All posts by hlancey@bloomberg.net

FEED Awarded for Fortescue Green Project

Hydrogen, News Briefs, Norway, Spain

Spain’s Técnicas Reunidas announced that it will execute a competitive Front End Engineering Design (FEED) for Fortescue’s hydro-powered green Holmaneset Project, which will be carried out on the coast of the Nordgulen fjord, located in western Norway.

The project includes a 300 MW hydrogen production plant, made up of multiple electrolyzer modules; an ecological ammonia synthesis plant with a nominal capacity of 675 mt/d; and ammonia storage facilities, water treatment and maritime infrastructure, including an import and export port and an undersea gas pipeline. Production will go to the Norwegian and European markets.

The European Union (EU) last month chose to significantly invest in the project, awarding it a grant to €203.8 million as part of its Innovation Fund. The grant will be paid on the completion of specified project milestones, with the first installment to be paid on financial close.

Ammonia

Ammonia, China, Eastern Cornbelt, Great Lakes, Market Watch, Northern Plains, Tampa, U.S. Gulf, Western Cornbelt

US Gulf/Tampa:

The Tampa ammonia price for February was concluded at $445/mt CFR, down $80/mt from January’s $525/mt contract. The settlement followed lower fill and prepay offers in the Cornbelt, as well as pressured prices in some offshore markets and news that production facilities in Europe may restart soon amid falling natural gas prices.

The Tampa reset pushed the NOLA ammonia barge market down to the $405/st FOB level for the latest indications.

Eastern Cornbelt:

Ammonia prices continued to land in the $550-$585/st FOB range for fill tons out of regional terminals in the Eastern Cornbelt, while spring prepay offers remained at the $590-$615/st FOB level in the region, with the low confirmed at Lima, Ohio.

Western Cornbelt:

Ammonia was steady at $550-$585/st FOB in Iowa and Nebraska for January-February fill tons, with spring prepay prices in the $580-$615/st FOB range in the Western Cornbelt, depending on location.

Northern Plains:

Ammonia in the Northern Plains continued to be reported in the $600-$640/st range FOB regional terminals for winter fill or spring prepay, with the availability of fill tons described as “extremely limited.” Delivered ammonia pricing in North Dakota was quoted at the $600/st level for fill and $625-$670/st DEL for spring prepay, depending on location.

Great Lakes:

Michigan sources reported ammonia offers at $535/st FOB Courtright, Ont., for prompt tons and $610/st FOB for prepay, while pricing at Huntington, Ind., was quoted at $585/st FOB for prompt and $615/st FOB for prepay.

China:

China will export ammonia when the global price is right and domestic demand is down, said one trader. Exports were 185,000 mt in 2023, Trade Data Monitor reported, off 22% from 238,000 mt in 2022. Vietnam led buyers with 52,000 mt in 2023, India took 50,000 mt, and Turkey bought 24,000 mt. December exports fell to 4,200 mt, a sharp drop from the 37,000 mt shipped in December 2022.

Ammonia imports picked up in 2023 as regional prices moved lower and the Chinese economy strengthened. Imports totaled 693,000 mt for the year, rising significantly from the year-ago 231,000 mt. December imports were 41,000 mt, up about 170% from 15,000 mt in December 2022.

Urea

Black Sea, Brazil, China, Eastern Canada, Eastern Cornbelt, Great Lakes, India, Indonesia, Market Watch, Middle East, Northeast, Northern Plains, U.S. Gulf, Urea, Western Cornbelt

US Gulf:

NOLA urea continued to climb, with reports of January trades at the $338-$345/st FOB level and February business concluded in the $337-$345/st FOB range, up from last week’s $325-$335/st FOB for January-February. March business was reportedly done at $347/st FOB early in the trading week.

Eastern Cornbelt:

Urea prices were working their way up in the Eastern Cornbelt, fueled by strengthening NOLA barge values. Sources pegged the regional market at $385-$400/st FOB, up from last week’s $370-$390/st FOB, with the low confirmed at Cincinnati, Ohio. Illinois River terminals were generally reported in the $390-$395/st FOB range during the week.

Western Cornbelt:

Urea firmed to $380-$410/st FOB in the Western Cornbelt, with the low confirmed at St. Louis, Mo., and the high in Iowa on a spot basis.

Northern Plains:

Sources reported firming prices for urea in late January. The St. Paul, Minn., market was quoted at the $390-$400/st FOB level, up from $385/st FOB at last report. Delivered pricing in North Dakota was up some $10-$20/st, to $430-$450/st for fill and $465-$490/st for prepay.

