All posts by hlancey@bloomberg.net

Ammonia

Ammonia, Brazil, California, Eastern Cornbelt, Market Watch, North Africa, Northwestern Europe, Pacific N.W., Tampa, U.S. Gulf, Western Canada, Western Cornbelt

US Gulf/Tampa:

It was still early for indications on Tampa ammonia for December. The November Tampa price settled at $625/mt CFR, up from October’s $575/mt.

Eastern Cornbelt:

With fall application now underway in the region, ammonia prices remained at $725-$750/st FOB regional terminals in Illinois and Indiana, depending on location and producer. Nutrien’s reference price FOB Lima, Ohio, was reported at the $750/st FOB level in early November.

Western Cornbelt:

The ammonia market remained at $715-$725/st FOB in the Western Cornbelt, with the low in Nebraska and the high in Iowa and Missouri.

California:

Ammonia prices were unchanged at $740/st DEL for anhydrous in California, with aqua ammonia postings remaining at $200/st FOB Stockton and $210/st FOB Sycamore.

Pacific Northwest:

Ammonia prices were steady in the $830-$850/st FOB range in the Pacific Northwest, depending on location, with aqua ammonia quoted at $220/st FOB. Sources reported no movement of either product in early November.

Western Canada:

No current ammonia offers were confirmed in Western Canada. The last reported prices were at the C$1,200/mt FOB and C$1,295/mt DEL levels for fall tons.

Northwest Europe:  

Sources said the ammonia market has moved firmly to $650/mt CFR. There are reports that a deal with EuroChem came in at $675/mt CFR, however, while others secured tons at the lower level.

The higher price for the EuroChem ammonia is most likely due to the limited number of companies that deal with EuroChem, sources said. While the sanctions placed on Russian companies by the US and EU do allow exemptions for businesses dealing in foodstuffs and fertilizers, navigating the paperwork is complicated. Many companies avoid deals with Russian companies on the off chance that a small error could trigger an investigation into sanctions violations, sources said.

North Africa:

Sorfert in Algeria has reportedly closed a deal at $610/mt FOB. If confirmed, the transaction would add further upward pressure to the Northwest Europe ammonia price.

The temporary cutback in natural gas availability imposed by the Egyptian government apparently did not have a major impact on nitrogen producers. The current bearish nature of the nitrogen market should encourage some producers to ease off from ramping up full production, one trader said.

Brazil:

Ammonia imports to Brazil totaled 246,000 mt in January-October, Trade Data Monitor reported, a 33% decline from the year-ago 367,000 mt. October imports were 22,000 mt, down 56% from the 49,000 mt received in October 2022.

Trinidad and Tobago supplied all of the October tonnage, as well as 91% of Brazil’s ammonia imports through the first 10 months of the year.

Urea

Bangladesh, Black Sea, Brazil, California, China, Eastern Cornbelt, ethiopia, India, Indonesia, Market Watch, Middle East, Pacific N.W., U.S. Gulf, Urea, Western Canada, Western Cornbelt

US Gulf:

NOLA urea fell to $342-$350/st for limited November and first-half December trades, down from last week’s $355-$365/st FOB range. Full December business was reported at $340-$345/st FOB.

Eastern Cornbelt:

Urea remained at $410-$425/st FOB in the Eastern Cornbelt, with the Cincinnati, Ohio, market quoted at the lower end of the range. Pricing in the Northeast was reported at $440/st FOB Fairless Hills, Pa., for November-December, down another $20/st from last week.

Western Cornbelt:

Urea remained under pressure in the Western Cornbelt, with the St. Louis, Mo., market slipping to $395-$400/st FOB from last week’s $405-$410/st range. The upper end of the range continued to be reported at the $440-$450/st FOB level in Iowa.

California:

Granular urea pricing in California reportedly dropped to $530-$535/st FOB Stockton, down from the prior $535-$550/st FOB range, with delivered urea also lower at $500-$510/st in the state. Prilled urea fell to $600/st FOB San Diego, down $20/st from last report.

Pacific Northwest:

Urea prices were softening in the Pacific Northwest. The market was quoted at $475/st FOB Rivergate, Ore., $480/st FOB Aurora, Ore., and $470-$494/st DEL in the region, down from the previous $495-$500/st FOB and $523-$545/st DEL ranges.

