now, sources speculate that larger plants with ready access to export terminals will receive the bulk of the export permits. Producers located further inland might not be granted export permission to keep their focus on the local market.

India: 

Buyers are waiting to see how the DAP export situation develops in China, though one trader said buyers may end up being disappointed. So far, no one expects an immediate flood of DAP to come out of China. A slower release of product will not crash the market, and one trader speculated that prices could actually edge higher.

The imported price of DAP remains at $595/mt CFR, well above the breakeven point under the Indian subsidy program. Without a dramatic price drop from a major supplier such as China, importing DAP to India will continue to be a money-losing proposition.

Brazil:

MAP imports gained $5/mt at the top of the range, settling at $560-$565/mt. While tight supply has pushed offers to $570-$580/mt CFR, declining grain prices kept buyers from accepting the higher prices, sources said.

Rondonópolis offers strengthened slightly during the week. Imported product – including material of Russian origin ­– was reported in the $670-$690/mt FOB ex-warehouse range, up $5/mt from the week-ago $665/mt FOB low, while others held offers at $700/mt FOB ex-warehouse.

Argentina:    

Trade Data Monitor put January MAP imports to Argentina at 14,000 mt, up from the 4,700 mt received in January 2023. China accounted for 68% of the total with 9,000 mt, followed by 4,500 mt from Russia.