Great Lakes:

Urea jumped to $420-$425/st FOB and $440/st DEL in Michigan for January-February tons, up from recent quotes in the $385-$410/st FOB range.

Northeast:

The latest urea offers remained at $385-$395/st FOB in the Northeast, with the Fairless Hills, Pa., market pegged solidly at the $390/st FOB level for prompt tons.

Eastern Canada:

The urea market slipped to a broad C$645-$725/mt FOB in Eastern Canada, depending on location, down from prior low of C$680/mt FOB.

India: 

There has been no talk of a new tender out of India, and sources have indicated that nothing will happen until mid-February at the earliest. Traders previously said that buying houses in India will want a better idea of how subsidies are treated in the 2024/25 budget before another tender is called.

The interim budget will be released on Feb. 1, according to local media reports. So far, the government appears ready to reduce its allotments for fertilizer subsidies, from roughly Rs2 trillion ($24 billion) in the current budget to Rs1.75 trillion ($21 billion) for the fiscal year starting April 1. The government will finalize the budget following elections in April and May.

Black Sea:     

Black Sea urea prices have moved up to $280-$310/mt FOB, in line with reports of stronger prices from North Africa and Southeast Asia. Sources also reported multiple freight inquiries for vessels to move urea from the Black Sea to Romania, Turkey, and Belgium. These are in addition to inquiries related to the Indian tender.

Sources reported granular urea from Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan going for $360-$380/mt FOB from western Black Sea ports. Urea coming from Poti is reportedly going for $370/mt FOB.

More prilled urea from Russia may become available after the 400,000 mt committed to cover awards from the Indian tender are shipped, according to circulating reports, as holders of Russian product appear willing to liquidate their positions. Such a move, said one trader, could affect North African prices, which have depended on a stronger European market.

Indonesia:     

The limited supply of urea in Southeast Asia has pushed up both prices and pricing expectations. Brunei Fertilizer Ind. (BFI) closed a deal with Koch at $380/mt FOB for a cargo reportedly bound for Australia, a significant increase from a previous sale for late-January shipment priced slightly under $340/mt FOB.

The absence of exports from Indonesia, Malaysia, and China allowed for the higher prices in the BFI deal, sources said. January and February are generally a weak time for exports from Indonesia, as the government typically discourages exports during these months to allow for a plentiful supply in the domestic market. Sources said the government may soon issue export permits for 2024, however. Even if the permits are issued soon, sources believe the first shipments may not occur until March.

Players expect product shortages from Malaysia due to turnarounds at manufacturing facilities. The Bintulu plant is already down and is not expected to return to production until the end of February. The Gurun plant is expected to close on Feb. 1 and stay down into mid-March.

When Indonesia does reenter the market, sources said the $380/mt FOB achieved by BFI could act as a benchmark for Indonesia’s first auction. However, BFI was only able to achieve that price because of the absence of all other major producers in the area, sources argued. The return of Indonesia’s plentiful supply of urea to the market could push prices down.

Middle East: 

Reports of last-done business left the price range at $355-$360/mt FOB, though producers argue that level should be in the mid-$370s/mt FOB based on the estimated netback from recent sales into Australia.

Further backing their views are reports that the paper market has firmed to $365-$380/mt FOB for February and $370-$380/mt FOB for March. One trader noted that any current price above $360/mt FOB represents a premium paid for product guaranteed at a specific time, rather than under general market conditions.

Egyptian producers had a good week. After closing the prior week’s business at a high of $375/mt FOB, sellers quickly registered new deals at $380/mt FOB, and at least three producers were able to move prices up a few dollars with each subsequent deal. The latest price, achieved on a sale of 6,000 mt by KIMA for February shipment, was reported at $400/mt FOB as Green Markets went to press on Jan. 26.

Company Quantity (mt) $/mt FOB
AlexFert 6,000 387.00
5,000 395.00
Helwan 8,000 380.00
KIMA 10,000 380.00
Unconfirmed 390.00
6,000 400.00
MOPCO 6,000 384.00
6,000 385.00

The week’s sales outstripped expectations in the paper market. February paper was put at $383-$395/mt FOB, while March shipments tracked at $375-$385/mt FOB. The orders placed with Egyptian producers for February were reflected by numerous inquiries made into the freight market, with destinations including Italy, Romania, Djibouti, Turkey, Bulgaria, Portugal, Spain, and Greece.

Reports of additional Russian material becoming available to buyers in southern Europe and Turkey could put pressure on prices from Egypt and other North African suppliers. Some holders of Russian material could offer their product at dramatically lower prices just to clear their inventories, sources said. Buyers in the Western part of the Black Sea, such as Turkey, Romania, and Bulgaria, could receive product from Russian ports in the far east of the Black Sea, outside of the current war zone.