Western Canada:

The urea market tightened to C$750-$760/mt DEL for the latest offers in Western Canada, with terminal prices steady at the C$740/mt FOB mark.

India: 

Award winners in the Indian Potash Ltd. (IPL) tender wasted no time in securing vessels to fulfill their contracts. Sources reported that about 1 million mt of the total 1.7 million mt awarded in the tender had been nominated to at least 20 ships for loading ahead of the tender’s Dec. 20 shipping deadline.

Source Est. Ship Nominations
Oman 5
Qatar 2
Russia 7
Indonesia 4
Egypt 1
Algeria 1

More product from Oman is expected to be added to the list, while another 4-6 cargoes are anticipated from China. SABIC and the UAE may also end up tossing in one shipment each, sources said.

The take from the IPL tender and the rapid response by award winners in getting vessels lined up has made the urea supply issue in India much easier to handle. Sources said another tender may not need to be called until late December or early January 2024.

Black Sea:     

Black Sea urea was reported at a solid $350/mt FOB for the week.

Bangladesh:  

Bangladesh’s long-awaited Ghorasal Polash Urea Fertilizer plant will be dedicated on Nov. 12, local media reported. The facility has a nameplate production rate of 1 million mt/y.

The facility, built on the space of two older urea production plants, will ease the pressure on Bangladesh to import urea. According to the reports, the facility will not only produce urea, but will also bag the product to be loaded onto trucks and railcars for rapid domestic distribution.

Indonesia:     

Pupuk was able to raise its prilled urea price in a new selling tender this week. The holding company offered 20,000 mt of prilled urea, grabbing a high price of $387.50/mt FOB for 5,000 mt, while other bids were reported in the $360s/mt FOB. Pupuk’s previous tender showed a price for prills at $379.50/mt FOB.

The small lot will reportedly end up in the Philippines. Additional deals might still be done to move more product, but in the current bear market, said one trader, Pupuk will most likely have to wait for the next tender and then accept lower prices. Sources speculated that another tender will be held next week.

Previous sales of prilled and granular urea include at least four cargoes heading to India to cover awards in the IPL tender.

Middle East: 

With seven vessels already nominated to load product for the IPL/India tender and more expected soon, sources said producers are not anxious to talk with spot buyers.

In addition to the confirmed loadings in Oman and Qatar, SABIC and the UAE may also come in with tons for the tender, players noted. All told, sources speculated that 500,000 mt from the Arab Gulf could be sent to India under the IPL tender.

Rumors abounded that a deal was done at $370/mt FOB, but sources said the price seems to be only talk so far. If a deal was done at that level, the price would be about $18/mt below the estimated netback from the IPL tender.

Iranian producers continue to argue for $350/mt FOB, and buyers continue to counter with $340/mt FOB. No new deals have concluded so far, sources reported, and every recent selling tender announced by Iran has been scrapped when bids failed to reach the seller’s price target.

Egyptian producers have reportedly returned to normal production following a temporary 30% reduction in available natural gas, and sources said most plants had nearly returned to full-rated production levels by the end of the week. The price of the product has become the new issue.

Sources said producers are digging in their heels at $400/mt FOB, but with no takers. At the same time, buyers are looking at the low- to mid-$390s/mt FOB.

Earlier reports that new deals were concluded with Turkey seem premature. Buyers are now pushing for prices equivalent to $380-$385/mt FOB, with producers continuing to shoot for $400/mt FOB. So far there have been no agreements.

Pressure is mounting for deals into Europe at $390-$395/mt FOB, while producers again try to hold the line at $400/mt FOB. There were reports that one producer had offered at $395/mt FOB, with no takers. The lack of any new business leaves the price at the last-done $390-$410/mt FOB level.

There is speculation that Egyptian material will again play a dominant role in the upcoming Ethiopian Agricultural Business Corporation (EABC) tender, set to close on Nov. 14. Egypt has sent 402,000 mt to Ethiopia under previous tenders for the year so far, accounting for 66% of the 608,000 mt received by Ethiopia during the period.

Algerian producer AOA will reportedly provide one cargo of material to cover an award in the IPL/India tender. There are also reports that numerous smaller lots of 6,000-10,000 mt will be made available to European buyers once prices become settled.

Ethiopia:

A urea tender for 562,000 mt sponsored by EABC will close on Nov. 14, with delivery of the material to be spread through mid-2024. In the past, EABC has received monthly shipments of at least two cargoes of 50,000 mt each.

Urea imports totaled 608,000 mt in January-October, Trade Data Monitor reported, rising from the year-ago 456,000 mt. Egypt accounted for 66% of the year-to-date imports, sending 402,000 mt, followed by 108,000 mt from Oman. Ethiopia received 51,000 mt in October – all from Egypt – compared to zero imports in October 2022.

China:

Following a late-week meeting of the National Development and Reform Commission, export inspections in China were ordered to an immediate halt, sources said. Exports must cease in order to protect the domestic market, the Commission reportedly said.

The new action effectively placed a hold on new inspections for export. While sources said the order would not impact the tons already cleared for offshore sales, some questioned whether the new rule would impact tons that had already been purchased but not yet cleared. The consensus was that unless an order had been fully vetted and granted a certificate to export, the material will stay in China.

The new rule will remain in place for the next 60 days, following a general announcement that new exports should be stopped for the rest of the year. Some traders who have made handshake agreements with producers for tons not yet cleared said that if they want the material, they may have to wait out the 60-day period. Most said they have already begun to look elsewhere.

Some traders initially hoped the export ban would exempt small lots of 6,000-10,000 mt. This hope was based on past practices that quickly cleared these smaller lots for export, but delayed or stopped larger shipments.

The move to limit exports once again followed reports of rising domestic prices. The government has previously limited exports so that the tonnage produced in the country would be used to build reserves in domestic warehouses and push down the price to farmers. Sources said that most of the urea plants are operating at close to their rated levels, meaning that without exports, domestic supplies will rapidly build up.

Brazil:

Urea prices in Brazil declined to $365-$380/mt CFR from the previous week’s $385-$400/mt CFR. Bids were reported in the $350-$360/mt CFR range, but with no transactions confirmed.

Nitrogen demand remained weak at Rondonópolis as farmers prioritized soybean planting due to the lack of rains. Offers were noted at $520-$535/mt FOB ex-warehouse, following the import market lower. The lack of buyer interest has prevented further price declines, as suppliers are only open to negotiating against firm bids.

January-October urea imports were noted at 5.5 million mt, according to Trade Data Monitor,down slightly from the 5.7 million mt received through the same period of 2022. October imports were counted at 783,000 mt, up 31% from 598,000 mt last October.

UAN

California, Eastern Cornbelt, Market Watch, Pacific N.W., U.S. Gulf, UAN, Western Canada, Western Cornbelt

US Gulf:

No new NOLA UAN trades were reported during the week, leaving the last-done business at the $255-$265/st ($7.97-$8.28/unit) FOB level.

Eastern Cornbelt:

The UAN-32 market was pegged at $295-$310/st ($9.22-$9.69/unit) FOB in the Eastern Cornbelt for November-January tons.

The latest UAN-28 offers FOB Cincinnati were reported at $260-$270/st ($9.29-$9.64/unit) for November-December, $263-$272/st ($9.39-$9.71/unit) for 1Q, and $275-$280/st ($9.82-$10.00/unit) for 2Q shipments.

Western Cornbelt:

UAN-32 was unchanged at $295-$320/st ($9.22-$10.00/unit) FOB terminals in the Western Cornbelt, depending on location, with the high confirmed in Iowa. The St. Louis market was reported at $295-$310/st ($9.22-$9.69/unit) during the week, depending on supplier and time of shipment.

California:

UAN-32 remained at $350/st ($10.94/unit) FOB Stockton, with rail-DEL business quoted in the $360-$370/st ($11.25-$11.56/unit) range in California.

Pacific Northwest:

UAN-32 pricing in the Pacific Northwest remained at $370/st ($11.56/unit) FOB Kennewick, Wash., and $348-$350/st ($10.88-$10.94/unit) rail-DEL.

Western Canada:

UAN-28 in Western Canada slipped to C$465-$480/mt (C$16.61-17.14/unit) DEL, with the low reported for January-February offers.

Ammonium Sulfate

Ammonium Sulfate, Brazil, California, China, Eastern Cornbelt, Market Watch, Pacific N.W., U.S. Gulf, Western Canada, Western Cornbelt

US Gulf:

With no new business to test the market, NOLA ammonium sulfate prices remained at $270-$275/st FOB for the last indications.