China:

Urea exports from China remain nonexistent and are expected to remain so into April, sources said. The lack of opportunities for price discovery left players looking at domestic ex-factory prices as a point of reference for when talks begin late in the first quarter. At the end of the week, rumors circulated that some small urea exports might be allowed in March, one month ahead of the original plan.

Even with the imposition of export restrictions late in 2023, urea exports from China were up in 2023 compared to 2022. Trade Data Monitor reported urea shipments totaling 4.3 million mt for the year, an increase of 40% on the 2.9 million mt exported in 2022. India took 1.9 million mt, followed by South Korea with 416,000 mt.

The December export numbers showed the initial impact of China’s restrictions on urea exports. China sent 562,000 mt and 532,000 mt of urea offshore in December 2021 and 2022, respectively, but shipped just 344,000 mt in December 2023, a 35% decline from one year earlier. India took 316,000 mt for the month.

Brazil:

Urea prices continued to press higher in Brazil, climbing to $365-$375/mt CFR from last week’s $355-$360/mt CFR. Offer levels climbed in step with rising prices reported from originating markets, with new offers noted at $380-$390/mt CFR on Jan. 25.

Pricing also firmed at Rondonópolis, with offers moving up to $510-$535/mt FOB ex-warehouse, though no large sales were reported. Some suppliers pulled their offer lists and were noted adjusting prices through the end of the week.Rural growers were said to remain focused on the 2023/24 soybean crop.

UAN

Eastern Canada, Eastern Cornbelt, Great Lakes, Market Watch, Northeast, Northern Plains, U.S. Gulf, UAN, Western Cornbelt

US Gulf:

UAN barges remained at $235-$240/st ($7.34-$7.50/unit) FOB NOLA, based on delivered barge prices and upriver terminal pricing.

Eastern Cornbelt:

UAN-32 in the Eastern Cornbelt was unchanged at $275-$300/st ($8.59-$9.38/unit) FOB regional terminals, depending on location and time of shipment, with the low reported at Mount Vernon, Ind., for prompt tons and the high out of Illinois River terminals for spring material.

The Cincinnati UAN-32 market remained at $280-$285/st ($8.75-$8.91/unit) FOB for January-February, with the UAN-28 market quoted at the $250/st ($8.93/unit) FOB level for prompt tons. March-April pricing for UAN-32 was reported at $300/st ($9.38/unit) FOB Cincinnati.

Western Cornbelt:

The UAN-32 market was unchanged at $260-$285/st ($8.13-$8.91/unit) FOB in the Western Cornbelt, with the low reported at Port Neal, Iowa, for 1Q tons. The St. Louis market remained at $275/st ($8.59/unit) FOB for January pull.

In the Southern Plains, the Verdigris, Okla., UAN-32 market was pegged at $255/st ($7.97/unit) FOB for January-February and $270/st ($8.44/unit) FOB for March-April, with Woodward, Okla., pricing reported at the $260/st ($8.13/unit) FOB level for January-February.

Northern Plains:

The UAN-32 market remained at $295-$310/st ($9.22-$9.69/unit) FOB terminals in Minnesota, with the low for January-February and the high for 2Q tons. UAN-28 was quoted at the $315/st ($11.25/unit) DEL level in the Northern Plains for tons shipped from Canada.

Great Lakes:

The UAN-28 market was up slightly in the Great Lakes region, with the latest offers reported at $262-$272/st ($9.36-$9.71/unit) FOB Michigan terminals for prompt tons and up to $297/st ($10.61/unit) FOB for prepay.

Northeast:

The UAN-32 market was unchanged at the $265/st ($8.28/unit) level FOB Fairless Hills and Baltimore, Md., for 1Q tons, with 2Q pricing reported at the $285/st ($8.91/unit) FOB mark. UAN-32 out of terminals in upstate New York was steady at $320/st ($10.00/unit) FOB for the latest offers.

The 28-0-0-5S market remained at $277/st FOB Baltimore in late January, with 27-0-0-3S pegged at $246/st FOB Baltimore.

Eastern Canada:

UAN pricing in Eastern Canada was down slightly from last report, with recent offers reported at C$509/mt (C$15.91/unit) FOB for UAN-32 and C$460/mt (C$16.43/unit) FOB for UAN-28.

Ammonium Sulfate

Ammonium Sulfate, Brazil, China, Eastern Canada, Eastern Cornbelt, Great Lakes, Market Watch, Northeast, Northern Plains, U.S. Gulf, Western Cornbelt

US Gulf:

The latest NOLA ammonium sulfate business continued to be reported at the $265/st FOB level, unchanged from the prior week.

Eastern Cornbelt:

Granular ammonium sulfate slipped to $305-$330/st FOB in the Eastern Cornbelt, down slightly from last week’s $310-$330/st FOB range, with the low confirmed out of Illinois River terminals for January-February tons and the high reported in Ohio.

Western Cornbelt:

The granular ammonium sulfate market remained in a broad range at $295-$330/st FOB in the Western Cornbelt, with the low at St. Louis and the high in Iowa on a spot basis. In the Southern Plains, recent Houston, Texas, business was reported as low as $275/st FOB.

Northern Plains:

The granular ammonium sulfate market was reported at $320-$340/st FOB and $330-$345/st DEL in the Northern Plains.

Great Lakes:

Ammonium sulfate was quoted at $320-$345/st FOB in the Great Lakes region, with delivered pricing reported at the $350/st level in Michigan.

Northeast:

Granular ammonium sulfate pricing in the Northeast remained at $340/st FOB and $340-$350/st DEL.

Eastern Canada:

The ammonium sulfate market in Eastern Canada was unchanged at C$530-$575/mt FOB in late January.

China:

Prices continued to firm during the week. While a handful of opportunistic purchases were reportedly made early in the week at sub-$150/mt FOB levels, pricing discussions for caprolactam grade amsul moved firmly to $150-$155/mt FOB by the end of the week.

The upward push is coming from both domestic and offshore demand. Sources said Chinese buyers are stepping up their purchases. At the same time, Southeast Asian buyers are looking at amsul to replace the limited amount of urea available in the region.

There were also reports that Turkish buyers are stepping up their inquiries for Chinese amsul. In the past such inquiries would not have been unusual. However, any product heading to Turkey from China must pass through the war-torn Red Sea and Gulf of Aden. So far, said sources, the only problem shippers have experienced with cargoes bound for Turkey are the higher insurance rates imposed on vessels passing through the region.

Ammonium sulfate exports from China firmed 12% in 2023, according to Trade Data Monitor, to 14 million mt from 12 million mt in 2022, with three countries taking just over 50% of the year’s exports. Brazil topped the buyer list with 5 million mt, Myanmar bought 1.5 million mt, and Vietnam received 873,000 mt.

Brazil:

Brazil ammonium sulfate imports moved up to $175-$180/mt CFR, lifting $5/mt at the bottom of the range. Players expect further increases ahead, reflecting rising FOB prices in China. Rondonópolis pricing firmed to $300-$330/mt FOB ex-warehouse, up from last week’s $290-$330/mt FOB.

DAP/MAP

Brazil, Central Florida, China, DAP/MAP, Eastern Canada, Eastern Cornbelt, Great Lakes, India, Market Watch, Northeast, Northern Plains, U.S. Exports, U.S. Gulf, Western Cornbelt

Central Florida:

Central Florida DAP prices increased to $630/st FOB from last week’s $610/st FOB. MAP trucks firmed $15/st, to $655/st FOB from $640/st FOB in the prior report. North Florida MAP postings continued at $640/st FOB.

US Gulf:

NOLA DAP barges softened to $590-$605/st FOB in a week of light trading, off from $600-$615/st FOB at last report, while a first-half March barge was reported trading down to $586/st FOB. MAP barges fell $5/st at the bottom of the range, to $620-$630/st FOB from last week’s $625-$630/st FOB.

US Exports:

DAP and MAP exports from the US Gulf continued at $570/mt FOB for the last reported business.

Eastern Cornbelt:

DAP was down slightly, to $635-$660/st FOB in the Eastern Cornbelt, with the low reported out of spot Illinois River terminals. MAP was quoted in the $680-$695/st FOB range in the region, with the low again confirmed in Illinois. The Cincinnati market was quoted solidly at the $650/st FOB level for DAP and $685/st FOB for MAP.

Western Cornbelt:

DAP was reported at $635-$650/st FOB in the Western Cornbelt, with the low confirmed at St. Louis. MAP remained at $675-$690/st FOB in the region, with the high reported in Iowa and the low at St. Louis.

Northern Plains:

Tight supply pushed DAP and MAP prices higher in the Northern Plains, with the latest St. Paul offers pegged at $660/st FOB for DAP and $720/st FOB for MAP, up from the previous $655/st FOB and $710/st FOB levels, respectively.

Great Lakes:

MAP was pegged at a firm $715-$725/st FOB in the Great Lakes region, with limited DAP offers reported at the $675-$685/st FOB level.