Eastern Cornbelt:

Granular ammonium sulfate pricing in the Eastern Cornbelt was unchanged at $310-$345/st FOB, with the low confirmed at river terminals in Illinois and the high at inland warehouses. The Cincinnati market ranged broadly at $315-$335/st FOB in early November.

Western Cornbelt:

The granular ammonium sulfate market was pegged at $300-$335/st FOB in the Western Cornbelt, with the low reported at St. Louis and the high in Iowa.

California:

The ammonium sulfate market in California widened to $320-$350/st FOB and $350/st DEL for the latest offers, depending on grade and location, with the low reported at Lathrop, Woodland, and Richvale. The latest posting FOB Helm remained at the $330/st FOB level in early November.

Pacific Northwest:

The ammonium sulfate market was quoted at $285-$330/st FOB or DEL in the region for the latest offers, with the low for standard grade and the high for granular.

Western Canada:

Ammonium sulfate prices remained at C$480-$495/mt DEL in Western Canada for November-January, with postings reported as high as C$505/mt DEL in the region.

China:

Prices in China continued to decline due to pressure from softer deals into Latin America and Southeast Asia. The Brazilian price for standard amsul dropped to $185-$205/mt CFR from $205-$215/mt CFR. At the same time, a recent caprolactam grade deal into the Philippines showed a netback of $135/mt FOB.

Producers confirmed prices have come off this week, citing a bulk price of $145/mt FOB for caprolactam grade amsul. Sources said this is the level producers are trying to keep, but as shown in the Philippines, are unable to hold.

TCC scrapped a large part of a 20,000 mt selling tender during the week. The producer was able to move 9,000 mt at $150/mt FOB, while all other offers were noted in the $130s/mt FOB. The buyer was reportedly desperate for material and willing to accept the above-market price.

Brazil:

Ammonium sulfate imports fell to $185-$205/mt CFR from the week-ago $205-$215/mt CFR. Bidding noted around $180/mt CFR failed to transact, players said. Confirmed offers in Rondonópolis softened to a low of $325/mt FOB ex-warehouse on limited availability, dragging the range to $325-$340/mt FOB.

Brazil imported 3.8 million mt of ammonium sulfate in January-October, according to Trade Data Monitor, steady from one year earlier. Imports totaled 938,000 mt in October, a 43% increase from 658,000 mt in October 2022. China was Brazil’s primary supplier, sending 3.5 million mt during the first 10 months of the year, as well as 914,000 mt in October.

DAP/MAP

Brazil, California, Central Florida, China, DAP/MAP, Eastern Cornbelt, India, Market Watch, Pacific N.W., U.S. Exports, U.S. Gulf, Western Cornbelt

Central Florida:

Central Florida DAP prices fell $10/mt at the top range, to $530-$550/st FOB from $530-$560/st FOB at last report. MAP trucks were quoted at $630-$650/st FOB. White Springs, Fla., MAP postings were unchanged at $625/st FOB.

US Gulf:

NOLA DAP barges were reported at $525-$540/st FOB in a thinly traded market, rising from the previous $520-$540/st FOB, while upriver barges and warehouse tons were priced at a $550/st FOB NOLA-equivalent. March 2024 barge transactions were noted in the $515-$520/st FOB range.

Availability of NOLA MAP barges remained limited, with no trades confirmed for the week. Offers were reported in the $600-$630/st FOB range, down from last week’s $600-$640/st FOB, while warehouse prices and upriver barges carried pricing equivalent to $650/st FOB NOLA.

US Exports:

Sources reported no new DAP and MAP export transactions, leaving prices unchanged at $570/mt FOB.

Eastern Cornbelt:

DAP was steady at $590-$605/st FOB in the Eastern Cornbelt, with Cincinnati pricing quoted at the $600-$605/st FOB level. MAP was pegged at $695-$715/st FOB in the region, with the Cincinnati market reported at $700-$705/st FOB in early November.

Western Cornbelt:

DAP remained at $590-$610/st FOB in the Western Cornbelt, with the St. Louis market quoted at the $590-$600/st FOB level. MAP was reported at $685-$720/st FOB in the region, with the low at St. Louis and the high confirmed in Iowa on a spot basis.

California:

MAP pricing remained at a firm $750/st FOB or DEL in California in early November.

Pacific Northwest:

MAP was quoted at $720-$740/st FOB or DEL for prompt tons in the Pacific Northwest in early November. Reports of business at the $695-$705/st DEL level were also confirmed for 1Q tons.

Western Canada:

MAP inched up to C$1,070/mt FOB for December-January tons in Western Canada, with delivered pricing pegged in the C$1,050-$1,060/mt range.

China:

All phosphate-related fertilizer exports are now halted in China unless permission to export has already been granted. The action is similar to the restrictions on urea exports.

The policy replaces the previous quota system that allowed limited exports through the end of the year. Tonnage that remains under the inspection process but has not yet been approved for export will not be allowed to be shipped.

There were no comments from traders on how the move will affect the global price of DAP. India has slowed its DAP import demands, as have other regional buyers. The lack of any major demand is leaving the price at China in the upper-$560s/mt FOB. Even if producers offered lower prices or more product, one trader noted, finding the product a home in the global market would be difficult for the next few months.

India: 

Sources said the Indian DAP import season is pretty well done. No new purchases are expected as buyers wait to receive previously ordered tons, leaving prices in the upper-$580s/mt CFR.

The price of imports is running up against a reduction in subsidies that sets the country’s highest price at $485/mt CFR. Importers looking to top off their orders are now said to be bidding at this level, which is more than $100/mt off the current price, with no takers from either Chinese or Arab suppliers.

Brazil:

Landed MAP prices firmed slightly due to thin supply, to $560-$565/mt CFR from last week’s $555-$560/mt CFR. Forward offers were quoted at $580-$590/mt CFR.

MAP pricing continued to show strength at Rondonópolis, with most indications pushing above $700/mt FOB ex-warehouse. A handful of lower offers remained available, however, placing the market at $690-$710/mt FOB.

MAP imports firmed 18% in January-October, Trade Data Monitor reported, to 4.3 million mtfrom the year-ago 3.6 million mt. Russia sent 2 million mt, followed by Morocco with 1.3 million mt. October imports were 467,000 mt, up from the 261,000 mt received in October 2022. Morocco sent 217,000 mt for the month, while Russia added 116,000 mt.

TSP

Brazil, Eastern Cornbelt, Market Watch, Triple Superphosphate, U.S. Gulf, Western Cornbelt

US Gulf:

NOLA TSP barges moved marginally higher, to $460-$470/st FOB from the prior week’s $460-$465/st FOB.

Eastern Cornbelt:

The TSP market was unchanged at $525-$540/st FOB in the Eastern Cornbelt for November tons, depending on location. “Supply has been very tight for most of the season, with sales mostly at $530/st FOB,” reported one regional contact.

Western Cornbelt:

TSP was quoted at $510-$530/st FOB in the Western Cornbelt, with the low reported at St. Louis following the recent arrival of some late barges.

Brazil:

TSP imports were unchanged at $430-$440/mt CFR, while the Rondonópolis market moved to $535/mt FOB ex-warehouse amid a slow trading week, tightening from $530-$565/mt FOB last week.

SSP

Brazil, Market Watch, SSP

Brazil:

Prices for SSP 19-21 fell 3.5% in Brazil, to $185-$215/mt CFR from the prior week’s $190-$225/mt CFR, depending on quality and nutrient content. Rondonópolis prices fell $5/mt at the high end, to $340-$355/mt FOB ex-warehouse, mirroring declines seen in other regions of Brazil.

Phosphoric Acid

California, Eastern Cornbelt, Market Watch, Pacific N.W., Phosphoric Acid, Western Cornbelt

Eastern Cornbelt:

November phosphoric acid postings in the Eastern Cornbelt firmed to $10.90/unit rail-DEL, up $0.50/unit from October.

Western Cornbelt:

The phos acid price was quoted at $10.90/unit rail-DEL in the Western Cornbelt for November tons, up from October’s $10.40/unit rail-DEL level.

California:

November pricing for phos acid was pegged at $11.00/unit rail-DEL in California, up $0.50/unit from October, with MGA referenced at $11.20/unit FOB Lathrop.

Pacific Northwest:

Phos acid pricing for November was quoted at $10.50/unit FOB Pocatello, Idaho, and $11.00/unit rail-DEL in the Pacific Northwest, up $0.50/unit from October.