Northeast:

The DAP and MAP markets at East Liverpool, Ohio, were up roughly $10/st from last report, with DAP pegged at the $665/st FOB level and MAP at $700/st FOB. No current MAP offers were confirmed at Fairless Hills in late January.

Eastern Canada:

Phosphate prices were steady in Eastern Canada. The latest MAP offers were reported at C$985-$993/mt FOB in the region, with DAP at C$935/mt FOB Montreal.

India: 

Buyers pinned hopes for larger DAP subsidies in the 2024/25 budget on how the government will allocate the reduced subsidies proposed under the new budget. The proposal indicated a drop in total subsidies from the current Rs2 trillion ($24 billion) to about Rs1.75 trillion ($21 billion) in the new budget.

The current price of DAP into India remains in the upper-$590s/mt CFR. However, the best price that sellers can expect to get in the country is equivalent to $530-$550/mt CFR. The current subsidy rate does not make up for the losses incurred, said one trader.

Demand is waning for the current season, giving importers the opportunity to lobby the government for more subsidies before the next seasonal buying campaigns begin.

China:

No phosphate exports from China are expected through February. Unlike urea, however, sources said they expect to see some DAP exports in March. So far, said one trader, this expectation amounts to positive thinking, and is based on talks with Chinese traders and producers who have discussed returning to the global market before the end of the first quarter.

DAP exports firmed 40% in 2023, Trade Data Monitor reported, to 5 million mt from the year-ago 3.6 million mt. India accounted for 60% of the exports, taking 3 million mt, while Vietnam received 398,000 mt. DAP shipments totaled 367,000 mt in December, a 45% increase on the 253,000 mt reported in December 2022.

2023 MAP exports held steady year-over-year at 2 million mt. Brazil led buyers with 730,000 mt, followed by Argentina with 243,000 mt and Australia with 224,000 mt.

Brazil:

Landed MAP prices softened to $550-$565/mt CFR in Brazil, falling from $550-$570/mt CFR at last report, while inland deals and NPs were reported closer to $540/mt CFR.

Aggressive new offers at Rondonópolis widened the weekly range to $680-$695/mt FOB, a $10/mt decline from the week-ago $690/mt low. Offers for second-quarter delivery were reported up to $700/mt FOB, though no trades were confirmed at that level.

Demand remains minimal, sources said, and reduced soybean production continues to be anticipated, particularly in the northern areas of Mato Grosso state. Expectations of a weak harvest, combined with low soybean prices on the Chicago exchanges, have complicated purchases for the 2024/25 harvest.

TSP

Brazil, Eastern Cornbelt, Great Lakes, Market Watch, Triple Superphosphate, U.S. Gulf, Western Cornbelt

US Gulf:

NOLA TSP barges moved slightly higher, to $440-$465/st FOB from the week-ago $440-$460/st FOB.

Eastern Cornbelt:

TSP remained at $515-$535/st FOB in the Eastern Cornbelt, with the low reported at Cincinnati.

Western Cornbelt:

TSP was steady at $505-$535/st FOB in the Western Cornbelt, with the low reported at St. Louis for February tons.

Great Lakes:

TSP offers were quoted at $565/st DEL in Michigan in late January.

Brazil:

TSP prices slid to $425-$430/mt CFR in Brazil, off from last week’s $430-$440/mt CFR. Rondonópolis prices narrowed to $520-$540/mt FOB ex-warehouse, within the prior $520-$545/mt FOB range.

SSP

Brazil, Market Watch, SSP

Brazil:

SSP 19-21 prices moved higher in Brazil, rising to $200-$220/mt CFR from the week-ago $195-$205/mt CFR. Players attributed the increase to firmer prices out of Egypt and forward deals for product of Chinese origin, which continues to face export restrictions.

Prices for SSP 19-21 at Rondonópolis slipped to $320-$345/mt FOB ex-warehouse, falling $5/mt from $325-$340/mt FOB at last report. SSP-23 offers continued to be referenced at $370-$375/mt FOB.

Phosphoric Acid

Eastern Cornbelt, Great Lakes, Market Watch, Northern Plains, Phosphoric Acid, Western Cornbelt

Eastern Cornbelt:

January phosphoric acid postings were steady at $11.90/unit rail-DEL in the Eastern Cornbelt.

Western Cornbelt:

The phos acid market was unchanged at $11.90/unit rail-DEL in the region for January.

Northern Plains:

Phos acid pricing remained at $11.90/unit rail-DEL for January shipments in the Northern Plains.

Great Lakes:

Phos acid was pegged at $11.90/unit rail-DEL for January shipments in the Great Lakes region.